[tmazanec1]

Keep regular watch over this site: http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/BreakingNews.html

[stu]

This was the first website I found that educated me on Peak Oil. Definately worth a look if you've not been there yet. Though I think Matt Savinar believes that every single one of us is going to die and that there is no hope.

Personally I think that billions are going to die in the next 20 years but the human race will still come through it.

[Permanently_Baffled]

LOL surely this is a contradiction. How can we watch the crash unfold on matt's website?? if his views are correct the internet will not be available or we will all be dead before we get a chance to observe the crash unfold.....

PB

BTW Stu I live just outside Southampton , how you think we will fare?

Use the pm if you want....

[Ayoob]

It's going to be a long friggin time before Matt's site goes down. Come on, guys, this is many many years in the future. We'll have a soft landing.

First, we'll have another economic recession, driving unemployment up again. Multiple families in the same household, just like it was back in the day. It'll suck, but we'll make it through that phase without too much trouble. This is years off. Minimum, 2008-2010, assuming Peak is in 2007.

Next, shortages of certain things. You won't be able to go to the store to get anything/everything 24/7/365. A little black market will spring up. People will think this is the Great Depression, but it won't be. This will take time as well. We have a lot of stuff here in the States. Garage sales will be decent moneymakers for a while. I bet a lot of bicycles will be stolen. Tons of them. There's a lot of bikes out here, though. There's enough to go around. We'll see this stretch out for years. 2010-2015? Gradually decreasing standard of living. I hope you have a relative with a big house that's all paid off. If not, squatting in apartment buildings or churches might become more common.

Then, shortages of everything. Gradually, more and more stuff will become unavailable at any price. We'll be eating more oatmeal and less bacon and eggs. [homer] Ohhhh, bacon....[/homer] This is going to be a tough adjustment.

People will move to farms and get jobs in the farms doing manual labor. They'll live in little shacks just like the other third world people. Eventually, some kind of organized local production of goods will resume on a small scale and very low-tech. I bet the first thing to show up will be local beer/wine/hard liquor. When a couple of your friends take up homebrewing as a recreational activity you will know what's up. 2015 and on.

I really don't think we're going to have a general dieoff due to starvation. It'll be more like gang warfare. You'll pay protection to the local Gangster Disciples or they'll take all your shit. Or you'll be the local Gangster Disciples. Either way... 2020 and on will be tough. Hopefully, the kids that are very young right now will take a realistic attitude toward all this and learn to play nice with each other. I don't know whether Europe will be better than the US. Europe has a long history of war among the European nations, and the US/Canada/Mexico don't. Don't know how this will play out, but we'll see.

I wonder what Africa will look like? I'm willing to bet a couple of rich Americans, Europeans, Japanese and a couple other groups will try to set up shop there with all the natural resources they have. Colonization, part three.

[Permanently_Baffled]

It's going to be a long friggin time before Matt's site goes down. Come on, guys, this is many many years in the future. We'll have a soft landing.

First, we'll have another economic recession, driving unemployment up again. Multiple families in the same household, just like it was back in the day. It'll suck, but we'll make it through that phase without too much trouble. This is years off. Minimum, 2008-2010, assuming Peak is in 2007.

Next, shortages of certain things. You won't be able to go to the store to get anything/everything 24/7/365. A little black market will spring up. People will think this is the Great Depression, but it won't be. This will take time as well. We have a lot of stuff here in the States. Garage sales will be decent moneymakers for a while. I bet a lot of bicycles will be stolen. Tons of them. There's a lot of bikes out here, though. There's enough to go around. We'll see this stretch out for years. 2010-2015? Gradually decreasing standard of living. I hope you have a relative with a big house that's all paid off. If not, squatting in apartment buildings or churches might become more common.

Then, shortages of everything. Gradually, more and more stuff will become unavailable at any price. We'll be eating more oatmeal and less bacon and eggs. [homer] Ohhhh, bacon....[/homer] This is going to be a tough adjustment.

People will move to farms and get jobs in the farms doing manual labor. They'll live in little shacks just like the other third world people. Eventually, some kind of organized local production of goods will resume on a small scale and very low-tech. I bet the first thing to show up will be local beer/wine/hard liquor. When a couple of your friends take up homebrewing as a recreational activity you will know what's up. 2015 and on.

I really don't think we're going to have a general dieoff due to starvation. It'll be more like gang warfare. You'll pay protection to the local Gangster Disciples or they'll take all your shit. Or you'll be the local Gangster Disciples. Either way... 2020 and on will be tough. Hopefully, the kids that are very young right now will take a realistic attitude toward all this and learn to play nice with each other. I don't know whether Europe will be better than the US. Europe has a long history of war among the European nations, and the US/Canada/Mexico don't. Don't know how this will play out, but we'll see.

I wonder what Africa will look like? I'm willing to bet a couple of rich Americans, Europeans, Japanese and a couple other groups will try to set up shop there with all the natural resources they have. Colonization, part three.

This is a soft landing ? , great!.....

PB

[trespam]

This is a soft landing ? , great!

I agree with Ayoob. I think our biggest problem is going to be unemployment and chaos control. As economic growth turns into economic decline, the many non-essentials that people have become accustomed to will cease to be available except to rich and powerful. Plastic surgery, grossly obese eating habits combined with nonsensical diet plans, Christmas garbage purchased and exchanged in lieu of real human exchange--all this will go by the wayside. As it does, the people who make their livings with this crap will be in need of sustenance. What to do, what to do?

I do think there will be a future in crowd control, private security, and police activities in general.

[Fatherof4]

I wonder what Africa will look like? I'm willing to bet a couple of rich Americans, Europeans, Japanese and a couple other groups will try to set up shop there with all the natural resources they have. Colonization, part three.

I was just reading "Crossing the Rubicon" and it seems as though this is what already is happening in Russia.

[The_Virginian]

PB you will need all that lovely Wiskey Scotland makes when the peak hits. Try for a Soft Bottle landing.

BTW, Whats your favotie cheap wiskey? Mine is Dirk, or Highland Poacher.

[Agren]

BTW, Whats your favotie cheap wiskey?

Contradiction in terms!

[smiley]

Ayoob, one thing you're assuming is that the effects of the decline will be more or less evenly spread. I think it is part of human nature to take care of yourself first, even if that means that other people are suffering.

Globally the first countries that will be cut off from the oil supply are the poor countries. By denying other countries oil the consumption in the west can still keep growing. Between 2000 and 2003 the total oil production decreased. Yet in the same period the oil consumption of Europe and the US increased. If this is holds, then the real effects of the peak in the form of shortages won't reach us until a few years after the actual peak.

Within one country I can see the same thing happening. The rich part of the country will still be driving SUV's when the poor part is having trouble to find the oil to heat their houses.

From reading the various posts here I believe that many people believe that peak oil is some kind of equalizer. It will bring those flashy corporate people back to earth, and re-establishes the value of the traditional agricultural society. I think this is more wishful thinking than reality. The reality is that corporate America and corporate Europe holds all the cards. If anything PO will be a divider, dividing the country between those who can afford to buy energy, to buy solar panels, to buy a wind mill and those who can't.

And those who can afford all that will be definitely better off than those who can't.

BTW, Whats your favotie cheap wiskey? Mine is Dirk, or Highland Poacher

I find most cheap whiskeys plainly disgusting. The only one I sometimes drink is Johnny Walker Red Label. That's because I like Talisker and JW Red uses a lot of Talisker in their blend.

[Permanently_Baffled]

:
BTW, Whats your favotie cheap wiskey?

LOL

Nice spelling , have you been drinking ....?

I must admit I hate whiskey, I'd rather pickle my (limited) brains on beer and wine .....

Its the only way to cope with PO ......

[pea-jay]

From reading the various posts here I believe that many people believe that peak oil is some kind of equalizer. It will bring those flashy corporate people back to earth, and re-establishes the value of the traditional agricultural society. I think this is more wishful thinking than reality. The reality is that corporate America and corporate Europe holds all the cards. If anything PO will be a divider, dividing the country between those who can afford to buy energy, to buy solar panels, to buy a wind mill and those who can't.

The rich in this scenario better have a lot of security guards, high walls and perhaps a facist regime to protect them. Otherwise the havenots will overwhelm them. Oh yeah, they better have their own food supply too (protected of course) or they will be as good as dead.

I think the soft landing/facist/neofeudalist crowd is assuming an orderly decline or management of the economy and government. I don't see how that can happen. As pointed out in other threads our whole economic system, finance system, hell our money itself is predicated on eternal growth, debt financing and limitless resources. As bad as it was during the great depression, we still had virtually limitless resources and the ability to finance alot of government activities with debt. This cannot be the case with peak oil. Our whole government's ability to continue to borrow will eventually be called into question. Society will face a year in year out decline in availble energy. And what the hell we back the currency with? The full faith and credit of the US goverment? Without a functioning economy, endless pile of debt, useless currency and limited energy whats going to hold us together? Who's going to run the legal system, law enforcement? I haven't heard any convincing arguement on how modern civilization that STILL operates as if resources were unlimited survive in an orderly manner when one or more of those resources were cut off.

Competing for the last of those resources certainly isn't going to cut it.

[BlueGhost]

LOL surely this is a contradiction. How can we watch the crash unfold on matt's website?? if his views are correct the internet will not be available or we will all be dead before we get a chance to observe the crash unfold.....

PB

BTW Stu I live just outside Southampton , how you think we will fare?

Use the pm if you want....

Makes 3 of us I'm just off the Avenue. Personally think this place is too close to major pop centers.

[Mower]

If anything PO will be a divider, dividing the country between those who can afford to buy energy, to buy solar panels, to buy a wind mill and those who can't.

And those who can afford all that will be definitely better off than those who can't.

That may be an immediate result but the masses wouldn't stand for it (I wouldn't). What will happen is the masses will revolt and bring down whatever is left of our corrupt and divisive society. The rich fucks and power wielders will be beaten to death by the mobs (and rightfully so).

[BabyPeanut]

I hope you have a relative with a big house that's all paid off. If not, squatting in apartment buildings or churches might become more common.

People are already living in storage facilities in the US.

Mother Reportedly Left Kids For Three Nights
Girls Remain In Social Worker's Care

POSTED: 9:46 am EST November 23, 2004
UPDATED: 6:58 pm EST November 23, 2004
LA PLATA, Md. -- A woman told Charles County sheriff's investigators that after she locked her 4- and 5-year-old daughters in a storage unit, she left them in the cramped, unheated space for three nights while she spent at least one night at her mother's home.

Felicia Dorsey, 33, told investigators that she locked the two girls in the shed at 3 p.m. Nov. 16, according to an affidavit released by county District Court authorities. It states that the children, before they were found Friday, spent many hours alone in the shed, including one stretch of 22 hours.

Dorsey described the girls as her biological daughters. But Norris West, a spokesman for the state Department of Human Resources, said Monday that social services officials suspect she is not their mother. He declined to elaborate, but asked that anyone with information about the relationship between Dorsey and the girls to call county social services department.

The girls remain in the care of social workers.

Dorsey, a convenience store worker, has been homeless since being evicted Nov. 11 from a Waldorf apartment, authorities said. After locking the children in the $65-a-month shed Nov. 16, Dorsey "went to her mother's house where she slept for the night," the affidavit states.

The 6-by-12-foot shed, at Budget Self Storage in Waldorf, was packed with Dorsey's belongings and illuminated by an overhead light bulb. Nighttime temperatures in the area last week hovered in the upper 30s and low 40s. When the girls were found, they were wearing coats, authorities said.

Dorsey checked on the youngsters at 8 a.m. Wednesday, 17 hours after she had locked them in, according to the affidavit. It states that she then returned to her mother's home, but it does not say where she spent Wednesday night.

Dorsey next visited the shed to check on the children 22 hours later, at 6 a.m. Thursday, then again at 4 p.m. Thursday, according to the affidavit. The affidavit does not say where Dorsey spent Thursday night.

The affidavit states that Dorsey next visited the shed at 8:30 a.m. Friday, 16 hours after she had last seen the two girls, then went to her job as an assistant manager of a Dash In convenience store about two miles away.

The manager of the storage facility heard the children inside late Friday morning and called the sheriff's office. Investigators said they found no food or water in the shed. According to the affidavit, authorities found "a container filled with a substance consistent with urine" in the shed.

The girls did not appear harmed or disheveled, although the storage manager described them as appearing to be disoriented.

Two other children, ages 12 and 13, whom Dorsey said are her son and daughter, are staying with a relative of Dorsey's, authorities said.

Dorsey, arrested Friday at work, is charged with child endangerment and leaving a child unattended. She remains free on $50,000 bond posted by the Ministers Alliance of Charles County. Her initial court appearance is scheduled for Nov. 29.

A spokeswoman for the religious organization, Sandy Washington, has said Dorsey told her that she couldn't find space for her family at homeless shelters. Washington had no details about Dorsey's earlier attempts to find space, but said Dorsey had not approached the religious group for help in obtaining housing.

http://www.nbc4.com/news/3942343/detail.html

On this NPR audio broadcast

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/stor ... Id=4182439

they said this was common now to use public storage as housing.

[The_Virginian]

Nice spelling , have you been drinking ....?

I must admit I hate whiskey, I'd rather pickle my (limited) brains on beer and wine .....

No actualy I just don't rush to proofread like I should...and if you think I spell funny, yopu should have seen me before university!

Actualy, I've just been getting back into Whiskey. Beer is still my #1 love. Not just pilsners, ales, belgians, halfwiezens etc. but really good beer, preferably barely and high AL content.

A good Organic merlot, or cab-sav is all good. (or better yet an 80% cab, 20% Merlot mix, no friggin sulfites /Organic, like what I had tonight..only one glass BTW).

The only one I sometimes drink is Johnny Walker Red Label. That's because I like Talisker and JW Red uses a lot of Talisker in their blend.

Wow. Johnny Red lable. that and "Grants family reserve" (the swill they could not fill in the Glenfiddich lable) has got to be some of the most overpriced stuff out there IMHO.

Black lable and Chevas Regal are ok for expensive blends.

But Red is fire-water man.

I think you should try a mild and cheap whiskey I mentioned above called Highland Poacher by Charlie Reese and sons. co. while it does lack some flavor of Chevas or Black lable, it is Smooooth stuff. Much better than red lable IMHO, and 1/2-1/3 the price.

Gleefuly (re)discovering Cheap Whiskeys.

[gg3]

The high-and-mighty have further to fall than the already-humble. This by itself suggests that they'll take a tumble, though perhaps will still have comparative advantages.

To this add the issues of maintaining "control" and power differentials against a rising tide of mass discontent. The sheer logistics make it impossible: just as it ultimately became impossible for communist states to maintain the coordination & control needed for centrally-planned economies. Think combinatorial math, and complex system dynamics.


How people respond to crises: Extrapolating from an experiment with monkeys.

When captive monkeys are given "enough" bananas, each eats his/her share and their "society" behaves in a stable and predictable manner. When a significant excess of bananas is introduced, what happens is that the social structure becomes unstable: much hoarding of and fighting over surplus bananas, even as they go to rot because they can't be eaten.

When human societies face sudden crises such as natural disasters, that rapidly reduce the material wellbeing of individuals, the predominant behavior is an increase in cooperation among the vast majority, and an increase in parasitic and predatory behaviors by a minority (e.g. looting, price-gouging, etc.). When human socities have significant surplus wealth, then you see the tendency toward unstable-state behavior characterized by an increase in fighting over the surplus.

So far, the behavior of humans roughly parallels that of our ape cousins.

What I don't think we know very well, is what happens to humans when they start with a surplus and then find themselves moving *more gradually* into a state of scarcity. However, one could try the relevant experiment with apes, and chances are it will be instructive.

[stu]

The website and book that first bought awareness about PO to myself and doubtless many others.

Savinar lays out all of the facts that you need to understand about Peak Oil and all of the implications of it. Starting with what is Peak Oil he then moves to to discuss why other forms of oil extraction will not work and then proceeds to do the same thing with alternative energys. Finally he paints a very grim picture of a future defined by resource wars, food riots and a mass die off.

If you are introduced to PO through this book then it will probably scare the crap out of you. Savinar paints the most bleakest picture possible. Even going so far as to say that we should develop a sense of humour because we are all going to die anyway.

However his style of writing is easy to read as he starts each section with a question relating to PO and then answers it, which gives the reader easy access to information.

Very pessimistic but also very informative. Rating=***

[basketballjones]

I had almost the same experience. Matt's lifeaftertheoilcrash website is how i found out about PO. I remember sitting there almost dumbfounded after fully comprehending it's consequences. The realisation that oil powers every single aspect of our society.

It's a great site, but i don't think i agree if it will be quite the hard crash scenario Matt paints.

[vic]

Matt Savinar really deserves appreciation to bring the issue of oil depletion to so many of us including me. Though he pessimistically paints the scenario, anything better is possible only by looking at the worst scenario.
pre-informed is pre-armed.