[galacticsurfer]

a 28 page tract on rise and fall of empires in history - proposed 250 year cycle from outburst to decadence and decline - written in 1976. Available here

Funnily he mentions height of Arab civilization with strong women's rights, pop music stars very prominent, sexual immorality, introduction of 5 day work week, etc. leading to destruction of their society as typical state of affairs in that declining empire phase just like we have now. Eye opening analysis.

[dsula]

on page 28:

decadence is marked by
defensivness
pessimism
materialism
frivolity
an influx of foreigners
welfare state
weakening of religion

It ain't looking good for the west, with or without peak-oil.

[PrestonSturges]

Let us not forget that the Nazis came into power claiming that these were the specific problems that they were going to solve:

on page 28:
decadence is marked by
defensivness
pessimism
materialism
frivolity
an influx of foreigners
welfare state
weakening of religion
It ain't looking good for the west, with or without peak-oil.

So when you see someone saying that they have identified these problems in modern society, make sure his "solutions" aren't just fascism in disguise.

[rangerone314]

Let us not forget that the Nazis came into power claiming that these were the specific problems that they were going to solve:

on page 28:
decadence is marked by
defensivness
pessimism
materialism
frivolity
an influx of foreigners
welfare state
weakening of religion
It ain't looking good for the west, with or without peak-oil.

So when you see someone saying that they have identified these problems in modern society, make sure his "solutions" aren't just fascism in disguise.

Well maybe the Nazis were monsters who couldn't solve the problems and created more problems, but that puts them a step beyond our current BAU system which can't even acknowledge the problems.

[PrestonSturges]

So many people are confused about the difference between Fascism and Communism.

Fascism said that Germany for instance had suffered a failure of spirit, will, and blood.

They blamed everything on a spiritual failure instead of a structural failure.

People claiming there is a national spiritual failure are the ones most likely to perpetuate and profit from the structural failure.

[rangerone314]

If empires have average life of 250 years than that means the US has about until the year 2026...

[Newfie]

Neelyang,

Welcome aboard.

It is an interesting 12 year old discussion. Some of the posters in that thread are still here.

[evilgenius]

History doesn't work that way. You can't assume anything about the future because of the past. Too much of history is just what happened! Those things surrounded previous empires. But is this even an empire? You have to cram it into the paradigm, sideways. It already is too dissimilar, even if history is like a cookie cutter.

[Pops]

Empire, civilization, etc seem to me to grow because of a certain new technology based on a certain resource. Say rainfall/irrigation, or trees/boats or simply planting/grains. The downfall of civilisations come about because either the technology overtaken or the resource depleted.

Somewhere in Peru I think there is evidence of canals creeping ever higher along the hillside to plant more and more land as the irrigated land became to saline from the runoff water, until they couldn't go any higher.

Maybe the same happened with the building of fortress walls, initially it allowed growth by defense but eventually the opposing technology of trebuchet overcame the walls.

Then there is fossil fuel and ICE.