[Newfie]

We have lost a large number of posters who were quite active and then quit rather suddenly.

Ruminating on the matter it seems people post here and get rather roiled up. Then they quit.

Perhaps it is the frustration of not being able to change minds?

I find the best use of the forum is as an excuse to type out my ideas. I find writing out my ideas helps me to develop them. It is the same with talking.

Anyway I because my need is met by the typing I am better able to resist the frustration of not changing minds. Not sure of this, just typing about the possibility.

[careinke]

We have lost a large number of posters who were quite active and then quit rather suddenly.

Ruminating on the matter it seems people post here and get rather roiled up. Then they quit.

Perhaps it is the frustration of not being able to change minds?

I find the best use of the forum is as an excuse to type out my ideas. I find writing out my ideas helps me to develop them. It is the same with talking.

Anyway I because my need is met by the typing I am better able to resist the frustration of not changing minds. Not sure of this, just typing about the possibility.

+1 Me too.

It also lets me go back and see what I was thinking in the past, plus my ancestors if they chose will be able to fully check out my life. I wish I could do the same with some of my ancestors.

I do take breaks sometimes, usually due to more immediate pressures from my real life, (like Grandkids!!!).

Oh, I also take personal attacks as a sign of victory.

Peace

[AgentR11]

I tend to quit posting from time to time; mostly as a matter of available time! Just variations in how much stuff I'm trying to do at once really.

[theluckycountry]

I find the best use of the forum is as an excuse to type out my ideas. I find writing out my ideas helps me to develop them. It is the same with talking.

+1 Me too.

Yes, #Me Too. It's helps to codify things in ya brain and of course to find new information. I think without this sort of interaction you cut yourself off from the real world and the influence of the BS media political world creeps back in. I was watching an episode of the "World at war" earlier tonight, the battle of Stalingrad, and it was fascinating to watch all those Germans marching across Russia only to get slaughtered in freezing trenches. Likewise the Russians marching in to get blown to pieces as well. If those German soldiers had not been seduced by the Nazi propaganda I doubt many would have signed up for the slaughter. But after 5 years or so of controlled media and suppression of thought it was all over for them.

This place isn't as much about espousing opinions as it is about dodging future bullets.

[Newfie]

A bit of interesting art work.

Read the description.

Art imitates life imitates art.

https://www.facebook.com/599283438/post ... tid=cr9u03

[theluckycountry]

A bit of interesting art work.

This content isn't available right now
When this happens, it's usually because the owner only shared it with a small group of people, changed who can see it or it's been deleted.

Never mind.
I probably couldn't have viewed it anyway as I'm not a member of facebook. I never joined any of the social media platforms actually. Just a personal choice based on my desire to limit screen time and not expose my personal life to data accumulators. This thread seems to have wandered a bit, it is hard to quantify degrowth in our modern world I guess, given that all of it, in the West at least, is based on massive debt creation and corporate growth in a market where valuations are really quite fictional.

I have tried to explain this latter in terms of the private pension money that floods into it every week from the wages of billions of working people across the globe. Just imagine a company like Tesla trying to grow in the 1970's when you actually had to make profits? Now all you have to do is create the illusion of value and no doubt have business associates in the pension industry who will redirect the funds under their control into your company. If every week there is a fixed demand for your shares coming from these funds then your share price automatically goes up doesn't it. Simple supply and demand.

Australia is a small nation, population of 26 million, a GDP of 1 Trillion and currently 3.4 Trillion in private pension ( superannuation ) assets under mismanagement. The pop stat is real! The GDP is a fictional value based on everything from wheat produced to CC debt. The pension figure too is a sort of fiction value because unlike the total debt, it can fluctuate wildly depending on the stock and property markets. With 50%, 1.7 trillion in stocks a 50% decline in the market wipes 50% of the value of people's retirement savings. Which is exactly what happened in 2008.

Trying therefore to quantify future growth is a bit like dropping a ball onto a roulette wheel. Around and round it goes, and where it stops nobody knows because growth is based on these fictional metrics that can change in a heartbeat. I'm talking about growth but really it's degrowth that will come from this fiction based economic system. We know that because debt always reaches a limit, eventually, and because over-inflated stock and property markets always revert, eventually. A lot of (most) modern economists would challenge those two truths, but that's understandable since they are being paid to promote the opposite.

[Pops]

If interested check out Peter Zeihan on the UTube.

I have for many years here said the old demographc curve will continue to bend toward degrowth as the birth rate continues falling to match the death rate. I debated people up one side and down the other arguing the population bomb will fizzle, pretty much as it is doing. Zeihan talks about this a lot, pointing out where this has already taken place and the reactions. Degrowth per se isn't his main schtick, he brings in many more observations and trends such as the US becoming more and more inward looking, China's collapsing economy, not to mention Germany's failing industrial sector behind the loss of RU gas imports and so on.

He's a bull on North American energy and its positioning to reshore manufacturing. He isn't a polyanna, if anything he is a investment bull. Many of his theses are simplistic, but he points out macro trends and situations I wasn't aware of. For example his take on Ukraine is that putin doesn't necessarily want it, he wants what is on the other side: the passes that are the route the EU would take to invade RU.

Another idea (not Zeihan's, more seeking alpha) I've argued is that we have been in actual degrowth since at least the '70s. Imagine being fired from your job and subsisting, in fact splurging, on your lifestyle by financing everything, including the interest payments. It is truly a ponzi scheme. Bitcoint, NFTs, home prices, stock values @ 25x earnings and earnings themselves at record levels on blatant price gouging, etc are just the most obvious signs.A quick look at the overall growth in debt vs growth in GDP shows the illusion of growth has been entirely financed.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), All Sectors; Debt Securities and Loans; Liability, Level [TCMDO], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TCMDO, May 1, 2020.

Probably some double counting there but you get the gist. The point of Brenton Woods was to remove the benchmark (gold) so everything could be made up and the points don't matter. The US as post WWII guarantor of globalism (as long as you were against the USSR) is another of Zeihan's hobby horses. The increasing nationalism worldwide but in the US particularly is the death knell for that globalism because who else will be the cop that guards global trade routes? The post-war global order is coming to and end and that will result in the confiscation of our credit card. I think that will be the great dawning.

Degrowth won't ever be voluntary. But already all around us. Makes me think of how the prequel to Gilead might look.

[theluckycountry]

Love that debt chart. From one or two Trillion in 1970 to 80 odd Trillion today. Not Y=X^2, but certainly in the same family. When did growth start? In the 1700's, at the founding of Rome? It's always been there hasn't it, as long as there was a way to grow or steal more food than people could eat. And when it isn't growth, well then it's collapse, Not Degrowth.

Degrowth has a nice orderly ring to it. Like we will just slowly get poorer over time, slowly go back from smart phones to landlines with dials on them. 1970 was a good year, though I was very young then I still remember bits. I even remember using real silver coins a few years before. My father got involved in a pyramid scheme back then called SCOPE. It was to be a credit card like American Express but it never took off and he lost his $2000 buy in directors fee. Someone though made a lot of money.

That was the beginning of the "Get something for nothing mindset" and we have gone downhill ever since. I'm glad the moon landing by Armstrong and Aldrin was made in 1969. That was an honest decent endeavor and doesn't deserve to be associated with the 1970's.

[Newfie]

I don't agree with all of zeihan's positions but in general I think he has it about right. Be seems to have a harder time with short range predictions.

But for his larger global view, he has a lot to offer.

I find his explanation of the Japanese adaptations interesting and helpful.

[Newfie]

Love him or hate him Peter Zeihan is relatively influential.
He is going to post a series of short videos, usually about 6 min, on the larger world picture.

We may find something of interest here to discuss.

https://youtu.be/lf6YnP9ZcAk?si=bW-b0feei-1TV65R

[Newfie]

Zeihan, love him or hate him he is thought provoking.

He is going to post a series of short videos, usually about 6 min, on the larger world picture.

We may find something of interest here to discuss.

https://youtu.be/lf6YnP9ZcAk?si=bW-b0feei-1TV65R

[Pops]

Degrowth has a nice orderly ring to it.

It is an idealized solution to the basic problem of overshoot. One can either bemoan impending ruin; cling to "they'll think of something"; affect a cavalier cynicism; or contemplate alternatives, however improbable. Personally, I find all but the last pretty boring.

Talk of "the fourth turning" idea was popular here for a time. In that vein, it seems we are heading further and further into crisis with no climax in sight. Boomers of course are the Prophets, the makers of righteous war. We of the Non-negotiable Lifestyle generation simply can't tolerate sacrifice. Reactionary authoritarianism globally seems the trend to watch, even beyond energy decline. And that is underscored by the same trending in the US. We've been big brother and hall monitor to the global economy for a "generation." The anti-democratic, ethno-nationalistic, isolationistic, morally self-righteous United States Boomers have yet to bring about the Big One we're owed for losing power, but we're working on it.

Geologic peak oil will be masked by all manner of politics and economic conditions. I personally could not fathom this back at the turn of the 21st. I figured PO would be the next big thing, the thing that made the other problems appear small. As we stand right now politically, peak is waiting on the Permian to roll over. But lots of boiling going on in the pot right now, and hard to know which direction geopolitics—and so peak oil— jumps.

I've been paying attention to AI for a while now, the last year seems a step change. AI is getting plugged into all manner of technology. Perhaps this is it's peak? Perhaps this is only the "knee" of the curve. Just as transitioning to renewable electricity comes at an energy cost in addition to the amount needed to continue the traditional economy, transitioning to AI also comes at an additional energy cost. In fact it isn't just the transition, AI will forever be a huge energy consumer.

And then global warming... 2023 will be the hottest year ever, exceeding the apocryphal 1.5º. If there be tipping points that is suppose to be one.

Degrowth, whether intentional or imposed, is coming.

[mousepad]

Boomers of course are the Prophets, the makers of righteous war. We of the Non-negotiable Lifestyle generation simply can't tolerate sacrifice.

Such a stupid thing to say.
I watch and talk to young people a lot. I have yet to see any significant desire for sacrifice. All of them want a comfortable car, a heated house, vacation to another continent. Coffee in throwaway cups, ready made food delivered to their doors, a fast gaming computer burning 500W playing video games, good paying jobs. They want all this and they also want no oil, no coal, no gas. And if they don't get what they want, it's easy to blame the old generation instead of sacrificing.

So do me a favor and stop with your self-hate, it's tiring.

Degrowth, whether intentional or imposed, is coming.

Degrowth has been here for a long time and hardly anybody noticed.
Chances are, this time degrowth won't be noticed either. It will look like any other day. People bitching about low wages, high prices. As they always have. Nothing new.
Some things have been in degrowath already for a long time (like land), some things are not yet in degrowth (like electronics).

[Pops]

Such a stupid thing to say.

Fuck off.

[theluckycountry]

Merry xmass lol lol

[Newfie]

I agree degrowth is inevitable. The form is exceeding difficult to predict. Yes, a whole lot is going on right now.

I sure understand that thinking PO was going to take us down, and I too have been surprised by a lot.

When I look at my personal risk list top 5 I don’t much reason to change any one.
No order:
Climate change
Resource depletion
Some biological bug; plague, virus, whatever
Global financial collapse
Over population

How this all breaks out is anyones guess. And maybe I am missing something. The resurgence of authoritarian style rule may gain more traction.

But most likely there will be such chaos and turmoil that trends and causes will be difficult to sus out.

What this means for me practically is that my planning has almost stopped, I have no idea what to plan for. We are just plodding along, keeping an eye on the heard so as not to be trampled in the stampede. We are in fairly good shape, physically we have no major problems, our arrangements have a lot of flexibility. And our realistic planning horizion gets shorter daily as we age.

[theluckycountry]

When kuntsler penned, the long emergency in the 00's I started to look around for this emergency, I saw the GFC, that was certainly a blow, but by and large people were just spending more and more of their future earnings by taking on debt. It was almost a "give it to me now because this might be the last chance" mentality. People were not willing to save up anymore, they consumed like a furnace, new cars, new homes, OS holidays. This was unheard of in the 90's.

Well now interest rates are rising and all that debt is coming home to roost, destroying their future happiness just as the cars they bought are getting long in the tooth and the holidays a distant memory. They should have been more prudent. But prudence is a concept out of favor this century.

The Roaring 20's all over again?

...Between 1919 and 1929 horsepower per wage earner in manufacturing skyrocketed by 50 percent, signaling a robust wave of mechanization that increased productivity by 72 percent in manufacturing.

And it was a decade of technological wonder.

In 1912, only 16 percent of American households had electricity; by the mid-20s, almost two-thirds did. Overnight, the electric vacuum cleaner, the electric refrigerator and freezer, and the automatic washing machine became staples in middle-class homes.

...by 1922 more than three million households had acquired radio sets. Seven years later more than twelve million households owned radios, fueling an industry that saw $852 million in annual sales.

https://ap.gilderlehrman.org/essays/roaring-twenties

But guess what.

By the end of the decade, over half of the automobiles in the United States were sold on credit plans, and between 1920 and 1930, consumer debt more than doubled. While other factors contributed, the rise in household debt was a significant factor in the Stock Market Crash of 1929 and the onset of the Great Depression.

https://study.com/academy/lesson/americ ... shift.html

What percentage of cars are sold on credit now?

[Newfie]

Zeihan just did a short video on Australia and touched on their debt issue.

https://youtu.be/8hSYixFjZWM?si=90S0NtC7kVenoIRY

[careinke]

Zeihan just did a short video on Australia and touched on their debt issue.

https://youtu.be/8hSYixFjZWM?si=90S0NtC7kVenoIRY

Interesting, I do not think I have watched him before. I'll dig deeper into his stuff. When you think about it Australia is basically a third world country, hopefully they can figure it out.

I'd be interested in Lucky's take on this.

Peace

[theluckycountry]

I'd be interested in Lucky's take on this.

Peace

Well Zeihan's opinion on China is that it's about to collapse, any day now, which is what American commentators have been saying for decades. But on the ground things keep ticking along. He calls China's economic system insane, but it certainly has less to worry about that the US. Thing is, they don't have big fixed expenditures like social security, public healthcare. These are the non-negotiables in the West. It's a bit like your own personal finances. If you can afford to take a 50% hit to your income and still provide shelter and food for yourself, because you own your own home and don't have large fixed debt repayments, you'll do ok. You'll have to give up netflix and that new motorcycle but life goes on.

If on the other hand you can't live next week without drawing a full wage you are in trouble. This is the state the US system is in. It has huge social security obligations, military obligations, and a thousand other programs with hundreds of thousands, millions, of government employees overseeing them. It's a bloated house of cards. Zeihan says what he says because he's paid to be pro-american. How much revenue would he get from US sources if he spoke negatively about the nation? He mixes fact with hopeful projections and you have to parse the two out.

China's government for example can simply scale back to where it was a decade or two ago. They stop building new highways and cities etc. The debt they have is irrelevant because it's easily defaulted on, just as the US will default on their's one day soon. It's either that or repay it lol. And we know that's impossible. But never forget, China is a part of the BRICS system now and that excludes the west and all it's problems so they will still be trading with all the oil rich and resource rich nations regardless of America's demand for their product. Who will be trading with America? All it has to offer in return is debt,some frac gas, and a few tesla, which are now being made in China for the world market.

When you think about it Australia is basically a third world country, hopefully they can figure it out.

Ha! in your dreams inki, in your dreams. Zeihan says Australia will probably benefit by supplying our minerals to the US when it re-industrializes. When it re-industrializes HaHaHa. Oh Dear, political promises projected as reality.

Countries industrialize once! With cheap labor, and thereafter they turn into service economies and eventually in financial economies, and at each subsequent stage there is less and less money flowing down to the general population. Australia is still living through it's service economy stage but the US has left that behind, and that explains all the financial ripoffs you have and why the largest part of your GDP is the shuffling of debt.

Zeihan suggests we should have moved into the value added stage, and made steel and flour and batteries rather than exporting just the basic resources. Well we did, but we left that behind long ago because once you go down that route you have to maintain the industries and you're constantly being undercut by cheaper labor overseas. You end up in the situation the US is in where their major industries have to be supported by federal tax dollars just to compete! A $7000 tax break on an EV, China doesn't have to provide that because they can make them cheaply. When you try to make them cheaply your unions rebel and the plants are closed, moved to Mexico or China.

Australia is overflowing in raw materials and since the 1970's we have been surviving fine by simply selling them. I wish Zeihan would take his sunglasses off so we could see his eyes. You can tell a lot about a person just by watching their eyes...

10 countries with the highest standard of living
1. Switzerland: 0.96
2. Norway: 0.96
3. Iceland Flag Iceland: 0.96
4. Hong Kong: 0.95
5. Australia: 0.95
6. Denmark: 0.95
7. Sweden: 0.95
8. Ireland: 0.94
9. Germany: 0.94
10. Netherlands: 0.94

Sorry Inki, but the US doesn't even make the list.
https://www.currencytransfer.com/blog/e ... -of-living https://worldpopulationreview.com/count ... by-country