[AgentR11]

No way China can cut back. Too many FDI's dependent on that teat.

I'd expect a slight of hand really. China's smog problem is real, and they do want to shut down some plants that are poorly sited. However, the rub is in the details; China is no where suggesting they will reduce consumption of electricity, nor even suggesting they intend to moderate the rapid increase in electricity consumption. What has changed, is simple. Russia. Two things really apply, Russian natural gas supplies will displace some coal burning; but the story that doesn't get much play is electricity produced in Russia's East and sold to China (and the Koreas). Its a long game of course, but I'd look for China's CO2 to level off; and their particulate problem to improve; and Russia's CO2 emissions greatly increas for no apparent reason. And the reason will be that Russia is burning coal in Russia to produce electricity to sell to China and the Koreas. In a depopulated zone with lots of water and lots of fuel, and an insatiable customer with hard currency, I see no reason to expect anything short of a radical increase in human CO2 production coupled with a radical increase in domestic Chinese electricity consumption.

[kublikhan]

Natural gas increases in China were not quite enough to cover the reduction in coal use, let alone the reduction in coal use and the increased electricity demand. Increased hydro covered most of that. About half of that hydro increase was increasing hydro capacity(building/upgrading dams), half was a temporary increase from an unusually good year for hydro. There were also increases in wind, solar, and nuclear. And efficiency improvements.

Assuming my math is right:

China electricity changes 2013-2014 (100 million kWh)
2173 total electricity increase
1444 hydro
646 other(wind, solar, etc.)
210 nuclear
-127 thermal(coal/natural gas)

Statistical Communiqué of the People's Republic of China on the 2014 National Economic and Social Development

China exports over twice as much electricity as it imports. Both imports and exports are a tiny fraction of China's domestic electricity production.

The Electricity production of China is 5.40 ( trillions of kWh).
The Electricity imports of China is 7.44 ( billions of kWh).
The Electricity exports of China is 18.7 ( billions of kWh).
China's Electricity - imports had a negative growth (decline) of 86.6% since the end of the Great Recession.

Electricity production, consumption, imports and exports - China

Here was the complete list of reasons cited for the coal slowdown/reduction:

The fall in coal use was driven by a variety of interlinking factors including:
1. A record increase in low-carbon power capacity.
2. The implementation of ambitious coal reduction targets.
3. Slower growth in heavy industry.
4. Improvements in efficiency.
5. Greater use of natural gas.
6. Better than usual conditions for hydropower.

Only one of these six factors – high hydropower utilization rates – is a yearly fluctuation, the rest potentially reflecting long term structural shifts.

[Graeme]

China greenhouse gases: Progress is made, report says

China's greenhouse gas emissions could start to decline within 10 years, according to a report from the London School of Economics.
This would be five years earlier than expected and would offer a boost towards efforts to protect the climate.

The shift has been partly caused by a massive commitment to renewables. China is the world's top investor in wind and solar power.
It has also been replacing old coal plants with cleaner new stations.

'Under-promise and over-deliver'

Many of the changes in power generation have been prompted by the need to tackle chronic air pollution, but China's leaders are also acutely conscious of their country's particular vulnerability to a heating planet.

bbc

[Graeme]

How Capping Coal Can Help China to Peak its CO2 Emissions by 2025 and Contribute to the Fight Against Climate Change

Nearly 80 percent of China's energy-related CO2emissions come from coal. That's why putting a lid on coal is the single most important step China can take to protect itself - and the rest of the world - from the devastating impacts of climate change.

One of China's most important think tanks - the National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation (NCSC) - released two reports (see the English press release and Chinese executive summary) yesterday detailing how a national cap on coal consumption can help China peak its CO2 emissions earlier than its official 2030 commitment date. I was honored to attend the launch of these reports at a meeting in Beijing organized by the China Coal Cap Project, a joint initiative of 20 academic, government and non-profit researchers led by NRDC.

theenergycollective

[Graeme]

China ready to go further on climate change: sources

China appears ready to set a more ambitious climate change pledge by moving up the timeline for peaking its carbon emissions and opening the possibility of sending money to other countries to take action, according to EU sources close to the negotiations.

The declaration is expected no later than Tuesday, following parallel summits with China and the EU in Brussels, and in New York with United Nations members.

This follows a round of negotiations in New York over the weekend between China, the EU, the United States, South Africa, Brazil and the UN. The European Commission’s climate action and energy chief, Miguel Arias Cañete, flew to New York on Friday to negotiate directly with Xie Zhenhua, China’s special representative for climate change, where he urged Beijing to submit its planned pledge for the COP21 summit in December, known as the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), on Monday.

“We are making great efforts to bring about a revolution,” said Xie, noting that as of 2014, China had reduced its emissions by 33.8 percent compared with 2005 and that it aims to reach 45 percent by 2020.

politico

[kublikhan]

rules created by the Government can be changed or repealed by the government.

Prophetic words.

The Supreme Court dealt a blow to the Obama administration’s landmark air quality rule on Monday, ruling the Environmental Protection Agency did not properly consider the costs of the regulation.

In a 5-4 ruling, the justices ruled that the EPA should have taken into account the costs to utilities and others in the power sector before even deciding whether to set limits for the toxic air pollutants it regulated in 2011.

The case, Michigan v. EPA, centers on the EPA’s first limits on mercury, arsenic and acid gases emitted by coal-fired power plants, known as mercury and air toxics (MATS).

“EPA is disappointed that the Court did not uphold the rule, but this rule was issued more than three years ago, investments have been made and most plants are already well on their way to compliance.” Most power plant operators have already either complied by shutting plants down or retrofitting them, or have made firm plans to comply. Furthermore, the EPA’s carbon limits for power plants are expected to shut down more than half of the nation’s coal-fired power plants, which would also reduce the other air pollutants.

Since the ruling only concerns the cost-benefit analysis, the EPA can try writing the rule again if it considers costs.

Supreme Court overturns landmark EPA air pollution rule

[ROCKMAN]

The "logic" of the title of this thread just hit me: So China's only current and, more important, future contributions to AGW is their coal consumption? So in the future China won't consume an ever increasing amount of other fossil fuels, such as the billions of tons of GHG they generate over the decades from that Russian NG once it begins delivery. And soon China which switch from producing ICE vehicles (which now exceeds the number produced in the US) to what....e-cars that are powered by non-fossil fuel sourced power?

Cutting coal consumption (if it happens to any significant degree) is fine. But that doesn't automatically mean China, or the world, will reach PE by 2020.

[Graeme]

Well at least you know that carbon pollution is a problem. Wouldn't it be great if fossil fuel companies did something about it like shutting down! I can see that happening tomorrow. Yesterday, I posted a prediction of Chinese pledges. Today I'll post the actual pledge:

BREAKING: China INDC Puts World Emission Plans Over 50%

As telegraphed by promises last fall and repeated as recently as yesterday by Yang Yanyi, Beijing’s ambassador to the EU, China has kept its word and submitted a United Nations climate INDC. This occurs as the UN high-level meeting in New York winds down and an EU–China summit opens in Paris.

The #1 greenhouse gas emitter’s contribution means that plans from the 190+ UN nations now cover over half the world’s GHG emissions.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang reiterated to EU leaders in Brussels yesterday his nation’s determination to work with the international community to seek a “fair, reasonable, win-win” approach to global climate change mitigation and adaptation.

The new China INDC is now available at the UNFCCC submissions website, along with new plans from Iceland and the Republic of Korea. It reiterates the huge and rapidly developing nation’s commitment made at the summit between Presidents Xi Jinping and Barack Obama in November 2014 to limit the emerging nation’s greenhouse gas output to a peaking target date around 2030. “China will work hard to achieve the target at an even earlier date,” Li Keqiang noted in a statement reported by Reuters.

Scaling up from the 40–45% goal for 2020, the China INDC pledges to cut the carbon emissions/GDP ratio for 2030 by 60% or more over 2005 levels. The Asian nation will also increase its renewable energy capacity, which rose 31% last year, to a full 20% of the energy mix by 2030. A national spokesperson emphasized wind and solar in yesterday’s New York UN talk. China has already initiated carbon emission trading pilot programs in 7 provinces and cities and low-carbon development pilots in 42 provinces and cities. It also pledges to increase forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters over the 2005 level and promote a low-carbon way of life.

cleantechnica

CHINA TO CUT EMISSIONS BY 60-65% FROM 2005 LEVEL BY 2030: INDC

[Graeme]

NASA Satellite Images Show China Building A Massive Solar Power Plant In The Middle Of The Gobi Desert

Satellite images captured by NASA show that China has tripled the size of its solar power plant in the Gobi Desert since 2012. It's another indication that China, pushed by the United Nations, is looking to become a global leader when it comes to solar power after decades of notorious pollution problems. That, and the NASA pictures just look really cool.

NASA's Advanced Land Imager on the Earth Observing-1 satellite aimed its camera at the Gobi, the largest desert in Asia, between 2012 and 2015. The satellite's orbit coincided with an increased urgency on solar power from Beijing, which is trying to reduce its use of fossil fuels by 60 to 65 percent between 2005 and 2030. Climate change observers have maintained that China, the world's most populated country, is responsible for at least 25 percent of the planet's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

Expanding solar-energy systems in the Gobi Desert, where sun and real estate are plentiful, could be essential to hitting that goal. The solar power station was first thought to be producing 5.2 gigawatts of energy between 2009 and 2014. But by 2014 it was producing 28.05 gigawatts and reportedly expanded by another five percent through the first quarter of 2015.

ibtimes

[AgentR11]

Graeme... do those accounting's for China's emissions include CO2 emitted in Russia to generate electricity for sale in China (and the Korea's also..)

It seems to me these two are setting up a massive Good Cop/Bad Cop tag team. We let them convince us to treat them separately now, they'll take us to the cleaners, coming and going.

[Graeme]

The accounting is difficult I agree. But we know that China is the world's biggest emitter at the moment hence the importance of watching their emissions. It's global emissions we are trying to reduce rapidly asap. Video discussion in link below about China's pledge and Australia's.

China's climate plan: how ambitious and what does it mean for Australia?

After a few false dawns China has submitted its plans for tackling climate change from 2020 to the United Nations climate negotiations.

It is a much anticipated moment.

China releases more greenhouse gas emissions than any other country, and by a long way. Observers are looking for positive signs from the Middle Kingdom that it will get on top of its planet warming pollution.

The emissions peak is the centrepiece. China initially committed to the 2030 peak in a historic announcement with the US last November, but has since hardened the language around getting there sooner.

The target per unit of GDP is new. And the plan also contains numerous and detailed measures China says it will pursue to meet the targets, such as boosting green buildings, more efficient transport and implementing a national emissions trading scheme.

These commitments are part of the Chinese INDC that was submitted to the United Nations on Tuesday.

smh

[dohboi]

The linked article indicates that China's carbon intensity goals are inadequate:

http://www.rtcc.org/2015/07/03/china-cl ... -analysts/

China has big plans for clean energy and is aiming to peak greenhouse gas emissions in 2030.
Climate Action Tracker, a coalition of four leading research bodies, gives it a “medium” grade for most of its national climate policies. That is on a par with the US and EU.

But on one critical measure – carbon intensity – the world’s biggest emitter is aiming too low, the analysts warn.

Beijing has pledged to reduce the carbon emitted for each yuan of GDP 60-65% below 2005 levels by 2030.
That figure is “inadequate”, said Hanna Fekete of New Climate Institute.

“The difference between China’s carbon intensity goal and its national actions and goals is disappointing.”

Thanks to ASLR at neven's forum for this.

[dohboi]

China’s reported drop in emissions apparently wasn’t accurate

http://www.vox.com/2015/5/22/8645455/ch ... -coal-drop

[Graeme]

China poised for a boom in green bonds

China is on the brink of a major green bonds push to finance clean energy and low carbon buildings.

By the end of 2015, the country is expected to issue US$4-5 billion worth of the kind of stable, predictable debt institutional investors like.

That is the view of the Climate Bonds Initiative, an organisation seeking to mobilise the US$100 trillion-a-year global bond market to tackle climate change.

“There is no doubt that China is the most exciting story,” the initiative’s chief Sean Kidney told RTCC.

He was speaking ahead of Wednesday’s State of the Market report launch in Frankfurt.

It reveals a slow start to 2015 for bonds labelled “green” but bigger growth in unlabelled bonds that support climate-friendly activities, such as rail infrastructure.

That broader category has grown 20% since last year to nearly US$600 billion, of which 70% was in low carbon transport.

rtcc

[Graeme]

Global Coal Boom Ends As China — And World — Wakes Up To Reality Of Carbon Pollution

“Global coal demand is slowing fast,” is the headline in a June Business Insider Australia story. “The global coal renaissance is the most important climate story today,” is the headline in a July Vox story.

Which is correct? Mostly the first one. There was a true global coal renaissance starting around the year 2000, a resurgence due primarily to China. But it is now stalling.

China was responsible for some 80 percent of the growth in global demand since 2000. You can see that in this June 15 chart from BP’s Group Chief Economist based on their newly-released “Statistical Review of World Energy 2015.”

China, however, has completely reversed its strategy of coal-intensive growth as Climate Progress has been reporting since the U.S.-China climate deal was announced in November. The driving force of this reversal is the terrible toll coal pollution has taken on the health of Chinese citizens in urban or industrialized areas — combined with the growing realization at the highest levels of China’s government that climate change will devastate China and that it must become a leader in avoiding the worst impacts.

You can see in the chart above the result of two of China’s strategies. First, they are working to aggressively take market share away from coal and accelerate the transition to low-carbon and zero-carbon sources — natural gas, nuclear, wind power, solar power, and hydropower.

Second, on the industrial side, they are transitioning away from the coal-intensive and energy-intensive industries that have been driving growth and speeding up the transition to a more balanced economy, with much more service sector growth. Many of the Chinese climate and energy experts I spoke to during my trip last month used the word “sustainable” to describe the economy that the leadership would like.

thinkprogress

[dohboi]

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/20/world ... il0=y&_r=1

China’s Carbon Dioxide Emissions May Have Been Overstated by More Than 10%

Scientists may have been overestimating China’s emissions of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas driving global warming, by more than 10 percent, because of inaccurate assumptions about the country’s coal-burning, according to a study published on Wednesday.

The study’s finding, published in the journal Nature, does not mean that the total level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is any lower than scientists had thought. That accumulation is measured independently. Rather, the finding may affect discussions of how much responsibility China bears for global warming, compared with other nations.

But note:

“This doesn’t change the fact that China is still the largest emitter in the world,” said Dabo Guan, a professor of climate-change economics at the University of East Anglia in England who is one of the paper’s two dozen authors, in a telephone interview from Beijing....

[dolanbaker]

Same story from the BBC but different figures.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-33972247
Confusion over the types of coal being burned in Chinese power stations has caused a significant overestimation of the country's carbon emissions.

Researchers, published in the journal Nature, say existing CO2 calculations had used a globally averaged formula.

But when scientists tested the types of coal actually being burned in China, they found they produced 40% less carbon than had been assumed.

The study says the error amounted to 10% of global emissions in 2013.

[Tanada]

Same story from the BBC but different figures.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-33972247
Confusion over the types of coal being burned in Chinese power stations has caused a significant overestimation of the country's carbon emissions.

Researchers, published in the journal Nature, say existing CO2 calculations had used a globally averaged formula.

But when scientists tested the types of coal actually being burned in China, they found they produced 40% less carbon than had been assumed.

The study says the error amounted to 10% of global emissions in 2013.

Not faulting you Dolan and thanks for the link but that article is very muddy on my clarity scale. Brown coal emits less carbon per ton burned, but to to generate the same amount of electricity you have to burn more tons of brown coal to equal the energy of the black coal. Most reports I have seem consider this to be an equivalent level of total carbon released because it works out like driving a car that gets 20 mpg hauling 5 people or driving two compact cars that get 40 mpg to move the same 5 people the same distance.

Lignite, the aforementioned Brown Coal, often has a much higher water content on a per ton basis as well, so in addition to having less carbon per ton it has more bound water that has to be evaporated out before it will burn completely.

The other factor only mentioned briefly and not further commented on is the much higher ash content of Chinese native coal because they do not extensively wash it before burning. The American obsession with hauling 'just the good stuff' has left us with huge pools of black sludge near our mines and smaller piles of ash where the coal gets burned. China has simply forgone the sludge pond aspect but this leads to much larger ash piles near where the coal is actually burned. Unless they have some technology I am unaware of those ash piles are just as toxic in China as they are in the USA.

[C8]

not sure I understand the fascination with CO2 emissions when global warming is now self reinforcing- the US West is burning down, the Amazon is dying, methane is bubbling- what we do hardly seems to matter anymore.

Its too bad environmentalists and those concerned about GW can't be directed to spend less time on CO2 emissions and more time on harassing governments to fund research on how to cheaply remove CO2 from the air. I guess problems are more fun to follow than solutions.

[dohboi]

There's no 'solution.'

No known method of removing CO2 can prevent catastrophic warming in a BAU scenario.

So reducing emissions is essential, but we will indeed now have done much irreparable harm

C8's view is that of someone who has been beating his grandma, and when it's pointed out that he has already done irreparable harm, he takes that as an excuse to continue the beatings, all the time shouting,

"Its too bad these medical people and those concerned about Gramma can't be directed to spend less time bothering me and more time on how to quickly cure my Gramma of the multiple broken bones she seems to be getting somehow. I guess problems are more fun to follow than solutions."