[BrownDog]

Add to this, the copper wires will eventually get stolen for scrap.

[ColossalContrarian]

Will we be able to run at least a basic phone infrastructure and very reduced internet? Who will control the content on this net?

The telecom infrastructure is more likely to stay online than the equipment connected to the infrastructure. For example... In plain terms, The internet/intranet would have power longer than the equipment connected to the internet Servers/PC's/Phone's (depending on type of phone). So basically any mission critical Server/Website would stay online but end user PC's not connected to emergency power would shut off.

I did telecom work for a large hospital and I can tell you that all of equipment was connected to Uninteruptible Power Supplies. Each batter could run unplugged for 2 hours, each telco closet had one UPS and there were two closets per floor. The UPS's were also plugged into emergency power which was basically a diesel generator -not sure how long it could run but I remember hearing something like three days.

[JoeCoal]

The system I work for has a 24-hour diesel generator backup for our Head End (main office) and each "Node" (neighborhood) has 1 or more battery backup power supplies that will run about 5-10 hours or so depending on the load.

We also have 2 dozen gas generators to backup the battery backups in case of a prolonged power outage. (This is for 250+ units...) Oh, my God, it's Fractional Reserve Power!

Anyway, we'd be toast in about half a day...

[Lighthouse]

Does anyone know how much energy (kWh) our existing telco infrastructure including attached peripheral systems is using at the moment? I need this information for I book I'm working on, but it seems my research leads me nowhere. Someone, somewhere must have done a thesis on this subject. I know the data is out there, but I can't find it.

For the Internet it's a bit more complicated. How many servers are online? How many routers, modems, wireless base stations etc . I think it does not make sense to add the clients in offices and homes to this number even some of them are also serving content ...

I am absolutely sure this number will blow my socks off ....

[SILENTTODD]

Does anyone know how much energy (kWh) our existing telco infrastructure including attached peripheral systems is using at the moment? I need this information for I book I'm working on, but it seems my research leads me nowhere. Someone, somewhere must have done a thesis on this subject. I know the data is out there, but I can't find it.

For the Internet it's a bit more complicated. How many servers are online? How many routers, modems, wireless base stations etc . I think it does not make sense to add the clients in offices and homes to this number even some of them are also serving content ...

I am absolutely sure this number will blow my socks off ....

Not to be facetious , but just say “Lots”. I don’t know if any accurate figure actually exists. But to repeat, for your question, it’s never going to be the power consumption of the facilities. Its going to be the energy consumption of their Maintenance that’s going to matter!!

[tsakach]

Does anyone know how much energy (kWh) our existing telco infrastructure including attached peripheral systems is using at the moment?

No not at the moment. A study published in 2001 found telco use was less than one percent (<1%) of total electricity consumption.

"The latest analysis shows that the total electricity used by office and network equipment is about 74 TeraWatt-hours (TWh) per year, about two percent of the total electricity use in the U.S. When telephone switching equipment and manufacturing energy for semiconductors and computers is included, the total goes up to about three percent of all electricity use in the U.S."

Research finds Computer-Related use to be Overrated

Some researchers think the net may actually be helping to drive down overall energy demand:

Joseph Romm, a former assistant secretary at the U.S. Department of Energy, notes that from 1992 to 1996 total energy demand grew at about 2.4 percent a year in the U.S., during a period when the gross domestic product was growing at a rate of 3.2 percent a year. But from 1996 to 2000, when the Net boom was really taking off, the gross domestic product grew at an average of 4 percent a year while energy demand grew at a rate of only 1 percent. In other words, the growth in energy demand was far below the growth in the overall economy; as the economy grew hotter and hotter the rate of increase in the demand for energy actually slowed.

Salon.com: Turn of the Internet

[Lighthouse]

Hey, thx, that helps a lot!

It seems that you are right. It is not a problem to power the telecom infrastructure, the problem will be in the maintenance of the infrastructure, which consumes more energy that the telecom systems themselves

[Doly]

It is not a problem to power the telecom infrastructure, the problem will be in the maintenance of the infrastructure, which consumes more energy that the telecom systems themselves

Maintaining the infrastructure isn't such a big problem. It's insisting on upgrading it all the time what is really costly.

[gg3]

Telecoms expert here; 20+ years in telephony; PBX engineer.

Local telephone infrastructure existed before petroleum and will exist long after. It will always be possible to build, operate, and maintain a local telephone system for a village, town, or city. Worst case scenario, we would be back to manual cordboards and party lines, but it would still work (in the sense of providing basic communications services), and all components could be manufactured with pre-petroleum methods and materials.

The most sensitive maintenance item is outside plant. Overhead cable is rated for 25 - 35 years. Underground cable is rated for 125 - 135 years. Theft of cable for scrap copper will not be a problem in areas where people care enough to protect it, i.e. neighborhood watch. Copper in telephone cables is recycled indefinitely, so copper shortage will not be an issue.

The next most sensitve item is switching infrastructure. Central office switches are designed with 40-year service life and minimal need to replace components. Component manufacture for CO switches will be a priority as long as any type of electronics industry exists. If civilization ever breaks to the point where there is no electronics industry, then we are back to manual cordboards.

After that, the rest is easy. Cable inside buildings lasts as long as the buildings. Telephone sets can be recycled indefinitely.

Power consumption is minimal considering the number of subscribers served. I don't have the figures for CO switches ready at hand but could go find them; the point is that as long as a source of energy is available, telco COs will be one of the highest priorities for it. CO batteries are typically good for three days at a time, and backup diesel generators for one to three weeks from on-site fuel supply; biodiesel will meet the latter need indefinitely.

Long distance transmission infrastructure is a more complex situation. Here we run into the issues of microwave relay or fiber optic trunking. It may be that certain remote areas lose their connectivity to the outside world and are on local service only. However, even in the USA there were local systems that did not connect to the outside world as recently as the late 1970s into the early 1980s (I even saw one first-hand). It would take a truly spectacular crash for long distance transmission to collapse and become unrepairable. More likely, facilities would degrade to a point where supply and demand would equalize at a higher price point, and that would be sufficient to maintain the infrastructure to carry the traffic at that price point. Think of the old days when a cross-country call cost a dollar for the first three minutes and 25-cents each additional minute.

Presently we are seeing the telcos and the cableTVcos trying to get into each others' businesses, and the result is the costly bastardization of both of their technical architectures. In a sufficient crisis situation, these industries could for the sake of efficiency be re-regulated to each stick to their own core activity (i.e. cable: broadcast; and telco: switched). At the other end of the spectrum, a deregulated market situation would probably settle down to three major providers in large town and city markets, and one provider or at most two in smaller towns.

When my pals & I buy land and establish a community, we will have our own telco infrastructure. I have switching equipment in hand now, with capacity for over 100 lines and redundancy to provide component replacements for an effectively indefinite lifespan. Outside cable will be undergrounded and redundant materials kept on hand to replace spans as needed. Inside cable will be installed by our crew to high spec so it will last as long as the houses and other buildings. Everything we do will be built to last and be repairable with stockpiled materials. We will run our own ISP as well, using the same cable infrastructure and switches & servers on site (this is another member's department, outside my expertise). (I'm also not certain what we'll do for radio and television; probably a combination of satellite feed and common antenna, and some capability for local content origination. Even though some people like to say they never watch TV, it's still a useful utility to have in a community.)

---

Re. the question of who will control content: Hey!, who says anyone has to control content? How'bout the idea that no one "controls" it but the market freely provides whatever content people want to produce and receive (with the obvious exceptions for kiddie porn and snuff movies, which are not "consenting adult" participants)?

[Lighthouse]

...

Re. the question of who will control content: Hey!, who says anyone has to control content? How'bout the idea that no one "controls" it but the market freely provides whatever content people want to produce and receive (with the obvious exceptions for kiddie porn and snuff movies, which are not "consenting adult" participants)?

I'm with you on that one but I was more thinking of governments taking control of the rest of the existing internet content for obvious reasons after TSHTF.

[SILENTTODD]

Telecoms expert here; 20+ years in telephony; PBX engineer.

Local telephone infrastructure existed before petroleum and will exist long after. It will always be possible to build, operate, and maintain a local telephone system for a village, town, or city. Worst case scenario, we would be back to manual cordboards and party lines, but it would still work (in the sense of providing basic communications services), and all components could be manufactured with pre-petroleum methods and materials.

The most sensitive maintenance item is outside plant. Overhead cable is rated for 25 - 35 years. Underground cable is rated for 125 - 135 years. Theft of cable for scrap copper will not be a problem in areas where people care enough to protect it, i.e. neighborhood watch. Copper in telephone cables is recycled indefinitely, so copper shortage will not be an issue.

The next most sensitve item is switching infrastructure. Central office switches are designed with 40-year service life and minimal need to replace components. Component manufacture for CO switches will be a priority as long as any type of electronics industry exists. If civilization ever breaks to the point where there is no electronics industry, then we are back to manual cordboards.

After that, the rest is easy. Cable inside buildings lasts as long as the buildings. Telephone sets can be recycled indefinitely.

Power consumption is minimal considering the number of subscribers served. I don't have the figures for CO switches ready at hand but could go find them; the point is that as long as a source of energy is available, telco COs will be one of the highest priorities for it. CO batteries are typically good for three days at a time, and backup diesel generators for one to three weeks from on-site fuel supply; biodiesel will meet the latter need indefinitely.

Long distance transmission infrastructure is a more complex situation. Here we run into the issues of microwave relay or fiber optic trunking. It may be that certain remote areas lose their connectivity to the outside world and are on local service only. However, even in the USA there were local systems that did not connect to the outside world as recently as the late 1970s into the early 1980s (I even saw one first-hand). It would take a truly spectacular crash for long distance transmission to collapse and become unrepairable. More likely, facilities would degrade to a point where supply and demand would equalize at a higher price point, and that would be sufficient to maintain the infrastructure to carry the traffic at that price point. Think of the old days when a cross-country call cost a dollar for the first three minutes and 25-cents each additional minute.

Presently we are seeing the telcos and the cableTVcos trying to get into each others' businesses, and the result is the costly bastardization of both of their technical architectures. In a sufficient crisis situation, these industries could for the sake of efficiency be re-regulated to each stick to their own core activity (i.e. cable: broadcast; and telco: switched). At the other end of the spectrum, a deregulated market situation would probably settle down to three major providers in large town and city markets, and one provider or at most two in smaller towns.

When my pals & I buy land and establish a community, we will have our own telco infrastructure. I have switching equipment in hand now, with capacity for over 100 lines and redundancy to provide component replacements for an effectively indefinite lifespan. Outside cable will be undergrounded and redundant materials kept on hand to replace spans as needed. Inside cable will be installed by our crew to high spec so it will last as long as the houses and other buildings. Everything we do will be built to last and be repairable with stockpiled materials. We will run our own ISP as well, using the same cable infrastructure and switches & servers on site (this is another member's department, outside my expertise). (I'm also not certain what we'll do for radio and television; probably a combination of satellite feed and common antenna, and some capability for local content origination. Even though some people like to say they never watch TV, it's still a useful utility to have in a community.)

---

R

Really? I’m a DS0/DS1 provisioning tester with AT&T/SBC. What Planet do you live on? I work in Sunny California and we can barely keep things going right now! Have you ever be in out in the field when its raining? All shorts of shit starts happening. Provisioning (new orders) shut down because all of our installers and splicers have time to do is repair (circuits down) in their big gas hungry trucks (and remember this is Sunny California). And of course you as Telco expert know they have to spend half an hour each time they go in to a manhole blowing it out because of Methane! hmm can you do that without an blower? I can only imagine what happens back east with rain and snow storms, let alone Hurricanes! My boss who worked in Connecticut says it’s lots worse.

You obviously have never worked in the real Telco environment or you wouldn’t be making such Ignorant statements! Try doing my job sometime when it’s raining!

[Doly]

You obviously have never worked in the real Telco environment or you wouldn’t be making such Ignorant statements! Try doing my job sometime when it’s raining!

Your job may not be easy, but the question is: is it doable with little oil? Maybe I missed something that you said.

[SILENTTODD]

Your job may not be easy, but the question is: is it doable with little oil? Maybe I missed something that you said.

The short answer is No. The Telco as we know it today, did not exist before oil. You might go back to telegraphs, but that's not the Internet!

[gg3]

Todd, I work in the East Bay, California, and one of the things I do on new installs is turn up PRI circuits, so chances are I've spoken with someone in your location recently. Peek-a-boo!:-)

I've been in this industry since Strowger (step-by-step) and Crossbar switches were current, and I can troubleshoot switching and transmission issues -accurately- by ear. I've designed stuff that has been incorporated in the PBX & voicemail platforms made by a manufacturer that has > 40% of the PBX market in line size 20 to 100 extensions, and whose name is literally a household word. Most of the stuff I designed for those machines is telecommuter-related, and now it's in the platform for their entire global market. After I drop dead, Saint Peter might fill me in on how many cars I managed to take off the road with those features:-)

In point of fact I know well the outside plant problems up here. I didn't feel like badmouthing AT&T/SBC because a) a certain amount of it is inevitable in any urban area, b) your field techs are generally smart & capable, and c) as we say where I work, "technicians don't blame, they fix stuff."

It bugs me to no end when people badmouth the techs as if the trouble cases are their fault or as if everything is supposed to be fixed yesterday, and I do not let my clients get away with badmouthing your techs either.

A few years ago, we could count on clients on Market Street area of SF going down as soon as rainy season hit. Ground crosses were so common it wasn't even funny.

Earlier this year we had an absolute nightmare of a time with a bunch of outside plant issues for a particularly picky client in Fruitvale. It took three visits from your field crews to track all of it down. Two of the lines in question had intermittent high-impedance shorts due to rain, such that they would temporarily conduct when ringing current was applied. The obvious clue for this one was, caller hears half a ringback tone followed immediately by busy tone. Sometimes it would be half a ringback tone followed by a scratch, click, and disconnect.

Another thing that really pisses me off: When we get one of those cases, and the client blames it on the PBX and doesn't understand, or doesn't want to understand, that it's an outside plant problem. You probably know what it's like to deal with pain-in-the-ass cases who blame stuff on you that's outside your control. We get more than our share of that crap every time the rainy season starts and I enjoy it about as much as a case of diarrhea.

BTW, I know well about provisioning going all to hell when the rain starts. Simple line adds get backed up for two weeks. We handle all the AT&T/SBC orders for our clients at no cost to them for the simple reason that we want 'em done correctly and "civilians" don't know how to place orders propertly. So we get five to ten days out, on orders that are normally handled two days out, and clients love that about as much as diarrhea too. But we also explain to them that repairs come before installs, and they grit their teeth and deal with it.

In fact I never knew that the underground crews needed to blow out the methane before they could go down the manholes. Stands to reason though. I've been on the interconnect side all my life so I never worked outside plant except for a few minor spans (direct burial and overhead between buildings) in the context of PBX installs.

BTW, Connecticut was generally OK when I was there. I worked on Ericsson crossbar machines back in the early 80s and even the rural plant was in good shape in those days. Lightning was the thing that everyone dreaded of course, but I don't recall any cases where switches got burned. Sorry to hear that the place went from SNET to snot.

Re. the gas-hungry trucks: At the turn of the last century, field crews typically went out on horse/wagons, and even on bicycles. Surely you've seen those pictures of guys laden down with open-conductor wire and wooden-cased local battery magneto telephone sets. Not a fun way to get around but it could be done again in urban areas if needed. Bicycle trailers. In point of fact I did that experiment about 15 years ago to see how it would work. It worked. It was a hot sweaty pain in the butt but the work got done. Nowadays it would be pedal/electric hybrids, see also the Twike.

Meanwhile let's please not re-create the old Bell/Interconnect flame wars here. I could tell you my share of stories from those days when the Bell guys would deliberately vandalize the inside cable facilities in buildings that were going over to interconnect key systems & PBXs: 25-pair cables cut off flush with the walls and suchlike. Understood that we on the interconnect side were unwelcome competition, but in those days it really did seem that deregulation was going to make things better overall. We expected that overall quality would rise. Instead what happened was that the technology got better but the foof-factor also rose like methane at a bad restaurant, and reliability overall took a huge hit.

For example when computer network people try to stick their fingers into the telephones. And clients who want to treat their PBX as a subspecies of their computer network. We call that "civilian interference." Inevitable result is the quality of service goes down the toilet. I'm dealing with a case like that right now. Client company is also a well-known name in their industry, and they insist on having their desktop support guys handle routine adds/moves/changes on the PBX, and of course it's all gone to hell and they guy in charge of IT says everyone tells him the phone system stinks. OTOH when clients take a hands-off approach and call us for everything including extension name changes, we can maintain the equipment to standard and keep the grade of service high and everyone happy.

I truly detest what has happened to transmission standards in the public's mind since cellphones have become commonplace. "Hello, what did you say?, are you still there?" every third sentence. I can demonstrate that the sound quality was better seventy years ago, by simply hooking up a couple of 70-year-old phones (take your choice of Western Electric 202, early WE 302, AE 41, etc., or GPO/UK 164, 232, or 332) to a Strowger PAX switch, and people say "yeah that sounds better than a cellphone." You have to go back to upright desk stands ("candlestick phones") with solid-back transmitters, i.e. 1925 and earlier, to get to the point where hard-wired sounds worse than modern cellular.

Doly, here's the difference of opinions on post-petroleum telecom: Todd is looking at things from the perspective of the maintaining the present types and degrees of technology. I'm looking at it from the perspective of how the network was built from the very beginning when petroleum was not an issue.

I say we can still have telephones post-petroleum but we may have to revert to 1930s technology, and I say that's not impossible. Who's right? Who knows? Only time will tell. Meanwhile my community in the woods will still have a functioning local system, as will any of our neighbors who care to buy in.

[oddone]

From statistics we read that the industrialised world use so and so many mbpd, and we are worried the increased consumption in the emerging world will outpace supply.

My take is that nearly all the oil and other forms of energy used in those countries are to supply "us" with products, and only a small part to supply local demand.

If world economic activity is a good measure of energy use, incl. petroleum, the industrial world account for 80% (?, guesstimate), and hence by proxy we consume 80% of the oil in the world, even if statistics say 50% (onother guesstimate).

Maybe the demand destruction is a grand plan to stop the chindians from thinking they can have the same private car etc. lifestyles as us, and remain our obediant servants. The oil price around 70USD is maybe perfect for that, we can just go on, they can't start...

[ClubOfRomeII]

The oil price around 70USD is maybe perfect for that, we can just go on, they can't start...

The current crude price doesn't appear to be stopping many people from doing much of anything.

[Fergus]

The oil price around 70USD is maybe perfect for that, we can just go on, they can't start...

The current crude price doesn't appear to be stopping many people from doing much of anything.

Well the fact a large portion of oil is made to use things, how come my corner gas station keeps raising its prices.

When we cant get to work to make those things, does it matter how much oil is used just to make things.

The important thing to remember is the cost to the average joe (you and me). When we as humans are effected, it effects everything.

Maybe we should quit making things and use more oil for locomotion? Damn, I should call the government, I just solved peak oil. Stop making things. More oil for gas. Course then we would have locomotion to go places, just nothing to make once we got there.

Theres always a catch.

[ClubOfRomeII]

The oil price around 70USD is maybe perfect for that, we can just go on, they can't start...

The current crude price doesn't appear to be stopping many people from doing much of anything.

Well the fact a large portion of oil is made to use things, how come my corner gas station keeps raising its prices.

In the US, perhaps 25% of all crude used during the day goes to ALL industrial processes? ALL of them? And the corner station keeps raising prices because people keep buying their product.

When we cant get to work to make those things, does it matter how much oil is used just to make things.

I might suggest bicycles, mass transit, heck, walking? My personal favorite is currently scooters. Besides, haven't you heard, most manufacturing is moving out of the US anyway.

The important thing to remember is the cost to the average joe (you and me). When we as humans are effected, it effects everything.

Sure does. Which is why getting everyone started on bicycles, mass transit and walking ( or scooters ) is a good idea to start sooner, rather than later.

Maybe we should quit making things and use more oil for locomotion? Damn, I should call the government, I just solved peak oil. Stop making things. More oil for gas. Course then we would have locomotion to go places, just nothing to make once we got there.

Do you really assume that the poor and silly consumption choices made by Americans related to their mode of transport isn't going to have to change before this is all said and done?

[joewp]

Do you really assume that the poor and silly consumption choices made by Americans related to their mode of transport isn't going to have to change before this is all said and done?

In defense of us American consumers, I have to point out a conversation I heard on CNBC today indicating that a corporation's aim is to invoke irrationality in consumer purchases and uses psychological tricks to accomplish this irrationality in regards to purchasing unneeded goods.

Can you blame us sheep if they're training us to consume endless crap?

[MrBill]

Do you really assume that the poor and silly consumption choices made by Americans related to their mode of transport isn't going to have to change before this is all said and done?

In defense of us American consumers, I have to point out a conversation I heard on CNBC today indicating that a corporation's aim is to invoke irrationality in consumer purchases and uses psychological tricks to accomplish this irrationality in regards to purchasing unneeded goods.

Can you blame us sheep if they're training us to consume endless crap?

Yes!