[Pops]

We're sick! I checked on this myself just the other day!

[wisconsin_cur]

We're sick! I checked on this myself just the other day!

And the illness is chronic. It may go into remission but it is always ready to re-emerge with little notice.

[bratticus]

We're sick! I checked on this myself just the other day!

It's only a seasonal condition. We never check in the winter.

[rockdoc123]

apparently an important point to come out in the review is that in 2010 China advanced in front of the US as the largest energy consumer. This may speak somewhat to the divergence between Brent and WTI

[bratticus]

Does BP know it has fanboys? If they opened a store to sell the review



would we camp out overnight in a line to the door?

[bratticus]

The report could show that 2010 was a really, really good year for oil production. We could see incredible increases in production, say, even as much as 0.05% or so.

The real issue is the "C & C Effect". Almost all the statistics merge crude oil with condensates and condensates do not imply oil production as natural gas wells can be sources of condensates. Gas wells are not "dry" as the condensates that accompany them are liquids like butane in a cigarette lighter is. It helps to think of natural gas as "deeper oil"; the reactions that form oil if they occur at deeper levels underground progress from crude to natural gas.

Coal bed methane is purportedly not a source for condensates: Unlike much natural gas from conventional reservoirs, coalbed methane contains very little heavier hydrocarbons such as propane or butane, and no natural gas condensate.

But shale is:

Range Resources Issues Marcellus Shale Update For Third Quarter Of 2010
Marcellus Shale (blog) / Oct 21, 2010

Range Resources (RRC) issued an operations update for the third quarter of 2010 on its properties in the Marcellus Shale. The company has been increasing its acreage in the Marcellus Shale and recently added 42,00 net acres in southwestern Pennsylvania. Range Resources exchanged 55,000 net acres in other parts of West Virginia and Pennsylvania as part of the deal.

Range Resources reported that the company exited the third quarter of 2010 producing at a net rate of 191 million cubic feet equivalent per day. The company said that 71% of this production was natural gas and 29% was composed of natural gas liquids and condensate.

Crude oil is not even mentioned as a product of production there.

[copious.abundance]

The report could show that 2010 was a really, really good year for oil production. We could see incredible increases in production, say, even as much as 0.05% or so.

Here she is

Global oil production increased by 1.8 million b/d in 2010 or 2.2%

In 2010, world oil production grew by 1.8 Mb/d and surpassed the level reached in 2008. Growth was the largest since 2004 and was divided evenly between OPEC and non-OPEC. The largest increases in OPEC were in Nigeria (+340,000 b/d) and Qatar (+220,000 b/d). Non-OPEC output increased by 0.9 Mb/d, the highest since 2002, and was led by China (+271 Kb/d) - which recorded its largest increase ever-, the US (+242 Kb/d), and Russia (+236 Kb/d).

Methodology
Oil production data includes crude oil, shale oil, oil sands and NGLs (natural gas liquids - the liquid content of natural gas where this is recovered separately). It excludes liquid fuels from other sources such as biomass and coal derivatives.

[...]

[pup55]

ah, my favorite day of the year, only a week or two away.

Things to check:

North sea output and decline rate, if it is still declining
Mexico and Iran net exports
Iraq production
Saudi and Kuwait production vs. the rest of OPEC--did they absorb all of the "cutbacks".
Indonesia net production declines
Japan consumption decline
US consumption decline.

GDP per barrel of oil, that is alwasy a good one.

[Pops]

Actually it's already up...

http://www.bp.com/sectionbodycopy.do?ca ... Id=7068481



Edit: Sorry, that's the Oil R/P chart...

[Pops]

World primary energy consumption which includes commercial renewable energy grew by 5.6%. The largest increase (in percentage terms) since 1973

--

Nat Gas R/P

World natural gas proved reserves in 2010 were sufficient to meet 58.6 years of global production. R/P ratios declined for each region, driven by rising production. The Middle East once again had the highest regional R/P ratio, while Middle East and Former Soviet Union regions jointly hold 72% of the world’s gas reserves

[Pops]

Cool new charting tool interface and save chart feature:

[bratticus]

The report could show that 2010 was a really, really good year for oil production. We could see incredible increases in production, say, even as much as 0.05% or so.

82015 (2008) -> 82095 (2010) is up 80 a 0.0975% increase

Wow, they almost got world oil production to rise a tenth of a percent!

[copious.abundance]

The report could show that 2010 was a really, really good year for oil production. We could see incredible increases in production, say, even as much as 0.05% or so.

Here she is

Global oil production increased by 1.8 million b/d in 2010 or 2.2%

In 2010, world oil production grew by 1.8 Mb/d and surpassed the level reached in 2008. Growth was the largest since 2004 and was divided evenly between OPEC and non-OPEC.

[...]

74906 (2001) -> 82095 (2010) is up 7,189 a 9.5974% increase!!!

Wow, they almost got world oil production to rise ten percent!

[bratticus]

74906 (2001) -> 82095 (2010) is up 7,189 a 9.5974% increase!!!

Wow, they almost got world oil production to rise ten percent!

Yeah, those were the good old days back before world peak oil.

Take the standard deviation of the production rates of 1965 through 1971 and you get 7011.3379893997

Do the same for 2005 through 2010 and you only get 657.7947395229

What happened to the change, the growth?

Code: Select all

From   To     Std Dev
2001   2010   3133.6914759335
2002   2010   2569.6207262932
2003   2010   1657.196490907
2004   2010    700.8648811729
2005   2010    657.7947395229

[copious.abundance]

What happened to the change, the growth?

In 2010, world oil production grew by 1.8 Mb/d and surpassed the level reached in 2008. Growth was the largest since 2004

[bratticus]

Growth was the largest since 2004

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Damn_with_faint_praise

[bratticus]

in 2008 6.7 billion people, 82015 thousand barrels daily is 12244 per-capita thousand barrels daily
in 2010 6.9 billion people, 82095 thousand barrels daily is 11822 per-capita thousand barrels daily

(click)

[Pops]

I updated my energy/person chart using consumption figures since they go back to '65. this first one is total consumption stacked values:



No Olduvai yet.

The second one shows consumption by type better:



Obviously we passed peak oil use per capita way back.
Coal use is way up again.

Gas continues a steady climb.

My old chart which was based on production and had shown a couple year drop in "other" but using consumption figures that drop doesn't show up, need to look into that...

[bratticus]

The new 2009 is so much better than last years 2009.

Code: Select all

year    2010     2011     change
2001    74813    74906    94
2002    74533    74700    167
2003    76916    77075    159
2004    80371    80568    197
2005    81261    81485    225
2006    81557    81729    172
2007    81446    81544    98
2008    81995    82015    20
2009    79948    80278    300

I can't wait for the 2012 2009. By then it might be update to say 81934.

[infinity7]

Why in BP Statistical Reveiw oil consumption is higher than consumption since 1982? For example, in 2013:

Consumption: 91,331 mbpd
Production: 86,754 mbpd