ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:WebHubbleTelescope wrote:Overall it looks like straight probability and statistics with little or geology knowledge required. Which is what I have been saying all along.
I think it unlikely that the USGS would do a Monte Carlo simulation as a stand alone assessment without geology behind it, and considering that WHC apparently has a vested interest in NOT finding it ( and when someone points it out to him, to discredit the work if at all possible) , does anyone else want to look to show him he's just wrong again, or do I have to go do this as well?
Somebody please show me how I have gotten something fundamentally wrong. I've been working the math since last June and it seems to provide a good foundation to build from.
- Code: Select all
R(t+dt) = R(t) + (T(t) - R(t) * E(t)) * dt
P(t) = E(t) * R(t)
where
- Code: Select all
R(t) = Current reserves
T(t) = (Triangular, e.g.) Discovery curve
E(t) = Extraction rate (yearly or daily)
P(t) = Yearly (or daily) Production
Other, "virtual" reserves can be inserted into the flow to model latencies. The MC comes in when you want to estimate the T(t)-distribution.
I have several objectives for this approach, any one of which I don't mind achieving.
1. Introducing something fundamentally new to the discussion.
2. Going beyond the heuristics and empirical relationships that I see plastered everywhere, to an approach applied math-minded people can understand.
3. Resurrecting some old but perhaps forgotten techniques buried in the literature (so far nothing has shown up).
4. Showing analogies to other physical processes, like an RC circuit in electronics or a 1st order damped system in mechanical dynamics.
5. Using the formulation to historically analyze or make predictions based on current data.
6. Demonstrate an alternative to and weaknesses of the conventional approaches such as the logistic curve and gaussian.
{
update} 7. Come up with an open-source modeling environment, where all source code and data is made public.
fire away