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Collapse of FTX crypto Bank....a Lehman Moment?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Collapse of FTX crypto Bank....a Lehman Moment?

Unread postby careinke » Fri 09 Dec 2022, 05:44:40

Outcast,

Great Questions thanks for asking. I'll try and answer them in order, It may a few responses:

quote="Outcast_Searcher...I'm not clear on what "crypto layered on BTC" is?


layer 1 is the base layer of a Block Chains infrastructure, it pretty much sets the rules, and records ALL transactions. It is basically the Truth of the blockchain.

Layer 2's increase the functionality of layer 1's usually to avoid congestion and increase speed.
I found this site which explains it in detail along with giving you a look at some of the biggest layer 1 and Layer 2 examples.

If we playfully consider blockchain as the “it girl” of Web3, we’re curious to know — how does she do it all? The secret: layers.

Spanning two main types, layer 1 and layer 2, these interoperable networks work together to store, maintain and distribute information across digital decentralized databases that double as peer-to-peer, immutable public ledgers.

Here, we peel back each layer of a blockchain’s makeup for a closer look at their design, purpose and utility.

Layer 1 is the fundamental base network of a blockchain platform. It executes all on-chain transactions and therefore acts as a public ledger’s source of truth.

Processing a transaction, for most networks, consists of logging a user’s cryptocurrency wallet via asymmetric key pairs and its corresponding coin or token balances. The deal passes through a consensus mechanism — which will be distinct to each platform — to verify and finalize the trade or sale. Additionally, layer 1 blockchains host their own native token, which is used to cover transaction costs, or gas fees.

Determining which consensus mechanism is fit for a platform comes down to a trade-off between three main features: security, scalability and decentralization. This compromise is commonly referred to as “the blockchain trilemma,” a concept originally identified by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin. Whatever isn’t fully covered by layer 1 protocols — typically scalability — can be compensated for in the layer 2 protocol built on top of it (more on that later), serving as an extension to the mainnet’s functionality.



Layer 1 Blockchain Examples
The following list is composed of top layer 1 blockchain networks that power the majority of decentralized applications, or dApps.

Bitcoin: Bitcoin’s layer 1 is the underlying architecture that secures the world’s largest cryptocurrency, top ranked with a live market cap of $367 billion. It operates on a proof-of-work consensus mechanism, which verifies new blocks via an algorithm that uses an computationally-intensive, cryptographic puzzle. Bitcoin is widely considered to be the most secure, decentralized platform — but processing one transaction can take 10 minutes to an hour.

Layer 2 consists of any overlaying network built on top of the mainnet, the layer 1 foundation supporting a blockchain. Typically, layer 2 protocols are optimized for reducing network congestion, lightening the load and increasing throughput of the mainnet. They were created to prevent overdependence or collapse of its layer 1 counterpart. As consensus mechanisms are the defining characteristic to layer 1, so are scaling solutions to layer 2.

While layer 1 chains are the primary security provider within the context of decentralization, layer 2 chains have their own security, but to a far lesser degree, explained software engineer Arie Trouw, who holds over a decade of experience in the blockchain space.

“Layer 2 solutions provide enough security for dApp usage as an alternative to layer 1. They support some or all of the dApp’s functionalities, mimicking the mainnet,” said Trouw, who is also the co-founder of XY Oracle Network, a blockchain protocol currently building a data marketplace-in-the-making. “This allows for bridging between the two layers.”

Layer 2 Blockchain Examples

Lightning Network: Used to support Bitcoin’s main network, this layer 2 addition helps facilitate speedy transactions during heavy traffic — which can take hours — on separate chains independent to the mainnet, reporting the final balance on layer 1 at a calmer time.

and the link:
https://builtin.com/blockchain/layer-1-blockchain

Are you talking about BTC forks (and forks of forks, etc) or something else?


Something else. :) Forks AKA sidechains are a different beast. Forks happen when enough miners support them to break off from the layer 1. Interestingly enough if you own BTC and it forks, you own the same amount of the forked coin as you owned in BTC. Except if the BTC is on an exchange, the exchange may decide to keep the forked coin! (Not your Keys, Not your Crypto).

When BCH forked I automatically got the same amount of BCH as I was hodling of BTC. To me forks are like dividends. :-D A LOT of people dump their forked coin and buy more BTC with it. It's a good idea to let things settle down before buying a forked coin.

quote="Outcast_Searcher"] Etherium a scam? If so, why? (And I understand that you don't like proof of stake -- I have similar issues with that re long term security / confidence in a given crypto using that). Etherium seems to be in the same overall level as BTC in terms of popularity / network size, having futures, and having earned a degree of user confidence, as I understand it.


ETH originally started as a POW coin, actually it still is as the transition is not complete. When it is done, ETH will become a security and not an Asset. As a security they are breaking multiple laws according to the SEC head. All in the name of greenwashing. The founder did not think it all the way through.

ETH serves a valuable function right now and I don't see it going away for a couple of years. It makes a nice place holder as more bitcoin apps are developed to replace it.

Which brings us to the next issue Energy/environmental issues:

quote="Outcast_Searcher" Given the huge energy needs required for proof of work, speed constraints on the system, etc, isn't that a big problem in a world in a big green energy surge to fight AGW?


You really need to give this one up. Frankly, you have been lied to. I found a guest article in Bitcoin Magazine showing BTC energy use is basically a rounding error compared to other major industries including: Gold mining, finance, military, construction, transportation, health care, etc. He also breaks them into subcategories.
He went to a lot of work getting the data and acknowledges where the data may have problems. Here is his conclusion and a prediction.

A few caveats: The above figures are not mutually exclusive — in practice, the all-encompassing building and construction sectors’ energy use is spread out to most other sectors, as is the case with the various transportation sectors. Many of the above figures are reverse engineered from a raft of “authoritative,” yet contradictory, sources.

The main takeaway should be that Bitcoin is a rounding error in the global scheme of things, and from a carbon-intensity point of view, has significantly less emissions per kilowatt than finance, construction, healthcare, industry or the military, and will only improve further in time. My prediction still stands: Bitcoin’s carbon intensity will go from 280 g CO2 per kWh today, to around 100 g in 2026, and zero by 2031, and maybe, finally, we’ll be done with this debate.

This is a guest post by Hass McCook. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/bitcoin-energy-use-compare-industry
So I ask you to please, please, read the article, look at the data, and tell me where you think he is wrong. Let's put this one to bed.

For the rest of you, this article is a great resource for CO2 emissions and annual energy consumption.

That's why I'm not convinced the whole crypto thing actually offers much net, given how well modern chipped credit cards handle daily global transaction loads with reasonable security just FINE (if one can live with banks, which I think we can, as long as there is proper regulation, auditing, etc).



Unless you are a: protestor, Canadian trucker, a citizen of most any country, the government can take it away from you easily. Also you do know the transaction is not really complete for about three days? Money should be sovereign along with Human Beings.

Not arguing here -- trying to clarify your points in my mind.

(If everything except BTC is a scam, given the efficiency and speed issues of BTC, that's a big cunundrum, IMO, re crypto being likely to become really huge, much less take over, it seems to me).

BTW, I still think blockchain, over time, could be a VERY big thing in certain areas -- but cryptocurrencies are just one application of those.


Speed issues are not a problem with lightning, it is faster than your credit card approval, costs significantly less, and final.

Well this was fun, thanks, maybe we can set an example?

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Re: Collapse of FTX crypto Bank....a Lehman Moment?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 09 Dec 2022, 10:31:55

careinke wrote:
quote="Outcast_Searcher" Given the huge energy needs required for proof of work, speed constraints on the system, etc, isn't that a big problem in a world in a big green energy surge to fight AGW?


You really need to give this one up. Frankly, you have been lied to. I found a guest article in Bitcoin Magazine showing BTC energy use is basically a rounding error compared to other major industries including: Gold mining, finance, military, construction, transportation, health care, etc. He also breaks them into subcategories.
He went to a lot of work getting the data and acknowledges where the data may have problems. Here is his conclusion and a prediction.

The main takeaway should be that Bitcoin is a rounding error in the global scheme of things, and from a carbon-intensity point of view, has significantly less emissions per kilowatt than finance, construction, healthcare, industry or the military, and will only improve further in time.

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/bitcoin-energy-use-compare-industry
So I ask you to please, please, read the article, look at the data, and tell me where you think he is wrong. Let's put this one to bed.


Indeed. The quoted reference using a wee bit of sleight of hand here, saying that bitcoin is a rounding error in the global scheme of energy, and then focuses on emissions. Screw emissions, nobody cares about them as humans prove every day creating more, energy used appeared to be the original ask.

So mining bitcoin uses 150 terrawatt hours of electricity annually. Characterized here as as much electricity as Argentina uses, a country of 45 million people. While certainly not a large number in a population of 8 billion, that more appropriately qualifies the scale of this thing. The size of the second largest country in South America.

The comment that bitcoin energy use would one day fall to zero appeared to be counterintuitive. How do you mine bitcoin without it requiring electricity or some other form of energy use?

There is a great show, on NetFlix or maybe HBO called The Anarchists. And it is centered on a bitcoin conference in Acapulco and the folks who fled there to be Anarchists, and then it turned out pimping bitcoin ideas in the land of booze and drugs seemed like a great way to have a party.

Until the price of the things tanked anyway.

So here is my question. With usual "backed by the full faith and confidence of" currencies, generally inflation eats away at them over time. If a country goes into a financial meltdown, you get that to the extreme, and then you arrive at Wehrmacht Germany or Venezuela. And then the doomer angle is usually that PMs will save you in those circumstances, because they hold some form of value just because of their physical nature. I understand these concepts, I think.

But nothing backstops bitcoin. It has no more intrinsic value than my PC does in using electricity to Office. No one pays me for using electricity to run Office, and I could certainly prove I use it. The entire thing that makes it "worth" something is just the idea that there is someone to pay you real world government backed currency for it. Same as a pair of worn out sneakers. Or running Office on my PC.

So, how does Bitcoin dodge the Tulip Mania comparison? It was a fad. It was all exciting while it was happening, but people mistook it for real investing and whatnot, treated it that way, and it lasted as long as it did...until it didn't. And then tulips went back being worth whatever they started at as flowers. How does Bitcoin not arrive back at the same for electricity? At least with the tulip I got the flower, electricity used to earn Bitcoin credit is just gone. I can't trade the Bitcoin back to the power company for the same amount of electricity I used to build it in the first place.
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Re: Collapse of FTX crypto Bank....a Lehman Moment?

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 09 Dec 2022, 12:14:41

Adam,

It is not that bitcoin is better than gold, it is better than a fiat currency. It has no intrinsic wealth, but it has the feature that it is intrinsically limited in quantity by nature of the algorithm. In that way it is more “real” than fiat currency. In theory.
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Re: Collapse of FTX crypto Bank....a Lehman Moment?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 09 Dec 2022, 14:29:32

Newfie wrote:Adam,

It is not that bitcoin is better than gold, it is better than a fiat currency. It has no intrinsic wealth, but it has the feature that it is intrinsically limited in quantity by nature of the algorithm. In that way it is more “real” than fiat currency. In theory.


A year ago, with $3 in my pocket, I could have bought a gallon of gasoline (give or take). Nowadays, with the current inflation rate of 7.7% as of October 2022 that gasoline would now cost me $3.23/gal, accounting for inflation.

A year ago, a BitCoin was "worth" $47,594. Today it is worth $17,165.

How can that be better than a generally stable fiat currency? You think people would be HAPPY having inflation run at 277% of so over the last year in America, when folks like VT are screaming about a lousy 7.7%? It has no more intrinsic wealth than fiat currency, but fiat currency generally has a stability and bitcoin has...advantages for....hackers? Kiddie porn purveyors?

It is certainly limited by design....are you saying that this limitation caused its value to CRASH 277%? Seems counterintuitive. Gold was $1783 a year ago, today it is $1789. It appreciated 0.3%. I can go buy gold. I've got some laying around somewhere from an experiment decades ago when Jimmy was in charge of inflation and the price was going to skyrocket! And it did. Then it crashed. From those early 80's to recently it wasn't near as valuable to have in your pocket as market investments. That made my parents quite well off in their later working years, not gold.

In either case, fiat currency backed by some government or another, gold, those seem to make sense. Why does the limited supply of Bitcoin and its crashing value make it more worthwhile as a fiat currency? YOU want to pay 277% more for diesel to fill up your boat? Because you love Bitcoin? Or would you scream bloody murder like the rest of us?

El Salvador thought it was a great idea. If you read the article, it sure looks like not only is the jury still out, but it certainly didn't solve any of the economic issues faced by the country, and was basically a gimmick to dodge real world financial problems. So....do you and I really want our bitcoin wages paid to us by various pension, retirement or employment systems to be worth 277% less in a year, and you think this is more "real" than the current system? As opposed to...untenable for anyone trying to pay rent, a car payment, put food on the table, etc etc.
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Re: Collapse of FTX crypto Bank....a Lehman Moment?

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 09 Dec 2022, 19:52:44

I want nothing 5o do with Bitcpin, maybe in 50 or 100 years when it has had time to mature.

Be patient Grasshopper.
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Re: Collapse of FTX crypto Bank....a Lehman Moment?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 09 Dec 2022, 20:23:42

Newfie wrote:I want nothing 5o do with Bitcpin, maybe in 50 or 100 years when it has had time to mature.
Be patient Grasshopper.


Oh, stuff that happens after we are both dead just doesn't have the same pizzazz as stuff that happens before that time.
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Re: Collapse of FTX crypto Bank....a Lehman Moment?

Unread postby careinke » Sat 10 Dec 2022, 06:06:19

AdamB wrote:
careinke wrote:
quote="Outcast_Searcher" Given the huge energy needs required for proof of work, speed constraints on the system, etc, isn't that a big problem in a world in a big green energy surge to fight AGW?


You really need to give this one up. Frankly, you have been lied to. I found a guest article in Bitcoin Magazine showing BTC energy use is basically a rounding error compared to other major industries including: Gold mining, finance, military, construction, transportation, health care, etc. He also breaks them into subcategories.
He went to a lot of work getting the data and acknowledges where the data may have problems. Here is his conclusion and a prediction.

The main takeaway should be that Bitcoin is a rounding error in the global scheme of things, and from a carbon-intensity point of view, has significantly less emissions per kilowatt than finance, construction, healthcare, industry or the military, and will only improve further in time.

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/bitcoin-energy-use-compare-industry
So I ask you to please, please, read the article, look at the data, and tell me where you think he is wrong. Let's put this one to bed.


Indeed. The quoted reference using a wee bit of sleight of hand here, saying that bitcoin is a rounding error in the global scheme of energy, and then focuses on emissions. Screw emissions, nobody cares about them as humans prove every day creating more, energy used appeared to be the original ask.

I'll put all my (careinke) responses here in red so you will know it is me. It just works easier for me. There was no slight of hand going on here. If you read the article He gave both carbon emissions AND power use. Also the original ask referenced both. I did look back on the conclusion and could see someone could make that mistake if they did not read the article.

So mining bitcoin uses 150 terrawatt hours of electricity annually. Characterized here as as much electricity as Argentina uses, a country of 45 million people. While certainly not a large number in a population of 8 billion, that more appropriately qualifies the scale of this thing. The size of the second largest country in South America.

I went to your link which provided a bunch of BS, however he gave a source for his info, so I checked it out. Imagine my surprise when it was the SAME source as Hass McCook of my article, that you did not read, used. Here it is: https://ccaf.io/cbeci/index. The number changes daily. Today it is at 91TW. According to WIKI, Argentina is at 123TW, China is at 8,319TW, and the US comes in number two at 3,913TW. I'm thinking the real problem is; why are these countries not producing more energy? Bitcoin as a world money could solve that. :-D

The comment that bitcoin energy use would one day fall to zero appeared to be counterintuitive. How do you mine bitcoin without it requiring electricity or some other form of energy use?

I don't remember that comment. There was a prediction that by 2031 the carbon emissions from BTC mining would reach zero. That said, there is another group working on floating platforms along the equator that think they can come close.

There is a great show, on NetFlix or maybe HBO called The Anarchists. And it is centered on a bitcoin conference in Acapulco and the folks who fled there to be Anarchists, and then it turned out pimping bitcoin ideas in the land of booze and drugs seemed like a great way to have a party.

Anarchapulco!! I would love to go to there, but stuff always gets in the way.. Great speakers, good food, lots of side events, yes including parties. Anarchists believe in rules, just not rulers.

Until the price of the things tanked anyway.
Most OGs understand the halving cycle

So here is my question. With usual "backed by the full faith and confidence of" currencies, generally inflation eats away at them over time. If a country goes into a financial meltdown, you get that to the extreme, and then you arrive at Wehrmacht Germany or Venezuela. And then the doomer angle is usually that PMs will save you in those circumstances, because they hold some form of value just because of their physical nature. I understand these concepts, I think.

Not a question but I can say all those currencies are managed by Humans. Humans are very unreliable and frequently untrustworthy. Gold has no trust issues but people who use it do, plus the government can take it from you.

But nothing backstops bitcoin. Math does, blockchain does, decentralization does and the set limit on quantity and production rate does, and of course public and private keys do. Bitcoin never lies, unlike governments, banks, brokerages, politicians and Lawyers. Its books are always open and the ap always works. It also makes anyone who wants to be, their own Bank. Most importantly it uses no coercion.It has no more intrinsic value than my PC does in using electricity to Office. No one pays me for using electricity to run Office, and I could certainly prove I use it. You have never made any money writing? Sorry you had to share that. :oops: The entire thing that makes it "worth" something is just the idea that there is someone to pay you real world government backed currency for it.That is one option, or I could take it in BTC, or numerous other crypto currencies. You could send me whatever currency you want and as my own banker I can convert it to whatever I want. Same as a pair of worn out sneakers. Or running Office on my PC.

So, how does Bitcoin dodge the Tulip Mania comparison? Tulips are a commodity, BTC is money It was a fad. It was all exciting while it was happening, but people mistook it for real investing and whatnot, treated it that way, and it lasted as long as it did...until it didn't. So commodity trading is not real investing? Wow I better tell my share croppers not to sell any futures on the wheat he is growing. 8O And then tulips went back being worth whatever they started at as flowers. The Tulip Mania was measured in Months and was basic market forces finding a price. It was the very early stages of establishing a thriving industry still in use today How does Bitcoin not arrive back at the same for electricity? At least with the tulip I got the flower, electricity used to earn Bitcoin credit is just gone. I can't trade the Bitcoin back to the power company for the same amount of electricity I used to build it in the first place.Well if that is the case you need to shut down your miners until the price goes up to make a profit, or you could move to a place with cheaper electricity, lots of options


Nicely written.

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Re: Collapse of FTX crypto Bank....a Lehman Moment?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 14 Dec 2022, 01:35:16

News reports say SBF was arrested today by the Bahamian police.

Supposedly they denied him bail and he is currently locked up in prison.

SBF in prison…..what a pleasant thought. No doubt his buddies in the D party will get him out of prison, but for now SBF is getting a little bit of what he deserves.

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Re: Collapse of FTX crypto Bank....a Lehman Moment?

Unread postby careinke » Wed 14 Dec 2022, 03:10:10

Plantagenet wrote:News reports say SBF was arrested today by the Bahamian police.

Supposedly they denied him bail and he is currently locked up in prison.

SBF in prison…..what a pleasant thought. No doubt his buddies in the D party will get him out of prison, but for now SBF is getting a little bit of what he deserves.

CHEERS!


I really question the timing on this. I mean the night before he was supposed to testify to congress? Under Oath? Did you see the charges? Including election fraud.

With the exception of a very small amount of wrapped Luna, I was unscathed by all of this, but I am becoming an even stronger BTC maximalist.

I watched one interview with FSB, and immediately decided NOT to invest with him. Hell a 30 YO male, overweight, with size D breasts. He can't even take care of his body, do you think I would trust him with my money?

When Maxine Waters Blew him a kiss, it sealed the deal. Watching the Dims MSM propaganda divisions fawn over him for being the New Capitalists in the picture with the goal of using all his profits to help humanity, Blah Blah, Blah...

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Re: Collapse of FTX crypto Bank....a Lehman Moment?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 14 Dec 2022, 14:59:23

Yo Careinke: Good to hear you escaped the FTX collapse unscathed with your crypto intact.

Now that crypto is down ca. 70% its a little more interesting to me as an investment, but I still am too timid to invest in BTC or other cryptos. The stock market is exciting enough for me.....there is more data available to judge the actual value of stocks, and if you buy stocks during this big sell off you can potentially get the same kind of incredible growth in value in the stock market as you can in cryptos.

------------------------

I also noticed that the arrest happened just in time to prevent SBF from having to testify to Congress.

Image

AND I noticed that FTX was buying houses in the bahamas for SBF and his family and top FTX people to live in rent free......isn't that exactly the same thing the Trump Corporation was just found guilty of....providing housing at below market rates to select employees?

AND I find it interesting that SBF's parents turn out to BOTH be on the faculty of the Stanford Law School and both very prominent D party members, and they both played a role in setting up and advising SBF on FTX legal matters. SBF's Dad is taking time off from Stanford to help advise his son on his legal difficulties.......perhaps he should also be worried about his own legal problems if it turns out to be true that he was a top legal advisor to FTX.

AND super-liberal and super-crook SBF is a VEGAN (of course) and now he says Bahama should let him out of jail because the jail doesn't serve vegan food. SHEESH!

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Re: Collapse of FTX crypto Bank....a Lehman Moment?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 17 Dec 2022, 14:24:29

Coinbase had a BILLION DOLLARS in withdrawals last week.......and their in-house crypto currency plunged in value, just like the FTX in house crypto currency plunged in value just before it went bankrupt.

I wonder why it took so long for there to be a run on COINBASE....after FTX turned out to be a giant fraud anyone with crypto at another crypto exchange could be excused for wondering if their exchange was also a giant fraud.

The good news is that so far Coinbase hasn't gone bankrupt.

The bad news is that Coinbase had to declare a temporary halt on withdrawals. They say its nothing to worry about, but that's also what FTX said before it collapsed.

Image
Coinbase....nothing to worry about....not at all like FTX.....no no no.......avert your eyes......nothing to see.......

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Re: Collapse of FTX crypto Bank....a Lehman Moment?

Unread postby careinke » Sat 17 Dec 2022, 18:41:41

Plantagenet wrote:Coinbase had a BILLION DOLLARS in withdrawals last week.......and their in-house crypto currency plunged in value, just like the FTX in house crypto currency plunged in value just before it went bankrupt.

I wonder why it took so long for there to be a run on COINBASE....after FTX turned out to be a giant fraud anyone with crypto at another crypto exchange could be excused for wondering if their exchange was also a giant fraud.

The good news is that so far Coinbase hasn't gone bankrupt.

The bad news is that Coinbase had to declare a temporary halt on withdrawals. They say its nothing to worry about, but that's also what FTX said before it collapsed.

Image
Coinbase....nothing to worry about....not at all like FTX.....no no no.......avert your eyes......nothing to see.......

Cheers!


Interesting my Coinbase account is working fine. There was a scheduled maintenance done yesterday, but that's about it. Yes LOTS of people are pulling crypto off all exchanges, but that is just prudent.

Coin Base IS pushing right now for people to swap their USDT for USDC for free. Probably at the request of the US government. They are claiming USDC is the "Safe" way to trade in US dollars. I expect USDT will soon decouple from the dollar and fail. I use neither and just use USD.

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Re: Collapse of FTX crypto Bank....a Lehman Moment?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 17 Dec 2022, 23:58:23

Good luck to you, careinke.

Coinbase seems to be the largest and the best and the most honest of the crypto exchange banks.

AND Cathy Woods of ARKK fund fame is taking advantage of the Crypto problems to snap up lots of Coinbase stock at these depressed prices. Buy when there is a "blood in the streets" is a Wall Street meme....

cathie-woods-ark-invest-snaps-another-11-9m-coinbase-stock

Woods is a smart cookie (in spite of the ca. 75% collapse in the price of ARKK stock) so she must believe that Coinbase is a sound company. Hopefully everything is fine.

Image
Hopefully everything is fine.

Still.......its a scary time out there in the financial markets, with the value of stocks, bonds, crypto, and real estate all heading lower.

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Re: Collapse of FTX crypto Bank....a Lehman Moment?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 06 Jan 2023, 21:15:45

SBF wants to use a half billion dollars he has in ROBINHOOD stock to pay for his legal defense.....but there are two problems.

The first problem is SBF bought the ROBINHOOD stock with money he stole from FTX.

The second problem is the FEDs want to seize the stock shares because SBF bought them with stolen money.

sbf-seeks-access-450-million-seized-robinhood-shares-pay-his-legal-fees

We'll just have to wait and see how the judge rules on this.

It seems crazy to let SBF have access to money that he stole......but this D judge has already made a couple of crazy rulings in SBF's favor, so it's possible he will also let SBF have access to his stolen money as well.

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Re: Collapse of FTX crypto Bank....a Lehman Moment?

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 13 Jan 2023, 09:16:49

Newfie wrote:Adam,

It is not that bitcoin is better than gold, it is better than a fiat currency.


Nothing is better than gold when it comes to protection of capital. For two decades I have watched people rail on gold and go on to lose big on stocks, crypto, even houses! Meanwhile gold has appreciated 10% p/a over that time period.

Somewhere along the way the average person was convinced that they didn't need to save for retirement, that they had to invest and achieve a compound rate return like the big players do. Trouble is there is only so much money wealth created and the big boys have most of it sewed up. Someone holding paper assets today may look rich but they are only one crash away from losing their shirt and retirement security.
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Re: Collapse of FTX crypto Bank....a Lehman Moment?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 13 Jan 2023, 17:14:31

theluckycountry wrote:
Newfie wrote:Adam,

It is not that bitcoin is better than gold, it is better than a fiat currency.


Nothing is better than gold when it comes to protection of capital.


And suffer from a destruction in value. Once upon a time, there I was, a young investor with hard earned oil field money in my pocket. Parroting what you say now, "Buy Gold! The World Is Ending!". This was right after the 1979 global peak oil, back then financial nutters weren't peak oil related, more suvivalist and Pax Americana type stuff. So buy gold I did, to protect my capital!

$482/oz back then, and hey, diversification is good, I collected some S&P tracking funds! S&P was at 146.

And all these years later, having not sold the gold because it would have been at a loss most of my working career, and still in the US market, the change between then and now is $1919oz/$482/oz and 3999 S&P/146.6 S&P. The change is 3.98 for gold, and 27.7 for the S&P.

I protected my value in OUTSTANDING fashion compared to those who bought into gold and were doing the whack-a-doodle doomer nonsense. Some have been doing crazy stuff like this for years now, pretending that something not increasing in value as something else is a good thing. Maybe they just haven't been investing in gold or the markets as long as some of us old timers? Or are just ignorant of markets in general?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Collapse of FTX crypto Bank....a Lehman Moment?

Unread postby careinke » Fri 13 Jan 2023, 18:42:58

AdamB wrote:
And suffer from a destruction in value. Once upon a time, there I was, a young investor with hard earned oil field money in my pocket. Parroting what you say now, "Buy Gold! The World Is Ending!". This was right after the 1979 global peak oil, back then financial nutters weren't peak oil related, more suvivalist and Pax Americana type stuff. So buy gold I did, to protect my capital!

$482/oz back then, and hey, diversification is good, I collected some S&P tracking funds! S&P was at 146.

And all these years later, having not sold the gold because it would have been at a loss most of my working career, and still in the US market, the change between then and now is $1919oz/$482/oz and 3999 S&P/146.6 S&P. The change is 3.98 for gold, and 27.7 for the S&P.

I protected my value in OUTSTANDING fashion compared to those who bought into gold and were doing the whack-a-doodle doomer nonsense. Some have been doing crazy stuff like this for years now, pretending that something not increasing in value as something else is a good thing. Maybe they just haven't been investing in gold or the markets as long as some of us old timers? Or are just ignorant of markets in general?


Actually your results were even better when you add inflation into the mix. The cumulative inflation rate since 1979 is 303.1 %. Here is a US inflation calculator I used so you can check yourself.
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

Gold has basically kept up with inflation at todays prices. The S&P, if it just kept up with inflation would be at $588.53. Congrats!

I bought Bitcoin at $400.00 in 2014 with the cumulative inflation rate being 23.6% my BTC would be $494.48. Right now BTC is $19,953.00 and rising. I win!!!

Seems the real loser is the US dollar...

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Re: Collapse of FTX crypto Bank....a Lehman Moment?

Unread postby careinke » Sat 14 Jan 2023, 00:43:03

My Crypto is going crazy today Weeeeeeeeee :-D :) :o :P 8) 8)

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Re: Collapse of FTX crypto Bank....a Lehman Moment?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 14 Jan 2023, 22:48:07

careinke wrote:My Crypto is going crazy today Weeeeeeeeee :-D :) :o :P 8) 8)

Peace


It was going crazy within the last year in the other direction as well. When run of the mill, backed by the government type currency jumps into the hyperinflating or hyperdeflating realm, then the two will be equal. Until then it seems reasonable to stay away from one that doesn't have a clue what it is worth, as opposed to the other which as least doesn't self destruct, or not, on an annual basis. But for early adopters in the scheme who might never lose money, good for them. Sort of like folks who bought Apple or Tesla stock early, pick the right stock and you too can probably claim to never lose money on an investment. The trick of course is in the timing, and doesn't appear to have much to do with what happens later.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Collapse of FTX crypto Bank....a Lehman Moment?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 17 Jan 2023, 01:03:12

Newfie wrote:I want nothing 5o do with Bitcpin, maybe in 50 or 100 years when it has had time to mature.

Be patient Grasshopper.

Or maybe even a decade or two. But that seems to put a far more realistic perspective on it than the pumpers, who keep claiming it will have appreciated MASSIVELY in a year or two.

I still don't see that it actually solves a lot of problems, I still think the lack of regulation (unless that changes) is a MAJOR problem for investors (as does the SEC), and I still think trying to ignore the fact that mining BTC uses a MASSIVE amount of energy (as Adam correctly pointed out upthread in my response to me alluding to that) is ignoring a very significant issue with BTC.

It's nice that it's back to $21,000ish vs. the recent $17,000ish, but that's STILL well over 10X lower than the $250K to $300K, or even $500K or a cool $million the various pumpers were insisting would be the case a little over a year ago.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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