[vtsnowedin]

I caught the timing just right.

I don't think I can time it like that again twice in one year, so I'm going to hold pat.

I think there will be more stimulus....!

Yes there will probably be more stimulus. But then the Harris/Bernie administration will get their wish list of increased taxes in place and no amount of stimulus will balance that and then you will see a major correction or "buying opportunity" if you prefer.
The question is how long you can milk the results of the coming stimulus before it turns south? Profits that can be made and profits that can be lost.
They were discussing today selling your winning stocks and paying the capitol gains tax at today,s low rate then buying them back to give you a new cost basis for when you have to sell some of them under the Biden much higher rate. Nothing to me but for some of the big dogs in the pound that might save them millions.

[Plantagenet]

[
They were discussing today selling your winning stocks and paying the capitol gains tax at today,s low rate then buying them back to give you a new cost basis for when you have to sell some of them under the Biden much higher rate. Nothing to me but for some of the big dogs in the pound that might save them millions.

I've heard that idea too.

If enough people sell over the next few months to avoid the higher 2021 tax rate that Biden and the Ds want to institute, that could crash the market by the end of the year.

Personally, I doubt that many people will sell......right now the low current capital gains tax rate is ca. 20% so if you sell now and pay the tax then you are down 20% right there and you need the market to drop by at least 20% for you to buy back in and be back at even.


If you're going to time the market then you have to make TWO good decisions.....when to sell and when to buy......and getting even one of them right is very very hard

Cheers!

[vtsnowedin]

I don't see it quite that way. If you bought a stock years ago it might have doubled or tippled in value while you have owned it. So say you had a million dollar gain between your buy date and today. Sell it today and owe (on just that one stock) $200,000. and immediately buy back $800,000 of the same stock that has zero gain on it as of today.
If you don't sell and then have to sell during the Biden administration(as proposed) you would pay $320,000 and have just $680,00 to reinvest or spend on wine women and song.
Now some long term investors will just let their bets ride through a Biden administration, but some will have to cash out in the next two years out and they will have been screwed if they waited until the Biden tax laws take effect.

[evilgenius]

I've been looking at propane. Restaurants have to go outside this winter. I hear it is really hard to find an outdoor heater. There will be a lot of propane burnt. My worry is that any stock that participates will be one that has other write offs that make it impossible to benefit from the increased use.

[mmasters]

I decided to sell out completely.

No stimulus, a second wave and Biden winning the election.

Triple bad news coming...

NO doubt more bad news is coming.....

I was following the Wuhan virus when it was still in China and I sold out completely in February and then bought back in at the lows in March. It was a once-in-a-lifetime event....I caught the timing just right.

I don't think I can time it like that again twice in one year, so I'm going to hold pat.

I think there will be more stimulus.....Pelosi isn't going to agree to anything that will TRump before the election, but as soon as Biden wins Pelosi will either flip flop and agree to more stimulus during the lame duck, or there will be a HUGE stimulus bill coming from the Ds in January when Biden takes over.

AND IMHO The second wave isn't as scary as the first because we've been doing this for 6 months now and we've got hopes of a vaccine before the end of the year.

---------------------

Good luck to you, MMast

Cheers!

I enjoy your posts and insight, Plantagenet.

I've made a few good plays. I paid for my college with profits from the dot com bubble. Got into gold when it was 500/oz right after I found this site and bought oil when it crashed to 30 a barrel 10 years ago. Tripled my money on both of those but I went nuts with all the doom stuff and nearly lost everything. Anyhow, I hit rock bottom about 6 or 7 years ago and have since made a big comeback.

Just before the panic selloff earlier this year I saw your posts about exponential growth of the virus and I thought yeah he's right I'd better get out except all my money was tied up in my dad's estate (he died of cancer earlier this year). I had to wait through all the estate administration while the market was crashing. Once I got access to the stocks/etfs they had lost 50% of their value! I luckily made some oil short plays, scraped some good stocks off the bottom and made everything back, thank goodness.

The end of year selloff to get taxed at a lower rate is a good catch, didn't think of that. So 4 big reasons to stay out before the end of the year.

Anyhow, I think we'll do well!

Oh, I've wondered many times why did you pick the name, Plantagenet? Isn't that European royalty?

[Plantagenet]

I've made a few good plays. I paid for my college with profits from the dot com bubble. Got into gold when it was 500/oz right after I found this site and bought oil when it crashed to 30 a barrel 10 years ago. Tripled my money on both of those but I went nuts with all the doom stuff and nearly lost everything. Anyhow, I hit rock bottom about 6 or 7 years ago and have since made a big comeback.

Same thing with me. The 2008-9 recession really hit stocks hard. Its a long road back when you hit a bad patch.

Just before the panic selloff earlier this year I saw your posts about exponential growth of the virus and I thought yeah he's right I'd better get out except all my money was tied up in my dad's estate (he died of cancer earlier this year). I had to wait through all the estate administration while the market was crashing. Once I got access to the stocks/etfs they had lost 50% of their value! I luckily made some oil short plays, scraped some good stocks off the bottom and made everything back, thank goodness.

I'm very sorry to hear of your Dad's passing. Sounds like you did a good job getting your money back after the nasty Pandemic sell-off in March.

I've wondered many times why did you pick the name, Plantagenet? Isn't that European royalty?

Exactly right again.


My distant relative Richard the Lion Hearted is the probably the most famous Plantagenet.

And why did you pick the name MMASTERS?


Are you related to the brilliant Prof. Masters of the famous research team Masters and Johnson?

Cheers!

[mmasters]

My distant relative Richard the Lion Hearted is the probably the most famous Plantagenet.

Great genetics for sure! If you would have told me that years ago I would have thought you were illuminati! lol

And why did you pick the name MMASTERS?

My last name is Masterson. Got used to using an abbreviated form of it years ago for computer logins.

Are you related to the brilliant Prof. Masters of the famous research team Masters and Johnson?

Cheers!

Not related to him but my great great uncle was Bat Masterson.

[mmasters]

I had to look it up on the web cause I remembered this from years ago...LOL

Top Illuminati Family Names

These are the top of the Illuminati organization. These are the people that really run this world. The most powerful is Marquis de Libeaux then followed by the Rothschild's {Bauer}, Bruce, Cavendish {Kennedy}, deMedici, Hanover, Hapsburg, Krupps, Plantagenet, Rockefeller, Romanov, Sinclair/ St. Clair, Warburg {delBanco}, and Windsor families. These are the families that run the NWO and all the stooges that work for them. They all worship Satan and they all take part in human sacrifice and ritual child abuse. If you do your own research you will see that these families have "bred themselves since ancient times and they are obsessed with keeping their bloodlines "pure". These are the sickest people on this planet and their hold is going to be broken as the world "wakes-up" to their murderous deception around the world. Remember the truth will set you free!

https://sites.google.com/site/soljoyweb ... lood-lines

There are those who believe a group of global elites known as the Illuminati are of reptilian bloodlines (shape-shifters), led by an entity code-named Pindar (phallus of the dragon), and that the current Pindar is the head of the Rothschild family.

There are those who believe the 13 Illuminati families consist of Rothschild (Bauer), Bruce, Cavendish (Kennedy), De Medici, Hanover, Hapsburg, Krupp, Plantagenet, Rockefeller, Romanov, Sinclair (St. Clair), Warburg, Windsor (British Royal family).

There are those who believe these Illuminati "money" families are obsessed with breeding among themselves in order to remain genetically pure within the reptilian bloodline and to systematically gain control of most of the major positions of economic, political, military and media power in the world.

https://www.areawidenews.com/blogs/1215/entry/38494

Tell us it ain't so Plant...

[Plantagenet]

.....these Illuminati "money" families are obsessed with breeding among themselves in order to remain genetically pure within the reptilian bloodline....

Tell us it ain't so Plant...

You certainly read some strange things, Mr. Masterson.

First, I must congratulate you........being the descendant of Bat Masterson is way cooler the being descended from Prof. Masters the sex scientist.

And as far as tying me to the Illuminati Plantagenets.......Well.....its partly true and partly greatly exaggerated and partly untrue.

For instance the part about restricting breeding to keep the reptilian bloodline pure is totally untrue. The truth is quite the opposite..... I’ve made considerable efforts to disperse my reptilian bloodline to a wide variety of attractive females from a range of backgrounds and different racial groups.

Cheers!

[vtsnowedin]

Well I will have to settle for being old New England WASP that fortune and fame has passed by.
The last couple of days I have taken a loss of some of my previous gains. Perhaps the post election dip is starting. Not to worry though as a big dip will just be a buying opportunity for me and long term I'll make out alright on most of them as they are mostly very well established companies that aren't going anywhere anytime soon.
Hard not to be bummed though when you check it and your in the red for the day.

[careinke]

My Bitcoin and other crypto is taking off. I'm trying to figure it out, but it has something to do with the IMF changing the way they plan to do debt. The IMF is trying to get the third world countries to print more money, but the countries are leery of kicking their own economies into another Venezuela.

The IMF is calling it "A new Bretton Woods Moment" Which is referring to something that took place right after WWII. I'm still trying to get my head around it, but it seems to have a lot of people excited and a lot of people think it will be good for crypto.

It kind of makes me feel good to know that if all the millionaires, just in the US, wanted to hold the same amount of Bitcoin as me, they would be physically unable to do it.

[evilgenius]

I think Central Banks are tempted to try out crypto. It comes with a cost. You have to buy in or you can't participate. Buying in means believing in a version of the future where that stuff works. You have to ignore all of the versions where it doesn't. Doing that opens you up to other's visions of the future. Not everybody is hands off, or very nice.

Meaning that crypto is so different that it does threaten to destroy some aspects of life that thrive under the current system. All you need is for society at large not to care very much about getting it right, and launch something that partially works. We don't need a monetary system that we think is new and great, but lacks opportunity of some kind that people are pretty comfortable with now. People need to care about this sort of thing because economics has personal ramifications that play out over long time scales. I'm not certain many are thinking about what that means.

[REAL Green]

I think Central Banks are tempted to try out crypto. It comes with a cost. You have to buy in or you can't participate. Buying in means believing in a version of the future where that stuff works. You have to ignore all of the versions where it doesn't. Doing that opens you up to other's visions of the future. Not everybody is hands off, or very nice.

What I see is the slippery slope of control that is a trap. More control leads to the need for more control. This is a vicious circle of decline. Keep in mind the current financialization scheme is a Ponzi. The reason it is a Ponzi is it has lost connection to fundamentals. It is now into extreme diminishing returns where effects go non-linear towards waste. There is still a long way to go and many other sectors can be robbed from to make up for this dysfunction. China is ahead of the game with the west close behind. Many think China is the shining new example of the future but what they are showing is how draconian control will need to be to maintain the status quo. The west is going China and China is going fail.

[vtsnowedin]

We used to see the government use inflation to eat away at the value of the accumulated National debt with that inflation often taking a much bigger slice off it's value than that of any tax dollars applied in any given year. Now they have switched to ridiculously low manipulated interests rates to make it easy for the government to just let any amount of debt just ride as it cost the government almost nothing to do so.
So now we have National debts that don't matter so there is no reason not to double or triple it.
But like any debt the bill will eventually come do and we tax payers will either pay for it through taxes or low interest rates on our savings or depressed economic activity. More likely it will be a combination of all three. When it does come due it will not matter if we pay it off in dollars or bitcoin or gold for that matter. the level of pain will be the same regardless of the exchange medium.
Of course at my age I will probably escape that bill due date and my children will get left holding the bag.

[REAL Green]

So now we have National debts that don't matter so there is no reason not to double or triple it. But like any debt the bill will eventually come do and we tax payers will either pay for it through taxes or low interest rates on our savings or depressed economic activity. More likely it will be a combination of all three. When it does come due it will not matter if we pay it off in dollars or bitcoin or gold for that matter. the level of pain will be the same regardless of the exchange medium.

The bill that comes due in reality is malinvested resources of society at large. Debt is an abstract just like fiat currency. Debt is realized physically as a reality of production and savings. As the effects of debt suffer diminishing returns approaching nonlinear benefit decline soon debt will just be a drawdown on productivity. Apply debt and see production go negative. Currently there is enough low hanging fruit to offset this systematic drag but one day it will be little more than a direct loss as a credit transfers to a nonperforming loan are.

[vtsnowedin]

The bill that comes due in reality is malinvested resources of society at large. Debt is an abstract just like fiat currency. Debt is realized physically as a reality of production and savings. As the effects of debt suffer diminishing returns approaching nonlinear benefit decline soon debt will just be a drawdown on productivity. Apply debt and see production go negative. Currently there is enough low hanging fruit to offset this systematic drag but one day it will be little more than a direct loss as a credit transfers to a nonperforming loan are.

Perhaps governments can see debt as abstract but I have always found it to be quite real and needing to be dealt with and paid off ASAP.
Not all debt is by itself a bad thing. Money borrowed to combine labor and materials to produce a product of higher vale then each left uncombined is worth produces profits and is the base of our economy.
Debt created out of thin air on a governments banking sheets for programs with no possibility of a return is quite the opposite. The problem today is the government debt is growing much faster then the economic debt which must generate the profits to be taxed to pay off that government debt.
Now we have proposals to tax not just the profits but also a slice of the underlying wealth. This will be akin to killing the goose that lays golden eggs.

[Outcast_Searcher]

I think Central Banks are tempted to try out crypto. It comes with a cost. You have to buy in or you can't participate. Buying in means believing in a version of the future where that stuff works. You have to ignore all of the versions where it doesn't. Doing that opens you up to other's visions of the future. Not everybody is hands off, or very nice.

There's the issue of tech failures, so it's not a risk-free idea at all. And to the extent investors mistrust the system or the risk, that causes massive harm to the economy. With all the hacking of Bitcoin, for example, I sure as hell am not comfortable with that idea. Even IF they didn't try back doors to maintain control, which greatly raise the risk of successful hacking.

And unless it is a global solution that everyone participates in and cooperates on (and what are the odds of THAT? -- I say very nearly zero), then there are currency markets, precious metals markets, etc, i.e. capital flight, which people will actively use to try to avoid the controls they don't trust. Especially the very rich and their access to so many resources.

Not saying it can't happen. I just think there are serious practical barriers, even IF TPTB agree it is a "good" thing.

And it's not like modern chipped credit cards, Forex markets, etc., commodity markets, stock markets, bond markets, etc. don't provide a very workable system as is, since they evolve with technology anyway.

[careinke]

There's the issue of tech failures, so it's not a risk-free idea at all. And to the extent investors mistrust the system or the risk, that causes massive harm to the economy. With all the hacking of Bitcoin, for example, I sure as hell am not comfortable with that idea. Even IF they didn't try back doors to maintain control, which greatly raise the risk of successful hacking.

With all the hacking of Bitcoin? Really I challenge you to provide ONE instance of someone hacking Bitcoin. Realize we are talking Bitcoin itself, not some exchange, that idiots let needlessly hold onto their private keys.

Your education seems a little short on this topic. I suggest you watch some of Andreas Antonopoulos youtube videos. He probably explains it best for newcomers. I'd be glad to discuss this with you once you have an understanding of crypto and more importantly blockchain.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wDwb36GNxw

[Plantagenet]

.... hacking of Bitcoin? Really I challenge you to provide ONE instance of someone hacking Bitcoin. Realize we are talking Bitcoin itself, not some exchange, that idiots let needlessly hold onto their private keys.

Yo Careinke. You are 100% right that the blockchain technology is a marvel and Bitcoin has never been hacked. However, hacking of the exchanges and private keys seems to be a real problem For instance:

bitcoin-150m-hack-of-major-exchange-kucoin

and:

hackers-transfer-28-million-worth-of-bitcoin-

and:

bitcoin-hack-over-40-million-of-cryptocurrency-stolen

and, a news story from just 5 days ago:

robin-hood-hackers-are-donating-stolen-bitcoin-to-charity

Personally, I don't understand Bitcoin as a investment at all. How do people buy it? Where is it stored? Why is it valuable? How do hackers steal it from exchanges?

If you'd be kind enough to give us a brief tutorial on Bitcoin I'd be very grateful.

THANKS!

[Newfie]

While I await Carinkes response I will demonstrate my ignorance by attempting a partial answer.

A bit coin is a bit like a prime number. It is a number that has certain traits that make it difficult to come up with a solution to the algorithm. Like prime numbers the early ones are easy to find, but they get harder and harder to solve for. So they are a rare commodity. Because they are rare their quantity is controlled. My understanding is that super computers or mesh computing is being used to solve for more bitcoin solutions. The energy being expended to “mine” bitcoins is somewhat more than what Belgium uses.

Essentially you own a bit coin solution, you get a certification of the solution, which is unique, can not be replicated.

So a bit coin is a lot like gold, it is a rare item, limited quantity, can not be replicated or transmuted.

It is a rejection of fiat currencies the same way gold bugs hoard physical gold. Or junk silver. I think of it this way, a bit coin is real in the intellectual world the way hold is real in the physical world. It is a repudiation of fiat which is based on TRUST. So gold bugs and bit coin adherents are saying they have more faith in good or the bit coin SYSTEM than they do in dollars. Then there are the folks who buy toilet paper and ammo.