[mike7777]

Last year BP published their 2005 Review of World Energy - Report. This report was cumulated in 2005 for the year 2004. Overall, the report provides great insight to where we stand in world of energy today.

According to BP's Lord Browne of Madingley, Group Chief Executive:
"At $38 per barrel (Brent), the average oil price for the year was almost $10 above the 2003 level. The increase was driven mainly by demand growth, particularly in Asia, where Chinese consumption rose by 900,000 barrels per day (b/d) - almost all of which was accounted for by imports. Globally, with economic growth at a 15-year high, demand for oil grew by 2.5 million b/d ... ... Good data is essential to an understanding of what is happening. This 54th edition of the Statistical Review again sets out the facts."

The BP report is extremely detailed; it relies on hard statistical data dating back to 1965 and it uses comparative analysis to provide information. The report shows hard data in various energy areas, I'll list a few to give you an idea of what information can be found in the report. For the world the report shows numbers and comparisons for:
- Oil Supply, Oil Demand, Oil Reserves
- Gas Supply, Gas Demand, Gas Reserves
- Also, Coal, Nuclear, Hydroelectric, and Electricity

Each area is further broken down by geographical region or by country the data is then analyzed and used for future trend speculation.

As one example, the report shows that between 1986 and 2000 World Oil Consumption (reference introduction image/chart) grew at approximately a 1.8% rate. On the other side of the eqn is that world oil production kept pace. Note, as is barley noticeable on the curve, around the Year 2001 the oil consumption curve took a relatively steep turn upwards showing the overall increase in the demand for oil.

For total world energy consumption the report breaks the world down into six geographical regions. The following table shows the 2004 percent consumption numbers for each region and the associated percent change from the previous year:

2004: % Energy Cons. | % Change 2003 to 2004

North America: 27.2% | 1.6%
S./C. America: 4.7% | 5.0%
Europe & Eurasia: 29.0% | 1.9%
Middle East: 4.7% | 6.1%
Africa: 3.1% | 4.0%
Asia Pacific: 31.3% | 8.9%


More information on this report may be found at BP Global. This article gives you some brief detail that shows where we stand when it comes to oil consumption and production as well as the some world wide energy stats. But what we did not discuss, for the moment, is the increased rate at which were consuming both energy and oil.

michael
Ifenergy.com
IfEnergy: World Oil - Energy Overview
BP Global

[Zardoz]

Very interesting stuff. Thanks for posting it, and welcome to the zoo. I think you'll like this forum, although we're mostly a pack of doom-and-gloom catastrophe fans, so try not to let us get you down.

[clv101]

Campbell's thoughts on BP's report: http://www.energybulletin.net/1175.html

[smiley]

It is that time of the year. BP released its annual statististical review.

it can be found here. http://www.bp.com/productlanding.do?cat ... Id=7033471

[pup55]

Here is a list of countries whose production declined between 2005 and 2006, in order of magnitude of the decline: Units are Thousand Barrels per Day:

Saudi Arabia -256
Norway -190
United Kingdom -173
Nigeria -120
Venezuela -113
Mexico -77
Indonesia -58
Syria -41
Yemen -36
Oman -36
Denmark -35
Vietnam -31
Turkmenistan -29
USA -24
Chad -20
Malaysia -20
Egypt -19
Other Europe & Eurasia -15
Algeria -11
Australia -10
Argentina -10
Romania -9
Italy -7
Tunisia -5
Other Africa -4
Other S. & Cent. America -3
Gabon -2
Uzbekistan -1

Here is a list of countries whose production increased between 2005 and 2006:

United Arab Emirates 218
Russian Federation 217
Azerbaijan 202
Angola 176
Iraq 166
Canada 106
Brazil 93
Qatar 87
Libya 84
Iran 75
Kazakhstan 70
Kuwait 61
China 57
Sudan 42
India 23
Thailand 21
Other Asia Pacific 18
Rep. of Congo (Brazzaville) 16
Brunei 15
Cameroon 5
Peru 4
Colombia 4
Ecuador 4
Trinidad & Tobago 3
Equatorial Guinea 2

So I guess the underlying message of this is: the collapse of the north sea, and cantarell, was roughly offset by the increase by the UAE and Russia and Azerbaijan.

So this would tend to explain why the UAE has enough money to construct a massive artificial island out in the middle of nowhere, and why Russia is able to start to push us around politically.

It does not explain Azerbaijan. I wonder if they know that they are now one of the most powerful nations?

[smiley]

I found this a telling statistic. It is the year on year production change (in %) for 2006 for the world and various segments.

Without the former Soviet Union we would be facing a decline.

What is striking is the decline percentages for the mature countries. To me it seems that the decline rate of 2% we have been talking about might be rather optimistic and that we might be facing a much higher rate.

TOTAL WORLD 0.4%
European Union 25 # -9.0%
European Union 27 # -8.9%
OECD -2.2%
OPEC 11 0.2%
OPEC 12 0.7%
Non-OPEC £ -0.5%
Former Soviet Union 3.9%

[pup55]

we might be facing a much higher rate

You might be right on this, we have talked about the "nordic slide" before, where once the decline gets going, like in the north sea, it really accelerates.

Here is a list of the top 11 countries for consumption decline.

Note that they fall into three general categories: Those countries mainly up around scandinavia that are cutting back on consumption because they want to (Japan is included in this) those countries that are cutting back on consumption because they cannot afford to import oil (philippines, indonesia, Turkey, Egypt) and the US and Canada that switched out of oil for some uses (but are using just as much gasoline as always).

So at least if Russia is supporting the whole game right now, the major customers of Russia, namely Japan and Scandinavia, can see the writing on the wall.

The ramifications of Egypt and Turkey getting into supply issues are pretty serious....they are among the few moderate islamic states over there.

USA -0.013
Canada -0.015
Philippines -0.019
Egypt -0.024
Japan -0.037
Peru -0.039
Finland -0.040
China Hong Kong SAR -0.043
Turkey -0.047
Iceland -0.055
Kuwait -0.104
Azerbaijan -0.107
Indonesia -0.119

[isgota]

Here

It seems that the high oil prices are starting to have big effects on industrialized countries consumption, especially regarding about oil.

In EU and Japan this effect goes even further, consumption fell significantly in a broad range of energy resources and total.

Best regards.

[Pops]

The 2010 energy review has been released by our favorite oil co. The first thing that struck me was gas reserve/production ratio is down for the US - I thought this was to be our savior?

World primary energy consumption is downs sharply, biggest drop in 40 years.

Middle east FF consumption continues to rise drastically - no let up whatsoever.

World oil R/P ratio is up again on reduced consumption! All we need is to keep the recession going and peak oil will be averted.

[dorlomin]

If the price of gas goes down will this not reduce the recoverable reserve?

[rockdoc123]

If the price of gas goes down will this not reduce the recoverable reserve?

precisely. When looking at reserve numbers it is important to remember that both P1 (proven) and P2 (probable) refer to that which has a 90% confidence level of being economically recoverable and a 50% confidence level of being economically recoverable.
It used to be that the commodity price was set by the SEC on one day in late December which created huge problems for many companies. I remember a couple of years ago that particular day had a very low oil price, much lower than realized month on month over the preceeding year. What that meant is a whole lot of heavy oil companies who had high marginal cost reserves had to take write downs. Of course they are temporary and those reserves come back once prices rise but it does get recorded in an accounting sense.
Now the price is set as an average over the year. For gas this is a tough one in the US. In 2008 average gas prices were quite high so companies with shale gas booked lots of reserves. When gas prices hit the wall in 2009 a lot of shale gas and conventional gas was sitting there with a marginal cost much higher than the forward price...hence write downs.

[mcgowanjm]

The Great News about Dragon Kings.
What was before seen as working, will now work against.

Like why do we Bottom 90%ers believe anything that
this now Proven Lying Murdering Criminal Syndicate
known as BP, or Queen's (the Ultimate Dividend Getter, BTW ) Ass Petroleum, puts out.

When there has Never been a reduction in the MAGIC Double
of 1985 with OPEC.
There has Never been a reduction in Reserves from Any Field of Any size.
Even though 20% of oil burned has been done in the least 10+ years.
They can't even get within a factor of Ten on the Gushing
Volcano in the GOM.

And this is the same LYING S of S that caused the Killing of the GOM:

The Review reports proved oil reserves of 1,333.1 billion barrels at the end of 2009, including Canadian oil sands under active development and an upward revision in official Venezuelan reserves. Global reserves are sufficient to meet 2009 production for 45.7 years. On the same basis, reserves of gas are sufficient for 62.8 years and coal for 119 years.

Precedent offers little encouragement. At last year's launch of BP's review, Mr Hayward said: 'Our data confirms that the world has enough proved reserves . . . to meet the world's needs for decades to come.'

'Confirms'. 'Decades to come'. These are hugely confident assertions, rooted in a cultural consensus across a broad and powerful peer group. Mr Hayward added, in an aside that now seems poignant, that any constraints on production would be 'human, not geological.'"

We've got 850 million bbls and we won't pull 1/2
of that.

[dorlomin]

I cannot find a specific figure for new oil discoveries, am I missing it?

[TheDude]

Thanks for the rundown, Roc. Was always puzzled by that choice of date, instead of averaging a price in some way - weren't people up in arms about this, isn't it unfair to set prices at point of the trough in seasonal demand nationally? One could almost imagine a seriously monstrous firm deliberately dumping trades on Dec 15 to depress the price, then pick up small cos reeling from the subsequent asset devaluation. Unlikely - that'd be even beyond Goldinsacks. Still fun to think about as a thought experiment.

dorlomin - BP don't cover discoveries here, no. You can see in the reserves category how nations have made gains for 2009 from previous discoveries + reserves growth, but that's only via inference. The historical data there will show how budding nations like UK picked up reserves as they expanded production.

Other than that you have informal sources like OF2's Catalog. Occasionally companies like IHS will detail recent discoveries in presentations. Here's a spreadsheet I made from AAPG Discovery Data if you're interested.

[Pops]

...believe anything that... BP ...puts out.

Figured it would be you to ask McG.
They aren't BP's numbers, they're 's a compilation.
If you have a better, comprehensive source I'd be happy to see it - especially one showing all the "real" numbers.

[smiley]

If you have a better, comprehensive source I'd be happy to see it - especially one showing all the "real" numbers.

Don't know if "happy" is the right word for the real reserve numbers, "scared shitless" would better cover it. I'm not sure that I even want to know.

But you're right the BP reserve statistics you can just throw in the bin. They (BP) just send a questionaire to the political leaders in the world and they fill in whatever they like. The case of Yemen (production dropping by 40% over the past 10 years while reported reserves increased by 35% in the same period) shows you how thrustworthy these numbers are. Not to mention venezuela which increased it reserves by 200% while production is plummeting. The production statistics on the other hand are real. It is much easier to fake underground reserves than aboveground tankers.

And if I look at these numbers I find the the picture grim enough. Of the 50 countries listed there I could only see a handful capable of a sizable production increase. And most of them have actually reduced their oil production by 10% last year, because of domestic economic considerations.

On the other hand I see list of countries which are in deep trouble with production dropping 5-10%. And this list is growing by the year.

So forget deepwater, shale, oil sands et. If these numbers show one thing clearly it is that these "alternatives" are not able to make even the slightest impression on the oil supply picture.

Want oil? ask OPEC

[rockdoc123]

The case of Yemen (production dropping by 40% over the past 10 years while reported reserves increased by 35% in the same period) shows you how thrustworthy these numbers are. Not to mention venezuela which increased it reserves by 200% while production is plummeting.

I've said before on a couple of threads that jumping to conclusions about OPEC reserve numbers is risky business. Because reserve categories change through time and because of the "economically recoverable" element that goes into the equation you can see abrupt changes in reserve bookings and you can see what appears to be a disconnect between reserves and production. Lets look at Venezuela. The reserve uplift was a consequence of oil above $70 which suddenly made the huge Orinoco tar sands belt economically recoverable. The same happened to Canada as a result of increased bookings for the Alberta tar sands. Not all oil is created equal in the eyes of marketers and consumers. There is only so much demand for heavier oil so it is possible that a country awash in heavy oil reserves could be seeing plummeting production due to maturing conventional fields. Also just because a reserve is seen as being economically recoverable doesn't mean it will be developed immediately and brought on production. From the perspective of OPEC the world is not experiencing oil shortages. There is no need to spend enormous amounts of money bringing something onstream that you will have to sell at what you perceive as a discount.
The story is complicated and you need to peel off a few layers of the onion before you can really tell what is going on.

[smiley]

I've said before on a couple of threads that jumping to conclusions about OPEC reserve numbers is risky business.

The story is complicated and you need to peel off a few layers of the onion before you can really tell what is going on.

Since when is Yemen a member of OPEC?

Venezuela might be an OPEC member, but in contrast to other OPEC members their prospecting has been in the hands of foreign companies like petrobras.

Here you both have a government reserve estimate and an industrial reserve estimate. And the industrial estimates of proven reserves are factors lower than those of the government.

I would not dare to state anything about the proven reserves of for instance SA, but in Venezuela the case could not be much clearer. They are lying.

[rockdoc123]

Well I always look to Wood Mackenzie on this sort of thing as they do their own analysis.

First off note that PDVSA as of 2006 legally holds equity in all of the upstream contracts in Venezuela. Of the existing oil fields they hold the majority at 100%.

Woodmac states that the ultimate conventional recoverable 2P oil is 120 billion barrels. Of that 70 billion barrels has been produced as of start 2010. Hence they recognize a remaining 50 billion barrels 2P and an additional 38 billion barrels of what they refer to as technical reserves (could be recovered with improved technology)
Woodmac also recognizes 205 billion barrels of unconventional heavy oil reserves. This is not reserve waiting to be discovered by is based on a 1300 billion barrel oil in place number that is fairly well controlled.

[bratticus]

Only Two Weeks!!!

BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2011
Mark Finley of BP America discusses the 2011 study on world energy.
Event Description
For 60 years, the BP Statistical Review of World Energy has provided high-quality, objective and globally consistent data on world energy markets. The review is one of the most widely respected and authoritative publications in the field of energy economics and is used for reference by the media, academia, world governments and energy companies. A new edition is published every June.

Mark Finley is the general manager of global energy markets for BP America in Washington, D.C. He is responsible for BP's coverage of global energy markets as well as the annual BP Statistical Review of World Energy. He previously served as a senior member of BP's economics team in London and Washington, D.C. Finley has more than 20 years of private and public sector experience as an energy economist. He is a Phi Beta Kappa graduate of the University of Michigan (economics) and holds graduate degrees from Northwestern University (economics) and The George Washington University (finance).
KEY PEOPLE

Amy Myers Jaffe
Kenneth B. Medlock III
Mark Finley

PROGRAMS

Energy Forum