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Diesel shortage?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: The peak oil crisis: diesel

Unread postby Novus » Fri 16 May 2008, 01:37:37

Do you have any idea how bad a diesel shortage in America would be? It would be a black swan event if I ever saw one as supermarket shelves would go bare in days without deliveries.
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Re: The peak oil crisis: diesel

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Fri 16 May 2008, 08:10:04

OilFinder2 wrote:But then again . . .

WSJ
Refiners Tilt to Diesel Over Gasoline
By Ana Campoy

U.S. refiners by now would be moving full-speed to ramp up gasoline production in advance of the summer driving season, but instead they are trying to maximize output of more-profitable diesel fuel.

The global hunger for diesel, coupled with tight refining capacity, has made diesel one of the few bright spots in the refining business, catapulting prices higher than a parallel rise in gasoline.

Diesel prices were up an additional 18.2 cents last week to a record $4.33 a gallon, a 56% increase over the price at this time last year. Gasoline is climbing, too, but less dramatically.

[...]

Subscription required.


And how much can they "tilt" toward middle distillates? I cannot remember the percentage but refineries are only capable of small moves in one direction or another. I believe it depends, in part, on the crude that they a starting with. When demand is growing how much does even a 10% increase in diesel production matter? Or perhaps better put, how long does it buy us?

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Re: The peak oil crisis: diesel

Unread postby dukey » Fri 16 May 2008, 08:13:47

I've seen the price of diesel at £1.28 here per LITRE !

lol .. That's $9.42 per gallon

no real demand destruction yet
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Re: The peak oil crisis: diesel

Unread postby olekriri » Fri 16 May 2008, 09:02:06

Diesel has always been cheaper than gas here in Norway because of lower taxation, but the last months it's been different and people are beginning to complain.

Record high 13.59 kr/litre is todays list price at Shell Norway. That is $10.16/gallon...
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Re: The peak oil crisis: diesel

Unread postby Madpaddy » Fri 16 May 2008, 11:39:22

This is global.

http://www.rte.ie/business/2008/0516/petrol.html

A survey by the AA has found that prices for both petrol and diesel continued to rise in the last month.

The survey found that the average price of diesel now costs 132.4 cent, which represents a 7.8 cent increase in the last month alone, while petrol now costs 124.9 cent on average, up 3.8 cent.

The price of diesel usually drops as summer approaches, but that trend has been bucked this year with price rises that AA public affairs manager Conor Faughnan describes as 'phenomenal'.

'We have never seen prices rise so fast or reach so high. It is having a major impact on diesel motorists and also on the cost of haulage and the costs for many businesses. It's bad news for the consumer's pocket and the economy as a whole,' he said.

'We can understand oil prices pushing up the cost of fuel,' he explained. 'But that does not explain why diesel is affected so much worse than petrol,' he added.

Mr Faughnan pointed out that the current highs are not restricted to Ireland.

He said: 'Right across Europe and beyond, diesel is at record highs. We still have no satisfactory explanation as to why this should be so.

'European countries including Ireland are encouraging their motorists to switch to diesel for environmental reasons, and it would be extremely disappointing if those consumers lost out.'

Mr Faughnan called on both the Government and the European Commission to get to the bottom of the current situation.
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Re: The peak oil crisis: diesel

Unread postby Madpaddy » Fri 16 May 2008, 11:39:55

This is global.

http://www.rte.ie/business/2008/0516/petrol.html

A survey by the AA has found that prices for both petrol and diesel continued to rise in the last month.

The survey found that the average price of diesel now costs 132.4 cent, which represents a 7.8 cent increase in the last month alone, while petrol now costs 124.9 cent on average, up 3.8 cent.

The price of diesel usually drops as summer approaches, but that trend has been bucked this year with price rises that AA public affairs manager Conor Faughnan describes as 'phenomenal'.

'We have never seen prices rise so fast or reach so high. It is having a major impact on diesel motorists and also on the cost of haulage and the costs for many businesses. It's bad news for the consumer's pocket and the economy as a whole,' he said.

'We can understand oil prices pushing up the cost of fuel,' he explained. 'But that does not explain why diesel is affected so much worse than petrol,' he added.

Mr Faughnan pointed out that the current highs are not restricted to Ireland.

He said: 'Right across Europe and beyond, diesel is at record highs. We still have no satisfactory explanation as to why this should be so.

'European countries including Ireland are encouraging their motorists to switch to diesel for environmental reasons, and it would be extremely disappointing if those consumers lost out.'

Mr Faughnan called on both the Government and the European Commission to get to the bottom of the current situation.
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Re: The peak oil crisis: diesel

Unread postby Twilight » Fri 16 May 2008, 13:18:16

http://www.petrolprices.com/ wrote:UK Petrol Prices for
Thursday 15th May 2008

Avg. Min. Max.
Unleaded: 112.6p 107.9p 122.9p
Diesel: 124.2p 117.9p 136.0p
LRP: 117.0p 110.9p 122.9p
Super: 119.5p 110.9p 130.9p
LPG: 57.0p 48.5p 61.9p

This time last year, with petrol and diesel prices in the 90s, there was little difference. Historically diesel would be around 2p more expensive. This year that has changed dramatically.

Twilight wrote:Posted: Wed May 16, 2007 6:23 pm Post subject: Re: Europe Fuel Shortage Reports Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote Edit/Delete this post
Yesterday's UK national averages (per litre)

Ave / Min / Max

Unleaded: 95.9p 91.9p 104.9p
Diesel: 96.8p 91.9p 106.9p
LRP: 99.7p 93.9p 101.9p
Super: 102.1p 94.9p 110.9p
LPG: 46.2p 39.9p 52.9p

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic28371-0-asc-45.html


Same source comparison, exactly a year apart. :)
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Re: The peak oil crisis: diesel

Unread postby fletch_961 » Fri 16 May 2008, 21:32:47

I've seen the price of diesel at £1.28 here per LITRE !

lol .. That's $9.42 per gallon


European currency converted to American currency.
European measurement converted to British (U/K) measurement-no longer in use.

The Imperial gallon is no longer legal, in the United Kingdom, for trade or public administration purposes, but it is used colloquially (and in advertising) for fuel consumption figures in miles per gallon.
The Imperial gallon continues to be used as a unit of measure for fuel in Antigua and Barbuda, Belize, Burma, Grenada, Guyana, Sierra Leone and the United Arab Emirates.[1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]


We don't use the same size gallon on this side of the pond. In fact pretty much nobody uses that gallon. That got smart and switched to metric.

For an American who buy their fuel with American currency measured in American gallons:

1.28 / .64 * 3.79 = $7.58

It is about $4.50 here. So no big difference when you know the reason for the difference.

I know most American will probably disagree with me---But if it is measured in liters leave it alone. If you really feel the need to convert something to an American standard with regards to the liter--convert it to our way of spelling it. :)

I appreciate your effort in converting stuff for us dumb Americans, but it is pretty much useless if I have to guess which unit of measurement you are using.

Unless of course you are trying to exaggerate how much your paying for fuel.

/rant off

Record high 13.59 kr/litre is todays list price at Shell Norway. That is $10.16/gallon...


I'll just assume something around $8.
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Re: The peak oil crisis: diesel

Unread postby dukey » Fri 16 May 2008, 21:49:07

fletch_961 wrote:
I've seen the price of diesel at £1.28 here per LITRE !

lol .. That's $9.42 per gallon


European currency converted to American currency.
European measurement converted to British (U/K) measurement-no longer in use.

The Imperial gallon is no longer legal, in the United Kingdom, for trade or public administration purposes, but it is used colloquially (and in advertising) for fuel consumption figures in miles per gallon.
The Imperial gallon continues to be used as a unit of measure for fuel in Antigua and Barbuda, Belize, Burma, Grenada, Guyana, Sierra Leone and the United Arab Emirates.[1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]


We don't use the same size gallon on this side of the pond. In fact pretty much nobody uses that gallon. That got smart and switched to metric.

For an American who buy their fuel with American currency measured in American gallons:

1.28 / .64 * 3.79 = $7.58

It is about $4.50 here. So no big difference when you know the reason for the difference.

I know most American will probably disagree with me---But if it is measured in liters leave it alone. If you really feel the need to convert something to an American standard with regards to the liter--convert it to our way of spelling it. :)

I appreciate your effort in converting stuff for us dumb Americans, but it is pretty much useless if I have to guess which unit of measurement you are using.

Unless of course you are trying to exaggerate how much your paying for fuel.

/rant off

Record high 13.59 kr/litre is todays list price at Shell Norway. That is $10.16/gallon...


I'll just assume something around $8.


why did you assume i used imperial gallons ?

The maths is correct.

according to google

£ 1.28 = 2.501376 U.S. dollars = 1 litre
1 litre = 0.264172052 US gallons

2.501/0.264 = $9.40
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Re: The peak oil crisis: diesel

Unread postby Twilight » Fri 16 May 2008, 21:51:39

That calculation did use the US gallon. Who uses the Imperial gallon? What exchange rate are you assuming?

One litre at £1.28 at an exchange rate of £1.00 = $1.96 is $2.51.

There are 3.785 litres in a US gallon, which gives a price of $9.50.
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Re: The peak oil crisis: diesel

Unread postby fletch_961 » Fri 16 May 2008, 22:46:42

My fault. Was thinking Euro not the Pound.

Carry on.
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Re: The peak oil crisis: diesel

Unread postby jdmartin » Sat 17 May 2008, 00:08:44

Well I drove past several gas stations yesterday selling diesel at $4.50 per gallon - I had to look twice! Too bad I didn't have a camera on me (well, I had the cell phone but it takes crappy pictures).

I don't know about anywhere else but around me people are starting to have a heart attack over diesel prices. Farmers, truck drivers and people using diesel small trucks & pickups for businesses are really starting to scream. Anecdotally, I've seen one RV on the highway commuting with me in the last 2 months, and we have a lot of tourists especially with the season coming warm now. I'm also noticing a lot less tractor trailer traffic, which I have to say is nice from a driving standpoint but makes you think about all the stuff that's not getting shipped like before.
After fueling up their cars, Twyman says they bowed their heads and asked God for cheaper gas.There was no immediate answer, but he says other motorists joined in and the service station owner didn't run them off.
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Re: The peak oil crisis: diesel

Unread postby yesplease » Sat 17 May 2008, 02:44:49

wisconsin_cur wrote:And how much can they "tilt" toward middle distillates? I cannot remember the percentage but refineries are only capable of small moves in one direction or another.
Short term yes AFAIK. Long term, not really. For instance, earlier this year diesel was way out of range with gasoline compared to it's usual difference that seems to be based on energy content. In other words per btu/kwh/etc diesel and gas tend to cost the same, but when ULSD was introduced, the dollar falling further and high heating oil demand served to drive prices up in the short term. In the long term, refiners adjusted their crack ratio in response to prices and diesel returned to it's usual pricing.
Wikipedia wrote:For simplicity, most refiners wishing to hedge their price exposures have used a crack ratio usually expressed as X:Y:Z where X represents a number of barrels of crude oil, Y represents a number of barrels of gasoline and Z represents a number of barrels of distillate fuel oil, subject to the constraint that X=Y+Z. This crack ratio is used for hedging purposes by buying X barrels of crude oil and selling Y barrels of gasoline and Z barrels of distillate in the futures market. The crack spread X:Y:Z reflects the spread obtaining by trading oil, gasoline and distillate according to this ratio. Widely used crack spreads have included 3:2:1, 5:3:2 and 2:1:1.[1] As the 3:2:1 crack spread is the most popular of these, widely quoted crack spread benchmarks are the "Gulf Coast 3:2:1" and the "Chicago 3:2:1".
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Re: The peak oil crisis: diesel

Unread postby pup55 » Sun 18 May 2008, 22:37:57

Image

Here is the ratio of distillates to gasoline as far back as the data goes, 1982 I think.

There is a gradual trend during this period to higher distillates, it's now exactly 2:1.

Note that they have some flexibility on this, at the current time I would say they have about 5% wiggle room.

Image

This is an old graph that I have not updated in awhile but it is the fraction of overall production that consists of unleaded, compared to refinery utilization. The question is: do they need to turn down the overall throughput rate in order to produce more distillates. The answer is: generally, they can still run pretty efficiently even at low levels of unleaded. Over time, however, they have tended to run a lower ratio of unleaded to distillates, which is reflected in the data above.

I still think the refinery system has not been the same since the hurricanes hit in 2005, and it shows up in this graph as lower utilization in general.
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Re: The peak oil crisis: diesel

Unread postby yesplease » Mon 19 May 2008, 01:19:34

pup55 wrote:Note that they have some flexibility on this, at the current time I would say they have about 5% wiggle room.
Supposedly there is a much wider range based on seasonal demand alone, ~10+%. I imagine that could be altered more, although by how much I don't know.
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How do you remove the dye from red diesel

Unread postby dukey » Sat 31 May 2008, 21:52:14

question mark
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Re: How do you remove the dye from red diesel

Unread postby HEADER_RACK » Sat 31 May 2008, 21:58:08

You're not thinking about running offroad diesel on the road are ya? 8)
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Re: How do you remove the dye from red diesel

Unread postby Pops » Sat 31 May 2008, 22:01:18

Drive the vehicle in a ditch an run till you are blue when caught?

We don't talk about how to break the law.

Sorry.
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Diesel fuel prices problems in Staffordshire

Unread postby bratticus » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 04:40:09

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Re: Why does diesel cost so much?

Unread postby JoeMac » Sat 21 Feb 2009, 09:10:47

normal wrote:
NeoPeasant wrote:
NonToxic wrote:Does anyone know why the price of diesel is more than super in some places?


Because of goobers in giant noisy stinky 4 wheel drive diesel pickup trucks hauling nothing but their own fat asses around?


How about the fact that the diesels run cleaner and and last hundreds of thousands of miles before needing a major overhaul and get better mielage??


While diesel engine part-load and peak efficiency is generally much better than spark-ignition gasoline engines, I wouldn't call them cleaner. Even with the mandated particulate matter emission controls here in the U.S., NOx emissions are much higher for diesels and are much more complicated and expensive to control from a lean-burn combustion cycle than for gasoline. NOx pollution is still a big problem for urban ozone pollution in the U.S. and is transported over long distances. As for the diesel fuel cost, I think it's simple greed and it works in a way that's not too difficult to figure out. According to the Department of Energy, the vast majority of gasoline used in the U.S. is for personal transportation and the vast majority of diesel fuel used in the U.S. is for commercial transport, and most of that is long-haul truck transport. When ExxonMobile (to pick an egregious plunderer for example) raises the price of refined gasoline products, people switch to alternate forms of transportation or scale back discretionary driving and pricing responds to a certain extent (although I think there is plenty of anti-trust sorts of stuff going on there, too). When ExxonMobile raises the price of diesel, the trucks keep rolling on the interstate across North America at more or less the same rate, perhaps with the exception that more of them are fleet trucks since the mom and pop stuff gets driven to bankruptcy. We (as consumers) don't stop eating and for the most part don't stop consuming (we do slow down discretionary spending - recession? depression?) and increasingly our food comes from further and further away since we want our Chilean rubber-ball tomatoes and Chinese garlic tainted with heavy metals in Michigan in the middle of February. So the trucks keep rolling and ExxonMobile keeps cashing in even though the price of gasoline has dropped back down. Diesel costs between $0.50 and $0.70 more per gallon here in the upper Midwest, far more than can be accounted for by taxes, supply, or the differences between gasoline and distillate oil on the commodity futures market. Worse yet, diesel fuel is the same refined product as home heating oil, so high diesel prices mean more people living on the edge of poverty in the NE states getting their wallets hammered at a particularly bad time or worse yet getting their heat turned off. ExxonMobile is making a healthy profit looting us right now, and when gas was bumping off $4/gallon and diesel was up around $5/gallon they made obsene profits. They cleared a $40.6 billion profit last year - more than any company at any time in history.
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