[Newfie]

I think I’ve started to develop an investment strategy that will work despite of because of the uncertainty surrounding the virus.

I’m looking at a basket of REITs. Warehouses, data centers, cell infrastructure, timberland, farm land.

[REAL Green]

I think I’ve started to develop an investment strategy that will work despite of because of the uncertainty surrounding the virus.

I’m looking at a basket of REITs. Warehouses, data centers, cell infrastructure, timberland, farm land.

Those sound like good ideas but remember we could potentially see bad inflation and deflation depending on the type of asset with timing issues. It is easy to get on the wrong side of that process with risk off fear. What will the fed and gov do IMA? I am all cash and gold now and plan on being that way until next spring. I have farm land, animals, and timber. My preps have paid off well considering what could have happened. They are still good even though a bad drop did not happen...yet. Worse dislocation might be ahead. Hysteresis means unintended consequences are ahead. I am OK with losing money being in cash unless there are bank runs and bail-in haircuts. I think my physical gold will increase or maintain value unless I can't get to it in the safe box I have. Banks do close down or might be raided.

[Plantagenet]

I've been feeling great about it because I was following the pandemic in China and got nervous and I sold everything I had in the market in early February.

Then I bought back in pretty close to the lows in March.

WOW! Bingo..I'm up 50% in just a couple of months. Pardon me for mentioning it but this doesn't happen very often to me so I'm trying to enjoy the heck out of it.

For once I timed the market just right.

But now I'm worried about the coming recession/depression caused by the shutdown.

I never dreamed they'd shut down the whole US economy for two months and I don't have any idea how to play the current economic crisis.

I don't have any idea of the timing or the depth of the economic collapse we are starting into.

It could be short ..... or we could be starting into another Great Depression.

If so, we very could be looking at another, even deeper market collapse.....lets hope not.


.... fingers crossed for good luck.....

[Newfie]

Yes, I hear the uncertainty. That’s part of the reason for the post, to get other opinions.

This frigging virus is driving me nutz. I can see no logical pattern to it.

I can see inflation, due to the enormous amounts of magical money being created.

I’m having a much more difficult time seeing DEflation.

[vtsnowedin]

A very tough time to invest in the markets. No one has any idea how much the Fed and other government agencies will put their thumb on the scale and all the usual Wall street vultures are looking to skin you down to the bone.
I expect to see a flood of urbanites coming north to New England looking for a free standing house on more then an acre to put their money into something they can actually use if another wave comes.

[mmasters]

I've been in a hold strategy with my account. Got in since the bottom and after about a 30% recovery I notice these 10-15% fluctuations between a few good days and a few bad days the past few weeks. I'm thinking of selling out now after a few good days then buying back in after a few bad days. Might as well make money off it slushing around.

[rockdoc123]

Yes, I hear the uncertainty. That’s part of the reason for the post, to get other opinions.

This frigging virus is driving me nutz. I can see no logical pattern to it.

I had a conversation with my financial advisor a couple of weeks past where we discussed what was going on. When I tried to reason what this would look like market-wise in a few months his comment was.....quit trying to be logical, there is nothing about this situation that is the least bit logical. Basically in this environment, you find companies that were well run before the shutdowns hammered their stock price as they will be the ones that survive and thrive post Covid. Look for decent yield that isn't at risk of being yanked back, the dividends pay you while you wait out the market to return. He (and I) believe there will be another drop to test the previous lows. When that happens I have a list of stocks that I will pick away at on the way down and back up. There are a couple that I am also hoping to average down on and then sell when the market returns. I think there are some stocks that are no-brainers when the market retreats again...Apple, Amazon, Google are still strong companies although not dividend payers. There are a few healthcare ETF's that look good now that Bernie is out of the running. Of the oil and gas companies, the only two I would even consider are Chevron and Exxon, and given Shell just cut their dividend I would wait to see if these two follow suit (would result in a drop in share price and a better buying opportunity). The pipeline utilities that have holdings in countries outside of North America are always a good investment (eg: TransCanada). The bigger well-financed banks that are not too badly exposed to credit card debt are also attractive for the long term, few have ever lowered their dividends when stressed. Some of the defense stocks are always a sound buy, Lockheed Martin and Raytheon come to mind as well-run outfits. Certain telcoms will come out on top as well ( I've been buying BCE and Telus as of late). My tactic has been to pick a price I'm willing to buy at even though it is lower than currently trading and put in a bid with a few days limit. If it fills I'm happy and if it doesn't I'm still happy that I didn't overpay. Not an expert but this strategy and tactics has worked for me previously.

[mmasters]

Don't forget anheuser busch inbev (BUD). This virus is going to drive a lot of people to drink!

[REAL Green]

I’m having a much more difficult time seeing DEflation.

Deflation is likely with assets as foreclosures and repos flood the market with assets but no buyers. That is if the economy implodes with these problems. It appears to be doing this as we speak for example with the highly visible housing, autos, planes and boats. Are all those people out of work going to get back to work and make their payments? I suspect even if we have a U shape recovery to almost what we had pre Covid a significant amount of people that were in the wrong industries or in the wrong part of the country are going to find man of their assets in deflation and underwater. On the flip side there will be juicing by the fed and gov that will prime those areas that will not be depressed. There will be the issue of the tail of this demand shock with lack of supply from businesses not producing. This means money juicing chasing low supply in various areas meaning inflation. Food is a great example where a surge in inflation may occur. This combination inflation/deflation is often called stagflation but that was in a normal economy. This new-normal-new-normal is worlds apart and much more sinister with the moral hazard. I said new normal twice becuase the first new normal was post 08 and now we are post Covid. This latest new normal is with dysfunctional financial policy tools last new normal still being deployed but now their utility is clearly in declining. Even before Covid we saw each unit of debt producing less return or less productivity in a condition of diminishing returns. The other destabilizing issue is zero bound rates that destroy price discovery. Rates may never return to normal except in a new system.

[Newfie]

Real,

OK, that makes as much sense as anything.

The price of toys collapse but necessities increase.

I’m not seeing the price of sailing yachts plummet yet, although I expect it will, for more reasons than you list.

Cars I expect to go into recession because the average car has a lot of life left in it. We can forego a new vehicle a couple of years before we really need to go get one.

I don’t know how housing will fare and it may be either regional or even by neighborhood. I can see pressures in both directions, but generally down. Unless there is some extraordinary assistance from the government. Interest rates are now around 3% or so. Houses are not being shown because of lockdown.

I am expecting some expansion in several areas.
Data centers
Wireless connectivity
Distribution centers, cold storage
Artificial Intelligence

[vtsnowedin]

I am expecting some expansion in several areas.
Data centers
Wireless connectivity
Distribution centers, cold storage
Artificial Intelligence

Yes all of those especially AI combined with robotics.
Another I see increasing is roof top PV panels with storage systems. What few new houses I have seen being built as I do my town appraisal job all have such systems being installed and I expect many well heeled New Yorker's coming to settle/ retire in Rural areas will want them as a standard item.

[REAL Green]

Another I see increasing is roof top PV panels with storage systems. What few new houses I have seen being built as I do my town appraisal job all have such systems being installed and I expect many well heeled New Yorker's coming to settle/ retire in Rural areas will want them as a standard item.

I have been speaking about this for years. A small PV system is enough to cover lights and refrigeration. I have a 12 pannels 3600 watt system with batteries. That does not take me off the grid and I don't want to be. I am a hybrid of on and off grid. Yesterday my system ran my Daikin ac/heat inverter. I gathered 10Kwh yesterday. That is all my system did. I don't use this system at night. Maybe I won't use it today becuase it might rain but it is there ready to go with full batteries if an emergency hits So, if you want a big expensive system and go off grid then do it. All the power to you. If solar is not your thing then go smaller. You can go 6 pannels 1800 watt and still cover all the small things in the house you would need in an emergency. If you have a deep pantry with freezers then a solar system to keep this going is essential. A generator will do it but instead use the generator as your solar system backup.

I use transfer switches for every circuit that may be used with solar. My breaker box is hooked into the transfer switches. Some people already have these if they have a good generator backup system. My transfer switches are actually made for generators but I adapted them for solar. In my opinion the grid is your cheapest and most reliable source of energy so be a part of it. Since it can go down dramatically have solar backup and have your solar back up set up so you can gather solar to help defray the cost. In this situation it is backup but still active and saving money.

This is more of my REAL Green low carbon capture idea. I also use wood and gather the sun's energy from pasture and animals too. This is nothing dramatic. I am using low complexity systems to gather energy. This system is more resilient. I realize a solar system is high tech but mine is the low tech of the high tech. I have the best insulation strategies I could get to enhance the low carbon capture. I feel solar is greener. Solar is an essential prep power asset along with a small generator and good fuel storage strategies.

[vtsnowedin]

What I am seeing is larger 5KW to 10KW systems that may or may not be grid tied. Generac company sells complete systems using wall batteries they call PWRcells equivalent to Tesal's power walls some have propane or diesel powered generators for double backup. The local power company is resisting taking in solar power into their grid but regulators are pushing it. With sufficient battery you can use most of summer sunlight even if you can't sell excess to the grid then tap the grid in winter when the roof is snow covered for days etc. I expect the base bill for those using the grid that way to go up to cover the cost of maintaining the distribution lines that are being used less.

[REAL Green]

What I am seeing is larger 5KW to 10KW systems that may or may not be grid tied. Generac company sells complete systems using wall batteries they call PWRcells equivalent to Tesal's power walls some have propane or diesel powered generators for double backup..

There are better systems then mine. I am not an expert with these systems but I have learned a lot since I got one. Before I got the system, I was not good at all with solar. I am getting better becuase of the learning curve of doing. My point is cost. My system cost me around $20K. Some of these systems are much more expensive because of advanced features. I am also looking to stay simple becuase my REAL Green seeks resilience and sustainability and often it is the case a simple system that is more manual and less automated is more robust in this regard.

I have been researching renewables and doing the “hands on” and I can tell you my REAL Green of low carbon capture is more expensive in our status quo world of cost/benefit. My labor and the cost of the equipment make my wood heat more expensive. My grid power is cheaper considering the equipment cost depreciated with a declining balance of electric generated by the solar as the offset. Keep in mind grid power could become very expensive at any time so that is a variable to consider. Now, in a REAL Green world resilience, sustainability and planetary footprint have a value so this is why I am not a cheap all grid household commuting to a high paying job in "status quo land". To be fair my days of doing that generated the investments that now support me so I am still drenched in fossil fuels. This is because permaculture and green living does not pay the bills in a high-tech world.

In my opinion if you can do something solar do it. Do it for your own safety and do it for the planet. Solar is greener than fossil fuels even though many can debate how much if at all. I feel it is considering my solar protects lots of investments in food. It also once installed is gathering low carbon and not polluting. The manufacture generated pollution so that must be understood but over a life span of the system if well run it is lower by almost all estimates. The problem with solar is when we do macro applications that want to replace fossil fuels in a high tech on demand world of anything goes in the name of profit and discretionary wants. If you keep the system from supporting too much unneeded behavior then it is supporting your best practices. So, attitude and lifestyle play a part of the true value of low-tech solar setups. This means abstracts that cannot be penciled out but are there.

[Newfie]

I just bumped this thread.

More relevant.

posting.php?mode=reply&f=6&t=74138

[mmasters]

Decided the next updraft in the market I'm going to cash out except for a modest stake in Gilead/remdesivir. The whole market is reminding me of the dot com bubble burst in the early stages so I'm out.

[evilgenius]

Some random thoughts.

Will house prices go down soon? I think that is likely. If you need something that you can buy used, I would put off that purchase for another few months. There will likely be a lot of what you need for sale on Craigslist - cheap. No need to waste money now.

Will people spend on resort vacations after the virus is over? Maybe. Enough people will have the money to spend on that. But I think that number will be few enough that picking one resort company over another might be hard. I wouldn't touch resort companies, unless they fall to a price level where they reflect a deal relative to the slow business they may do if they are not among the lucky.

People will probably drive to places close to them. Oil will probably rebound to something like $30 a barrel. Too high a price will have an effect, though. People won't have money to spend unexpected amounts on fuel when they do go out again. Attempts to drive prices higher because of demand going up will meet with elastic demand, not inelastic demand. But there is some room for a tango with the consumer, as they will have already decided they will go closer to home this time, and they will likely do that by auto.

The base reasons for going solar will likely prevail. Solar should see some growth. I wonder if some states that changed the rules on solar, so that utilities didn't have to buy excess power from individuals, will go back to the way it was? That could really help solar go. I have a few shares of SPWR, for full disclosure. I don't know if they are the best company. I like them for their share price's relative position to past gains they've made when things were better for solar.

I like electrical infrastructure companies. It may be that even among those finding one that will benefit when local municipalities are trying to avoid bankruptcy may be difficult. I wonder if any have packages they can offer that cut down on extraneous costs? Whoever can help those municipalities do what they need to in order to meet their people's needs the cheapest may be the one to buy. Same goes for water. Water will have a problem, though. Many companies that make money selling valves and what not do a lot of business selling basically the same thing to frackers. Water could be a zero sum game.

There must be financial companies that will capitalize upon the weak municipal situation. Somebody, maybe Goldman, will get in there. Two years from now, many localities will be complaining about what they got themselves into, I bet. But you just know that many local politicians will be willing to give away the golden goose for a boost right now.

Will there be an alternative coming to the nursing home model? Those places were huge money makes for those in the loop. I'm sure they will try and keep it going, but there will be more resistance than ever to their business model.

Since many right wingers will be worried about Biden winning in the fall, gun sales will go up. Buying gun makers low could net a person double their investment. But Biden could actually be a molester. If that comes out, and Trump is the obvious alternative to enough people, the high sales might not materialize.

[Newfie]

EU,

Yup, lots and lots of questions. I think NYC real estate will take a bit. You MUST ride the subway. Philly may get a bounce, it is walkable, don’t NEED to ride the subway.

The entire Caribbean basin Ins shut o tourism. The question is how soon can they bring back flights. It already seen an editorial speculating it will be Jan/Feb before things get moving. The islands have largely avoided the virus and many are not anxious to reopen. If they reopen and then get the virus it begs the question “Why did we shut down?”

My financial advisor is worried about inflation and suggesting “physical asset” investments. That makes sense to me. I found a REIT that specializes in cold storage warehouses. I think that’s a winner.

[vtsnowedin]

Some random thoughts.

The base reasons for going solar will likely prevail. Solar should see some growth. I wonder if some states that changed the rules on solar, so that utilities didn't have to buy excess power from individuals, will go back to the way it was? That could really help solar go. I have a few shares of SPWR, for full disclosure. I don't know if they are the best company. I like them for their share price's relative position to past gains they've made when things were better for solar.

.

At least some states have made utilities credit solar put into the grid at full retail price currently here 21 cents per KW. The power company buys hydro power from Quebec for about 4 cents per KW so a 17 cent loss per KW hour credited. As the power company can have as much as 60 percent of it's total cost coming from other then wholesale power this is something they could do for a few early adopters to incentivize the industry but can't continue once a significant percentage of customers are participating. What I expect will evolve will be rates that credit the solar producer with say 7 cents per KW for any time produced with maybe 14 cents if added to the system during peak hours. That would incentivize battery storage and feeding in when the company needs it. Also basic monthly charges will go up to cover line maintenance and other overhead with cost per KWH dropped so a traditional non solar customer sees no net increase. If you were planning on getting 21 cents and get dropped back to 7 you are not going to be happy but I see no other long term sustainable way to do it.

[mmasters]

Picked up some DTO today (double short oil). A week or so ago it was at 300, now it's at 100. With oil at about 25 I think it's going to go back down to 15 or 20. Easy money hopefully!