[Ludi]

I'm finding it tedious to conscript valid per majorum observations of the human race into a 'culture' only thesis.

You find it tedious because it doesn't uphold your assumptions. This isn't an anthropology forum; do your own research. I'm not interested in debating this point.

[EnviroEngr]

You find it tedious because it doesn't uphold your assumptions.

I doubt you're right about that, but time will tell.

I'm not interested in debating this point.

The burden of proof lies with the theorist proposing the explanation which does not fit historical data trends and readily available empirical observations. The quixotic, almost platitudinous nature of your comments makes them suspicious, not necessarily wrong; maybe just simply 'Incomplete'. There is, what I would call a preponderance of evidence lending to the conclusion that where there are humans, there will eventually be decimation, imbalance and collapse.

That said, in the rich library of JSTOR at AAAS, one can indeed find isolated examples of peoples who 'fit in' with their environment, for long periods of time no less. For example, if you go to page 21 of Science Vol. 203, No. 4375, 5 Jan 1979, you will find an article about Australian Aborigines. Reading between the lines a little bit, you might come away from it with the feeling that 'Whiteness' is responsible for many of the world's evils. That is to say, the very same one's we're debating right here, right now.

There's little doubt about it, sub-branches do live differently, and do prosper to good effect. It was because I was sensing denial that I prompted you. I was hoping for the benefit of others here that you could articulate your insights because they shine a light on an otherwise dark and unvisited corner of modern life -- the triumph of the properly oriented few. Nurtured properly and given opportunity, these 'few' can "take on the Journey of the Ring" so to speak and accomplish the impossible.

But, we must first comprehend the nature of the generality [the case of Mordor]: the mainstream, aggressive segment of humanity right now (which admittedly is becoming an overwhelming majority) is just plain outrageously destructive of self, other and world (like yeast if you prefer Richard, viruses if prefer Agent Smith or bacteria if comparing to a Petri Dish.) If this isn't acknowledged and dealt with, even you would have to agree, it will be the bane of not only the 'kinder, gentler' humans amongst us, it will wipe out nearly all species of animal and a vast majority of plant life. Like Smith says, not only possible -- Inevitable.

Now, if somehow, we can get past Sauron, into Mordor and into Orodruin, we have a fighting chance to put an end to the "Ring" of destruction.

{typo corrections; EE}

[somethingtosay]

Your reference to Tolkien is apt. The more I ponder this dilemma of the Tragedy of The Commons, the more I realize that the answer in within our own individual Choices. Frodo, whom accepted his lot in life and carried out a simple but suicidal task, managed to overcome and reject the lure of the One Ring and all it represented.

JRR Tolkien was a Great War veteran whom witnessed the horror of war and the breakdown of civil society and witnessed the relentless madness that normal people can inflict on others when they are consumed by power and greed. His epic is a reflection on what he felt was wrong and right about those dark times - and how simple personal morals and selfless choices can make a big difference.

I concur with that.

[PenultimateManStanding]

Sure, Tolkein is beloved by many of us. My oldest brother has read the trilogy once a year for over 35 years. I thought four or five times was enough. Is it a map of our current deadly situation? In a psychological sense we all come from the same utopian womb where our every wish was no more thought than granted so much so that we didn't even need to think it. We start out as god and then get born into a world of suffering and conditioning to put us in our place. Would we all do as well as Frodo? Given the chance? Its doubtful and here we are at history's juncture to reap the whirlwind.

[somethingtosay]

I do believe we have to come up with a better view and understanding of ourselves and of our place. If we don't do that - and fall back on all the means of the past - then we will likely witness the Greatest Tragedy of The Commons the world has faced yet. I view this with much concern.

I accept that the physical and animal world is structured as Montequest has moderated in his Liebigs and Entropy discussions. Humans are part of the animal domain and so we have the full capability of acting in the ways of the animals and having the same issues that they live with. Humans are also subject to the physical laws of the universe. Reason and Choice are assets mankind has over the animal domain which, seems to me, allows mankind to achieve a higher relationship to the world. We are suppose to excercise Reason and Choice, not dumb them down. Tolkien and his generation witnessed results of mankind operating at the animal level - to the point where most veterans kept silent for their whole lives on the horror they experienced - and I choose to learn from their experience. ("The War to end all Wars"). I see the coming decades as a challenge to see if we finally overcome the Tragedy of The Commons, because if we don't - it's anyones guess how far mankind will fall.

Tolkien's work is not a model of the past and future, but an account and discussion of the themes that define the human condition, much the same way other great writers like Shakespeare or Chekov or Ernest Hemingway tell us somthing about ourselves.

[EnviroEngr]

Cross Reference on the Aborigines:
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic5078.html#64278

[Yavicleus]

Read Heinburg's "The Party's Over" first, then "Powerdown." Both are great books, that don't pull the punches. Not totally doom and gloom. Pragmatic, and fact filled.

His writing style is very...scholarly though. Not quite approchable by many, but it was fine with me.

[Bandidoz]

I found this book very lucid and easy to read; I managed to get through it in a weekend. Although by the time I'd read it I'd already been through much of the dieoff site, read ASPO newsletters, and watched both of "The Money Programme" programmes featuring Colin Campbell, so I was already very familiar with much of the material and concepts within.

The most important contribution I found in this book was the explanation of EROEI and sample values for various renewables.

Rating = *****

[azur]

Does Heinberg exaggerate to shock us into action? His is a highly pessimistic view of the future. Although identifying hydrogen fuel cells as a potential long term solution, Heinberg’s vision of the future would seem to have us retreating to communes living off the land with a total collapse of the industrial world as we know it.

That is one view, but surely when energy prices rocket in the near future we will see public pressure force governments to finally take seriously the problem of finding a cost effective alternative energy source. With enough funding we must surely hope that hydrogen fuel cells can be perfected and implemented before a total collapse of the industrial world takes place.

This is a profoundly depressing but thought provoking book. It should act as a wake up call to illustrate what the future may hold if we do not take some desperate action immediately to build an alternative energy system for post PO.

[MoogSM]

The Party's Over was my second step into researching Peak Oil (The End of Oil was the first). And I think it's a good one, for those of you looking to try something else.

Heinberg does some nice things here. First, he places the current energy crises in historical perspective, which helps you realize that this is really nothing new (in some sense). For those of you more interested in this topic, Heinberg uses Tainter's The Collapse of Complex Civilizations as his guide, but I would definitely recommend instead Jared Diamond's latest book, Collapse.

Heinberg also does a great job actually describing energy in much more scientific terms. I finally understood that hydrogen was only a mover of energy, and that the hydrogen economy would require other energy sources. He does a great job laying out the significant limitations of alternative energy sources and their strengths. I tend to think he's more realistic than an optimist like Roberts, but I hope to God that I'm wrong.

In terms of the last chapter, or the last couple chapters (I forget), that's a different step. Analysis of the present situation is one thing, but speculation as to what's gonna happen post-peak is something else. Even if you're not entirely convinced about peak oil and alternative energy sources, I believe this is important. It's important to understand the catastrophic potential of the situation. Once this becomes apparent, the notion of just tossing Peak Oil off as another apocalyptic prediction becomes a fool's game. If it's true, it's big trouble.

I would recommend this book as a second swim into peak oil. His leftist tone would make first-timers believe this to be propaganda, and it's not nearly as readible as The End of Oil (for example).

[Raxozanne]

Does Heinberg exaggerate to shock us into action? His is a highly pessimistic view of the future. Although identifying hydrogen fuel cells as a potential long term solution, Heinberg’s vision of the future would seem to have us retreating to communes living off the land with a total collapse of the industrial world as we know it.

Tell me what's so wrong about living off the land in communes? I think it would be a better way of life than the stress-filled society we live in today. At least we could revisualise what is important in life (and no it doesn't include lip-stick and eye-liners)

Im feeling like this is exactly the stuck-up sort of thinking that got us into this mess into the first place. Always wanting better, always wanting more...

[clv101]

Has anyone seen The Party's Over Booklet as sold at the Post Carbon Institute? Is it any good? Is there an electronic version available for free (the printing and handling must cost $1 so this can't by a money maker)?

Link

[J-Rod]

There's a link to download the pdf off of the postcarbon site.

http://www.postcarbon.org/DOCS/handouts ... ooklet.pdf

[alemoa]

Hi,

the link to the Postcarbon Institute goes to nowhere and a search on their site also leads to dead links.

Did anyone download the booklet and can send it to me?

Thank you
Alemoa

[clv101]

Not sure if it's the same thing but this might be it: http://sydneypeakoil.com/leaflets/EndOfOilBooklet.pdf

[alemoa]

Thanks for the link.

It says it was prepared by the Postcarbon Institute so I guess this is it - THANKS

Alemoa

[Bandidoz]

Is this now at Second Edition? What's changed?

[Heineken]

Read Heinburg's "The Party's Over" first, then "Powerdown." Both are great books, that don't pull the punches. Not totally doom and gloom. Pragmatic, and fact filled.

His writing style is very...scholarly though. Not quite approchable by many, but it was fine with me.

I found "The Party's Over" vastly better as a piece of rhetoric than "Powerdown." The latter book disappointed me with its extremist editorializing and long political digressions. The message of "Powerdown" is extremely important, but it is conveyed neither elegantly nor (for me) convincingly. Again, the culprit is poor editing. I don't blame the author, but whoever handled the manuscript for the publisher.

[UnpreparedMF]

I read Heinberg's book about three weeks ago and, regardless of its shortcomings in terms of writing style or politicizing, it has really changed my outlook on life. This was my introduction to the concept of PO and it really tipped my foundation. For three days I was walking around like Sarah Conner in the Terminator movies...I just knew what was going to happen to Skynet. Then, I remembered the cheesy line from the second movie, "...no fate but that which we make ourselves". While it is just a movie line and this is a serious topic, I think that it is appropriate in two ways:

#1.) We have created this situation. The book does a good job of laying out the Peak Oil argument in a very logical, approachable way. Granted, when I try to explain my newly altered world view to people like my wife or friends, I sound like a raving lunatic, but I know that there are sound ecological reasons to be concerned with the impending reduction of readily available energy. We may not be able to adequately predict and plan for what will happen, but it seems pretty obvious that if we do not plan some intelligent responses fairly quickly, we are in for some dire results. Which brings me to my second point.

#2.) There is absolutely no good in believing that it is too late to do anything. It may be true that, no matter what, we may be headed for trouble (I found it ironic that the quote was sttributed to "Dyson"), but given the vast quantity of variables, no one really has any certainty what will happen. It is important that each person that reads this book and believes its message goes on to try and improve themselves in some way. We must prepare better, we must become smarter and communicate better. We need to be open minded and tough. Even the doomers that are ready to hunker down and look out for Number One need to realize that if its worth surviving, then it is also worth aspiring to More. We might get knocked down as a species a couple of pegs but as it is for individuals, so must our collective response be that we get back on that bike and ride.

I am grateful for this forum because I like the values of a lot of the people I see here. We may not always agree, but for the most part everyone here is committed to making a contribution to the future.

[MrEnergyCzar]

Here's my book review of, "The Party's Over" by Richard Heinberg.

http://youtu.be/gsPm6tNU10I

MrEnergyCzar