[jdmartin]

come on guys do the math. bad math is the reason we are in this mess now.

ill give you a hit: there are 60 * 60 *24 seconds in one day

Well if you figure there's somewhere around 82-87 million barrels per day, that would come out to about 1,000 barrels per second. Since there are 86,400 seconds in a day (60 seconds times 60 minutes times 24 hours).

[Jdelagado]

I realize that this question is easy to answer, but i'd like to see how many people will figure it out, and comment on the use of this non-renewable resource that we BURN all day and all night.

GOOD posting.

It really puts oil production/ consumption into perspective when you think about 1,000 barrels not only being extracted from the ground that fast BUT we are just about burning that same amount EVERY SECOND...

Hmmm....

jdelagado

[khebab]

The EIA publishes a weekly report that contains the current crude oil stockpiles and the different oil inputs/outputs (see thread Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports).

In order to compare inventory levels at different points in time, it's necessary to take into account the current demand. A good indicator is the equivalent number of days of forward consumption (DFC) which is simply calulated by dividing the current oil stock and the refinery input. Any supply and demand problem should show up in the DFC numbers.

The historic data can be found on the EIA website:

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twipcrvwall.xls

Below, the curves for the last three years. We can see the impact of this year hurricane season. Curiously, 2005 seems to have been a relatively good year compared to 2003 and 2004 (2003 was historically the worst year and has been the starting year of the current price runnup).



If we plot all the points since 1982 we obtain the following graph:



The number of days have been decreasing almost linearly since 1982. The fitted blue line has the following equation:

Code: Select all

Days= -(Year - 1982) / 2.14 + 29

Which means that we are losing around 10 days of consumption every 20 years (at this speed, the oil stockpile will reach 0 in 2044).

I will try to update this two graphs on a regular basis.

[coyote]

Please pardon my ignorance, but perhaps you could explain this for us laymen types a little further. Days of forward consumption -- does this mean the already produced oil stockpile divided by daily consumption rate? Me not math type -- 'splain please?

(Also, what does 'Historic range' indicate in the first graph? -- thanks)

[lawnchair]

The simpler explanation might be that we've been seeing the oil companies going toward Just-in-time systems. That is, they were confident that they knew how many bbl of crude they'd get 12 weeks from now, so they'd not keep an inventory.

With hurricane disruptions, on again-off again oil from Iraq, Nigeria, and Venezuela, and less easiliy predicted supplies (disgorgements from the SPR and Europe), the companies are holding more buffer, explaining the increase in '05. I suspect the SPR releases are the big blip after the hurricanes. And that's a little interesting in itsself. SPR releases are not always physical, just accounting. Some of that oil, with 'borrowed by Shell' on it, is likely still sitting in domes in Louisiana.

[khebab]

Please pardon my ignorance, but perhaps you could explain this for us laymen types a little further. Days of forward consumption -- does this mean the already produced oil stockpile divided by daily consumption rate?

That's it:
Days of forward consumption= (Stocks) / (Demand)

The primary consumer of oil being refiners, demand is the refinery input (in number of barrels per day).

(Also, what does 'Historic range' indicate in the first graph? -- thanks)

We have the data for every week since 1982, the black lines are the max and the min over the period 1982-2005. The min curve is barely visible because it almost completety coincides with the 2003 curve.

[khebab]

The simpler explanation might be that we've been seeing the oil companies going toward Just-in-time systems. That is, they were confident that they knew how many bbl of crude they'd get 12 weeks from now, so they'd not keep an inventory.

You're probably right. It's expensive to increase our storage capacity in order to keep up with increase in demand and maintain a constant number of Days of forward consumption.

With hurricane disruptions, on again-off again oil from Iraq, Nigeria, and Venezuela, and less easiliy predicted supplies (disgorgements from the SPR and Europe), the companies are holding more buffer, explaining the increase in '05. I suspect the SPR releases are the big blip after the hurricanes. And that's a little interesting in itsself. SPR releases are not always physical, just accounting. Some of that oil, with 'borrowed by Shell' on it, is likely still sitting in domes in Louisiana.

What's missing also is the fraction of heavy vs. light oil within the available stockpiles.

[coyote]

The primary consumer of oil being refiners, demand is the refinery input (in number of barrels per day).

(Also, what does 'Historic range' indicate in the first graph? -- thanks)

We have the data for every week since 1982, the black lines are the max and the min over the period 1982-2005. The min curve is barely visible because it almost completety coincides with the 2003 curve.

OK, i get it now. Thanks!

[frankthetank]

Revised numbers in the DOE’s Energy Information Administration’s January Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) indicate a drop in total US Oil Consumption in 2005 of 0.4% from 20.73 million barrels per day in 2004 to 20.65 million barrels per day in 2005.

Hmmmm...



Demand destruction, peak, ???

So with that in mind, turning to the January Short Term Energy Outlook (Table A5) reveals that while total oil consumption in the US dropped 0.4% in 2005 to 20.65 mbpd, consumption of petroleum for gasoline and distillate fuel oil increased 1% to a combined 13.26 mbpd.

Gasoline demand alone accounts for 44% of petroleum consumption. Gasoline demand rose from 9.11 mbpd in 2004 to 9.14 mbpd in 2005, with a projected rise to 9.45 mbpd by 2007.

Can't stop driving, no matter what the cost!
LINK

[Tanada]

Revised numbers in the DOE’s Energy Information Administration’s January Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) indicate a drop in total US Oil Consumption in 2005 of 0.4% from 20.73 million barrels per day in 2004 to 20.65 million barrels per day in 2005.

Hmmmm...



Demand destruction, peak, ???

So with that in mind, turning to the January Short Term Energy Outlook (Table A5) reveals that while total oil consumption in the US dropped 0.4% in 2005 to 20.65 mbpd, consumption of petroleum for gasoline and distillate fuel oil increased 1% to a combined 13.26 mbpd.

Gasoline demand alone accounts for 44% of petroleum consumption. Gasoline demand rose from 9.11 mbpd in 2004 to 9.14 mbpd in 2005, with a projected rise to 9.45 mbpd by 2007.

Can't stop driving, no matter what the cost!
LINK

It seems to me that for these figures to be correct we have a case for the USA refineries being maxed out and we know there was a shut in period after Katrina, so we increased fuel consumption through additional imports. Importing a barrel of Diesel or Gasoline is a plus, you consume a goodly portion of crude in the refining process so by importing the refined product you can increase consumption while decreasing total imports.

[Tyler_JC]

The last time US oil consumption dropped on a year-year basis was in the 2001 recession.

So if you think that we will continue to see strong growth in the US economy in '06, you are sorely mistaken.

These oil prices are having a big impact. The cost of heating one's home is taking out a massive chunk out of the average's family's budget. Even people who call themselves upper middle class are noticing the pinch.

I think oil consumption may drop again in 2006, leading to a 2007-2008 recession. Factor in the collapse of the housing bubble and a probably decline in the dollar against the free-floating Yuan and a possibly confrontation with Iran...this recession could be worse than any since the 70's.

[lee]

The last time US oil consumption dropped on a year-year basis was in the 2001 recession.

Tyler is right. It can't be normal for consumption to drop when GDP goes up 4.5% or whatever it was.

I noticed this myself. It means that the US market share of this resource went down. Even our absolute share of this resource went down. It could be interpreted as a sign of weakness.

[LadyRuby]

Assuming about 7.59 billion barrels a year, annual U.S. oil consumption would fill about 1,217 50-story buildings that are as wide and deep as a football field. I think this points to the scale of the problem.

[Chuckmak]

Assuming about 7.59 billion barrels a year, annual U.S. oil consumption would fill about 1,217 50-story buildings that are as wide and deep as a football field. I think this points to the scale of the problem.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Lighthouse]

Unfortunately I could not find any reliable date how much energy is consumed by telecommunication systems and the internet. How much energy is necessary to keep the internet alive? Is anyone aware of a reliable study?

What do you think will happen to our communications systems after PO? Will we be able to run at least a basic phone infrastructure and very reduced internet? Who will control the content on this net?

[rogerhb]

Heliograph is sustainable!

[omgwtfbyobbq]

What do I think will happen to the net after PO? Nothing much. Can you create your own net in a post apocalyptic world on the cheap? Sure, but there will be bottle necks due to large drops in population density through some areas, and you'll probably need your own power source in those areas.

[rogerhb]

For a global net think of what will happen to submarine cables/fibers and satellites.

[omgwtfbyobbq]

I'm not sure how quickly the fiber optic lines we have now would degrade, but we could probably push an amplified signal between alaska and russia.

[SILENTTODD]

The main problem is not going to be the power consumed by the facilities, the computers, servers , routers, switches and alike. It’s going to be the maintenance of the Telco facilities. The “new” AT&T (formally the old SBC), Verizon, Quest, and Cable companies of all descriptions, have huge fleets of trucks from small installer vans, to huge tower trucks. They are dispatched every day, in every first world country to maintain the Telco/Cable facilities everywhere. Everyday, even in sunshine weather there are problems these technicians are sent out on to repair. Rain and Snow compound the problems of regular maintenance several times. Let there be a major Snow Storm or (gasp!) Hurricane come through and your out of service from days to months.

I imagine Governments will make the Telco (I’m using this term broadly to cover all wired communication systems) a priority for fuel allotments initially, but how for how long depends on how steep the decline. And don’t tell me “I have a Cell Phone so I don’t have to worry”. All the Cell phones are fed out of Cell Sites that are fed from Telco Central Offices by cable, some of it Fiber, most of it Copper. The Fiber will probably last longer, the Copper Trunks won’t.

It’s not all going to collapse at once (unless of course you currently live in Hurricane Alley , where I think it will eventually go down and never come back up maybe some weekend!) But it will become increasingly difficult to maintain large areas of facilities without regular maintenance. They will go down, and just stay down because there is not the fuel or money to maintain them.

We may be back to a communication system roughly equaling that of 1900 within 15 or 20 years after the start of oil decline. (unless of course some miracle occurs with Fusion Power, or Space Aliens share their technology with us. If I was a betting man, I wouldn’t bet). Yes there will still be some Satellite Communication (for a while, you have to get new Satellites up there!), and a number of Hams will still be able to scrounge a set together. But I think people are going to be astonished how fast this sector will disappear. Much faster than the cars and the roads which were my last 2 questions to the group mind.
Enjoy for the short time it will last for most of us.