Doly wrote:From a purely technical perspective, making a reasonably smooth transition to 100% renewables was probably possible up to about 10 years ago. I'm guesstimating, based on my LTG modelling.
Yup. Technology for alternative energy was rapidly improving 10 years ago. It seemed like the transition from fossil fuels to non-carbon energy might actually happen. All the world needed was a decision by the world's leaders to mandate a change to alternative energy as the only way to reduce CO2 emissions.
And the way to get the world's leaders to drive the change to alternative energy is to have them locked into a UN climate treaty that REQUIRED CO2 emission reductions. Thats why I also think the 10 year period leading up to the Paris Accords was a critical time in the climate change story. There was still a chance that something might go right.....until it didn't.
The world had the horrible example of the Kyoto Accords to show them that voluntary pledges to reduce carbon emissions meant nothing. The only chance the world had left to avoid horrific amounts of global warming was to craft a UN climate Treaty that mandated CO2 reductions rather then relying on voluntary pledges.
And the world actually managed to write a pretty good climate treaty which included mandatory CO2 reductions at the Bali meeting. That was the draft treaty that was going to be signed by the world's leaders when they assembled at the Copenhagen COP meeting in 2009. Unfortunately Obama got into a tiff with the Chinese leader at Copenhagen. Obama tried to set things right but the Chinese leader sent a low level delegate to a meeting that Obama had requested because they felt that Obama had insulted them and they wanted to insult him right back. In the end, the Climate Treaty that all the world's leaders had assembled to sign----the draft treaty that would've required CO2 emission reductions----- was never ratified and never signed. Instead the delegates cobbled together a weak substitute statement at the end of the Copenhagen meeting, but the opportunity to sign a truly binding treaty mandating CO2 reductions was lost.....most likely forever.
the-ugly-truth-about-obamas-copenhagen-accord It took 6 more years for a new UN climate Accord to be signed in Paris....the so-called Paris Accords-----but the Paris Accords gave up on the idea of mandatory CO2 reductions and went back to voluntary pledges, so the Paris Accords are just a re-hash of the same approach that failed in Kyoto Accords, and sure enough its already clear that the Paris Accords have failed to reduce CO2 emissions just like the Kyoto Accords failed before them.
So now the world's leaders have wasted three decades patting themselves on the back for signing on two phony UN climate treaties that don't actually require CO2 reductions. The world has been stuck in the worthless Paris Accords for 6 years now, and every year (except when we have a pandemic shutdown) global CO2 emissions go higher and higher. The Paris Accords are nothing but greenwashing.....SHEESH!!
Its time to abandon the Paris Climate Accords and and start negotiations on a real climate treaty that really requires global CO2 emission reductionsPersonally, I think those lost decades mean its too late to stop global warming now......especially when global CO2 emissions continue to go up every year
Cheers!