279 pages of hard-core energy related geopolitical analysis for the hard-core geopolitical enthusiasts.
What makes this paper interesting is that it is semi-official background study for EU Commission's Green Paper on energy, done by a Dutch institute on international relations, dated January 2004, and thus offers a peek into what European decision makers may be really thinking now. Paper is surprisingly candid in it's realpolitik approach, especially the "Regions and Empires" storyline, and with only minimum of diplomatic political correctness (which is still quite much, of course).
Among many other things it includes a detailed discussion (pp. 228-236) about petroeuro, pretty much confirming Willian Clark's thesis about Petrodollar recycling (and by implication warfare to protect that):
3.11 Conclusion
Pondering on a currency switch, if possible, would mean the choice between two risks. Either such a switch is not made, and European consumers and some producer states remain susceptible to currency
risks. However if such a switch is made, and energy import deals are made in euros, there is risk concerning the relative value of the euro. The implications of a currency switch in Europe’s energy trade could even reverberate in the American current account balance, and will have significant implications for the national banks of countries that would start to trade energy products in euros, as their national banks will have to build up considerable reserves of this currency.
The US current account deficit has only be sustained thus far because of huge amounts of foreign investments entering the US and because other governments are acquiring large reserves of US dollars. Last year US trading partner countries added $220 billion to their reserves. US demand can only be sustained because of this international demand for the US dollar. If, however, demand for the dollar falls, and consequently the dollar depreciates in comparison to the euro, this will have grave consequences for the economies of the Eurozone. Such a decline in demand for dollars can be discerned already, as can be seen in the recent appreciation of the euro, and could be exacerbated by a currency switch in the energy
trade between Europe and the energy producing countries. As a commentator stated in the Financial Times (July 2nd 2003), “It follows that [..] (if) there is an adjustment of the US current account it will be
suffered largely by the Eurozone, which will be forced into continuing stagnation, or worse.”
PO is not discussed directly, but a "supply gap" by 2010 because of lack of investments in developing fields in production countries, or because of geopolitical tensions is discussed. Paper uses mostly IEA and BP data,
Haven't read the whole thing yet, but the main recommendations for EU's energy security seem to be (in addition to increasing energy efficiency to curb indreasing depencency of imports discussed elsewhere) to actively continue efforts to economically integrate neighbouring producing countries with EU, in the South Mediterranaen through Euro-Med FTA (remember Qaddafi getting red carpet treatment in Brussels?), and in east integrating Russia with European Economic Space or some other similar accomodation, and Turkish membership providing more secure access to Middle East energy resources.
