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Credit Crisis near an END

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby mos6507 » Mon 27 Oct 2008, 08:51:33

ReverseEngineer wrote:If they had money yesterday and it was invested in the Stock Market, they don't have it today. It all just burned up in the Greatest Bonfire of Paper Wealth in all of Recorded History.

Do churches really invest money in the stock market? That would be pretty weird if they did.
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Mon 27 Oct 2008, 08:56:11

mos6507 wrote:
ReverseEngineer wrote:If they had money yesterday and it was invested in the Stock Market, they don't have it today. It all just burned up in the Greatest Bonfire of Paper Wealth in all of Recorded History.
Do churches really invest money in the stock market? That would be pretty weird if they did.

What else would they do with the money? Keep it stuffed in mattresses?
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby jasonraymondson » Mon 27 Oct 2008, 09:10:13

ReverseEngineer wrote:
mos6507 wrote:
ReverseEngineer wrote:If they had money yesterday and it was invested in the Stock Market, they don't have it today. It all just burned up in the Greatest Bonfire of Paper Wealth in all of Recorded History.
Do churches really invest money in the stock market? That would be pretty weird if they did.
What else would they do with the money? Keep it stuffed in mattresses?

Good point
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby flapjax » Mon 27 Oct 2008, 09:47:04

jasonraymondson wrote:
ReverseEngineer wrote:
mos6507 wrote:
ReverseEngineer wrote:If they had money yesterday and it was invested in the Stock Market, they don't have it today. It all just burned up in the Greatest Bonfire of Paper Wealth in all of Recorded History.
Do churches really invest money in the stock market? That would be pretty weird if they did.
What else would they do with the money? Keep it stuffed in mattresses?
Good point

Yep, they put thier money in there just like everyone else. My buddy works for an international church who recently lost enough money in the market that they are on an expense/hiring freeze.
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby americandream » Mon 27 Oct 2008, 15:39:27

Novus wrote:
americandream wrote: Why would this failure impact on the nascent Asian consumer/worker who numbers a formidable 2 billion plus other than some vague risk posed by the loss of a percentage of one's market?

Think about it. For the last 30 years Asians have been the savers. They deposit money into their banks which then is lent overseas in the West so that Westerners can consume Asian made products. Every year they lend us more money and we buy more of their goods. All this time the Asians are expecting to be paid back but they NEVER will. The West is in the process of defaulting. The Hong Kong mega bank HSBC imploded today because of bad Western debt and sent the Hang Seng index down 1600 points. Most Asians and Asian governments will be ruined. Who is going to be the one to tell the 3 billion Asians who saved for 30 years that their savings are null and void? Good luck with that. I am sure it go over real well.


Yes, but will this Asian exasperation with western mismanagement lead to some form of self-inflicted regional economic suicide in Asia and thus global calamity? Hardly likely. Sounds absurd when framed in that context, does it not. Asia will march on with her agenda.

There will be increased global regulation as a consequence of this debacle, of that you can be sure. Much personal loss. And, the Asians themselves will, at some juncture commit the very same sin, that is guaranteed. That is the nature of exhuberant capital, its modus operandi.

We have yet many cycles to traverse as the reach of capital crosses the globe. This is an evolutionary phase, complete with all its gyrations. But catastrophic collapse, no.

That has yet to come and will be the defining point at which technology, secular thinking and change give birth to the next system. These are not utopian ideas born of dream and fantasy, merely the functions of objective cultural evolution as man rises up above the mists of his primitive past.

Like you, I am impatient for change. I feel cheated at not being able to be present at these moments I know shall come. Its annoying seeing the suffering, injustice and waste. Yet these events, as well as the philosophical insights they give rise to, are essential precursors to each step that follows.
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Mon 27 Oct 2008, 15:56:09

No, the smallest uint is the individual. He may have friends and family, but that does not make a tribe. It makes family and friends.
A network.

After the fall of Rome you saw egalitarianism across Europe until powers regrouped and began siezing control of local lands imposing 'taxes' and enslaving everyone.
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

The level of injustice and wrong you endure is directly determined by how much you quietly submit to. Even to the point of extinction.
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby americandream » Mon 27 Oct 2008, 16:09:06

Periodic losses of confidence due to overexhuberance will not, the system change. Instead the irreversible onset of negative growth.

Having said that, breaking free of this planet and its finite larder and opening new frontiers of land and resources may trigger another bout of capital.

I'm not sure we are anywhere near achieving that goal though, yet socialism may trigger this outcome and consequently, may well be equally transitory.
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby SweetSmellofMoney » Tue 28 Oct 2008, 09:07:47

americandream wrote:It's a rather fraught issue trying to understand the objective dynamics of systems from perhaps our own subjective preferences. However a system has within its its own dynamics of growth and regression. These are dispassionate forces akin to nature when she enters one or other phase of instability and in the process, wipes out entire species. Dispassionate, but deadly in it's terminal effects.


One can dispel most any point of view especially when it has been formed to suit the need, it kind of reminds me of

“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.”

Joseph Goebbels

One must first understand the like labor or commodities, currencies are in fact nothing more than another form of commodity under this principle the Global Macro/Micro Monetary Economies react or over react to all natural economic forces ie. counterfeit, over supply or hoarding.

Just as the failure to plant this years corn harvest, the hoarding of currencies will command the very same reaction even more so in an e-society where the FIAT has become nothing more than numbers on a white page and the manipulation of these numbers can be as easy as the stroke of a pen, whereas the labours required to plant the corn or mine the mine, cut the timber requires a actual labor

Therefore, when we begin talking about the current state of the Global Macro/Micro Monetary Economies we must first understand the above natural economic principles are at work, beginning with supply and demand,

Once everyone understand these basic principles the natural course will replace manipulations by finding an alternative natural flow, the risk to any manipulation will be the natural change where the corn farmer may find that the consumer finds they prefer beans or rice over corn, in turn defeating his attempts to manipulate supply and demand.

In fact that has been the very overreactivism which deflates bubble markets sending those very same commodities into a period of moribund as a matter of fact it works for all commodities whether it is Currencies, Crude, PM or labor where its real worth is only that which the buyer and seller are willing to trade.

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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby SweetSmellofMoney » Tue 28 Oct 2008, 09:20:06

Novus wrote:I agree the credit crisis is near its end but not in a positive way. We are rapidly coming to the point where the only way out is world wide credit default.

Its not the Doom and Gloom of over Creditized markets but the lack of control over the Risk Management.

Very much like the over construction not only in the US but Globally!

All bubble inflate and deflate while others take longer some react faster, it all comes down to supply and demand.
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby SweetSmellofMoney » Tue 28 Oct 2008, 09:24:21

americandream wrote:
Novus wrote:I agree the credit crisis is near its end but not in a positive way. We are rapidly coming to the point where the only way out is world wide credit default.
Corrections are never positive. The very essence of a correction is to negative a preceding positive, albeit one that exceeded the then carrying capacity of the system. I use the term "then" to distinguish the current severe reaction to what is in effect the exhaustion off all regional surplus from one that will be a terminal and global one.
That will be notable by the complete exhaustion of all surplus, labour and commodity. More significantly, there will be no degree of demand destruction capable of destroying commodity unit cost other than the absolute destruction of global labour unit cost. The translates in a word, into class war.
Consequently, one would be advised to make hay whilst the sun shines in this downturn for there a good times yet to come.

Very Impressive!

I must commend you on you optimism of truth vs contribed fiction.

GL
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby SweetSmellofMoney » Tue 28 Oct 2008, 09:27:47

ReverseEngineer wrote:
americandream wrote:The fact that the outcome will be a collective one seems a reasonable inference given that at that point in history we will have exhausted all others ranging from pure markets to corporatist interventionism and failed. A dying planet may possibly alter this picture otherwise I have yet to be convinced by any of the other options.
Have you considered Tribalism?

Again we have a return to the natural course whether it be in economics, health or for that matter weather!

Before there were cities there were tribes etc...
And there we have it!

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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby SweetSmellofMoney » Tue 28 Oct 2008, 09:42:40

Hogan wrote:And he still has ignorant followers today, even in the face of total economic armageddon. Go figure.[smilie=dontknow.gif]

Wow! The natural course is for everything to evolve organically, whether it was China's attempt at Communism or Russia misunderstanding of Marxism just as Democracy must continue to evolve or for that matter Capitalism.

What we have here is a failure to except the things we can not change, nobody could possibly know what tomorrows trends will be although we may assume this or that reality dictates quite differently.

Just as in the case of Banking although many may argue that Marxism can not exist it does so as we speak in Modern day Banking, just the facts.

These are the underlining truths that confound the idealist whether he is striving for the Utopian society or that of a Kingdom and all else in between.
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby SweetSmellofMoney » Tue 28 Oct 2008, 09:49:43

Micki wrote:
SweetSmellofMoney wrote:Fellows, Currency is backed by your word and hard work not that of the Central Banks but the confidence that the man you are trading with has in you and you integrity and worth!
Is this a joke? A transaction is backed by the counter party you are dealing with but that counterparty doesn't dtermine the purchasing power of the payment. That is the job of the central bank and the government.

Madam, It all about confidence whether its that of the Central Bank or that of your village farmers market.

Confidence and Organic Evolution!
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby SweetSmellofMoney » Tue 28 Oct 2008, 09:53:53

americandream wrote:
Hogan wrote:And he still has ignorant followers today, even in the face of total economic armageddon. Go figure. [smilie=dontknow.gif]
Oh I have my moments of irrational outrage at aspects of modern civilisation. My own little sacred cows of do's and dont's. My own little wishlist. But yet history traverses her own indomitable course and we are fools who delude ourselves into thinking otherwise. Many of us on here if not all of us will not live to see the momentous changes that await us as a species, we may feel robbed at times in terms of the apparent injustice of it all, yet, it takes a degree of objectivity to recognise that what we are confronted with is but an element in a grander picture we may perhaps not be privileged to partake in directly. Yet each in our own way, leaves our own indelible print on this organic dynamic.

Outstanding response!

I must commend you!

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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby galacticsurfer » Tue 28 Oct 2008, 10:01:48

Americandream,

Weird name for a Marxist. I never heard much of that stuff coming of age in Reagan age, not being a hippy form the 60s or so. Sounds pretty heavy with all the totally thought through global historical perspective based on rsources and labour. I can see its attraction as comprehensive ideology. Capitalism is complete opposite, free hand and all that without any endgame except here and now and all that. What about reality however. If capital exploitaiton is based on resources and labour and resources are running out then labour will be reduced due to starvation to the point of resource availability stabilization of population. Bank credit is a lever to accelerate exploitation of resources by simulating future productive savings. Financial engineering has leveraged this principle 1000 fold or more and technology has done the same to resources(with oil driven diesel loaders you can get lots more coal / gold out of the ground than with a shovel). The whole capitalistic Marxist dichotomy is due to the accelerated pace of resource use in last 200 years and trying to make sense of what was going on. We willgo back to biology and religion and smaller groupings on local levels for sure. Global systems are exhausted and overstretched.
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby SweetSmellofMoney » Tue 28 Oct 2008, 10:02:11

americandream wrote:
Novus wrote:
americandream wrote: Why would this failure impact on the nascent Asian consumer/worker who numbers a formidable 2 billion plus other than some vague risk posed by the loss of a percentage of one's market?
Think about it. For the last 30 years Asians have been the savers. They deposit money into their banks which then is lent overseas in the West so that Westerners can consume Asian made products. Every year they lend us more money and we buy more of their goods. All this time the Asians are expecting to be paid back but they NEVER will. The West is in the process of defaulting. The Hong Kong mega bank HSBC imploded today because of bad Western debt and sent the Hang Seng index down 1600 points. Most Asians and Asian governments will be ruined. Who is going to be the one to tell the 3 billion Asians who saved for 30 years that their savings are null and void? Good luck with that. I am sure it go over real well.
Yes, but will this Asian exasperation with western mismanagement lead to some form of self-inflicted regional economic suicide in Asia and thus global calamity? Hardly likely. Sounds absurd when framed in that context, does it not. Asia will march on with her agenda.
There will be increased global regulation as a consequence of this debacle, of that you can be sure. Much personal loss. And, the Asians themselves will, at some juncture commit the very same sin, that is guaranteed. That is the nature of exhuberant capital, its modus operandi.
We have yet many cycles to traverse as the reach of capital crosses the globe. This is an evolutionary phase, complete with all its gyrations. But catastrophic collapse, no.
That has yet to come and will be the defining point at which technology, secular thinking and change give birth to the next system. These are not utopian ideas born of dream and fantasy, merely the functions of objective cultural evolution as man rises up above the mists of his primitive past.
Like you, I am impatient for change. I feel cheated at not being able to be present at these moments I know shall come. Its annoying seeing the suffering, injustice and waste. Yet these events, as well as the philosophical insights they give rise to, are essential precursors to each step that follows.

Sir, If is absolutely refeshing knowing that there is intelligent theory vs lies and fearmongering!

Where a objective understanding of organic evolution supersedes delusional thought!

Congratulation and I commend you!
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby SweetSmellofMoney » Tue 28 Oct 2008, 10:58:35

Oh!

The Sweet Smell Of Money!

Short getting taken to the slaughter!

Nobody can say you were not Warned! As this Credit Crisis passes we will soon see the Organic Evolutionist Contagion where wealth creation begins yet again!
GL
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby Falconoffury » Tue 28 Oct 2008, 16:16:34

Having said that, breaking free of this planet and its finite larder and opening new frontiers of land and resources may trigger another bout of capital.
I'm not sure we are anywhere near achieving that goal though, yet socialism may trigger this outcome and consequently, may well be equally transitory.

I'm sure that we are definitely nowhere near that goal.

The credit crisis may be over soon, but it will pave the way for a much bigger crisis. The next crisis will be based upon the scarcity for basic resources such as food, water, and energy.

Capitalism does not require endless growth, and it can exist in a no-growth economy. The banking system we use now requires growth, and that will have to be replaced. Communism is not inevitable.
"If humans don't control their numbers, nature will." -Pimentel
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby skeptik » Tue 28 Oct 2008, 16:39:10

SweetSmellofMoney wrote:Answer this!
There are no tricks, just pure logic, so good luck and don't give up.
1. In a street there are five houses, painted five different colours.
2. In each house lives a person of different nationality
3. These five homeowners each drink a different kind of beverage, smoke different brand of cigar and keep a different pet.
THE QUESTION: WHO OWNS THE FISH? Sir, answer the question and I may consider you point of view! LOL!

Is this a joke or are you an idiot? would seem to be the only question.

Pure logic indicates that there is *no* data provided to answer to WHO OWNS THE FISH?

Either that or 1 to 3 are a subset of the required data needed to answer the question, and on their own are meaningless.

Credit crisis near an end? No, I dont think so. Now evolving into a global currency crisis. I wonder what will happen when the IMF runs out of reserves and has to start printing - as it is entitled to.
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby SweetSmellofMoney » Tue 28 Oct 2008, 19:49:53

Falconoffury wrote:
Having said that, breaking free of this planet and its finite larder and opening new frontiers of land and resources may trigger another bout of capital.
I'm not sure we are anywhere near achieving that goal though, yet socialism may trigger this outcome and consequently, may well be equally transitory.

I'm sure that we are definitely nowhere near that goal.

The credit crisis may be over soon, but it will pave the way for a much bigger crisis. The next crisis will be based upon the scarcity for basic resources such as food, water, and energy.

Capitalism does not require endless growth, and it can exist in a no-growth economy. The banking system we use now requires growth, and that will have to be replaced. Communism is not inevitable.


My sources say that the population would have to exceed 9 Billion without conservation and better than 11 Billion with conservation before the earths resources would be stressed to its limits!

GL
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