[theluckycountry]

Instead it is all bull$hit narratives and propaganda. Despite it being the "information age" no high quality information is available. The increasing noise drowns out retreating signal.

The excess labor of 3 or so generations has been converted into digital nothings like pensions, stock in Tesla, etc. As each year goes by there is less and less real stuff. Imagine if all the savings worldwide had have bought up stuff, how depleted those mines and forests would be today. It's a confidence game. Cash usage in the UK has gone through the roof, at all time highs as poor people turn to it. They have discovered they spend a lot less when they have to count out notes instead of swiping cards. I was grabbing a burger at a country eatery today and the guy in front of me payed by passing his watch over the reader. One day it will be his wrist, with a chip embedded in it.

People are going back to cash to keep tighter control on their spending as living costs soar, according to new research by the Post Office. Post offices handled £801m in personal cash withdrawals in July, the most since records began five years ago. That's up more than 20% from a year earlier.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-62437819

[Newfie]

Perpetual growth is a failed model and it should be obvious. It is like selling “Perpetual Motion Machines”. But obviously many or most, at advanced positions in government, finance and economics have never learned basic science. And. We The People simply trudge along.

Not much we can do about it, humanity will awaken eventually. That may make the French Revolution seem mild.

In the mean time, what are the short term events? How quickly will it unroll? Who will he first to be hurt most?

Along these lines I have been following this analyst Peter Zeihan. I don’t hang in his every word, and I think his message is rather narrow, aimed to a particular target group. None-the-less is aware of these forces and watching how the world unravels. He makes a good case that the NAFTA countries will be the least badly hurt. It is interesting to see his personal choices, he moved from Texas into the Colorado (?) rockies and has invested in personal solar, although I din’t know the particulars.

[AdamB]

It is interesting to see his personal choices, he moved from Texas into the Colorado (?) rockies and has invested in personal solar, although I din’t know the particulars.

Needless to say, those of us who have been here in 2 different centuries now are hardly thrilled with the idiocy that Texans AND Californians have brought with them. Like they know any more about living in the mountains than a walrus does.

[jato0072]

In the mean time, what are the short term events? How quickly will it unroll? Who will he first to be hurt most?

The Globalist Elite are have set 2030 as their target date. They want to limit and control carbon use among among the middle / working class. CBDCs, if successfully implemented, will allow them to program currencies and implement almost unlimited control of populations. Of course the elite will still have their mansions, yachts and private jets.

Short term (I am not sure how that is defined) before 2030? I expect the marginal countries to continue to unravel. South Africa is a prime example. One would want to dust of Duncan's Olduvai Theory and compare it to South Africa.

The real open question which nobody can answer with any accuracy is: When does the fossil fuel decline begin? I am thinking sometime before 2050, but I don't know. After fossil fuel production and the subsequent decline occurs, the global aggregate degrowth will begin. I am utterly convinced humans will produce and consume every fossil fuel resource they can get their hands on. The so called "climate change" religion will become extinct once enough people are starving. I see wars and conflicts on the horizon.

The financial system, banks will print and holes will be filled with money and credit. I expect cycles of high inflation unevenly distributed among different economies. Elites will be bailed out and the middle class will shrink.

[jato0072]

Perpetual growth is a failed model and it should be obvious.

To most of us here on this website, yes. Most people I have talked to in person over the last 20 years think the United States has 200+ years of fossil fuels left in the ground. To them, "we" are obviously wrong. I think very few people actually believe in Peak Oil (fossil fuel) production, Limits to Growth, etc.

A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it.

[AdamB]

Short term (I am not sure how that is defined) before 2030? I expect the marginal countries to continue to unravel. South Africa is a prime example. One would want to dust of Duncan's Olduvai Theory and compare it to South Africa.

Permanent rolling blackouts in North America in 2008 not happening are relevant to North Africa? Duncan claimed that this would happen for lack of natural gas...not only was joke on him...but South African makes about the same amount of natural gas as a COUNTRY as Susquehanna COUNTY in Pennsylvania. South Africa is going down the tubes because they are going to produce less of something they have not much of in the first place?

The real open question which nobody can answer with any accuracy is: When does the fossil fuel decline begin? I am thinking sometime before 2050, but I don't know. After fossil fuel production and the subsequent decline occurs, the global aggregate degrowth will begin. I am utterly convinced humans will produce and consume every fossil fuel resource they can get their hands on. The so called "climate change" religion will become extinct once enough people are starving. I see wars and conflicts on the horizon.

Well obviously peak oil happened decades ago now (and if you don't like that nonsense peak oil story, the current one claimed is 2018) so now we just need to wait around for peak coal and natural gas. And Jimmy Carter told us that the US was the Saudi Arabia of coal, so we'll be fine in that regard, and most of us around here being American, we might not choose to worry about what happens to the less resource fortunate of the world...let them build windmills.

[theluckycountry]

Perpetual growth is a failed model and it should be obvious...

Along these lines I have been following this analyst Peter Zeihan... It is interesting to see his personal choices, he moved from Texas into the Colorado (?) rockies and has invested in personal solar, although I din’t know the particulars.

It's a trend with a lot of people well regarded in the fields of finance/analysis. Lots of big money has bought up down in New Zealand and Australia, as well as the Virgin Islands etc. In simple terms it's called the "bugout". Years ago I followed the financial opinion of Jim Rodgers, he bailed out of his New York mansion lifestyle to move to Singapore because he 'said' it was fast becoming the financial hub of Asia. It didn't hurt that his new wife was Asian. Imagine living in a city where no one defecates in the street, in fact where no rubbish is dropped and there is a zero tolerance on drugs. The Woke will complain about Singapore's dictatorial leader but at the end of the day it's a fantastic place to live for decent law abiding people.

Zeihan probably saw a better lifestyle for himself up in the mountains. You don't need to be a multi-millionaire to make the move either, or be one to invest in solar or Gold. I learnt long ago that if we follow in the footsteps of the wealthy and wise we can have a good measure of their lifestyles.

Singapore.

[jato0072]

A Singaporean man convicted of trying to traffic around 2.2 pounds of cannabis was executed on Wednesday, a sentence lambasted by rights groups and campaigners for its severity at a time when many other nations, including neighboring countries, have adopted a more lenient approach towards drugs and capital punishment.

Singapore executes man for trafficking two pounds of cannabis

I love their law and order.

Capital punishment in Singapore

Capital punishment in Singapore is a legal penalty. Executions in Singapore are carried out by long drop hanging, and they usually take place at dawn. Thirty-three offences—including murder, drug trafficking, terrorism, use of firearms and kidnapping—warrant the death penalty under Singapore law.

[AdamB]

The excess labor of 3 or so generations has been converted into digital nothings like pensions, stock in Tesla, etc.

Don't know what you live off in your retirement other than trading your gold for the occasional bar tab, but I"ve got plenty of family with those "digital nothings like pensions" and guess what, they aren't nothings. Where do you get these weird ideas, is this what you overlords tell you to believe?

[AdamB]

The Woke will complain about Singapore's dictatorial leader but at the end of the day it's a fantastic place to live for decent law abiding people.

Sounds like what residents of states since subjugated and having been subjected to the local Overlord's propaganda might fall for. As opposed to countries capable of freeing themselves hundreds of years ago, with both the good and bad that followed. Those countries put people on the moon in the LAST century, citizens of those other ones can't build a Ferris wheel in this one.

[Newfie]

There are many paths forward, some will be more successful than others.

The USA, or NAFTA countries in general, will likely ride out the next 2 decades better than average. Or so I am told, but makes sense.

And I likely don’t have 2 decades left, so there is that.

When speaking longer term, say 100 to 300 years all predictions look pretty grim. From my readings it seems more flexible countries tend to do better simply because they can adapt more quickly. Japan had been hit hard by the aging population thing and has nit the flexibility to allow immigration. That stifles their economics but does retain a rather cohesive population with little strife.

Africa seems to he a place not to be. Exploding population but great civil problems between races, cultures, religions, mixed with highly armed and unstable governments. Africa is a lit like Europe in the Dark Ages, every one fighting everyone, no winners.

Extreme authoritarian regimes have some merit but frequently collapse because of their inflexibility. Because they are intolerant they have a hard time building wider alliances. And Stalin and Mao each murdered millions of their own, so there is that.

As for us, we float around on our “yacht” off grid. Then take a break and visit family. But even our low impact life style is highly dependent upon international trade and a generally peaceful world order. Take something real simple, we cook on a kerosene stove. Very low tech, 120 year old technology, it is what Shackelton used, I can maintain it myself, needs no electricity. But I do need to get spare parts from the UK, kerosene or jet fuel for fuel, and alcohol for pre-heating. None of that grows out of the ground, it all requires some industrial base and shipping. When that goes we have a looong way to fall.

[AdamB]

As for us, we float around on our “yacht” off grid. Then take a break and visit family. But even our low impact life style is highly dependent upon international trade and a generally peaceful world order. Take something real simple, we cook on a kerosene stove. Very low tech, 120 year old technology, it is what Shackelton used, I can maintain it myself, needs no electricity. But I do need to get spare parts from the UK, kerosene or jet fuel for fuel, and alcohol for pre-heating. None of that grows out of the ground, it all requires some industrial base and shipping. When that goes we have a looong way to fall.

Would you say that should a societal collapse stop you from getting your cooking fuels, that your floating lifestyle would come to as much of a halt as commuters needing their fuels to get to work, or could you find a work around and continue?

[Newfie]

Yes, not just kero (or jet fuel) but also diesel. And our sails are made of plastic, and the hoses, and the engine needs oil filters and fan belts.

Who amongst us, even the Amish, would not surfer greatly from a general collapse of world trade, which would come from a loss of liquid fuels.

It is more a question of who would die first. If you live on the 20th floor of a high rise you need electricity 100% of the time to run elevators, get water, flush more than once or twice, heat, AC, even just ventilation. With out electricity someone with mobility problems and no assistance will be dead in 72 hours. It may he worse on street level if rioting breaks out and the stores are vandalized.

The only places I know who MIGHT sustain through a collapse would be Cuba, Dominican Republic and Dominica. Think about Cuba, they went through some pretty hash times and folks lost something like 30 pounds on average. Ghat was not a total collapse and they have a 12 month growing season with good annual rain fall and were not excessively overweight urbanized when it occurred yet it was hard on them.

DR would immediately be over run by Haitians, but they would just kill them all and move on. The spend a month or 2 in Dominica every year, they may allow me in, but it would be a close run thing.

[ralfy]

Related:

"The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil" (2006)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeM5emtaVC0

[AdamB]

Who amongst us, even the Amish, would not surfer greatly from a general collapse of world trade, which would come from a loss of liquid fuels.

Well, the Amish aren't amongst us much if you've ever spent much time near or around the diehards of the type. They have various degrees of dependency on modern stuff, but the more primitive live close enough to the land that I'm not sure they would be bothered all that much by all the others in America dropping dead out of fear of not having fountain soft drinks and Walmarts available.

The only places I know who MIGHT sustain through a collapse would be Cuba, Dominican Republic and Dominica. Think about Cuba, they went through some pretty hash times and folks lost something like 30 pounds on average. Ghat was not a total collapse and they have a 12 month growing season with good annual rain fall and were not excessively overweight urbanized when it occurred yet it was hard on them.

Cuba did learn how to live as close to subsistence and not be Amish as most anyone, although I'll bet there are some Third World countries out there that never even made it upscale enough to owning half century old Chevys and keeping them running that we just haven't heard much about.

DR would immediately be over run by Haitians, but they would just kill them all and move on. The spend a month or 2 in Dominica every year, they may allow me in, but it would be a close run thing.

Have you ever seen the deforestation pictures at the Haitian/DR border? An amazing contrast between two styles of running a country.

[AdamB]

Related:

"The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil" (2006)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeM5emtaVC0

Quite a popular theme and topic back when the uninformed or faith based believers fell for peak oil. Some of the misrepresentations of peak oil in the video are reminders of the classic nonsense that was spoon fed to the faithful, nearly 20 years ago. It was like old home week watching the thing, more than a few giggling outbursts were involved. It had all the non discredited names and books Campbell, Deffeyes, Heinberg, Simmons, a greatest hits of the discredited. Who was Pat Murphy? Talk about someone who doesn't know squat about reservoir dynamics. The discovery chart that is censored shows up. A classic!

Talk about a walk down "how silly can peakers be" lane!

[theluckycountry]

It is more a question of who would die first. If you live on the 20th floor of a high rise you need electricity 100% of the time to run elevators, get water, flush more than once or twice, heat, AC, even just ventilation.

Not necessarily. Lots of people live in skyscrapers without any of these amenities, you just have to go to places like post apartheid South Africa to see it.



The air is quite fresh once you smash out the windows



The Tower of David is an imposing monolith that looms 45 stories over downtown Caracas, Venezuela



If you're at the bottom of the food chain you're already there. Many will do just fine, it's the middle-class that will be eating their own children, so to speak.

[theluckycountry]

Related:

"The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil" (2006)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeM5emtaVC0

Those masses were already poor, plus they had been living under a total dictatorship for so long they simply did what they were told. I don't think these 'cases' have much to offer the Western World with it's entitlement ( I certainly have it ) mindset, and unwillingness to pull together in crises.

PeakOilers' have been forever looking for the "solution" to the collapse of western civilization due to oil depletion, and the masses while they are not stupid, they are ignorant, and they know hard times are ahead. When Elon Musk started saying his cars were zero carbon and could let them tool off into the future regardless of oil prices they took the marketing hook line and sinker. Shallow thinkers, ignorant, they were concerned only with their own pleasures. Who cares if children slaving in mines are dying by the droves in Africa to extract the Cobalt for their batteries, They turn a blind eye and demand their Tesla.

You get a crisis in the west and you have as many looters show up as people who want to help. The recent flood in New Zealand was a classic case. The assorted NZ gangs showed up and started taking anything that wasn't nailed down, the Minister though took a strong stance against them and told them to "Pull their heads in" WoW! How dare he use such confronting words. The regions effected had to form their own militias and since most of the guns there are in criminal hands...

Police are committed to being visible around the community, as long-standing gang tensions spark firearms incidents in flood-ravaged Hawke's Bay, says Police Eastern District commander Jeanette Park

Ahhh, a soft hearted Woman in control, no need to get rough, just drive around in circles and scare the hardened gang members that way.
https://cdn.hbapp.co.nz/news/news/video ... hawkes-bay

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politi ... hawkes-bay

[Newfie]

That Tower of David was interesting, I glossed a couple of articles on it. The self organizing civic association was interesting. And they had electricity installed.

Somethings no article discussed were water and sanitation.

But also heat and AC. This may work in Venezuela but is unlikely to get much traction in NYC or Chicago.

IMHO two things greatly under appreciated are water and heat. All of the Bahamas and the older Caribbean islands use desalinated water, as do many over developed places in the world.

Cuba, DR, and Dominica have abundant rain.

Heat is not a problem due the tropical latitude. NYC and Chicago not so much.

We have a house in Newfoundland, among family so we are welcome. Newfoundland was never self sufficient in food even though they exported a lot of protein in cod. Everyone had gardens for potatoes, cabbage and such. And a general purpose horse, sheep, maybe a pig or two, and chickens. But flour and molasses were important imports along with finished goods. Even today many living in the outports heat with wood. Mostly black spruce and larch and some birch. Accumulating a years supply of wood is no mean feat, and they now use chain saws and skidoos, not hand saws and horses. The island now imports over 90% of its food stuffs, and has lost the cod exports.

I am not saying we will have an overnight collapse hut was responding to Adams question about the viability of a sailboat in a post collapse world. If a sudden collapse occur, where trade routes were severely disrupted, many would be in a world of hurt. And I do not see cities fairing well, especially in cooler climates where heat is a necessity.

[AdamB]

Related:

"The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil" (2006)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeM5emtaVC0

Those masses were already poor, plus they had been living under a total dictatorship for so long they simply did what they were told.

Same as the countries of the Commonwealth your country has been in for centuries now, subject to the whims of the Monarch. I recommend growing a pair, making your own way in the world.

A hint...giving everything to the Chinese at discount prices ain't it.