[aldente]

Edited- Jato

Messages devoid of content: This includes posts with nonsense characters (ie. flksdhf). This also includes posts with a single word or only containing emoticons. This includes posts on "why was my post deleted", off-topic posts, threadjacking, complaining about links, unedited reposts, repeated mod evasion, and trolling.

[aldente]

Edited- Jato

Messages devoid of content: This includes posts with nonsense characters (ie. flksdhf). This also includes posts with a single word or only containing emoticons. This includes posts on "why was my post deleted", off-topic posts, threadjacking, complaining about links, unedited reposts, repeated mod evasion, and trolling.

[Tanada]

Bathroom humor? Did I stumble into a frat party without knowing it?

Come on guys I appreciate humor as much as anyone, but really, this is just a poor excuse for levity. PO needs levity or we might as well all shoot ourselves and be done with it, but can't we keep the level a bit higher?

[aldente]

What is the meaning of "bathroom humor"? Does it have anything to do with the American fear of body odor?
I swear, if ever any county would like to build an army designed to defeat the American one it has to be one based and built on elements "offending American females and their inability to deal with body odors"!
(and this comment does not refer to what my previous posts indicated, there might be indeed a double entendre going one here..)
Please note the color of the toilet in the first picture and the fact that it is lit!
Only then, should you be allowed ´´´´´´´´´´´do a deeper search in the water.

[ashurbanipal]

JD,

Got a link for that DOE report?

[jato]

Please remain on topic.

[Omnitir]

According to Laherrere, NG will not be peaking globally until around 2030.

Is this accurate? If so, why the hell does everyone act like NG is going to peak the same time as oil? It seems like just about every suggestion made for possible PO mitigation solutions are ‘debunked’ by people claiming that the NG situation is the same as the oil situation. Or do people just feel that a quarter a century of NG isn’t going to make a difference?

[bobcousins]

Or do people just feel that a quarter a century of NG isn’t going to make a difference?

No. For several reasons, not least is that NG is expensive to transport.

[Antimatter]

Liquification, transport and regasification losses for LNG are on the order of 10%, it is quite energy intensive. Japan has been importing considerable volumes of LNG for some time though. It will definatly help.

[aldente]

What did Jato delete? Certainly nothing earth moving.. As far as I recall a clear vision into a toilet bowl (a look into the near future) and the other one- which was.. .I forgot what it was..

{I deleted two posts with pictures that were off topic. To refresh your memory, one picture was of a girl sitting on a toilet. Please stay on topic and use better discretion when you attach images. If you want to discuss it further, PM me.} jato.

[JohnDenver]

JD,

Got a link for that DOE report?

http://www.eia.doe.gov/aer/
P. 299

[bobcousins]

Liquification, transport and regasification losses for LNG are on the order of 10%, it is quite energy intensive. Japan has been importing considerable volumes of LNG for some time though. It will definatly help.

Your example proves my point, Japan is a notable exception. Japan imports LNG because it has little domestic production and no pipelines, so it has no choice. Japan accounts for the majority of global NG trade. In fact Japan has to import 80% of its energy.

Building LNG infrastruture is expensive and takes time to build - by which time NG peaks. NG is icing on the cake, but the cake is still going rapidly.

[GreyZone]

Liquification, transport and regasification losses for LNG are on the order of 10%, it is quite energy intensive. Japan has been importing considerable volumes of LNG for some time though. It will definatly help.

It also requires a significant infrastructure to be in place for handling LNG, most of which does not exist in the rest of the world. There are exceptions like Japan but that's exactly what they are - exceptions.

Given the long lead times and the huge capital investments made into such infrastructure of typically $1-$5 billion per facility, and thus the long recovery time for getting money back out (let alone making a profit), even with natural gas peaking worldwide in 2030, it doesn't make much sense to build a large amount of LNG capacity in North America right now. By the time it is built, the peak will be in sight and then we may not be able to even get what's left. (Nations may take it off the market for "national security" reasons to support their own industries, etc.)

For North America, the natural gas situation appears worse because we did make such a large shift to natural gas beginning in the 1970s and it made sense at that time to some degree. So, in a manner very much like oil, North America was an earlier adopter and thus will peak somewhat sooner. Offsetting the depletion of regular natural gas is the potential for coal bed methane recovery. It's not a silver bullet but it might buy us more time in that area too and since we're going to have to be pulling coal out of the ground soon in much larger quantities, we may as well try to recover the methane than just vent it to the atmosphere.

The ultimate bridge energy is nuclear since there is enough to give us exactly the sort of breathing room necessary to migrate to other energy sources, primarily wind and solar. Biodiesel is not terribly viable for replacing current oil consumption but biodiesel might very well be viable for replacing a key subset of current consumption, such as the diesel used in key extraction industries (i.e. mining coal, uranium, etc.) which might then allow us to migrate the rest of the infrastructure to a mainly electric transport system for people and cargo.

[LaurentD]

The U.S. is not going to run out of fertilizers and pesticides any time soon because both can be made with coal.

More energy intensively, but yes. This is correct. It won't be forever, and it's certainly not going to cover our fertilizer needs worldwide. I think urea has a better chance, actually. But, again, in the short term, you're right.

We will not suddenly run out of oil, will we? So we can gradually replace it with coal. Why can't we do that worldwide?
Then it won't last forever, but why wouldn't it last enough to make the transition to the next energies?

As I understand the state of the technology so far, it's quite a bit more expensive to do so, and the process can't be scaled up quickly.

Why wouldn't it become cheap enough before we need it? Why do you think we will need it so quickly?
Actually, my question should be: when do you think we won't have enough oil to make our fertilizers?
What amount of oil per capita will there be then?

Again, you're correct, but doing so would make food horribly expensive.

This is assuming the price of this technology will stay the same.

[Ibon]

Conservation, Doom, Madness.....This is the perennial theme we come back to. Are we really at such a critical juncture? We strive with our intellect to understand and succeed in many areas with our critical analysis. And yet we don't know what will really unfold. I thought I would share some words recently written from the culture of the original first Americans.


Subject: Fwd: Reading from Hopi Nation - "We are the ones we've been
waiting for"


Reading from Hopi Nation

"You have been telling the people that this is the Eleventh Hour.
Now you must go back and tell the people that this is the Hour.
And there are things to be considered:
Where are you living?
What are you doing?
What are your relationships?
Are you in right relation?
Where is your water?
Know your garden.
It is time to speak your Truth.
Create your community.
Be good to each other.
And do not look outside yourself for the leader.
This could be a good time!
There is a river flowing now very fast.
It is so great and swift that there are those who will be afraid.
They will try to hold on to the shore.
They will feel they are being torn apart, and they will suffer
greatly.
Know the river has its destination.
The elders say we must let go of the shore, push off into the middle
of the river, keep our eyes open, and our heads above the water.
See who is in there with you and celebrate.
At this time in history, we are to take nothing personally.
Least of all, ourselves.
For the moment that we do, our spiritual growth and journey comes to
a halt. The time of the lone wolf is over. Gather yourselves!
Banish the word struggle from your attitude and your vocabulary.
All that we do now must be done in a sacred manner and in
celebration.
We are the ones we've been waiting for."

- The Elders, Oraibi, Arizona Hopi Nation"

Taken from http://www.omniparticle.com/burning_ice1.html

[ashurbanipal]

We will not suddenly run out of oil, will we? So we can gradually replace it with coal. Why can't we do that worldwide?

No, we probably won't just suddenly run out of oil. Let's be clear, here, that fertilizer production's main feedstock is natural gas currently, and where oil or coal becomes a feedstock, it only does so by producing natural gas from one or the other. It's this added step that makes the process so much more expensive. To my knowledge, it's only ever been done on a small scale. I'm not aware of any monetary estimates for trying to scale it up, but the dollar value would have to be pretty large.

Anyway, you seem to be assuming that we'll be able to proceed along a more or less analog curve, when the truth is that we'd be riding roughshod over bumpy downhill terrain. We'd have to take up the slack in step-wise fashion, and this will cause some serious hardship.

But the bigger problem is the ongoing added expense, not only of producing natural gas from coal, but also of transporting the fertilizer via the use of oil. This will cause fertilizer to become more expensive. Farmers are already complaining about the cost of fertilizer. They currently can't withstand another increase.

Then it won't last forever, but why wouldn't it last enough to make the transition to the next energies?

You also seem to think that we can just exchange one for the other without so much as a hitch. This isn't correct. We can make diesel and gasoline from coal, for instance, but it's quite expensive to do so. It's so expensive, in fact, that even with oil in the $60.00 a barrel range, no one is trying to do it on any kind of large scale.

Why wouldn't it become cheap enough before we need it?

It might. But I prefer not to rely so much on faith in falling prices. Any time I have done so, I've usually been disappointed.

Why do you think we will need it so quickly?

Because Natural Gas is becoming more and more difficult to move around the planet. It's not like oil; it takes specialized equipment to liquify it, and equipment elsewhere to unliquify it. The infrastructure doesn't exist, and probably can't be built in time to avert some serious problems.

Actually, my question should be: when do you think we won't have enough oil to make our fertilizers?

I've no idea. I'm betting that it's fairly soon, for reasons already rehearsed.

What amount of oil per capita will there be then?

Again, no idea. Outside of a certain range, why is it relevant?

This is assuming the price of this technology will stay the same.

Can you provide some reason to believe that it won't?

[deafskeptic]

Many of you are not going to like what I have to say about the New Age movment and the shamans.

As far as I can tell, the above poster (two posts away) is not a member of the new age movement though. I thought I'd warn you anyway.

FYI, I'm an Anglo from a Norman, English, Prussian and German-Swiss background and to my knowledge, I have no Native or African blood in my family. However, it is highly probable I have ancestors with those backgrounds. I've been mistaken for an American Indian on the internet. If you were to meet me in person, you'd never mistake me for anything other than an Anglo.

In Indian country, those new age shamans are known as "plastic shamans". This is because they are frauds and are not part of the native communities.

For example, Tom Brown who claims to have learned from an Apache elder named "Stalking Wolf" is widely known in Indian country as a fraud. Yes, he's a good tracker and the information regarding surivial in the woods are sound. However, the spiritual information is fake. If you ask Apaches about Stalking Wolf, they will tell you that they've never heard of Stalking Wolf.

Some natives have sold out their own communities by selling spirituality and have been banished from their own nations as a result of their actions.

As for the Hopi, they have a web page on those frauds including Roy Steevenez aka Roy Little Sun.
Here's the url: http://www.hopi.nsn.us/view_article.asp?id=20&cat=1.

If you don't believe me, do a google on plastic shamans. Here are some links:

http://users.pandora.be/gohiyuhi/nafps/ ... /art34.htm

http://www.hopi.nsn.us/view_article.asp?id=20&cat=1

http://users.pandora.be/gohiyuhi/nafps/

http://www.hanksville.org/sand/intellect/newage.html

If you must pay to pray, it's most likely a fraud.

I think that we must look to our own ancestors' pre christain spirititual traditions instead of other tribes for answers. Yes, we have lost the way and we need to change our ways but looking to new age shamans will not be our salvation.

There are no easy answers to our situation. I know that I have much to learn. I used to be part of the New Age movement but learned about the plastic shamans when I decided to do a google on American Indians and the new age movment.

I wanted to know what their take was on the New Age movment. It was quite a shock when I learned about this stuff.

As for coping with Oilpeak, I have no easy answers for any of you. It will require building up a community with real traditions and learning how to live within our own environment and above all, learning to live with the fact that we are not apart from nature.

Our survival and self sufficiency can not be done on an individualistic basis. It has to be done on a community based system. Our consumerist culture has been very anti community.

Our communties will need to be far more respectful of other people's traditons and lifestyles. That will require a lot of hard work and will take decades and even centuries.

I expect I'll get called a racist or worse and I'll end up eating flames as a result.

[holmes]

rogerhb ur alright, man.
Umm just a couple words again for most on this thread. If u meet me out there and u continue to usurp and own and to FORCE others into your percieved "we know whats best for all the children" walk the other way. Do not come near me or my loved ones and friends. Go bye bye. You obviously are demented and in a fantasy world. I will defend no matter what. Go do your pitiful experiments elsewhere and go pander your BuyProducts elsewhere. Im livin like the Sardinians.
And Ludi is right i aint had no problem growin crops. Only infinite growthers breaking their backs to meet the HUMAN Biomass dilemma have REAL problems. No arguments. go blow yourselves up or live in your offices or whatever your cannibalistic vices require. Me no want nothing to do with your sage advices and plastic utopias.

[Byron100]

If you must pay to pray, it's most likely a fraud.

I think that we must look to our own ancestors' pre christain spirititual traditions instead of other tribes for answers. Yes, we have lost the way and we need to change our ways but looking to new age shamans will not be our salvation.

There are no easy answers to our situation. I know that I have much to learn. I used to be part of the New Age movement but learned about the plastic shamans when I decided to do a google on American Indians and the new age movment.

I wanted to know what their take was on the New Age movment. It was quite a shock when I learned about this stuff.

As for coping with Oilpeak, I have no easy answers for any of you. It will require building up a community with real traditions and learning how to live within our own environment and above all, learning to live with the fact that we are not apart from nature.

Our survival and self sufficiency can not be done on an individualistic basis. It has to be done on a community based system. Our consumerist culture has been very anti community.

Our communties will need to be far more respectful of other people's traditons and lifestyles. That will require a lot of hard work and will take decades and even centuries.

I expect I'll get called a racist or worse and I'll end up eating flames as a result.

I certainly don't find anything racist about your post...you're speaking the truth if you have to pay to pray, chances are it's a fraud.

I concur on your other points as well...no matter what happens with Peak Oil, our anti-community and consumerist way of life will have to come to an end...it just sucks that the transition to a new way of living (one that is sustainable) will probably take longer than the amount of time I have left on this planet, and there will surely be a lot of missteps and mistakes made along the way which will make things worse than they need to be. I have made it a practice to always question those with the "answers"...including my own

However it plays out, I'm just bracing for plenty of excitment on the other side of peak.

[rogerhb]

Im livin like the Sardinians.

The choice before us is to live like Sardinians, or like sardines.