ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:Now, as far as do they "prove" its there, again, that gets into what you consider "proof". As far as their quantity and quality of work, that pretty much swamps Colin and Co., but "proof", thats a tough one. Proof to the standard of a judge? Proof to the standard of every man, woman and crackpot on the planet? Evolution hasn't been "proved", but in a hundred years of crackpots and shots at it, no one has "disproved" it either, so that does mean its proved? I dunno. Scientific method doesn't work that way.
Oh I see. We've got a double-standard with regard to 'proof'. When Colin & Co. assert low additions to URR coming from exploration and reserve growth, critics like Lynch jump up and down yelling "where's your proof, where's your proof, where's your proof!!!!" But when the table is turned on those who do claim more oil, the criteria for what constitutes 'proof' is not the same. It's cornucopian weasel wisardry. The magic of mushy reasoning. Nobody has disproved the USGS report. So there you have it-- proof. And hell, they worked on their statistical guesses a long time-- more proof. The standard of proof is different for the cornucopian.
ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:So which is more "likely" is an interesting question. The Doomers have been going on since the dawn of man, and as far as I can tell haven't been right YET.
Doom? I don't believe I said anything about doom. I'm talking about oil from a skeptic’s point of view. But doom & collapse? Why change the subject?
I guess your implicit assumption is that oil depletion is doom for civilization. Why are you such a fatalist ReserveGrowthRulz? And since you argue that there will be a peak in oil later, you are resigned to the idea that civilization collapse will be later too-- perhaps conveniently out of your lifetime. It's great that your so concerned about the legacy of the oil age in your defense of its expected endurance. ReserveGrowthRulz, I don't know why you have problems with doomers. Your inference tells me that you are one of them.
I, on the other hand, am kind of a hopeless optimist who thinks it is possible for western civilization to endure beyond the end of cheep oil by making drastic lifestyle changes (i.e. dump the car culture) and making some technological changes (i.e. use communications to help us dump the car culture). I get allot flak from doomer peakers who disagree. I tell them that ridding ourselves of some creature comforts is not the same as doom, but they don't agree.
ReserveGrowthRulz wrote: So...my question is....why does anyone think they might be right THIS time? And how is THIS time different than the transition ( and the Doomers that came with it ) from stones to bronze, bronze to iron, iron to steel, firewood to whale oil, whale oil to coal, coal to crude, etc etc.
It's obvious that you have not studied history that tells us many civilizations have collapsed because they could not make that transition. I recommend Jared Diamond's book collapse where you will see that the transition that you are expecting is not exactly guaranteed.