[Graeme]

'Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project' Outlines Cooperation, Ingenuity Needed To Halt Climate Catastrophe

Carbon emissions have been rising since the start of the Industrial Revolution. But they’ll have to be curbed soon, and sharply, to keep the globe from warming above “safe” levels. A new report lays out avenues to get there and shows that while it’s possible, it’ll take a little human ingenuity and a lot of global cooperation.

A draft of the report, called the “Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project,” was delivered to the United Nations on Tuesday. It was developed by researchers working in the 15 countries that have the highest CO2 emissions and shows how each of those countries could rapidly reduce its emissions by 2050.

International negotiators looking to strike a climate deal have agreed to try to limit warming to 2°C. And scientists have outlined how much more carbon we can emit to likely keep warming below 2°C, calling it a carbon budget. It’s just like a household budget except going over it could increase the likelihood of major sea level rise, an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events, and a rapid decline in Arctic sea ice.

“We’ve just about exhausted the carbon budget. The world is unfortunately engaged in a massive gamble,” said Jeff Sachs, director of Columbia University’s Earth Institute and one of the leaders of the new report.

According to the new report, annual CO2 emissions would have to be slashed to 11 gigatons from our current level of about 36 gigatons by 2050. Put another way, each of the world’s 7 billion people is responsible for 5.2 tons of CO2 emissions each year (though much of that comes from developed countries). By 2050, there will be another 2.5 billion people, and annual per capita CO2 emissions will likely have to be reduced to 1.6 tons to keep warming within the 2°C range.

If that sounds daunting, it is. The world’s governments have failed to take meaningful action to get to those levels, in part because it means leaving a lot of fossil fuels, and the riches that go with them, in the ground. But it doesn’t mean it can’t be achieved.

“The basic conclusion of this report is the 2°C limit is achievable, but just barely. We’ve gone on so far with rising CO2 emissions, and greenhouse gas emissions more generally, that we’re just about out of time to meet this crucial limit,” Sachs said.

huffingtonpost

[rollin]

The last time the climate warmed, glaciers covered a good portion of the earth's surface. That change happened with about 0.5 watt/m2 of radiative forcing.
With the combination of anthropomorphic GHG, albedo changes from melting ice, feedbacks from warming tundra and shallow areas of the arctic ocean; the radiative forcing will approach 10 watt/m2.

These guys really think they that cutting back a portion of our fossil fuel burning will stop this juggernaut of climate change?

[farmlad]

These guys really think they that cutting back a portion of our fossil fuel burning will stop this juggernaut of climate change?

Your right; as the experts will all tell us, the levels are already way to high, not counting the feedback loops. But when they talk about doing something its only focused on reducing additional carbon or at the best, using tremendous amounts of energy and often from fossil fuels to pump it into the ground. How can all the experts have it so wrong?
I am quite convinced that the major contributor to the overload of atmospheric carbon dioxide is agriculture, and I am equally convinced that agriculture, by using solar energy through the process of Photosynthesis is our best and only realistic option to get all that carbon back out of the air and into our soils where it can do us some good. http://www.amazingcarbon.com/

[efarmer]

The inertia of the exploit of fossil carbon fuels is vast and the associated investments, dependence thereon, and the ability to make profit on every aspect of their supply and usage including financial speculation on supply dynamics will not allow the impact to be addressed while the exploit is still possible and therefore lucrative. Such a boat must sink before any reasonable passenger
jumps out and swims for survival.

Photosynthesis will right the imbalance, but not during the exploit, IMHO it will not be an emergency operation to save the patient, but rather a nice green cover on the grave. Photosynthesis can then takes it's sweet time, unencumbered and evolutionary instead of revolutionary, and repair the damage. Our lifetimes are not meaningful in the scale of this at all.

[Rod_Cloutier]

Unfortunately, alot of people aren't with the program. Here's a link to where people are deliberately using dirty fuel to spite 'Greenies' :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=p ... VofrEs#t=0

I wonder how many people living carbon reduced lifestyles will be needed to offset this sort of behavior?

[farmlad]

[quote="

Photosynthesis will right the imbalance, but not during the exploit, IMHO it will not be an emergency operation to save the patient, but rather a nice green cover on the grave. Photosynthesis can then takes it's sweet time, unencumbered and evolutionary instead of revolutionary, and repair the damage. Our lifetimes are not meaningful in the scale of this at all.[/quote]

I see no indication that you read even one of the articles in the link. It may take centuries for an inch of topsoil to form from pure rock but I am witnessing inches of high organic matter/carbon soil forming in just the last 5 years in my pastures. FYI I don't see this happening in CRP fields. What these CRP fields lack is managed, grazing, dunging, urinating, and trampling herbivores. Thats what it takes to add tons (and I'm talking real tons) of carbon (not CO2 ) to each and every acre of depleted soils. an increase of 2% soil organic matter in a 6 inch profile of soil will also increase that soils water holding capacity by 1 inch, and also increase the rate of water infiltration, so less flooding damage downhill and more clean groundwater. Its just to bad that our love for technology and our disregard for nature has so blinded us to the solutions that could be well within our reach.

[efarmer]

Farmlad, I find your inspiration and methodology to be wonderful and I agree that it is effective and I am glad you are pursuing it. I have an opinion, and it is just that, if remediation efforts have a chance at being adopted on the global and unprecedented scale required, it will be piloted by folks like you. Kudos.
efarmer

[Graeme]

Deep Decarbonization Draft Offers “Transformational” Climate Strategies (VIDEO)

As unprecedented storms, extinctions, and water, food, and energy wars continue to touch our world, warnings about destructive human-made climate change multiply and increase in stridency. At the United Nations in New York yesterday, some possible solutions were officially released. (VIDEO available here.)

Experts from leading world research institutes convened several years ago on 15 country research teams under the auspices of the international Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) and the Paris-based nonprofit Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI). They partnered with four other organizations (the German Development Institute, International Energy Agency, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) to compile the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project report.



The report says that success rests on these three key actions (“pillars”):

Energy efficiency improvement,

Low-carbon electric production, and

Fuel switching from carbon-intensive sources (esp. coal) to renewables.

The authors outline steps that 12 of the 15 selected countries (Australia, Canada, China, France, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, United Kingdom, United States; India, Brazil, and Germany still in progress) can take to meet the internationally agreed two-degree target. They base the pathways on based on economic and population profiles and projections.

cleantechnica

[Graeme]

Efficiency, renewables, biofuels key to stopping climate change

The 15 national pathways examined in the report all show the importance of three factors for achieving radically lower carbon emissions.

The first is greatly increased efficiency and conservation in all energy use.

The second factor is taking the carbon out of electricity by using renewable sources, "such as wind and solar, as well as nuclear power, and/or the capture and sequestration of carbon emissions from fossil-fuel burning".

Nuclear energy still attracts widespread and determined opposition, and carbon capture and sequestration (trapping CO2 emissions and storing them underground or beneath the sea floor) has not yet proved that it can work on a commercial scale.

The third factor involves replacing fossil fuels in transport, heating and industrial processes with a mix of low-carbon electricity, sustainable biofuels, and hydrogen.

The authors say their interim report shows the critical long-term importance of preparing national deep decarbonisation plans for 2050.

Emmanuel Guerin, the DDPP's senior project manager, said the pathways were crucial to shaping the expectations of countries, businesses and investors.

abc

[Tanada]

I never thought I would say this, but reading through this thread I rather miss Graeme and his endless optimism that Solartopia is just around the corner and will pop up any day now....

[ROCKMAN]

T - So do I. But a person can have his fantasies pissed only so long until he picks up his ball and those home. I tried many times to get him to consider the economic implications of his ideas and tyupically only got back more untenable ideas. But he was a good source of alt ideas.