MacG wrote:....There is a crowd of economic "dissidents" out there ... and they claim (with god backing)
MicroHydro wrote:Not possible. Here is a more likely scenario:
1) Global economy and equity markets drop (agree with that)
2) Oil consumption drops (agree with that)
3) OPEC and other producers breathe a sigh of relief for the opportunity to rest their over stressed fields and top off their emptying tank farms. Agressive production cuts keep Dubai oil above the $50 target. There has been a paradigm shift. Fifty dollar oil is seen not as a problem but as a solution. Recall that oil producers need a stable price of $50+ to justify spending billions on new projects. Any short term market panics will be quickly terminated by production cuts.
cat wrote:It seems to me that most economists, these guys included, do not take the fact that oil is a finite resource into consideration. They assume we will have oil forever, or at least until the forseeable future. They probably have never been educated on the subject and are so focused in their own narrow expertise that it doesn't occur to them to look at the bigger picture. Economics does get very complicated and is about as perdictable as the weather. It is probably most useful to gather what information they do offer and make your own conclusions based on your knowledge of "peak oil". It can be frustrating though, I was reading an interview with three intelligent economists in Harper's the other day, and they saw the most pressing economic problem as Social Security, not one mention of energy.
aahala wrote:I noticed the article used the word "could" seven times, once with
the bullish $105 price and the others with the bearish prediction.
This reminds me, "I COULD win the lottery this week."
Since that statement does not violate a physical law, or internal inconsistency then the statement COULD be true.
jimmydean wrote:I think he is hedging on some form of global economic slowdown coupled with a continued strong demand in the U.S. for more fuel efficient vehicles. Given Bush's proposed $4K subsidy for buying hybrid type vehicles it wouldn't be that far fetched than over the next 5 years U.S. demand actually goes down by 5M bbl/day or more.
clv101 wrote:I think it's very likely that today's high prices could cause enough demand destruction to depress oil prices significantly. This isn't a 'good thing', it's how peak oil could be expressed - as an economic disaster first and foremost with the underlying energy disaster going virtually unseen.
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