[Karle]

A friend will sell his bike workshop and start a funeral business. Reason is half of the population can't wait to get vaccinated, which makes 40 million for Germany, and Bill Gates expects a large number of deaths from vaccination.

Besides that we have between 15 and 25% of all companies here in Germany which are bankrupt but still alive since because of corona they have been saved from being shut down. That grace period will end in January. Then it will all be totally diffferent.

Food, medicine, shelter, heating, guns and ammo will be in high demand. I am therefore investing in heating. Better said I am developing ways to heat with biomass waste which so far is working perfectly. Once the crisis hits people will knock on my doors asking how that works.

Also seeds and knowledge how to grow your own food. In March we had not only a shortage of toilet paper but also a shortage of seeds.

[JuanP]

There was a shortage of edible plants seeds in the USA for months, too. Some sellers stopped selling in retail amounts and only supplied wholesale amounts to previous commercial customers with pre existing accounts. Investing in companies that produce and distribute seeds is probably a good idea in the USA.

[REAL Green]

There was a shortage of edible plants seeds in the USA for months, too. Some sellers stopped selling in retail amounts and only supplied wholesale amounts to previous commercial customers with pre existing accounts. Investing in companies that produce and distribute seeds is probably a good idea in the USA.

Not around here in the Midwest.

[vtsnowedin]

You are both assuming that the Covid vaccines do not end the problem and the economy continues to decline. I am much more optimistic about this coming year and I doubt there will be any real shortages of any necessary commodity.
There are of course the bills governments have racked up fighting the pandemic and they will have to be paid with real money but renewed productivity should be able to stand that strain.

[JuanP]

You are both assuming that the Covid vaccines do not end the problem and the economy continues to decline. I am much more optimistic about this coming year and I doubt there will be any real shortages of any necessary commodity.
There are of course the bills governments have racked up fighting the pandemic and they will have to be paid with real money but renewed productivity should be able to stand that strain.

Those are good points, VT. And, I wouldn't expect you to get the huge returns you could make by making more speculative investments. I do expect retail seeds sales to grow food to continue growing for the rest of our lives, though, in both good times and bad times, which makes them a very low risk investment, IMO. Also, IIRC, some suppliers are VT companies, and I like supporting local businesses. Small scale food growing has been a growing practice for over a decade, and I don't expect that to change.

[vtsnowedin]

My Covid _19 investment today was a fifty pound bag of locally grown potatoes for $10.00. That should last the two of us well into the winter when grocery store staff will have been vaccinated.

[vtsnowedin]

The last couple of days Maderna stock has been very volatile shooting up to $170 and plunging to $135 then climbing back up to $147.
One explanation given for the drop is that Merc which invested $50,000,000 in Maderna back in 2015 at $20/ share is selling out a chunk of it to collect their profits. If they sold the whole thing at $160 that would have netted them 350 million.
Question ? Dose the Merc corporation pay capital gains tax on that or does it go into the corporate balance sheet for corporate profits tax rate?

[vtsnowedin]

Looking at this next year and it's possibilities that are Corvid related there are way more different prospects then I have chunks of money to invest in.
One that comes to mind are the firms that make all those glass vials to hold the coivid vaccines in. (Thermo- Fisher etc.). Another is the airlines that will actually ship much of the vaccine and will recover once the pandemic is over. Yet another is the major healthcare companies that will surly get their cut in distributing the vaccines. And there is the companies making all those -100 freezers for the vaccines that need it. I can place a bet or two but I can't cover them all.
Something for me to think about in the next few months.

[vtsnowedin]

Late breaking news. Pfizer announced they had problems with the quality of raw materials received and cut their projected 2021 deliveries of their Covid-19 vaccine by half. Their stock predictably took a dive but only 1.75% while competing Maderna stock jumped up 10.23%.
I hope they can resolve those supply line issues quickly.

[Outcast_Searcher]

and Bill Gates expects a large number of deaths from vaccination.

No, he doesn't.

Bill Gates believes in science. And you're on the internet, so you can easily fact check this -- there are a LOT of places showing why this is a false claim.

What BIll Gates indicated was that lots of people will have some side effects.

News flash: a headache, a sore arm, a mild to moderate fever, some digestive distress, etc. will NOT kill anyone who isn't already at death's door.

[Outcast_Searcher]

You are both assuming that the Covid vaccines do not end the problem and the economy continues to decline. I am much more optimistic about this coming year and I doubt there will be any real shortages of any necessary commodity.
There are of course the bills governments have racked up fighting the pandemic and they will have to be paid with real money but renewed productivity should be able to stand that strain.

I just saw a story today about a proposal that Americans be paid a stimulus check to encourage them (carrot instead of stick) to get a vaccine. Once you get to about 75% immunized, that should pretty much be solid herd immunity. It would cost $380 billion as proposed, and it might not be the best way to spend that money, but if that's what it takes to get science=denial Americans vaccinated in sufficient numbers to make the vaccines effective in beating this thing down, it's probably worth it.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/03/1500-st ... -work.html

One of the best pieces of news re both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines is that they apparently prevent serious cases. That in itself should be a big incentive to get one.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... -candidate

Since spring we've heard the usual naysayers claiming things like no vaccine is possible for a coronavirus since we haven't cured the common cold (of which there are a huge number of strains which tend to mutate very rapidly). And yet here we are with the science showing tremendous results re the ability to clean this thing up and get the world pretty much back to normal within a year.

And this happened AMAZINGLY fast compared to what was expected. Humanity has tons of problems. Science, done well, isn't one of them.

[vtsnowedin]

While a young anti-vaxer healthcare worker will have tough choices to make as well as their employer I think that those actually at risk of dying will roll up their sleeves pretty fast. Consider that in Vermont (figures handy) 83% of deaths are in the 70 plus age group and if you include those over 60 years old you cover 93%. Being in that +60 group I certainly will get vaccinated as as possible. Get the lions share of that older group vaccinated and the deaths at least will drop like a stone.
The fact that travel, vacations, and even employment will probably be restricted for those younger but refusing to get vaccinated should bring enough of those cohorts in line to get to that Herd immunity level needed.

[evilgenius]

Since investing is about figuring out tomorrow today, or trying, I think it's time to look at oil. Consider for a second the pent up demand to drive. It's something, driving as a means to express personal freedom, that has been practically hard coded into us over the last, modern era, grip of decades. Demand for driving fuel will return soon. Many oil stocks will at least rebound to what their average levels were before the pandemic knocked out demand. And they will do it as those investors who figure this out realize they need to position themselves for it, not when it actually happens.

I think the real question is which companies within the sector are the best to buy. Should a person reach out for a long term play, like RIG, or go for more immediate returns, with CVX or other?

[REAL Green]

investors who figure this out realize they need to position themselves for it, not when it actually happens.?

That was once the case with investing but in the New new normal it is all about if the PTB allow you to make money. The "Rig" is in just like the "Steal". Investors will play along within their little window of REAL investing. When haircut time comes then investors will find out just how naked their investments are to manipulation and control for the benefit of a few who care more about power than money. There is little free markets left. Moral hazard is everywhere. This is truly a time of decline!

[vtsnowedin]

Since investing is about figuring out tomorrow today, or trying, I think it's time to look at oil. Consider for a second the pent up demand to drive. It's something, driving as a means to express personal freedom, that has been practically hard coded into us over the last, modern era, grip of decades. Demand for driving fuel will return soon. Many oil stocks will at least rebound to what their average levels were before the pandemic knocked out demand. And they will do it as those investors who figure this out realize they need to position themselves for it, not when it actually happens.

I think the real question is which companies within the sector are the best to buy. Should a person reach out for a long term play, like RIG, or go for more immediate returns, with CVX or other?

Yes the demand for oil will recover both for driving and flying. The fly in that ointment is of course Biden's wish to phase out the fossil fuel industries. I think RIG which is on the financial roaps might not survive a new round of regulations and restrictions where the larger sector diversified corporations like chevron and Exxon will do nicely. Exxon is already up 12.3% over this last quarter.

[Outcast_Searcher]

investors who figure this out realize they need to position themselves for it, not when it actually happens.?

That was once the case with investing but in the New new normal it is all about if the PTB allow you to make money. The "Rig" is in just like the "Steal". Investors will play along within their little window of REAL investing. When haircut time comes then investors will find out just how naked their investments are to manipulation and control for the benefit of a few who care more about power than money. There is little free markets left. Moral hazard is everywhere. This is truly a time of decline!

Random raving about instadoom is no more helpful now than it has been since, say, 1960.

OTOH, the US and global economy are going to get a serious shot in the arm (literally) from Covid-19 vaccines in the coming months. WAKING UP and taking advantage of that through investing in depressed oil, given how very strongly oil consumption correlates with economic activity over time makes lots of sense, like it or not.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Since investing is about figuring out tomorrow today, or trying, I think it's time to look at oil. Consider for a second the pent up demand to drive. It's something, driving as a means to express personal freedom, that has been practically hard coded into us over the last, modern era, grip of decades. Demand for driving fuel will return soon. Many oil stocks will at least rebound to what their average levels were before the pandemic knocked out demand. And they will do it as those investors who figure this out realize they need to position themselves for it, not when it actually happens.

I think the real question is which companies within the sector are the best to buy. Should a person reach out for a long term play, like RIG, or go for more immediate returns, with CVX or other?

Yes the demand for oil will recover both for driving and flying. The fly in that ointment is of course Biden's wish to phase out the fossil fuel industries. I think RIG which is on the financial roaps might not survive a new round of regulations and restrictions where the larger sector diversified corporations like chevron and Exxon will do nicely. Exxon is already up 12.3% over this last quarter.

Certainly CVX, which I've been adding since it approached 50, in October (nice to be right on timing once in a while), is very sensitive to the price of oil in recent months.

Assuming that remains true, if one's outlook is for a general oil recovery in 2021 as the global economy recovers (which makes plenty of sense to me), then CVX would seem like a good bet, at least on meaningful dips. (We may well see such dips if the news gets uglier re deaths, hospital space shortages (so maybe extra deaths), etc. in the US. It's going to be NASTY until the weather AND a lot of vaccine doses make a meaningful difference, IMO.)

If oil gets to more normal crude prices / supply / demand, then one would expect CVX to get back into the vacinity of 120 or so, I'd expect.

Clearly crude itself has more potential bang for the buck, but more risk too. And at least CVX pays a decent dividend while you wait. I've been holding some CVX and selling quarterly options as it rides up and down, and making some decent profits there over the past several years. One has to not mind buying some more if the stock declines a lot, or letting it go at some point if it rises a lot, to play that game. The nice thing is, over a year, selling OTM options like that dwarfs the size of the dividend.

I don't have the experience with outfits like RIG to intelligently comment. Sorry.

[vtsnowedin]

CVX vs XOM is six of one a half dozen of the other. I took XOM at $35.80 and would not be surprised to see it go back to $70 and above. On a more forward looking investment I bought a bit of NEE (Nextera energy) as they have wind ,solar battery storage operations along with traditional oil gas and coal plants. In the same size class as both XOM and CVX but a better spread across the energy industry both today and tomorrow.

[Outcast_Searcher]

CVX vs XOM is six of one a half dozen of the other. I took XOM at $35.80 and would not be surprised to see it go back to $70 and above. On a more forward looking investment I bought a bit of NEE (Nextera energy) as they have wind ,solar battery storage operations along with traditional oil gas and coal plants. In the same size class as both XOM and CVX but a better spread across the energy industry both today and tomorrow.

No disagreement here. He mentioned CVX and I had specific experience trading SPX stock and options for years, so that's what I mentioned.

Comparing the CVX vs. XOM chart for several years, clearly they're highly correlated, which means the market generally agrees with your assessment.

[evilgenius]

A few weeks ago I bought HEP at about $12. It's gained about $3 since. I think they can get back to hovering around $24. The beautiful thing about HEP is that their dividend is built for that higher price. It is absurdly high right now because of the current low price range. If this period were not temporary by definition, I think I could expect a dividend cut. This isn't the only stock like this, I'm sure. It just stood out for me because I watch it. I wonder if anybody else, like with the CVX dividend example, has seen this same situation develop with stocks they watch?