[rockdoc123]

Not a problem. Better to wait until mid summer when the true bottom has been reached after the government has exhausted all means of propping up the market.
Plenty of time in the meantime to research just which stocks to buy when the time comes and to watch how those stocks are faring in the new reality post CV.

OK. If you are waiting to make sure the deep bottom has been reached and it is coming off of it, well basically if you have doom in your mind there is no way of telling that. I talk almost daily to guys who are in the market for a living and none of them would ever try to predict where the bottom is. But what they are unanimously saying right now is for the time being it looks like the panic selling is moving out of the market (i.e. those who probably shouldn't have been invested in the first place as the risk was too high, people who leveraged their bets and got caught on margin calls, hedge funds who thought they were smarter than everyone else) which you can see as the VIX has been dropping over the past week from its high (meaning less volatility). There could be new lows due to some news but if there is a day with more good news coming from Covid than bad news (eg. we have a cure just need to go through all the trial testing hoops, we have a means of testing for immunity, we have determined it is a seasonal virus etc, or death rate is dropping off quickly) and the Saudis and Russians can quit playing silly buggers then the market should respond aggressively. If you are watching it rise and saying to yourself....well this is just another bear rally then you will lose all the opportunity as these things usually gain back 20 - 30% in a couple of months and this one could be faster. Remember the big investment firms aren't thinking about where we are right now but rather where we will be in 6 months or a years time. If they see a good reason that the market will come back they will buy in regardless of the damage that has been done to the economy for the next two quarters simply because they are looking out further than that. I say all this because you can't look at this as what is going to happen tomorrow but rather where the market and various stocks are going to be in a years time. It makes it difficult for the average investor without patience, it isn't for the weak.

[Plantagenet]

Better to wait until mid summer when the true bottom has been reached after the government has exhausted all means of propping up the market.
Plenty of time in the meantime to research just which stocks to buy when the time comes and to watch how those stocks are faring in the new reality post CV.

OK. If you are waiting to make sure the deep bottom has been reached and it is coming off of it, well basically ..... there is no way of telling that.

Exactly right.

And just to make calling the bottom exactly right even more difficult, when Mr. Market comes off the bottom, he may move up very very quickly. The market can easily move up 10% or more in week.

Good Luck!

Cheers!

[vtsnowedin]

My point was and remains that people that think the bottom is now or within a few days are looking through rose colored glasses. The bottom will come after all the closures and travel restrictions have ended and bean counters can add up the damage and see what companies will recover and prosper.
Buy in now if you wish, but expect to see some losses for the next three months at least but if you hang on you might get back up to current levels by years end if you chose wisely.

[rockdoc123]

The bottom will come after all the closures and travel restrictions have ended and bean counters can add up the damage and see what companies will recover and prosper.

when the information is in for everyone's perusal we will already be off bottom, the reason is the market is much better at anticipating both good and bad news than the individual due to the difference in information sources. You have to accept that if you wait for all the good news to be in place and all the analyses to be published you will miss out on what could be half of the recovery. If you are OK with that then you don't have to accept as much risk, if you want better returns you will have to anticipate things somewhat and accept a bit of risk.

[vtsnowedin]

Who said anything about waiting for things to get published? When it turns it will turn on insider information only the people at the level of congressmen have access to. But we will see it start to rise and can get in on the right side of the V if not exactly at the bottom.

[rockdoc123]

But we will see it start to rise and can get in on the right side of the V if not exactly at the bottom.

well good luck with that. I've been investing through numerous corrections and bull markets over the years and through that time I've never ever met anyone who was a professional who claimed to have invested at the bottom on purpose. If they did happen to buy shares at the bottom it was because they were buying all the way down.
The S&P bounced 17% upwards in two days a little over a week ago...that is instructive of how fast this can move.

[Cog]

I'm long on telecommunication companies. If anything people stuck at home have little else to do but watch videos and text each other. I'm also figuring that tele work will increase as a result even after things return to normal.

[Outcast_Searcher]

My point was and remains that people that think the bottom is now or within a few days are looking through rose colored glasses. The bottom will come after all the closures and travel restrictions have ended and bean counters can add up the damage and see what companies will recover and prosper.
Buy in now if you wish, but expect to see some losses for the next three months at least but if you hang on you might get back up to current levels by years end if you chose wisely.

Maybe, and maybe not.

Lots of "market experts commentators" (and I'm CERTAINLY not one) claim that the bottom will be in WELL BEFORE it's clear we're at the peak of the bad news. I have no IDEA when to buy for this. But at least I admit it, instead of presuming to give timing advice.

The point is, apriori, no one knows, though many, many will claim they do. I guess after 40 years of watching this sort of opinions by both experts and laymen, I find it amusing.

Look, if one could consistently out time the market, one could be WILDLY rich. And yet, how often does it happen? I can think of Buffett, from the 50's through the 90's (and he only outperformed by a few percent a year on average) and he was just SCARY smart and ahead of his time.

And even HE has reverted to the mean since then. (A lot of what he had in his head in the 60's, re biographies, computers have (and more accurately and quickly) now. So his data edge is gone.)

[vtsnowedin]

This is just a chat board not a financial advise company. My opinion is just my opinion and no one should invest any money based on it and that should include me.
I may take any stimulus checks that actually show up and buy a share or two when the time comes.
Question?? Will those $1200 checks be taxable income?

[EdwinSm]

Not sure where to invest, but local holiday homes might be good. Apparently our local shop is doing well as many people have moved out to the cities to sit this out in their "summer cottages". Also people might be more reluctant to take overseas holidays, at least for a while.

AI and automation could well get a boast as a way of keeping businesses open. But with the loss of jobs there might be need for some form of "Universal Wage" to stop social unrest.

Where not to invest might be easier:- Cruise lines and Care Homes. If the coronavirus becomes endemic, like the common cold, then old folks (like a lot of us here) will be hit year after year with its higher death rate for us golden oldies. I suppose any other business to cater for older people could be included here, except maybe for robots to work in care situations.

[Cog]

This is just a chat board not a financial advise company. My opinion is just my opinion and no one should invest any money based on it and that should include me.
I may take any stimulus checks that actually show up and buy a share or two when the time comes.
Question?? Will those $1200 checks be taxable income?

The $1200 checks will not be taxable income. Neither will the federal bonus checks of $600/weekly added to unemployment checks if you are unemployed due to the coronavirus layoffs.

[Newfie]

I'm long on telecommunication companies. If anything people stuck at home have little else to do but watch videos and text each other. I'm also figuring that tele work will increase as a result even after things return to normal.

Yes, I like this.

[vtsnowedin]

I'm long on telecommunication companies. If anything people stuck at home have little else to do but watch videos and text each other. I'm also figuring that tele work will increase as a result even after things return to normal.

Yes, I like this.

In the short term the cell phone companies will probably take quite a hit. If you can't pay the rent you obviously can't pay a smartphone bill. Stuck at home people will let the phone go before they cut the cable or the net flicks.
Free of their old contracts people might get serious about looking for cheaper plans then those currently offered after the lockdowns end.

[evilgenius]

Chances are the market will start recovering well before the economy does. By the time the general public looks around and wonders how it happened, it will have solidified its gains.

[vtsnowedin]

Chances are the market will start recovering well before the economy does. By the time the general public looks around and wonders how it happened, it will have solidified its gains.

But are we the general public?

[Outcast_Searcher]

Chances are the market will start recovering well before the economy does. By the time the general public looks around and wonders how it happened, it will have solidified its gains.

But are we the general public?

Why wouldn't we be re investing. Our perspective / expertise might be skewed toward energy, but other groups are experts on things like tech. or other industries.

Overconfidence, a common human failing, can really hurt portfolio performance over time.

Example: Studies have shown how on average, people who buy and hold popular mutual funds for decades DRAMATICALLY outperform those who trade them actively (once a year or more) -- by as much as FIVE percent a year.

[Outcast_Searcher]

OK, so who thought that the market would zoom up like crazy today, as of Friday?

On the HOPE that we are peaking, apparently largely based on lower numbers Sunday, as though Sunday likely doesn't involve fewer tests.

To me, this is just an example of how irrational the market is in the short run, and how hard it is to trade it in the short term, and why to claim this or that point is a likely bottom, a good or bad time to buy, etc. can be a fun hobby (and some "financial advice bloggers" even make a freaking LIVING from it) -- as far as reliable, or even usable financial information apriori, re profits, NOT SO MUCH.

And by the way, I certainly would NOT have predicted this. In fact, my overall view from mid March (about 10% lower vs. now) was for lots of volatility, but overall, a slow grind lower -- significantly lower.
And that might still happen, given all the bad financial news and likely intermediate virus news on delays, waves, uncertainty, hot spots, death, and on and on to come. But timing it and confidently profiting from it in anything but the long term? Good luck with that.

Just cautioning people against making large, overconfident, short term bets, if you can't well afford to be wrong, for a month or 5+ years, or even longer.

[Cog]

OK, so who thought that the market would zoom up like crazy today, as of Friday?

On the HOPE that we are peaking, apparently largely based on lower numbers Sunday, as though Sunday likely doesn't involve fewer tests.

To me, this is just an example of how irrational the market is in the short run, and how hard it is to trade it in the short term, and why to claim this or that point is a likely bottom, a good or bad time to buy, etc. can be a fun hobby (and some "financial advice bloggers" even make a freaking LIVING from it) -- as far as reliable, or even usable financial information apriori, re profits, NOT SO MUCH.

And by the way, I certainly would NOT have predicted this. In fact, my overall view from mid March (about 10% lower vs. now) was for lots of volatility, but overall, a slow grind lower -- significantly lower.
So I'm certainly NOT claiming I can do good short term trading.

Just cautioning people against making large, overconfident, short term bets, if you can't well afford to be wrong, for a month, or 5 years, or even longer.

Saturday and Sunday is always suspect but the contagion model that the USA is using has been changed over the weekend. We are now showing 80k+ projected deaths instead of the 150-250k deaths. The new patient intakes in certain states like Illinois and New York are dropping. That is hopeful.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Saturday and Sunday is always suspect but the contagion model that the USA is using has been changed over the weekend. We are now showing 80k+ projected deaths instead of the 150-250k deaths. The new patient intakes in certain states like Illinois and New York are dropping. That is hopeful.

Thanks. Hadn't seen that yet re the new model. (So much news and data to look at that changes so fast with this thing, that I often get a day or three behind in certain areas).

I still presume that model is assuming no major ongoing series of waves, that reliable vaccines conferring solid immunity for at least a year are widely available within 18 months, etc. Models are great, but they all have assumptions. And given how quickly and dramatically they change, I sure wouldn't want to be betting my entire life savings on the latest swing in direction, but that's just my cautious nature.

[Newfie]

I just had a funny financial opportunity come up. I’ve very mixed feelings about it.

I have this 168 acre property in Cape Brenton on a peninsula. It’s on the “wrong” side of the road. It has lots of water frontage but it’s all very steep to, 500’ near cliffs. Across the road the gently slopes to the water on the other side. Directly across from my property a sale came up, I just saw it today, no idea how long on the market. 1200 sq ft house, single story, 1997 construction, 350’ water frontage. It would’ve so sweet to own that. The location is outstanding. You can look at the boating center a mile away across the water. $265,000 Canadian. I can’t be in both places at the same time damn it!

I would have to deplete my retirement savings to buy that. And there are downsides, winter being #1. It’s remote, an hour to any kind of major store. Even the boating center. 20 minutes by skiff or an hour by car. And we have this nice cabin in Newfoundland. Both places are beautiful in the same season. Newfoundland has my family connections and is owned.

I threw out a low number which was promptly rejected. I put a lot of explanation and words around it. They were not even polite.

As to it being an investment my thinking was, perhaps wrong, that my land is not worth much and it would cost a fair bit to build even a modest cabin. If I bought a his cabin, combined with the average, the sum total would be worth more than the individual parts. That’s probably wishful thinking. But it was the rational I was using.

Also, with the markets the way they are it may make sense to buy some real estate. But I doubt I could mortgage it. I would have to research that, I asked the real store but she didn’t answer. I doubt very much I could rent it out, perhaps as a vacation cottage.