[GoghGoner]

I think the CORN ETF is very attractive. It has to be close to the bottom unless we have some serious deflation. Any hint of a drought and it should be looking at 20% gain. I am not invested at this time but once I unwind my NG positions, I'll be grabbing some.

[vtsnowedin]

I think the CORN ETF is very attractive. It has to be close to the bottom unless we have some serious deflation. Any hint of a drought and it should be looking at 20% gain. I am not invested at this time but once I unwind my NG positions, I'll be grabbing some.

You do know that the decline in driving has trashed the demand for corn ethanol and farmers are reassessing how many acres to plant this spring.?

[GoghGoner]

I think the CORN ETF is very attractive. It has to be close to the bottom unless we have some serious deflation. Any hint of a drought and it should be looking at 20% gain. I am not invested at this time but once I unwind my NG positions, I'll be grabbing some.

You do know that the decline in driving has trashed the demand for corn ethanol and farmers are reassessing how many acres to plant this spring.?

Sure, lack of ethanol demand is already priced in. My fundamental view is that if it costs more to produce than folks get paid then it is a fairly safe bet and reward trumps risk. I haven't retired as a full-time investor so there is that.

[vtsnowedin]

I think the CORN ETF is very attractive. It has to be close to the bottom unless we have some serious deflation. Any hint of a drought and it should be looking at 20% gain. I am not invested at this time but once I unwind my NG positions, I'll be grabbing some.

You do know that the decline in driving has trashed the demand for corn ethanol and farmers are reassessing how many acres to plant this spring.?

Sure, lack of ethanol demand is already priced in. My fundamental view is that if it costs more to produce than folks get paid then it is a fairly safe bet and reward trumps risk. I haven't retired as a full-time investor so there is that.

I suppose there is some way to short corn futures but I don't know what that is as I don't play in the commodity markets. But failing that I don't see much upside in the corn market this year but you have fun with that and may the trend be with you.

[GoghGoner]

There is investment for about any position now. A leveraged ETF is extremely dangerous but if you feel strongly about the direction it could be worth the risk.

[url=https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJCCN2IP?p=^DJCCN2IP]Corn Inverse[/url]

[Plantagenet]

I think the CORN ETF is very attractive. It has to be close to the bottom unless we have some serious deflation. Any hint of a drought and it should be looking at 20% gain.

No offense....but Isn't that like making a bet on what the weather will be?

Anyway....good luck!

[mmasters]

So far it looks like I caught the bottom.

The really good plays are doing a "V" shaped recovery whereas the rest of the market will probably do a "U" shaped recovery.

[vtsnowedin]

So far it looks like I caught the bottom.

The really good plays are doing a "V" shaped recovery whereas the rest of the market will probably do a "U" shaped recovery.

You may be riding a false upturn caused by all that stimulus money. After that plays out it might head back down quite a bit.

[GoghGoner]

I wouldn't expect any long-term behavioral changes. The Spanish flu ended and in came the roaring 20s with a bunch of partying. Folks working remotely will probably be brought back in the office that is more of an executive culture than the employees desire.

[evilgenius]

I think the market has bottomed. The only thing that could upset the balance of information would be if social distancing turns out to take much longer than originally thought.

I am worried that the administration will atrociously bungle the stimulus. It's harder, I think, to bring the economy back from a state change rather than call it back from mothballs. People are still waiting on their checks, and rent was due over a week ago. No matter what that Gary Shandling look-a-like says, my check is not in the mail. When the money spigot gets turned on in order to bring back the market, leaving out the small fries, the delay probably will not be as long.

The big question is, what sort of new risk/reward world will we be looking at? Will we still be thinking about tomorrow, or will we spend all of our time fixing things? Who will get access to the best financing?

Will the world reach the point where if Trump says 'jump' they won't anymore? Specifically, globalism has been the engine that has spurred on so much progress over the last several decades. Trump has been hard at work decrying it. Will the world simply ignore the doubter and get back to business, or are we headed into a darker time? People will cite that the virus came from China. They won't remember so well that Trump cut the pandemic task force, and has repeatedly said that he inherited the system that doing that gave us. There could have been CDC people on hand in China, but Trump doesn't just hate China. He has it out for the CDC. They aren't a revenue generating department, I guess. Narcissists don't always act rationally.

I do think that if Trump feels slighted he won't hesitate to fire the Fed chief. He has always wanted to go negative. He will keep pushing for that. If the direction of the economy doesn't please him, he may become a very 'activist' president. The only things standing against that might be those who realize there is more potential profit under the global model, those who stand upon globalism for reasons other than economics and a lot of refuseniks who have always been wrong.

[vtsnowedin]

Made out my 2019 taxes today. Owe them money. Well I know where some of the big rescue check will go to. Nice that I don't have to pay them until July fifth.
I will have to put off the big investment score I was planning on.

[rockdoc123]

I think the market has bottomed. The only thing that could upset the balance of information would be if social distancing turns out to take much longer than originally thought.

I believe the market has now made its peace with Covid and what the timeline will be like, but what hasn't really hit home yet is how impactful the sudden stop to the economy is going to be. Earnings start to come in soon and projections regarding airline and driving miles, consumer consumption etc. will start appearing. My guess is we will see another drop before an honest recovery. The shape of that recovery will ultimately have to do with how long it looks like it will take the economy to get back humming. There are a number of pundits who are calling for wholesale change in behaviors (less driving, less restaurant and movie going, less in person shopping etc) and whether or not that seems to be happening will also have an influence on the recovery. At the very least there is going to be a lot of re-balancing of investment firms portfolios.

[vtsnowedin]

The Fed is dumping trillions of money into the markets to prop them up. That can not go on day after day for very long. After that ends the market will adjust to the new reality and having more information about the new market realities I expect another significant down turn that might take the market down past 16,000. This is far from over.

[mmasters]

The Fed is dumping trillions of money into the markets to prop them up. That can not go on day after day for very long. After that ends the market will adjust to the new reality and having more information about the new market realities I expect another significant down turn that might take the market down past 16,000. This is far from over.

Not much need for the fed to prop up the stock market at the moment. They may have averted a crash a month ago but bonds, CDs and promissory notes aren't making much of anything now with the interest rate so low. People with big money are turning to the stock market for a better rate of return. Might as well jump in while the waters warm. Just pick high quality under priced stuff that will easily pull through.

[vtsnowedin]

Not much need for the fed to prop up the stock market at the moment. .

Not much need You say?
Then why this today?
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/09/economy/ ... index.html
New York (CNN Business)The Federal Reserve is continuing its extraordinary efforts to prop up the US economy in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.
The central bank announced a new $2.3 trillion round of loans that include even more support for small businesses and consumers — and, for the first time, for states, cities and municipalities, too.
Fed dusts off 2008 playbook to avoid another financial crisis
Fed dusts off 2008 playbook to avoid another financial crisis
The Fed said Thursday that it is creating a Municipal Liquidity Facility with up to $500 billion in loans and $35 billion in credit protection in order to "help state and local governments manage cash flow stresses caused by the coronavirus pandemic."
Through this lending program, the Fed said it will buy short-term debt from states and Washington D.C., counties with at least 2 million people and cities with a population of 1 million and above.

"The Fed's role is to provide as much relief and stability as we can during this period of constrained economic activity, and our actions today will help ensure that the eventual recovery is as vigorous as possible," said Fed chair Jerome Powell in a statement.
The Fed also said Thursday that it will supply financing to banks taking part in the Small Business Administration's Paycheck Protection Program.
Trump and Biden should agree on this: Fed Chair Powell deserves a second term
Trump and Biden should agree on this: Fed Chair Powell deserves a second term
Additionally, the central bank said it was boosting its Main Street Lending Program for small businesses with an additional $600 billion in loans as well as $75 billion in funding from the Treasury Department via the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES) fiscal stimulus.
And the Fed is also expanding three other loan facilities it had already set up for consumers and businesses with $850 billion more in credit backed by $85 billion in credit protection from the Treasury Department.
The Fed is hoping that these moves, coupled with numerous other lending programs and the cutting of interest rates to zero, will be able to support the US economy at a time when job losses are mounting and many businesses are being forced to close their doors.

[mmasters]

Not much need for the fed to prop up the stock market at the moment. .

Not much need You say?
Then why this today?
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/09/economy/ ... index.html
New York (CNN Business)The Federal Reserve is continuing its extraordinary efforts to prop up the US economy in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.
The central bank announced a new $2.3 trillion round of loans that include even more support for small businesses and consumers — and, for the first time, for states, cities and municipalities, too.
Fed dusts off 2008 playbook to avoid another financial crisis
Fed dusts off 2008 playbook to avoid another financial crisis
The Fed said Thursday that it is creating a Municipal Liquidity Facility with up to $500 billion in loans and $35 billion in credit protection in order to "help state and local governments manage cash flow stresses caused by the coronavirus pandemic."
Through this lending program, the Fed said it will buy short-term debt from states and Washington D.C., counties with at least 2 million people and cities with a population of 1 million and above.

"The Fed's role is to provide as much relief and stability as we can during this period of constrained economic activity, and our actions today will help ensure that the eventual recovery is as vigorous as possible," said Fed chair Jerome Powell in a statement.
The Fed also said Thursday that it will supply financing to banks taking part in the Small Business Administration's Paycheck Protection Program.
Trump and Biden should agree on this: Fed Chair Powell deserves a second term
Trump and Biden should agree on this: Fed Chair Powell deserves a second term
Additionally, the central bank said it was boosting its Main Street Lending Program for small businesses with an additional $600 billion in loans as well as $75 billion in funding from the Treasury Department via the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES) fiscal stimulus.
And the Fed is also expanding three other loan facilities it had already set up for consumers and businesses with $850 billion more in credit backed by $85 billion in credit protection from the Treasury Department.
The Fed is hoping that these moves, coupled with numerous other lending programs and the cutting of interest rates to zero, will be able to support the US economy at a time when job losses are mounting and many businesses are being forced to close their doors.

I guess you could say they are propping it up indirectly. I thought you meant the fed was buying stocks.

[vtsnowedin]

That is how they go about it. They dump the money in with zero or close to zero rates and borrowers take that money and but stocks with it at least until they need it for their own projects. A lot more buyers equals stock prices going up by more then they are really worth. Notice that Vermont with less then a million people is frozen out of the municipal and government program. A Trump swat against Bernie?

[EnergyUnlimited]

Coronavirus Investing:

1. Food:
- non perishable - flour, noodles, canned food etc.
2. Medical supplies:
- masks (best are military type chemical masks as other are more like placebo)
- gloves
- disinfectants
- drugs like chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine or ramdesivir - if you have access to sources.
- morphine - it will help you to die peacefully while you are suffocating in progress of pneumonia.
3. Land:
- Nice plot on your local cemetery, unless you want to be buried in a trench hastily dug in NJ park or end up on landfill site.
4. Furniture:
- Real oak coffin
5. Services:
- Burial caravan service to be booked in advance

[vtsnowedin]

Coronavirus investing:

Solar panels for roof. 5 to 10 KW.
Power wall to store solar.
Cyber truck to use and store solar.
Land to grow food and provide defensive perimeter around dwelling.
Guns and ammo to defend against looters and government forces.
powder ,bullets, primers for reloading ammo.
Food --all types. six month to a year supply depending on season.
fishing gear fresh water and ice.
garden tools and seeds non hybrid to allow saving your own seed.
whiskey and Gin, wine, beer, as desired.
wacky weed to chill with or trade.
furniture: shooting bench to improve skills with practice.
compost pile . Place they can stuff your body once you cash in.

[mmasters]

I think there's a good possibility Trump is going to bail out the oil industry. Planning to pick up a good oil stock soon (I like XOM via rockdoc's recommendation). Could be an easy 30-40% money play.