[PeakOiler]

Updated the North Slope chart with the most recent data (through August, 2012) from the EIA.



According to the article on the front page, the summer maintenance is finished and they're pumping the oil again. The preliminary estimates are in the article.

PO.com Article on Alaska N. Slope Oil Production

Output averaged 571,269 barrels a day in October, up from 516,296 in September, the state’s tax division said on its website today.

Even at 571K bpd, that still put's them right above the exponential trendline, and below the ~600k bpd rate in January...

That 300k bpd redline is still getting closer...

[SamInNebraska]

Output averaged 571,269 barrels a day in October, up from 516,296 in September, the state’s tax division said on its website today.

Even at 571K bpd, that still put's them right above the exponential trendline, and below the ~600k bpd rate in January...

That 300k bpd redline is still getting closer...

Growth in amount produced is a good sign however, and if can continue doing so similar to what has been recently shown to be happening in the highest producing states in the Union, Texas and North Dakota, then maybe the pressure to build the pipeline through the sand hills of Nebraska will be unnecessary.

[Econ101]

ANWAR is just a small part of the crime committed by the US government when it began in earnest to force the politics of shortage on its citizens. Politics is at the heart of our energy problems and military deployment to The middle east an unintended consequence. Our energy shortage is political in nature. The evidence is becoming more abundant every day. Unfortunately our government continues to wage war on its citizens with the politics of shortage and oil. This has caused human suffering worldwide far exceeding even the most exaggerated environmental disruptions claimed by some to result from orderly energy development.

The Arctic is being developed with or without ANWAR. The pipeline is being maintained to assure markets for this huge energy inventory.

[AirlinePilot]

Have to disagree with your premise econ. I continue to see folks focus on US problems when the over arching issue has nothing really to do with US politics, but with global oil supply, and as of the last 5-6 years, declining Global Net Exports. The government here is not creating shortages, its creating a bidding war for those declining GLOBAL EXPORTS. The US is only one piece of the puzzle, and though we are a large one, our political foibles have a small impact on what economically viable oil is brought to markets.

I would frankly doubt that even lifting ALL drilling and licensing limitations for the forseeable future would make more than a small difference in US production numbers. Even if it did it will be YEARS down the road when it takes effect and all the while we continue old field declines and depletion.

[Arthur75]

A nice summary of Tad Patzek about US possible prod, with ANWAR being the little black bell curve :

http://patzek-lifeitself.blogspot.fr/20 ... -peak.html

Otherwise Econ101, really don't understand what "shortage politics" you're talking about ..., what is it ?

[dissident]

A nice summary of Tad Patzek about US possible prod, with ANWAR being the little black bell curve :

http://patzek-lifeitself.blogspot.fr/20 ... -peak.html

Otherwise Econ101, really don't understand what "shortage politics" you're talking about ..., what is it ?

So-called conservative talk radio drones keep bleating that there are a trillion barrels of oil locked away by big bad government in places like ANWAR. Eventually, this propaganda becomes accepted wisdom.

[Beery1]

...It is unclear whether the pipeline will be shut after the cleaning pig has been captured...

They make a pig clean the pipes? Does PETA and the SPCA know about this?

And how do they capture a pig that's greased down with crude oil inside a pipe? Maybe they could tempt it with a piece of bacon.

[PeakOiler]

Updated graph (through Sept):



EIA data for September was lower than the estimate given in the article I posted a link to (one page back).

[Econ101]

A nice summary of Tad Patzek about US possible prod, with ANWAR being the little black bell curve :

http://patzek-lifeitself.blogspot.fr/20 ... -peak.html

Otherwise Econ101, really don't understand what "shortage politics" you're talking about ..., what is it ?

So-called conservative talk radio drones keep bleating that there are a trillion barrels of oil locked away by big bad government in places like ANWAR. Eventually, this propaganda becomes accepted wisdom.

Your graph is pure speculation intended to prove a point not provide information.

The polItics of shortage in Alaska is the federal goverment denying access to the vast reserves available there. There is no shortage of oil in Alaska, only a shortage of political will.

The politics of shortage in North Dakota are represented by the 8 lawsuits North Dakota has brought against the EPA for violating states rights. In addition there is constant harassment by the Feds. The state takes a cooperative posture protecting environmental resources while maximizing production.

The witch hunt against fracking is another example of the politics of shortage playing out.

[Econ101]

Yup. The enviro-nazis won't allow us to drill a lateral up Roosevelt's nose. It would be good for him. Clear out the old boy's sinuses with frac-neti job.

Prime example of enviro absurdity. Whats the point of making that joke? Obviously if we were going to drill Rushmore out we would start on the top of his head.

[MrEnergyCzar]

I'm guessing in 5-10 years, just a random guess based on the annual 5.5% production decline rate. I'm not an Alaskan expert but wanted to talk about it in my Peak Oil news show. I want to present something on the pipeline slowdown over the years in general. What's the consensus here regarding what the cutoff is of oil flow through the pipeline before it will have to be closed? Can it flow with 400,000b/d or less? In 1988 over 2 mb/day flowed. Now it's just over .5/mb/day.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Al ... ction.html

MrEnergyCzar

[PeakOiler]

Well, it appears that after the summer maintenance was finished on the TAPS, the flow rate did not reach the level from a year ago. We'll see what happens over the next few months. The chart data are through November, 2012:

[MD]

Years ago there was talk of minimum flow rates just below where it is today. The short and simple reason is that when the flow is too slow the product will cool to the point where it's too viscous to keep moving down the line without pressurizing past safety limits.

I am sure they will figure out ways to keep it flowing by either reheat stations or mixing or something, at least in the short term. There's a lot of paid-for infrastructure in place. A few hundred thousands barrels per day of established production won't be abandoned lightly in these times.

I believe the more pressing issue is maintenance. That pipeline is old. Miles upon miles of it stand above ground exposed to the elements.

So to answer your question, I do not think you will get a consensus view. We won't know the final number until it finally stops flowing for good.

[MD]

Good one p. The 300k redline is not necessarily an absolute. Winter might be higher. Summer somewhat lower. Plus again the smart boys will likely figure ways to tweak it along.

Time will tell, and we won't have to wait too long.

[Plantagenet]

Alaska Oil Pipeline will be operational for another 32 years

The Trans-Alaska Pipeline System will be operational for another 32 years, say companies

Of course, the pipeline might be operational but not have enough oil input to keep operating----time will tell.


32 more years?

[Plantagenet]

the truth is, the North Slope is finished long before 2044.

Maybe...maybe not.

Oil has been coming down the pipeline for 36 years so far, and the Prudhoe Bay field is far past its peak. However, there are several other potential sources for more oil to feed the pipeline for another 32 years.

1. The smaller oil fields at and around the existing Prudhoe Bay reservoir---these are well known---some have heavy oil and some have complex geology, but they do have oil.

2. Offshore on the shelf north of Prudhoe Bay ---- some drilling has been done.

3. Oil shales in the Brooks Range ----- drilling is permitted to start

4. ANWR. --- some drilling has been done.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Years ago there was talk of minimum flow rates just below where it is today. The short and simple reason is that when the flow is too slow the product will cool to the point where it's too viscous to keep moving down the line without pressurizing past safety limits.

I believe the more pressing issue is maintenance. That pipeline is old. Miles upon miles of it stand above ground exposed to the elements.

MD, I believe you have it exactly right. I'm 99% sure I saw a documentary or read an article a couple months back and the expert echoed the issues you cite. If I recall, the maintenance gets much more expensive dealing with the cooling sludge once the flow rate gets low enough. So you have a double whammy -- less barrels and higher maintenance costs.

At some point it becomes so economically unproductive they just shut it down and take the loss. (I wonder if the EPA makes them clean up the mess, or they just leave it all to rust and rot away).

We now have Canada and Fracking. It's all about relative costs.