[Ferretlover]

... another crack in the dam......

[Zardoz]

Tehran


Kuwait City


Caracas


Baghdad


Moscow


Beijing

And we have the nerve to think of ourselves as an "intelligent species".

[lorenzo]

And we have the nerve to think of ourselves as an "intelligent species".

But isn't inefficiency the greatest luxury of all? We are the only playfully wasteful species.

Potlatch, excessive and lavish giving and wasting... the true essence of being human.

Would life be worth living without fundamentally engaging in excess and in a perpetual potlatch?

The only thing that distinguishes us from beasts and machines, is our capacity to indulge in luxury, playfulness and excess.


I think our oil habits illustrate the most profound finding in modern general economics, namely the importance of the "accursed share".

Georges Bataille: gift logic, excess, potlatch, luxury, accursed share.

Bataille, arguably the most important post-war continental philosopher, should be compulsory reading for all PO people.

[shortonoil]

Armageddon said:

Well, considering most of them including Saudi Arabia think Saudi Arabia will increase their production to 15 mbpd in the near future, No, I do not think they are not taking this as serious as it is. I have a feeling Mexico is aware of their fate though.

According to the NY Times, the economies of many big oil-exporting countries are growing so fast that their need for energy within their borders is crimping how much they can sell abroad, adding new strains to the global oil market. Experts say the sharp growth, if it continues, means several of the world’s most important suppliers may need to start importing oil within a decade to power all the new cars, houses and businesses they are buying and creating with their oil wealth. Indonesia has already made this flip. By some projections, the same thing could happen within five years to Mexico, the No. 2 source of foreign oil for the United States, and soon after that to Iran, the world’s fourth-largest exporter. In some cases, the governments of these countries subsidize gasoline heavily for their citizens, selling it for as little as 7 cents a gallon, a practice that industry experts say fosters wasteful habits. “It is a very serious threat that a lot of major exporters that we count on today for international oil supply are no longer going to be net exporters any more in 5 to 10 years,” said Amy Myers Jaffe, an oil analyst at Rice University. Rising internal demand may offset 40 percent of the increase in Saudi oil production between now and 2010, while more than half the projected decline in Iranian exports will be caused by internal consumption, said a recent report by CIBC World Markets. The report said “soaring internal rates of oil consumption” in Russia, in Mexico and in member states of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would reduce crude exports as much as 2.5 million barrels a day by the end of the decade.

Of course they know about it! Don’t you think these Turkeys read the NY Times once in a while. Now that we know that they know, what is their real agenda? Are they just trying to convince everyone that the Energizer Bunny is real to keep the false economy going, or do they have more sinister plans in store for us. My personal opinion is that they are afraid of losing control if people become too aware, and since a good share of the world’s ruling elite are sociopaths, that doesn’t bode well for us little urchins.

[cube]

...
I view the historical role of subsidised fuel as governments fulfilling their part of an informal understanding with their subjects, namely that while revolt will have harsh consequences, there are other reasons of rational self-interest to acquiesce. Subsidised fuel is appeasement. It is a pragmatic response to local conditions, and it works. However much proponents of free markets dislike it, this status quo has been maintained for a long time to their benefit. Pragmatic thinkers understand that the world contains too many inconvenient facts for a truly free market. Simply put, the first revolution would kill it.
...

Realpolitik!

If subsidized fuel was a government policy limited to only oil producers then the situation wouldn't be as bad. Unfortunately there are oil importing nations that also subsidize fuel: China and India are some big examples.

It's bad enough that we're heading towards a brick wall at freeway speeds but this is the equivalent of installing a turbo-charger to "help" us reach PO even faster.

[shortonoil]

Twilight said:

They could destroy the world with one carefully crafted announcement on that subject more thoroughly than they could with a nuke test - and for free. The fact that they have not done so suggests they are not in fact evil.

I think it has more to do with the vast pile of petro$ they are sitting on than their morality. That nuke announcement would reduce their net worth and buying power by 90% in the time it would take to get a message from the Hague to New York. Whether or not they are evil is a matter for history to resolve, but we can now be very sure that they aren’t stupid.

Subsidised fuel is appeasement. It is a pragmatic response to local conditions, and it works. However much proponents of free markets dislike it, this status quo has been maintained for a long time to their benefit. Pragmatic thinkers understand that the world contains too many inconvenient facts for a truly free market. Simply put, the first revolution would kill it.

Subsidized “anything” has one eventual outcome, shortages. You can’t have your cake and eat it too. Subsidized food produces food shortages, subsidized housing, housing that no one can afford to live in or own. The US housing bust is an example of subsidized housing; interest rates were kept below the rate of inflation so housing skyrocketed upward, now no one can afford to own one. Subsidized oil is just a methodology to keep power brokers in power, ultimately some one has to pay for the subsidy. That someone is always the citizenry.

[RedStateGreen]

Beijing.

Even the commies are drunk on dyno...

I was in Beijing in 1982. NO ONE had a car.

That is really shocking how things have changed.

[FreakOil]

Beijing.

Even the commies are drunk on dyno...

I was in Beijing in 1982. NO ONE had a car.

That is really shocking how things have changed.

Cars are a huge status symbol. People are buying them even though the can't afford them.

Chinese banks have a junk yard full of people defaulting on car loans than they can't pay.

The bad debt on car loans has reached 100 billion yuan ($12.5 billion).

http://www.panasianbiz.com/2006/10/defa ... aches.html

I read earlier that 35% if car loans in Beijing were in default. I also read a shocking pole in which 35% of Beijing women said that they wouldn't marry a man without an apartment and a car. The salary for an entry-level office worker in China is about 1,500RMB to 2,000RMB per month, that's about $200 to $300. I'm sure you've heard about the real estate bubble.

Major cities have invested hugely in public transport. The subways are quite decent, and the bus networks can get you anywhere you need to go.

Somebody mentioned the Export Land Model before in the post. Here's a few links for further reading if anyone's interested:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2767
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/1/27/14471/5832

Regarding fuel subsidies, the main drive of the governing elite is staying in power. Staying in power means pleasing the plebes. Pleasing the plebes means subsidies. They've dropped the subsidies in Iran, without too much unrest. Nigeria and Myanmar are examples of the opposite. In China, they're taxing the oil companies to subsidize fuel for the public sectors.

BEIJING, Dec. 7 (Xinhua) -- China will collect more than 60 billion yuan (8.1 billion U.S. dollars) in special funds from oil producers to offer subsidies to public service sectors and low-income families feeling the pinch of increasingly higher prices.

http://english.china.com/zh_cn/business ... 33813.html

[Waterthrush]

I read this with horror. Why can't anyone learn from our mistakes? I wonder why they are emulating the individual car culture of the US rather than the excellent mass transit of Europe?

Also, there is no way the US can advocate thrifty energy practices - we have zero credibility in this area. So, the use of the adjective "wasteful" by anyone in any official US position, is a joke.

[pup55]

Why can't anyone learn from our mistakes?

Because driving is fun, the production and consumption of automobiles is a key element of a heavy-manufacturing economy that, unlike war, will not kill large numbers of people, and revenues and other activities generated by auto production enable a bigger government, which, if you are running the government, adds to your power.

It will be interesting to see what happens when they put the big padlock on the last US auto assembly plant. Without consumers, the whole system comes to a halt.

[efarmer]

The world has watched us live like there's no tomorrow and now some more people are getting to do it as well. Having had an E ticket petroleum carnival ride for 50 years it will be hard to tell everyone else that they can't have a turn because those of us who rode first have had a sobering mental awakening. PO people are a very small group in developed nations that are still full tilt into the notion of endless growth via petroleum. When you post pictures from these same places that show fat guys walking around with weed blowers, we know we no longer have any style edge left at all.

[shortonoil]

lorenzo said:

The only thing that distinguishes us from beasts and machines, is our capacity to indulge in luxury, playfulness and excess.

The only thing that distinguishes humans from other animals is that, like all species, our survival mechanism is unique. We have the ability to develop and employ advanced technology. This differentiation is no different than a bird’s power of flight, or a turtles’ ability to grow a shell. It has given us the power to survive, and to reproduce the next generation.

This “unique” capability is powered by a unique instinct; the proclivity to copy and perform behaviors that we observe. It is called mimicry, and we mimic everything. We have mimicked other humans and animals to the point that we are destroying the planet. This is the epitome of shitting in your own nest.

Until we realize that most of our behaviors are pre-programmed, instinctual we will continue to plaque the planet. Nature, Gaia or what ever you want to call her, him, it is not going to allow this to happen. Lovelock is right, I am sure, the earth is a self-regulating system based on feedback loops. Our coming decline is merely an adjustment in that process.

To separate humanity out as a singular creature, is absurd. We only do it because we are now at the top of the food chain. That has not allows been the case. We are no more privileged or no more endowed than any other animal. The Seven Deadly Sins are no more deadly for humans than they are for sea urchins. Our only true differentiation may be a ridiculously malformed ego!

The Chinese are building and using millions of cars, and they are doing it because we are using and building millions of new cars. This is the gross, absurd aspect of mimicry. This is the result of an instinct that has gone out of control. Has it added quality to a 3000 year old civilization; that is very doubtful. It has added pollution, a decline in other highly needed investments, like food production, and more pressure on a rapidly declining and vital resource.

What may “distinguishes us from beasts and machines” is that we are totally instinct blind!

[Twilight]

Why can't anyone learn from our mistakes?

Our mistakes don't look like mistakes from where they're sitting. They look fun as hell. Most of "us" agree too.

[FreakOil]

Americans take far too much credit for their role in leading the world's consumption habits. Chinese have no concept of suburbia, nor would they wish to live in such a place. Living in the big city is their goal. Most dream of owning a modest two- or three-bedroom apartment.

Cars are viewed as a status symbol rather than a necessity, like in America, and they prefer Japanese and European models rather than American gas guzzlers. Volkswagen has the largest market share, with domestic companies chipping away at the subcompact market.

Brand image, marketing and television are to blame for the consumption craze. The young kids look to Japan for inspiration. Bathing Ape, which sells simple T-shirts emblazoned with a gorilla for more than $100 a pop, is the current flavor of the month. Korean pop culture is also a big influence. On the high-end market, European brands like Gucci, Prada and Hennessy are king.

American may have played a huge role in spawning this international brand and marketing fiasco, but it's taken on a life of its own. Chinese don't need any guidance from Americans on how to empty their wallets. Don't take so much credit.

[FreakOil]

The only thing that distinguishes us from beasts and machines, is our capacity to indulge in luxury, playfulness and excess.

We also have the unique ability to observe the world around us and change our behavior, which individuals and societies have done in the past and are doing today.

[shortonoil]

FreakOil said:

We also have the unique ability to observe the world around us and change our behavior, which individuals and societies have done in the past and are doing today.

That is doubtful, there is little that is unique about humans. Almost all of us search for a mate, seek a home or shelter, pursue social status and position, adhere to the territorial imperative, and mimic. This has been a constant for over a million years. We make technological changes because it is instinctual and our primary survival mechanism; the rest changes little over time. If you met a man of the ancient city of Huyuk (8000 B.P.), and could speak his language, you would find him a human, very much like yourself. Our behavior is defined by a file of evolutionary developed responses, and has change little over vast expanses of time. You are just propagating the age old delusion of free will; a wore out attempt to self-delude that is now destroying the world. We either learn to comprehend and deal with the inherit contentions that come with what it means to be human, or Gaia will do it for us.

[FreakOil]

We either learn to comprehend and deal with the inherit contentions that come with what it means to be human, or Gaia will do it for us.

You've contradicted yourself. This statement implies that we can learn through observation and "deal with the contentions." Some people obviously can change their behaviors. Just look in the prep section of this web site.

[shortonoil]

FreakOil said:

You've contradicted yourself. This statement implies that we can learn through observation and "deal with the contentions." Some people obviously can change their behaviors. Just look in the prep section of this web site.

There are no contradictions in the above statement. People are not changing their behaviors, they are merely trying to affect a different outcome from their behaviors. They are acting differently in response to a stimulus. Their behaviors are still instinct driven, such as the need to provide food for themselves and their families or the need to provide a home. The behaviors themselves, the desire to eat and the desire for shelter are instincts and are still very much intact, as they have always been.

The proclivity to mimic, such as buying an SUV because their neighbor or boss has one, or moving to the burbs and getting an 8,000 square foot house, because that is where the socially privileged reside, has not changed. Our desire to mimic is instinctual, and although it is the bases of Complex Culture which is the foundation of what we call civilization, it is also a force that is now destroying the world.

Until we come to grips with the truth that what we do is a response to our innate instinctual drives, the outcome of our behaviors will produce the same results. Our instincts, our most fundamental imperatives, that were designed by evolution to maintain us in the world from which we came, the Paleolithic, will retard our advance and pressure us backward toward it. We will continue to overpopulate and we will continue to consume more resources than can be substainingly provided by our planet.

[PeakingAroundtheCorner]

GULP!

The economies of many big oil-exporting countries are growing so fast that their need for energy within their borders is crimping how much they can sell abroad, adding new strains to the global oil market.

Experts say the sharp growth, if it continues, means several of the world’s most important suppliers may need to start importing oil within a decade to power all the new cars, houses and businesses they are buying and creating with their oil wealth.

Indonesia has already made this flip. By some projections, the same thing could happen within five years to Mexico, the No. 2 source of foreign oil for the United States, and soon after that to Iran, the world’s fourth-largest exporter. In some cases, the governments of these countries subsidize gasoline heavily for their citizens, selling it for as little as 7 cents a gallon, a practice that industry experts say fosters wasteful habits.

“It is a very serious threat that a lot of major exporters that we count on today for international oil supply are no longer going to be net exporters any more in 5 to 10 years,” said Amy Myers Jaffe, an oil analyst at Rice University.

-snip-

New York Times

Three words: Export Land Model

Thank you Jeffrey Brown.

[PeakingAroundtheCorner]

Er...WTF? Did I post this in the wrong place?