[Jotapay]

Ah so you're a hyperinflation or stagflation believer.

Not necessarily. Both my recommendations are viable strategies before deflation.

I think #2 is not a bad decision, provided it works out well in the future.

[JJ]

[quote=" I should be able to keep the house even if I had to work as a grocery store clerk or bus driver.[/quote]

well. I'm a produce clerk. You'll probably be O.K.

[strider3700]

If you are buying in B.C. you are a very brave man. Our property has only recently started to drop compared to the U.S. and we have a long ways to go, especially when you see that layoffs are only starting to kick in around B.C.
Could be 2 years of declines ahead for us if we go the same way as the U.S.

Well I'm moving within the same market so I got great money for my current place (just shy of doubled in 4.5 years) Also I'm thinking long term, anywhere I buy will be my home for the next 30+ years.

[patience]

No. AP is as sane as anyone I've ever known or heard of. Dead on target, IMHO. Good advice, I think, and well stated.

Mortgage rates in the US jumped a bunch today. I wouldn't want to be in the market for a home right now in the US. Dunno about BC. But, Jotopay sounds right--be as conservative as you know how to be, so that whatever the situation you can make it.

What savings we have, I'm looking to put into something that will produce what we need. Gardens, chickens, orchard, rainwater catchment, machine shop, wood shop, sewing and canning needs, energy production (solar PV now and maybe wind later), and lay up parts and supplies for those things to keep them going.

For those things we can't supply for ourselves, we first looked at reducing our needs, with insulation, better doors, new white metal roof (reflects summer heat and good for catching water), solar space heating, clotheslines, etc.. This is exactly what Ludi has been saying, "Reduce your need to earn". So. whatever the dollar is worth, we won't need as many dollars.

strider3700,

Look at the community around where you plan to buy, with regard to its' self-sufficiency, and traditions thereof. Don't want no helpless neighbors!

On the dollar outlook, put me down as seeing first (now), deflation in big ticket items from collapsing credit. I see that getting a lot worse as the govt sops up all the available credit to finance itself. That won't be enough, so I think they will fragrantly print money when all else fails, but there will be a lot of games and jawboning first. As the bond market tanks, the FED will have to buy more and more of the Treasury's crap bonds, until we get a currency collapse. I think there is no turning back on that now. I have no idea what a currency collapse will look like, but I know I won't like it. My guess is barter, at some point, will be the order of the day.

In the words of John Shuttleworth, creator of The Mother Earth News, "Look around and see what you own that would be worth anything if you had to provide basics for yourself", or something close to that. Good advice, then and now.

[Cid_Yama]

They are already flagrantly printing money. When the Fed purchases 118 bn out of 300 bn Treasuries offered, that's 118 bn of monetized debt. The equivalent of printing money.

I believe the US plan is to issue all the debt it needs to rollover the nearly 2 trillion in debt come due this year come hell or high water.

In other words, you will not see a failed auction. Anything that is not purchased by someone else WILL be purchased by the Fed. They will monetize any debt not purchased.

It's called defaulting on the debt without admitting that is what you are doing.

Here's how it works. The Treasury prints up these paper thingys, actually they are not even paper the are electronic notations on a computer somewhere, and sells them to the FED, who gives the Treasury US dollars for them, actually not really paper dollars but more electronic notations labeled dollars. These are then transfered to whichever foreign nation is expecting payment.

It's just slight of hand. As if they just bought a roll of paper, printed a bunch of money and gave it to the third party saying our debt is paid. But because it's electronic they didn't even have the expense of paper and ink. The Treasury just typed a bunch of numbers in the computer, sent those numbers to the Fed, who sent more numbers back to the Treasury, who then forwarded those numbers to whoever was expecting payment.

The Fed is NEVER audited. Did the money to buy the Treasuries come from some account the Fed has? Or rather did the Fed just create that money out of thin air. You will never be able to say. The Fed is NEVER audited.

Yes, the Fed is audited you might say.

Internal audits are conducted on the branches by the branches. These audits are reviewed on behalf of the Federal Reserve Board. But no external audit is done.

What about the GAO?, you might say.

Operations at each Federal Reserve Bank also are subject to review by the Government Accountability Office (GAO), the audit arm of the U.S. Congress. However, GAO auditors are restricted by law from reviewing monetary policy operations and transactions carried out by the Federal Reserve on behalf of foreign central banks. This restriction was imposed by Congress to assure the independence of the Federal Reserve from political influence.

link

The purchase of Treasuries definitely falls under monetary policy operations.

[Jotapay]

Unless Ben and the Obama administration admit defeat and pull back from the quantitative easing, I have a really bad feeling about the direction this is headed. I would buy ammo and decide where you will hole up when it all goes down. Americans are not as rational or educated overall as Icelandic folks.

[Cid_Yama]

They can't. The US MUST rollover nearly 2 trillion in debt this year or be considered in Default.

HR 1207 (Federal Reserve Transparency Act of 2009) was introduced by Dr. Ron Paul on February 26, 2009. This represents the first attempt at a true audit of the Federal Reserve since its inception in 1913.

link

Looks like trouble might be on the horizon.

[AirlinePilot]

Excellent explanation Cid. Very simple and concise and of course its insane.

Im not manic depressive, as a matter of fact I've been really happy lately. I still have a great job I love and get paid well to do it. Its allowed me to put some aside and do some preps for what I think is coming. I know my job along with this entire charade is not secure, but thats out of my control really.

I'm not sweating it, Im not a loser, and will survive any gross downturn or collapse. Its actually quite liberating in a way.

[Cid_Yama]

"I'm really concerned about the dollar," he declared. "I'm trying to figure out whether it's [the decline] due to overt market action or covert government action."

Cashin took on the roller-coaster of Treasurys yield spikes and rush sales.

Although many analysts predicted a bond bubble in recent months, he scoffs at the idea that their prescience should make anyone lackadaisical about the situation:

"Just because you know something's going to happen doesn't mean you should be calm about it: 'Gee, I see that iceberg. Wow, we just hit it. I think that means the ship's going to sink.'"

link

[bikerguy]

Ill tell you, the only people who see a improvement are the people on wallstreet. This will not be a U shaped economy like they said. Where going negative GDP for years. The market rallies on a GM bankrurtcy? China is rallying this market, what a shame, the us is so sold out. I see gold going sky high within a few years and the dollar tanking. A half a million layed off is good news to wallstreet? They just shrug this off. I got layed of Dec.1 2007, with no sign of landing a job here in Michigan. I saw this all coming so I didn't get burned financially, except that I lost my job due to NAFTA. Trying my best to make something happen, but wages are going down , not up. It just doesn't look positive to me. Just my macro veiw of things.

[threadbear]

Ill tell you, the only people who see a improvement are the people on wallstreet. This will not be a U shaped economy like they said. Where going negative GDP for years. The market rallies on a GM bankrurtcy? China is rallying this market, what a shame, the us is so sold out. I see gold going sky high within a few years and the dollar tanking. A half a million layed off is good news to wallstreet? They just shrug this off. I got layed of Dec.1 2007, with no sign of landing a job here in Michigan. I saw this all coming so I didn't get burned financially, except that I lost my job due to NAFTA. Trying my best to make something happen, but wages are going down , not up. It just doesn't look positive to me. Just my macro veiw of things.

Keep your chin up and helmet on, Biker Guy. You've got a good brain that will stand you in much better stead than most people.