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Discussion of Harper[BP] ASPO presentation

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: ASPO Spreadsheet-"All-Peak.xls"

Unread postby PeakOiler » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 00:39:06

Taskforce_Unity wrote:ASPO doesn't provide detailed data. The latest figures can be found in newsletter 59


Pardon me, but they do. Or they did. I'll send you the copy of the spreadsheet I downloaded from the ASPO website if you would like a copy.
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Re: ASPO Spreadsheet-"All-Peak.xls"

Unread postby Taskforce_Unity » Sun 13 Nov 2005, 07:08:18

Depends on what you call detailed... I think i know the spreadsheet you are talking about (although i am not sure).

But the data that ASPO provides doesn't tell you much. It's about how they derived to this data what's important. That's what i call detailed!
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Re: Baseline depletion numbers

Unread postby grabby » Tue 15 Nov 2005, 02:40:35

the estimated reserves of the countries in 1980 were the same as now. Didn't we use any oil since then?
Last edited by grabby on Wed 08 Feb 2006, 22:37:07, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: my bad

Unread postby grabby » Tue 15 Nov 2005, 02:43:53

Nice graph though, and a lot of work. Thanks.
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Re: Baseline depletion numbers

Unread postby grabby » Sun 30 Apr 2006, 13:12:32

May want to recheck your for,mula

2004 75.570 1127.9 40.9 0.000 82.7 10.234 28.9%
2005 75.440 1108.9 40.3 0.000 69.8 10.848 30.7%


you have 75.57 million barrels per day and there are 365 days per year.

that would be 27.58 Gigabarrels subtracted from 1127.9



that would be 1100 not 1108.
I think your numbers are off for some reason, if I am wrong please go through the first iteration step by step.
thanks.
we have passed supply/demand peak regardless of how much
they increase production.

supply demand peak is what sets the prices, and is what will start a lot of problems, we cannot produce as much as we need already. forget about 2025..
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ASPO Revises Conventional Oil Estimate

Unread postby PeakOiler » Sun 04 Feb 2007, 10:57:01

...from 1900 GB to 1850 Gb in the February 2007 Newsletter.

The database and depletion model behind the database are being updated: a task that becomes ever more difficult as the public database deteriorate and exhibit a wider range. A first pass has delivered the total production to 2100 of Regular Conventional of slightly under a rounded 1850 Gb, compared with the 2005 estimate which came in at 1857 Gb, being rounded up to 1900 Gb with the entry of the so-called Unforeseen. The current updated model shows a peak for Regular Conventional in 2005 but that for all liquids remains in 2010. The graph and table on page two have been updated accordingly but will almost certainly be subject to further adjustment in what is a very much an iterative process, being far from an exact science.


I'm curious as to what CC means exactly when he states that the public database is deteriorating?
Any ideas?
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Re: ASPO Revises Conventional Oil Estimate

Unread postby clv101 » Sun 04 Feb 2007, 11:42:59

I spoke to Colin briefly about this a couple of weeks ago - his point is that the more data lands on his desk, the more visibility he gets the crazier things appear. In that better visibility is increasing the uncertainty, "deteriorate and exhibit a wider range" rather than narrowing things down as one would expect and hope.
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ASPO currently has "real" peak in 2011

Unread postby Dan1195 » Sun 06 May 2007, 20:31:13

I know ASPO has regular oil peaking 2005. But the peak of regular+deepwater+heavy etc (i.e. stuff that not gas) is not until 2011. Refinery productions limitations aside, it would appear they are saying that restricted supply due to declining CRUDE prioduction would not be for another 5 years. Of course we may already be at rollover, where even though we can pump slightly more, we cannot pump enough to meet demand. declining EROEI/crude quality is also becoming a factor.

Just seems like the people saying peak was last year are jumping the gun.
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Re: ASPO currently has "real" peak in 2011

Unread postby seahorse » Sun 06 May 2007, 20:52:53

Yes, they keep pushing their PO date back, which the optimist would say is par for their course.
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Re: ASPO currently has "real" peak in 2011

Unread postby ohanian » Sun 06 May 2007, 23:56:23

You liar! I distinctly remember the peak to be 2008
With a proper correction in the calculations, it is 2010
NEXT YEAR, YOU WILL BE TELLING ME IT'S 2012 !
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Re: ASPO currently has "real" peak in 2011

Unread postby aldente » Mon 07 May 2007, 01:37:02

The advantage of the earlier peak date is that ones curiosity about the true implictions of PO will be satisfied sooner while the later the date (and I have no doubts that all techincal and financial effort will generate the latest possible outcome) will lead to enjoy the extened luxury to do business as usual (which is not that bad a thing after all, eventhough the younger posters on this board seemingly can't wait for things to change..)

Some people walk through live pre-PO like this by the way:
Image
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Re: ASPO currently has "real" peak in 2011

Unread postby Dan1195 » Fri 11 May 2007, 22:19:35

I was looking at the ASPO deepwater estimates, and one notices that the much of the expected growth in deepwater oil between now at 2011 is in Nigeria. Given the worsening situation there as of late, you wonder whether those growth rates can be realized.

Also lots of other stuff that can effect production rates, most of it not in a good way (nationalization in Venezuala, etc.) which can limit production/hasten depletion. That combined with refinery limitations indicates that the "bumpy plateau" has indeed arrived. I personally believe we can marginally increase production for the next few years, barring a major reccession first. Not enough to satisfy demand of course, though.
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Re: ASPO currently has "real" peak in 2011

Unread postby julianj » Sat 12 May 2007, 06:31:25

We are on the undulating plateau right now. I've seen several predictions coalescing around 2011 when the increases in unconventional oil fail to offset the decline in conventional. Dr Mike Smith of Energyfiles has some useful info here:

www.energyfiles.com The Global Oil Supply Gap
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Re: ASPO currently has "real" peak in 2011

Unread postby Ayame » Sat 12 May 2007, 09:01:37

ohanian wrote:NEXT YEAR, YOU WILL BE TELLING ME IT'S 2012 !

But it will be 2012, everyone knows that the year of armageddon is 2012! Even the Mayans knew it! 2012 is when SHTF big time.
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Re: ASPO currently has "real" peak in 2011

Unread postby aldente » Sun 13 May 2007, 01:29:54

I personally do not subsribe to any religious doctrin and hence don't take the term armageddon seriously.

Here a couple of alternative thoughts on the topic:
http://www.levity.com/eschaton/finalillusion.html

Image

David Hawkins by the way did calibrate the Book of Revelation on his arbitrary scale from 1-1000 and it received a mere 80 points. He states that it was added to the scriptures in a church counsil (don't ask me when, probably around the year 1000) and is a book of very low frequency.

Stay away from it!
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Re: ASPO currently has "real" peak in 2011

Unread postby Mircea » Sun 20 May 2007, 00:49:06

seahorse wrote:Yes, they keep pushing their PO date back, which the optimist would say is par for their course.

Maybe you meant to say economist, in lieu of optimist. Economics 101 and 4th grade math will continue to push the PO date back. One cannot consume what one cannot afford to buy. It's just that simple.
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Re: ASPO currently has "real" peak in 2011

Unread postby TommyJefferson » Sun 20 May 2007, 10:55:22

albente wrote:Some people walk through live pre-PO like this by the way:

Ha! In the Medieval post-PO agrarian world for which our younger posters lust, that guy will make good sport for the butcher, baker, and candlestick maker.
But perhaps he is such an excellent blacksmith he will win all my business when my cooking pots and plow need repair.
Conform . Consume . Obey .
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Re: ASPO currently has "real" peak in 2011

Unread postby Twilight » Sun 20 May 2007, 18:41:36

Mircea wrote:Economics 101 and 4th grade math will continue to push the PO date back. One cannot consume what one cannot afford to buy. It's just that simple.

Peak Oil is in the past. You are now talking about the gradient of the decline curve.
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Re: ASPO currently has "real" peak in 2011

Unread postby NTBKtrader » Mon 21 May 2007, 01:03:11

Oil is peaking 2013. The Mayans predicted it.
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Re: ASPO currently has

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 15 Jan 2018, 14:20:37

seahorse wrote:Yes, they keep pushing their PO date back, which the optimist would say is par for their course.


You mean the realist. Because after all the prior claimed peaks, it certainly doesn't hurt not to be locked down to one silly date or another. And now, nearly a decade and a half later, obviously the EIA and their 2037 peak oil date looks far more likely than all the prior claims that haven't worked out.
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