re: forbes and russophobia
Oil revenues are the greatest source of foreign currency reserves for Russia. It needs these reserves to service its international debt. If these reserves dwindle, another Russian debt crisis and possible default similar to the late 1990’s could occur. The global markets would plunge, but Russia would be hurt the most. Perhaps that would cause Putin to retreat from his apparent plan to reassemble the old Soviet Union.
Russia's international, non ruble debt is very, very small. The amount of that debt held by their government is even smaller; and pretty much all their expenses are in ruble. If Bob's Oil Drillers defaults on a commercial loan, you don't suggest the US has defaulted; you just take Bob's into bankruptcy, divvy it up to cause the least harm to investors, and call it a day.
In addition, I'd note, Putin's objectives are ok with this turn of events; wanting to push down oil and gas as percentage of Russian exports, while increasing agriculture and industrial exports. Success here remains to be seen, and will only really show themselves in a decade or two; but that is the objective.
And finally, it has no similarity with the 90s. 1) Russia is now a net food calorie exporter, by far; much like the US, only bigger and with a much larger proportion of productive land undeveloped. 2) Russia's trade ties with China are now very different. In the 90's they were convinced China would invade, and they would starve to death if it weren't for import of food calories. So no, any parallels between the two points in time is futile and ridiculous. The physical conditions just do not permit similar expectations.
And finally, Russia isn't trying to recreate the USSR. Crimea is the exception, not the rule; they can't even be motivated to take Donetsk which is theirs for the taking; they certainly aren't likely to try to (re)capture the stans, nor the Baltic countries. Compared to D&L the stans and Baltics are useless sinkholes for money. So just no.
Back to the original topic; when someone says the central bank can no longer save the world... save it from what precisely? I guarantee you there will NOT be nominal deflation under any circumstance. If they have to tap a key and stuff $500, $5000, or $50,000 into every checking account in the country to prevent it, that is exactly what they CAN AND WILL do. Nominal deflation is pretty much the only existential threat to the financial system; and the central banks of each prevailing currency have more than enough tools to guarantee that such will not happen. If anything, I would say the central banks are being instrumental in executing "power down"; as food and fuel consumes ever greater proportions of middle and upper middle class income; people will be forced by price to reduce inappropriate, excess consumption; leading to contraction, which is matched with monetization thus achieving power down and a simultaneously slightly increasing money supply. Unfortunately, this version of power down does not produce the communal ecotopia people seem to pine for; it creates an empowered, untouchable oligarchy and operator class to serve them; all kept safely partitioned and guarded from the unwashed masses.