[Newfie]

Adam,
This thread is about degrowth.

[AdamB]

Adam,
This thread is about degrowth.

As is Duncan's suppostion as expressed through the Olduvai Gorge concept. I asked a reasonable question earlier, are you not familiar with Duncan's work from your early days in Peak Oil? The Olduvai idea is about degrowth across the board, discredited in its particulars as expressed by Duncan certainly, but related to degrowth 5 by 5.

[Newfie]

Are you not familiar with my previous answers?

The idea that humans are using excessive resources dawned on me in 3rd or 4th grade, it just seems obvious. That is about 1962, roughly.

About the same time I figured out God didn’t make sense.

Sort of the same thing really.

Stuff doesn’t happen by magic, we are constrained to the physical world. Take care of it.

You probably never heard of my Dad, no one has. But he had it figured out. He used to take places and show me things and say “I just want you to see this before it is gone.” He would tell me how things had changed in his lifetime. Does not take much to then extrapolate that we are consuming excessively. Perpetual motion is BS. I learned from him.

[AdamB]

Are you not familiar with my previous answers?
The idea that humans are using excessive resources dawned on me in 3rd or 4th grade, it just seems obvious. That is about 1962, roughly.

Sounds like you were quite the advanced 3rd or 4th grader. Can't say I noticed that one at all back then.

About the same time I figured out God didn’t make sense.

Yeah, I didn't think too much about that one at that age either.

You probably never heard of my Dad, no one has. But he had it figured out. He used to take places and show me things and say “I just want you to see this before it is gone.” He would tell me how things had changed in his lifetime. Does not take much to then extrapolate that we are consuming excessively. Perpetual motion is BS. I learned from him.

My father was a drunk that killed a civilian while in the Air Force, and left my mother without a means to support herself or his two kids in Appalachia. I learned about Olduvai Gorge idea from Richard Duncan when researching whether or not peak oilers knew anything about it regardless of who they learned it from. Mostly, and now obvious to even them in hindsight, they didn't.

[Newfie]

Adam,

Sorry to hear of your suck childhood.

Do you understand NOW why I am not familiar with these guys?

I had a fair understanding from my own life and observations, I did not need to read the Cannon of Leak Oil literature to grock the issue.

Have you read Farley Mowat “Sea of Slaughter”?

[AdamB]

Adam,
Sorry to hear of your suck childhood.

Interestingly, it wasn't. Not in hindsight anyway, how much do any of us remember about those years that a shrink would say are wildly formative? I remember things, but don't usually attach "suck" to them as much as just "that is the way". Dad shooting up grandma's house looking for mom after he was booted from the Air Force? A memory of the bullet holes in the wall on the opposite side of the house from the big front plate glass window, but nothing else. Being hungry and LOVING certain foods that were like special things, I remember that. Donuts after church services on Sunday, Moms handmade pizza once a week, running water after not having it for a month or two in the winter, and oh yeah, MEAT. That one I've got a fixation with, and when I turned 10 and got a 22, it was rabbits and squirrels, at 12, white tail deer. In season, out of season, didn't matter, venison never went to waste in the holler.

Turned 18, left for college and never went back.

Do you understand NOW why I am not familiar with these guys?

No, not really. I understand what you explained that seems to indicate you knew all the pertinent parts of degrowth through other learning experiences, but I don't automatically link that to a specific reference that was quite prolific during the "we really did think peak oil was gonna kill us all" days.

I had a fair understanding from my own life and observations, I did not need to read the Cannon of Leak Oil literature to grock the issue.

That part I did get. I was under the mistaken assumption you were validating Duncan's work or the halfwits who were unfamiliar with his work themselves, as opposed to it being more...organic...in your case.

Have you read Farley Mowat “Sea of Slaughter”?

No. But having just looked it up, based on where it takes place I can see how you might be quite familiar with it. I'm a Leatherstocking Tales guy, James Fenimore Cooper.

[Newfie]

Adam,
Sorry to hear of your suck childhood.

Interestingly, it wasn't. Not in hindsight anyway, how much do any of us remember about those years that a shrink would say are wildly formative? I remember things, but don't usually attach "suck" to them as much as just "that is the way". Dad shooting up grandma's house looking for mom after he was booted from the Air Force? A memory of the bullet holes in the wall on the opposite side of the house from the big front plate glass window, but nothing else. Being hungry and LOVING certain foods that were like special things, I remember that. Donuts after church services on Sunday, Moms handmade pizza once a week, running water after not having it for a month or two in the winter, and oh yeah, MEAT. That one I've got a fixation with, and when I turned 10 and got a 22, it was rabbits and squirrels, at 12, white tail deer. In season, out of season, didn't matter, venison never went to waste in the holler.

Turned 18, left for college and never went back.

Do you understand NOW why I am not familiar with these guys?

No, not really. I understand what you explained that seems to indicate you knew all the pertinent parts of degrowth through other learning experiences, but I don't automatically link that to a specific reference that was quite prolific during the "we really did think peak oil was gonna kill us all" days.

I had a fair understanding from my own life and observations, I did not need to read the Cannon of Leak Oil literature to grock the issue.

That part I did get. I was under the mistaken assumption you were validating Duncan's work or the halfwits who were unfamiliar with his work themselves, as opposed to it being more...organic...in your case.

Have you read Farley Mowat “Sea of Slaughter”?

No. But having just looked it up, based on where it takes place I can see how you might be quite familiar with it. I'm a Leatherstocking Tales guy, James Fenimore Cooper.

Good for you for dealing with all those daunting challanges. It's funny, some plants thrive in sidewalk cracks, some wither in a hot house. What you did is not easy.

The tie to Peak Oil is that I view the world through a resource depletion lens. I guess I did that without having a verbal means of expressing it, I am only now developing the vocabulary thr language.

ONE way to look at the world is through resource usage. Loosing fresh water is pretty obvious and has immediate consequences. But the same dynamics apply to fossil fuels. One can view climate change as a resource depletion issue, Earth has a finite capability to detoxify our waste, that detoxification capability is the "resource".

Cooper is a anthropomorphic or humanist story teller. His tales are about humans and how they dealing primitive settings.

Fowat can write in that vein, either seriously or humorously. Particularly his earlier work.

What Fowat did in some books was to flip the perspective, to become a NON-HUMANIST story teller. He told the story of critters trying to live in a human effected world.

In fact, when he passed he left his estate, a rather wild stretch of estuary, to "the others". That is to the non-human inhabitants of the property. Of course he had to do that through a human organization, a necessity.

My favorite gun is a Ruger 77 in 22WMR. Keeps the pot full of squirrel. Not that I get much opportunity anymore.

[AdamB]

Good for you for dealing with all those daunting challanges. It's funny, some plants thrive in sidewalk cracks, some wither in a hot house. What you did is not easy.

See, I don't even view my history as "hard", or a challenge, it just...was. We all grew up that way in the back woods, and didn't know of anything else.

My favorite gun is a Ruger 77 in 22WMR. Keeps the pot full of squirrel. Not that I get much opportunity anymore.

My favorite was my slide action Remington Model 760, carbine version in 30-06. "3 deer with 3 rounds in 3 seconds" is one of my favorite stories from the "ol' days". Nowadays I can't stand venison.

[Newfie]

For deer I carry the same in .308.

[theluckycountry]

I wonder if anyone has formulated a plan for degrowth that doesn't destroy modern economies? I have personally instigated some degrowth measures, but these are trivial compared to the money I invested to get them rolling. Like your sailboat Newfie, it costs little to run but cost a lot up front didn't I'll bet. To me degrowth is buying a solid home and not swapping it out every 10 years as people are want to do these days. I still can't get my head around that one? It's like they have ants in their pants, but I think behind the trend is the fact that people aren't happy with their lifestyles (with themselves) and can't integrate with others so they continually move, to greener pastures.

I honestly think there is no such thing as degrowth unless it's forced poverty like experienced in the great depression and other prior setbacks. The onset of a darkage would be a good example of it. If we lived like the birds and the animals, in harmony with nature, we wouldn't need degrowth, we would have stasis. But we as civilized man are doomed to either Rabid growth or collapse it seems.

[Newfie]

Lucky,

That gets at the heart of the issue, how we do degrowth without destroying what is good?

I think it starts with doing something we have never done before which is to formulate what it is we, as a species, really value.

What is the meaning of life? Always a fun game at parties!

IMHO what we want, what I want, is to retain our knowledge and the ability to expand our knowledge while maintaining a sustainable ecosystem. I don’t even know if that is possible, but I think it is.

To figure this out I would start with figuring out what the limits of extraction are; and the Global Footprint people have been working in that. Then we need to shrink our extraction to below those limits. Then we can design a culture that can fit those limits.

It seems obvious to me that either we do something like this or return to the stone age, or disappear.

[theluckycountry]

Yes, it would take a collective effort, and the current political leadership and corporate leadership would all have to be shot first. Then all the people profiting off shares and other wealth measures linked to the over-extraction of resources. Yes you would have to shoot the worst of those as well because they would fight a transition tooth and nail. It's the standard method of course. Pol Pot, Stalin and Mao, Hitler, all of them and many others envisaged a transition to a vastly different order of society and they knew that the only way they could achieve it was to 'eliminate' all those who had a stake in the old system.

Of course I'm not really advocating shooting people, but it seems to be the typical way to fast track a massive change. Personally I see that massive change already in the offing with "you'll own nothing and be happy" With the orchestrated collapse of the driver behind our consumerist plunder, I.E. the global financial system.

I think it starts with doing something we have never done before which is to formulate what it is we, as a species, really value.
IMHO what we want, what I want, is to retain our knowledge and the ability to expand our knowledge while maintaining a sustainable ecosystem. I don’t even know if that is possible, but I think it is.

These points you raise, these 'wants' would be achieved no doubt if the financial system was collapsed. Certainly there would be a lot of pain for many but they would have a lot more time on their hands to discover what they really value once online shopping, cable TV and Disney World were taken out of the equation. Unfortunately during any period of major transition there is generally a lot of civil unrest as those who lose access to the old fight against the new. As for the knowledge, I don't see that going away. In fact in times of war knowledge and innovation is fast tracked isn't it.

It's why it's important to be prepared for the coming transition I believe, because I don't believe it will be given to us as a choice. It's important to have a lifestyle that isn't 100% dependent on the old system. But having said that it was almost impossible to prepare for those changes described in my first paragraph. It didn't matter then what you had, the state rolled over everything, and stole everything. In Pol Pot's Cambodia everyone was forced to leave the cities and take up agrarian lifestyles. You were given a couple of days and after that anyone found in the city was summarily executed. In Stalin's Russia your farm and all it contained became a state asset and you either moved out, or were again, summarily executed.

Yes, having preparations is important when facing times of great change, but equally important is having a Plan B, and a Plan C. Thankfully Australia is a Big place and there are many lightly populated areas where one can simply disappear.

[Newfie]

Degrowth getting some media space.

https://theconversation.com/critics-of- ... ble-211496

[Newfie]

Science Alert article has a piss poor title, the article is NOT about population per se but about resource use, excessive extraction.

Williamn Rees is the guy behind the Biological Footprint and has done the best work I know of on looking at resource usage in the big picture.

That sort of growth is unsustainable for our ecosphere, risking a 'population correction' that according to a new study could occur before the century is out.

The prediction is the work of population ecologist William Rees from the University of British Columbia in Canada. He argues that we're using up Earth's resources at an unsustainable rate, and that our natural tendencies as humans make it difficult for us to correct this "advanced ecological overshoot".

The result could be some kind of civilizational collapse that 'corrects' the world's population, Rees says – one that could happen before the end of the century in a worst case scenario. Only the richest and most resilient societies would be left.

"Homo sapiens has evolved to reproduce exponentially, expand geographically, and consume all available resources," Rees writes in his published paper.

https://www.sciencealert.com/major-popu ... t-predicts

[theluckycountry]

Degrowth getting some media space.

https://theconversation.com/critics-of- ... ble-211496

You may not have noticed, but earlier this month we passed Earth overshoot day, when humanity’s demands for ecological resources and services exceeded what our planet can regenerate annually.

and

Earth Overshoot Day marks the date when humanity’s demand for ecological resources and services in a given year exceeds what Earth can regenerate in that year.

Odd conclusion, considering that our demands for Ocean fish; coal and oil, forest timber, iron ore, gold and diamonds, and nearly anything else you can think of "exceeded what our planet can regenerate annually." long long ago.

I see what this "Earth Overshoot" day is trying to do, it's trying to raise awareness like everyone doesn't already know? But in reality all it achieves is normalizing the insanity, like the facade of congress raising the debt ceiling over and over again, like there is some thought behind it, some analysis of "Yes we can manage another 5T in debt..." Where in reality if they don't raise it the entire government collapses into bakruptsy and the nation comes to a grinding halt.

"Oh look at this years overshoot day! It's a little worse than last year's isn't it? Never mind, lets see what next year's looks like before we jump to any conclusions. "

Now there is a commonly held belief that every little bit helps, but I see no evidence of this being the case in matters of overshoot, conservation, or degrowth. In fact many of these "little bits", like strip mining for lithium production, to build electric cars, is actually exacerbating the problems we face. In 10-15 years all those EV's built so far will be in the junkyard and the batteries are NOT recyclable, at least not for the Li content. So what did that achieve aside from creating extra industry to mine and manufacture a more expensive and resource hungry product?

A better plan, other issues aside, would be to have simply outlawed the production of any personal vehicle with an engine capacity greater than 2L and once that was in place move on to the next degrowth step. Not to debate the efficacy of this, just to state the fact that it would save a hell of lot on oil and metal and rubber and highway degradation than the building of fleets of big heavy Teslas.

Ecology, overshoot, carrying capacity. Once you look into these issues long enough, and most importantly, Are Not Getting Paid to look into them! Then if you are honest with yourself you will come to the obvious conclusion that you, and nearly everyone you know, has no desire whatsoever to give up their modern luxuries for the sake of the planet. We are like drivers nearing the end of the Le Mans 24 hour, we know the car has been stressed to near breaking point but we still keep hard on the gas because we want to finish and win if we can. All other considerations are secondary to this aim. We want our Win.

Never have I seen anyone give up anything of real consequence, it's all just virtue signalling and that makes debates on the issue of "Fixes" totally meaningless and actually a negative in terms of preparing for a world that will, and is, already undergoing de-growth. When I say preparing I mean personally, because degrowth is gathering pace and creating a lot of losers like the homeless across the nations. All the real solutions to degrowth are personal and always were because humans are selfish creatures. Little different to a Bobcat or a feral pig.



Modern LED and HID lighting can save a lot in terms of alternator output and hence fuel consumption over a 24h race. Isn't that a win for the environment?

[Newfie]

Why not just cancel the race?

Or where you trying to be ironic?

In either case you may wish to read the next post I linked about Rees. He and another came upbwith the for calculating Earths regeneration capacity and monitoring our usage.

Oh, and I heard a limited exposure interview with him (or his partner?). Stuff he won't say to a larger audience. Would only think you are negative about the future, compared to him you are a positive PollyAnna.

Not trying to be a jerk here. Just noting this guy spent his life doing the math, he is NOT optimistic.

[theluckycountry]

Why not just cancel the race?

Or where you trying to be ironic?

being supercilious probably.

In either case you may wish to read the next post I linked about Rees. ...compared to him you are a positive PollyAnna.

Yes well, Rees is no doubt correct in many of his projections, but that does not mean things will turn out the way he expects. In my economy, If there is a tsunami coming, so to speak, it hardly matters how high it will run, all that matters is that I get as far away and as high above the waterline as possible. In this respect I believe I have done as much as I can. Now as for the " Earth's sixth mass extinction" Did you ever read or listen to the work of professor Guy McPherson ? He got the ball rolling on all that.

In 2007 McPherson predicted the USA's trucking industry would collapse by 2012 due to peak oil
In 2008 he predicted the end of civilization by 2018 due to peak oil

I listened to his pods back in the 2010's, just for giggles. here he is today, still at it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AK-O5hICxE
Check out the vid Newfie, if just to observe the interviewer. She's cute, but obviously "out there" in an intense way. She sounds South African but could be a NZ girl? There are a lot of flakey people in NZ, they were the ones that took over his podcast back in the day when no one else would. He himself went off to live in a mud hut and practice a gift economy. Still being remunerated by the uni of course.

Guy R. McPherson is an American scientist, professor emeritus of natural resources and ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of Arizona. He is known for inventing and promoting doomer fringe theories such as Near-Term Human Extinction (NTHE), which predicts human extinction by 2026.

https://guymcpherson.com/interviews/ Nature Bats last Show

Mathematics is a wondrous science but it has obvious limits once it leaves the blackboard and starts meddling in biological systems, geological systems, Weather Systems! I think a lot of smart scientific people out there have put too much faith in their theories and models in this regard. Couple that with the conceited attitude that we are so smart and so powerful (mankind) that we can now destroy the whole planet's systems and you get the rise of these DELUSIONALISTS.

[theluckycountry]

I haven't seen a post by adam in a week? He must have breached his parole.

[Newfie]

In his last post he said he was going to take some time off from PO.

[theluckycountry]

In his last post he said he was going to take some time off from PO.

lol, we could all probably do with that. I hope he comes back, I miss seeing all his ignored posts after mine. He reminded of me of one of those little rat dogs that nip at your heels.