[Plantagenet]

The world could thus see radical increases in oil prices. That alone might be sufficient to curb demand, flattening production for perhaps 10 years.
--Colin Campbell


This is just what we've been living through. Oil rose quickly and has quadrupled since 2000.

Cherry picking time frames is never worthy of even minor topics, let alone reasonable ones, like resource depletion.

The plateau in oil production and the concomitant run up in oil price over the last decade is not "cherry picking time frames." Its what this thread is about ------

[Pops]

You can slice that up and dissemble it til the cows come home, pray to whatever idol of perpetual motion you please and joust with strawmen in every thread here and still all it amounts to whistling past the boneyard.

That depends on what and how each individual is affected by a gradually lessening supply, and a gradually increasing price. I certainly don't consider commuting to work without burning liquid fuels to be either whistling, whistling past a boneyard, or any mental image designed to reinforce scare mongering of peak oil, be it in 2005 as proclaimed by the experts, or in 2008, or now, or in the future. Certainly the number of predictions just aren't even worth listening to any more, I agree with you that it just isn't worth the effort.

Those price signals you have referenced driving down waste of liquid fuels in the system is a GOOD thing, and it is about time. The sooner people realize that oil is obsolete, and move on to something else, the better.

You're wrong in at least two places.
First, that gradually decreasing supply will equal gradually increasing price.
Look at the chart below:



Supply is constrained after 04, increasing only fractions of a percent per year but the price fluctuates wildly over a $100/bbl range because it isn't based on supply.

Once supply is constrained, price is based on demand.

Even in an increasing supply situation like the last few years, a demand shortfall or even spare capacity loss causes a relatively large price increase. It is pretty obvious that a gradual decrease in supply won't equal a gradual increase in price but even more wildly fluctuating prices as waste is trimmed, then capacity, then waste....


Which brings me to your second mistake. I once met a guy who pumped septic tanks, his business card read:
It may be shit to you
but it's my bread and butter.

Simply put, one man's waste is another's income. You are as yet unaffected and so act cavalier because you've convinced yourself that no one else has been affected, and what's more, that no one will be affected in the future because, well, because you've not been affected. 'till you are.

In all your incarnations here you've poked the same strawman: PO-Is-Past-&-I-Feel-Fine. But as much as you try to convince yourself that peak oil is past or that multiple peaks have happened and the world hasn't ended, you still haven't come to terms with the simple fact that we've never seen a more or less constant decline of one or two or five percent per year more or less forever. Recent history shows it almost certainly won't be gradual though.

But you keep on whistling that tune, it'll keep your boogyman away, 'till it doesn't.

[Keith_McClary]

Fortunately the beauty of peak, or plateau, oil is that it means there is still plenty around, we are now making it out of other substances (thus bringing about arguements about what oil "is" among the faithful), and we now don't have to rely on crude based fuels to power our daily commuting needs, and the crude based liquid fuels can be tasked to doing important stuff, like running tractors and whatnot.

He seems to be talking about "all liquids", not just crude going into decline:

His estimated planetary oil production in 2012 is an average 88 million barrels per day.

[seenmostofit]

The world could thus see radical increases in oil prices. That alone might be sufficient to curb demand, flattening production for perhaps 10 years.
--Colin Campbell


This is just what we've been living through. Oil rose quickly and has quadrupled since 2000.

Cherry picking time frames is never worthy of even minor topics, let alone reasonable ones, like resource depletion.

The plateau in oil production and the concomitant run up in oil price over the last decade is not "cherry picking time frames." Its what this thread is about ------

The thread title says world oil production peaked, as apparently either now or past tense if you read the title as it was written. And I have noted that it would nice if it DID peak so it wouldn't keep coming up...like it did in 2005 (Simmons, Ruppert, Deffeyes) or 2006 (Fatih) or 2008 (TOD) or now. At this rate, we'll hit the EIA estimate of 2037 and still be talking about the good ol' days of the 2005 peak, or still plateauing, or goodness knows something worse, like even higher production.

As far as the price runup in the past decade, of course it is cherry picking time frames, the real price of oil today is about the same as it was at a point in time during the late 70's. See how easy it is to do? We should all probably stop because it is about as conducive as Simmons and the silly bet he made. For those of us paying attention, we should be using less and less anyway. Besides, Colin Campbell apparently thinks $100 is the new price, and will balance against demand. So don't sweat it, the "expert" has spoken.

[seenmostofit]

Simply put, one man's waste is another's income. You are as yet unaffected and so act cavalier because you've convinced yourself that no one else has been affected, and what's more, that no one will be affected in the future because, well, because you've not been affected. 'till you are.

Not at all Pops. I haven't "convinced" myself of anything, every day I have to dodge F350's carrying a single person through traffic jams. Monster trucks roam American streets, transoceanic shipping keeps shipping, planes keep flying, and the world continues to adapt to peak oil. Some of us better than others obviously, and if we want to then feel a little bit superior about it...well...why not? It isn't the poor countries of the world which will solve peak oil, it is the Americas and Europes and Japans, all trying out different modes of transport and whatnot, building better batteries, building windfarms onshore and off, turning the natural gas cliff into the natural gas surplus, continuing to find new oil in old oil fields, new oil in new oil fields, each company and country looking for the best business model or plan.

Nigeria didn't dream up, design, manufacture and distribute the Volt, GM did.

But you keep on whistling that tune, it'll keep your boogyman away, 'till it doesn't.

Versus those still recycling Malthusian catastrophes, centuries later?

[Plantagenet]

the real price of oil today is about the same as it was at a point in time during the late 70's.

So what? You can't cherry pick a brief period in the 1970s and ignore the fact that there were two quite different causes for the high oil prices in these two different time periods.

The price of oil has reached higher levels from 2008 on then at at any time since the 1870s. The price spike in the 1970s was almost as high, but it occurred as a consequence of the Arab oil EMBARGO, when there was a shortage of oil after the Arab states cut off exports to the west. There is no other period of sustained multi-year high prices similar to today at any time during the past 140 years.

There is no Arab oil boycott today. KSA is pumping full out, Iraq is at record levels, and even Iran is still shipping large amounts of oil to India, China, and Japan. Nonetheless, we are at near record levels for oil prices as the oil supply is constrained and can't grow beyond current levels.

[seenmostofit]

the real price of oil today is about the same as it was at a point in time during the late 70's.

So what? You can't cherry pick a brief period in the 1970s and ignore the fact that there were two quite different causes for the high oil prices in these two different time periods.

If you can do it, I can as well. The difference between then and now being that then, we were being lectured on how we were running out,needing a Saudia Arabia every 3 years, we needed to conserve natural gas and use coal and build nukes, it was horrifying. Nowadays? Tight supply/demand conditions caused by growing economies. Quite true, different reasons, one much more scary than the other.

The price of oil has reached higher levels from 2008 on then at at any time since the 1870s. The price spike in the 1970s was almost as high, but it occurred as a consequence of the Arab oil EMBARGO, when there was a shortage of oil after the Arab states cut off exports to the west. There is no other period of sustained multi-year high prices similar to today at any time during the past 140 years.

Again, you are picking time frames to make a point. So...we have had consistently high prices. Okay. How many other times in history have those same conditions been met? And during how many of those times have we had the ability to NOT use crude to go about our daily business, and to find fuel for that from something like...a windmill or solar panel?

The adaption to these higher prices (which on a nominal basis I am perfectly willing to admit can be quite the pain in the butt for someone who chooses not to adapt to them) has been going on EXACTLY because of these higher prices, and that is a GOOD thing. Certainly you aren't going to get a fat ass American to bicycle, scooter, motorcycle, EV, bus or train to work without some type of economic stimulus. Peak oil was supposed to be more than some general inconvenience at the pump, and has been quite disappointing in that regard.

There is no Arab oil boycott today. KSA is pumping full out, Iraq is at record levels, and even Iran is still shipping large amounts of oil to India, China, and Japan. Nonetheless, we are at near record levels for oil prices as the oil supply is constrained and can't grow beyond current levels.

Excellent. Now if we can just get the country to notice that $4/gal should stop us from buying monster trucks and creating traffic jams, we would be getting somewhere. We need European prices, the sooner the better. I worry that new supply from places like North Dakota are just going to grind us right back into the fat, dumb and happy motoring world because just because it is more expensive than it was during the early parts of the last decade, it is still nowhere near expensive enough to matter.

[dsula]

We need European prices, the sooner the better.

That would still be way to cheap. Europa's freeways are still full of traffic.
I'm hoping for $20/gallon. Doesn't look like I'm getting it soon, though.

[Plantagenet]

Again, you are picking time frames to make a point.

Comparing the price of oil today to every prior price back to 1870 is picking time frames?

[seenmostofit]

Again, you are picking time frames to make a point.

Comparing the price of oil today to every prior price back to 1870 is picking time frames?

Perspective matters. When talking about the price of oil, it is necessary, and reasonable, to understand the entire history of the commodity. Otherwise people who aren't familiar with the gasoline scare of 1916 might think that oil scarcity is only a modern invention.

[Plantagenet]

Comparing the price of oil today to every prior price back to 1870 is picking time frames?

Perspective matters. When talking about the price of oil, it is necessary, and reasonable, to understand the entire history of the commodity. Otherwise people who aren't familiar with the gasoline scare of 1916 might think that oil scarcity is only a modern invention.

The "gasoline scare of 1916" occurred more recently than 1870. In fact, the whole petroleum industry postdates 1870. My comparison of the modern price for oil with all the prior prices for oil back to 1870 IS the entire history of the commodity.

Are you dyslexic or something? How come you don't know that 1916 occurred between 1870 and the present?

[seenmostofit]

Comparing the price of oil today to every prior price back to 1870 is picking time frames?

Perspective matters. When talking about the price of oil, it is necessary, and reasonable, to understand the entire history of the commodity. Otherwise people who aren't familiar with the gasoline scare of 1916 might think that oil scarcity is only a modern invention.

The "gasoline scare of 1916" occurred more recently than 1870. In fact, the whole petroleum industry postdates 1870. My comparison of the modern price for oil with all the prior prices for oil back to 1870 IS the entire history of the commodity.

Are you dyslexic or something? How come you don't know that 1916 occurred between 1870 and the present?

Dyslexic? Where did you learn your oil commodity history, at a peak oil website?

Drake hit his well in 1859, the oil industry predates even that, how much depends on who's view of who was first you believe. Pesky Azerbaijanians, hilljacks from West Virginia, Kentucky salt water well drillers, they all want a piece of the action. All of it prior to 1859 even.

Prior to 1870, oil fields and attendant infrastructure had already been burned by troops to deprive the enemy of the commodity (the nasty Rebs torched the wells, tanks, loaded barges of oil and even derricks of the Burning Springs field in about 1863 or so, the blaze could be seen all the way from Parkersburg WV) and it was estimated to be the most destructive raid ever on a northern industrial complex by the south. Industrial complex??!!! But....oil isn't yet a commodity....so how can destroying it count!

Now, the real fiends of the oil business (prior to oil developing a history as a commodity in 1870) were those nasty water well drillers who set the Cumberland river on fire with burning crude. Three decades before Drake and his "you can put the oil in a bathtub because it isn't making much" well those Kentucky boys had a Macondo blowout on their hands which caught the Cumberland river on fire. 1829 or so.

When Rathbone found the oil on Burning Springs run (I have been out there more than once, it is of historical interest for those of us who don't learn from the internetz, great museum in Parkersburg as well, you should stop in if you ever have the chance) he was selling it for some $30/bbl..BEFORE the Civil War started. So now we have a commodity (would you like to adjust that price for inflation for me, let me know if it is anywhere near as the REALLY high price we have today of...oh...$100 or so?) which is being sold for a price, but apparently this can't happen because...there was no history of the commodity before 1870!

Semantics or not, I find all this very confusing.

Haven't you ever wondered where Drake got his drilling tools to drill for oil? He certainly didn't invent them himself...which meant...ummmm...let me shake off my evening internetz....someone else must have been using drilling tools like those even earlier! So now we have well drilling infrastructure and tools, but...no commodity to drill for! Well, except of course it even had a price back then.

Here is Forbes, listing the price of oil...maybe non-commodity oil??..back to 1861.

http://www.forbes.com/2005/11/01/oil-pr ... flash.html

As they say in the movies, "Sir, would you care to revise your statement?".

[dolanbaker]

Don't you accept the fact that at some point production WILL reach a point that it can be called "the peak" and that high point in production will never be matched or exceeded ever again.

All those historical "peaks" are local ones, this one is global, a combination of all the fields on the planet.

Why would a company that specialises in enhanced recovery be calling the top? Chances are , they see a lot of work coming their way to "smooth the downward slope" as more and more fields need enhanced recovery to continue producing (at a slower rate).

[Plantagenet]

Drake hit his well in 1859, the oil industry predates even that

Comparing the price of whale oil and kerosene distilled from coal to the modern global oil industry is silly. The modern oil era begins about 1870, as a consequence of the "Pennsylvania Oil Rush" between 1865 and 1870 when, for the first time, numerous oil wells were drilled. As Wikipedia says: "After 1871, the oil industry was well established."

The data is clear----the oil price in the 140+ years since 1870---in constant dollars---- has NEVER been higher then in the last few years. The current high prices are unique in the history of the oil age. We are living in a period of tight market conditions as global oil production has been on a plateau since 2005 while global oil demand continues to slowly grow.

oil prices in constant dollars have been higher during the last few years than at any time in the last 140 years

[Revi]

Oil prices are underneath everything, but there are other ways of getting people off of oil. The price can go up so that most people can't afford it. This is happening in the poor countries of the world where they use little motorcycles and cook on gas stoves. They won't be able to afford what little they use very soon. The other thing that can be done is to shut off large areas, thereby freeing up oil for places that can pay for it. This could happen to a lot of places. I'll bet Somalia uses almost no oil now. In India when they don't have enough electricity they do something called load shedding where they cut off the poor areas in order to keep the rich ones running. That kind of thing could be done with oil as well. People who are unemployed use a lot less gas. Especially if their cars get repossessed.
We are at the end of the game. It's a lot like Monopoly. Most of us are just creeping around the board now hoping not to land on anything and hoping we'll hit free parking or get thrown in jail. There are a few people who have Boardwalk and Park Place, but they are beginning to see their business slow down because even the rich aren't as rich as they used to be.

[Pops]

I don't agree, Revi, I think it's just the opposite, the rich folks are being priced out of the market because the utility of driving to the Quik Sac for a bottle of Evian is less than that of powering the pump to provide drinking water to the poor world village.

[seenmostofit]

Drake hit his well in 1859, the oil industry predates even that

Comparing the price of whale oil and kerosene distilled from coal to the modern global oil industry is silly. The modern oil era begins about 1870, as a consequence of the "Pennsylvania Oil Rush" between 1865 and 1870 when, for the first time, numerous oil wells were drilled. As Wikipedia says: "After 1871, the oil industry was well established."

Planty, you little weasel. Cowboy up already, not only is Wiki incompetent on the topic of peak oil, it apparently didn't go to a liberry either to find out that oil as a military target was already ranking right up there as the biggest industrial targets an army could wipe out during the single most destructive American war in our countries history. Apparently before the industry was "established", whatever the hell Wiki thinks that means.

Is that really what you reached for when you claimed that oil wasn't a commodity before 1870? Wasn't it you who was bashing someone else for being a product of public education? And now you want pretend something is true because it is in Wiki? Like I said...be careful when the sum of what you know comes from the internetz.

The data is clear----the oil price in the 140+ years since 1870---in constant dollars---- has NEVER been higher then in the last few years.

So you calculated in 2012 dollars that Rathbone was selling his oil for (before it was a commodity) and it WASN'T higher than the $100 or so it is today? Wow....not much inflation then, for $30 oil before the Civil War started to not even hit $100. You didn't use Wiki for your CPI figures did you?

The current high prices are unique in the history of the oil age. We are living in a period of tight market conditions as global oil production has been on a plateau since 2005 while global oil demand continues to slowly grow.

oil prices in constant dollars have been higher during the last few years than at any time in the last 140 years

Certainly the price of oil is high (certainly not as high as what Rathbone was getting for his, but until Wiki figures out the cost inflators I will assume you can't calculate it for yourself) but fortunately the transition to something else has been happening over these past few years. The key point being, prices are high enough to drive substitution in certain industries and uses, and with a little luck, peak oil effects and another $2/gal increase in gasoline prices in the US and there will be even more.

As we learned during the 2008 recession, demand destruction is a much more powerful force than field declines. Hit even a sheeple in the pocketbook, and even they will take action.

[Pops]

As they say in the movies, "Sir, would you care to revise your statement?".

It may come as a surprise but we are beyond 2009.

In fact, the yearly moving average price of Brent crude has indeed exceeded $108/bbl for 18 months, since March 30, 2011.

On to your next diversion.

[seenmostofit]

As they say in the movies, "Sir, would you care to revise your statement?".

It may come as a surprise but we are beyond 2009.

Oh boy. And oil was a commodity before 1870 too.

In fact, the yearly moving average price of Brent crude has indeed exceeded $108/bbl for 18 months, since March 30, 2011.

On to your next diversion.

Plant started the diversion, not me. While Brent is a wildly exciting metric, the one we have going back much farther is something else. While the Europeans might be wildly excited about using Brent as a metric, it is but a youngling compared to the one started here in the land of original oil, the Seven Sisters, and the ingenuity which made the development of nearly all other oil resources possible. Why the fascination with Brent, when the greatest oil resources known on the planet are priced in something else, and are all western hemisphere? Well...until someone estimates the unconventional oil sizes in Russia anyway.

[Pops]

Brent is the benchmark for 2/3rds of world oil trades, that's probably why the Forbes chart you cited is based on Brent from '86 onward.