[careinke]

BTC market cap is #10 when compared to all countries M1 assets, jumping over Canada and Australia yesterday.


Peace

[careinke]

Hello All,

There were a lot of good presentations going on at "Bitcoin Atlantis" in Madeira Portugal last week. Most of the presentations were from very successful BTC maximalist's who are not that interested in Shitcoins. I found the one I brought you today very educational. Jack Mallers' presentation is basically explaining how Bitcoin is the Atomic Clock for the Internet. It's a pretty down to earth, fun 30 minute watch.


Jack Mallers' Passionate Talk at Bitcoin Atlantis 2024 in Madeira:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMHT9irdF2A

I highly recommend watching it. If you do, you will know more about BTC than about 90% of the world population. If you don't that's OK, soon everyone will be aware of BTC, and this link will still be here for you. It's a great starter for going down the rabbit hole.

Full Disclosure, Solana (SOL), that Jack completely trashes is my second largest holding after Bitcoin. But that's another conversation.

Peace

[theluckycountry]

BTC market cap is #10 when compared to all countries M1 assets, jumping over Canada and Australia yesterday.

You compare these bitcoins to M1 as though they are being held and used by individuals, but we know the Whales control the market. Bitcoin's meteoric rise in the last month mirrors that of the Nvidia company, which for a single company has a market cap twice that of all bitcoin. Now that Nvidia has begun to fall, so has bitcoin. Coincidence? Hardly, BC always tracks techie bubbles, it's the only thing you can be sure of. Did the approval of the ETFs play a roll in the recent run-up? Who knows. But with BC collapsing $4000 in a single day it's clear the whales have made their profits off this cycle. EDIT: Did I say $4000, nope, $5000 down and still dropping.

Peter Schiff: Bitcoin Lives And Dies By ETFs

On this year’s Leap Day, Peter analyzed another round of inflation data and the economic factors at play in the quickly approaching 2024 general election. Bitcoin also surged back above $60,000 after the SEC approved bitcoin ETFs.

Peter thinks Bitcoin’s revival this week is the last gasp of breath before the asset blows up completely:

“These ETFs are really the tail that is wagging the Bitcoin dog. I think it’s all now about the ETFs, and of course, Bitcoin lives by the ETFs, it’s going to die by the ETFs and [it’s] probably not going to be a very long life.” Investors eagerly buying into these ETFs may have a tough time moving back into gold if the yellow metal continues to climb in price:

“It’s going to be like a…roach motel. The money checks in. It doesn’t check out. It goes to money heaven because it’s one thing to put money into a Bitcoin ETF. It’s going to be a whole other thing to get it back out.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/peter ... -dies-etfs

So if you bought in during the last bubble, and didn't have to sell low because you couldn't make the interest payments on the loan, then you have broken even, or are perhaps up 50~100%. Not bad, if you can take that money off the table. Alas most players like to hodl and will be eyeing 1 million dollar BC.

BC is an exciting way to play with your life savings, it's rises are legendary, it's collapses heartbreaking. But at the end of the day life savings are for spending in retirement and for that the vast majority of people choose conventional investments that rise over time and have a proven track record of stability. BC hodlers tend to think that everyone is watching it, that one day everyone will want it, but that is simply not the case. vegans suffer from the same delusion, they think they are a big majority and that one day everyone will be vegan. They fall into this mindset because they tend to associate together and on a planet of 7 Billion consumers it's inevitable they will know a disproportionate number that share their infatuation.

The peoples money, free of banking and government interference? With it's acceptance into ETFs BC is now firmly part of the swamp.

[theluckycountry]

[careinke]

Hi Lucky! I knew last night you would show up today,

Actually, it was over a $10K swing from $69.3K to $59.2K so far today. If it stayed there, it would bring us all the way back to 6 days ago. This was expected by everyone who has been around for a while. Will you be back in a couple of days when we are back at new all-time highs? How about at the end of April, when we are flirting with $100K? Watch and learn.

Today recked a lot of margin, traders both longs and shorts, all within a few hours. This is why I no longer trade crypto on margin. Of course, this is all manipulated by the new institutional money coming into the market by the billions per week in the US alone. Currently, the miners are producing 900BTC per day and the ETF's are buying 9,000BTC a day. Oh, and the miners are only selling about 80% of what they produce.

Wow your Gold made a 3X in 15 years, while BTC made a 3,150X in those same 15 years. I only started BTC 10 years ago so my multiplier is smaller, only a 157.5X so far today. Your turtle is going backwards especially when the $AUD has dropped from par against the $US to only .65% of 1USD today. Then again, we haven't even looked at inflation which makes it even worse. Just keep listening to Shift, you will be fine.

I just checked, BTC is over 100,000 $AUD. You guys broke all-time BTC highs a few days ago!!

While I have your attention, some Aussies are reporting their banks are limiting crypto purchases by individuals to 10,000$AUD/Month I wonder if that is widespread? If so you will never be able to own a whole bitcoin. Sorry for you, of course there are other ways to get BTC.

Peace

[theluckycountry]

This was expected by everyone who has been around for a while. Will you be back in a couple of days when we are back at new all-time highs? How about at the end of April, when we are flirting with $100K?

While I have your attention, some Aussies are reporting their banks are limiting crypto purchases by individuals to 10,000$AUD/Month I wonder if that is widespread?

So near 100k by the end of April, is that a firm prediction from you?

I don't know about bitcoin down here, the only investor I have ever met, and if you meet one you know because they can't not talk about it, was a coin dealer in the city. He had three I believe, bought @au$16k or so from memory. He told me an interesting story from back in the last big run up.

Across the road from him is the premier bullion house, Ainslie, where the wealthier buyers go to buy in bulk. They buy there and sometimes take it around the corner to a secure storage facility. He told me that a percentage were redeeming their bullion, taking it back to Ainslie, selling it, then going into a back room to buy crypto that went onto a secure pen-drive (if there is such a thing) Then taking the drive back to the secure storage.

From his timeline most of this was happening north of $40k and then the investors had to go home and watch their asset plunge in price for the next year or so. Greed! It's what brings most people undone. Chasing ever higher gains until one day they find their money in an unsecured asset and *poof* it's gone. What you and all other coiners believe is that while these wild swings occur over a 3 or 4 year period, the coin will always achieve a higher base price over time. In the first collapse that was around $300, then the next, $7000, in the last collapse it was around $21k.

I assume then that you expect the next collapse will leave the coins at $60k or more. Well there is no underlying fundamental as to why that should be. There isn't a Billion young women demanding them for jewellery or an electronics industry demanding them for coatings on delicate components is there. There are just a couple of hundred million people, dominated by a couple of dozen Whales, holding them in the hope of making enough to by Lambo. It's a pure Greed investment, money for nothing, like a ponzi where you make money by selling the idea, and a coin or two, to someone else that wants to get rich too.

It's a truism that nothing goes straight up, and the pullback you have had would be considered normal in any market, but the fundamental claimed by coiners, namely scarcity, is not what I see driving this market at all, nor is it all the broken promises that lured people in the first place. To me it's an exuberance play, a follow the tech money play, and without the tech stocks booming (currently AI stocks) It will fall in a heap just as it did in 2022 when TSLA and META and all the other tech stocks collapsed back then.

It is the strongest correlation it has, a firm linkage to the stockmarket (Nasdaq) Anyone who denies this simply can't read a chart.

[careinke]

Lucky,

Yea I'm predicting around 100K USD by the end of April. Also, I edited my post, the miners are making 900 BTC a day not 90.

Here is an Ausie Bit Coiner I watch, mostly because of you.

https://www.youtube.com/@gdaybitcoin

He is pretty entertaining. Enjoy.

Peace

[careinke]

An update on the current BRICS status, from a Russian perspective. She is WAAAYYY better looking than Shiff.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3N77IQojX8

Presently most of the trades Russia is making in its trades are using rubles and E-wan. they are working on a block chain that avoids politics and can trade in local currencies. Russia claims it was not them who restricted use of the Swift system, but the U.S.

I think BTC would be the perfect nonpolitical Block Chain.

Peace

[careinke]

I'd forgotten about this thread.

Go back and read it from the beginning. Six String could have bought BTC for $8.00 a coin, he mentioned throwing $500.00 at it. lets see if he had done that and held it he would now have 62.5 BTC, and it would be worth $4,195,125.00 soon to be over $6.2 Million.

I don't show up until page 2, but my prediction of a country adopting Cryptocurrency within 10 years certainly came true.

Some people are slow learners. Take heart, it's still very early, and you are still welcome.

Peace

[mousepad]

Go back and read it from the beginning. Six String could have bought BTC for $8.00 a coin, he mentioned throwing $500.00 at it. lets see if he had done that and held it he would now have 62.5 BTC, and it would be worth $4,195,125.00 soon to be over $6.2 Million.

Does that mean if we only all bought btc we'd all be rich and wouldn't have to work anymore? But who then work if nobody had to work anymore? It's mystery.
Grown men fall for this stuff. Truly a mystery.

El Salvador adopted bitcoin. What does that mean? Can I go to a salvadorian coffee shop and buy a coffee using bitcoin?
A bit coin transaction costs $8 according to this https://ycharts.com/indicators/bitcoin_ ... action_fee
Does that mean I have to pay $8.50 for a $0.50 coffee in el salvador?

One single bit coin transaction can consume 1.2MWh of energy.

It's a mystery that grown men fall for this stuff. It's a mystery that in a resource constrained world some men think spending 1MWh of energy is acceptable for simply buying coffee.

[careinke]

Go back and read it from the beginning. Six String could have bought BTC for $8.00 a coin, he mentioned throwing $500.00 at it. lets see if he had done that and held it he would now have 62.5 BTC, and it would be worth $4,195,125.00 soon to be over $6.2 Million.

Does that mean if we only all bought btc we'd all be rich and wouldn't have to work anymore? Yes But who then work if nobody had to work anymore? Everyone on this board, since no one bought any. It's mystery.
Grown men fall for this stuff. Truly a mystery. Mostly rich smart people, but if you have an SMS phone there are no barriers.

El Salvador adopted bitcoin. What does that mean? It means the U.S. dollar and BTC are their national currencies.Can I go to a salvadorian coffee shop and buy a coffee using bitcoin? Yes
A bit coin transaction costs $8 according to this https://ycharts.com/indicators/bitcoin_ ... action_fee
Does that mean I have to pay $8.50 for a $0.50 coffee in el salvador? No. Most people using BTC this way have a Protocall called Lightning in their wallet which completes the transaction in less than a second and costs less than a cent.

One single bit coin transaction can consume 1.2MWh of energy. $67,000.00 will buy a lot of coffee. Most of BTC is produced from cheaper sources that are environmentally sound like solar, wind, hydro, orphaned energy, nuclear power etc, etc. In El Salvidor their power source will soon be volcanos. If you calculated an ESG score for BTC it would be very low.


It's a mystery that grown men fall for this stuff. It's a mystery that in a resource constrained world some men think spending 1MWh of energy is acceptable for simply buying coffee. Enjoy being poor.

Peace

[mousepad]

Most people using BTC this way have a Protocall called Lightning

https://github.com/davidshares/Lightning-Network

Unfortunately, the Lightning Network has been a disappointment since its inception in 2015. It has been an utter failure and has not delivered, and instead has led to centralization and reliance on custodial services and third-party companies. We have decided to stop following the development of the Lightning Network in this repository, as we believe it is a waste of time and resources.

Crazy. What an utter crap this crypto is. A few fanbois ripping each other off in a ponzi scheme. Crazy. Grown men falling for this stuff. The same grown men that are allowed to vote. No wonder this society goes down the shit drain.

[careinke]

People that use fiat currency have a name...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5if2hthPCs

we call them poor.

Peace

[theluckycountry]

You really need to post this dribble over on reddit inki, it so patently fan boi. I just checked the price chart of BC, it's up 30 or 50% from around the time everyone was buying into it back in the last bubble top of 2021. The price gains of Nvidia over that timeframe eclipse it by miles. Everyone who bought bitcoin likes to brag they got in with mountains of coins when they were a hundred dollars but we all know that's bullshit because if they had they'd be off on a private island now.

I wouldn't be popping any champagne corks until it had achieved 1000% over it's last top myself. Until then it's just a risky asset with a half decent upside. Nvidia is up from $3 back early last decade to $900 today, another bubble for sure but at least a company with a proven product and huge sales volume. It's based on real world fundamentals too, not the delusional prophesies of a deranged businessman.

Rational Businessman



Insane one, driven to the edge by years of disappointment and loss

[careinke]

You really need to post this dribble over on reddit inki, it so patently fan boi. I just checked the price chart of BC, it's up 30 or 50% from around the time everyone was buying into it back in the last bubble top of 2021. The price gains of Nvidia over that timeframe eclipse it by miles. Everyone who bought bitcoin likes to brag they got in with mountains of coins when they were a hundred dollars but we all know that's bullshit because if they had they'd be off on a private island now.

I wouldn't be popping any champagne corks until it had achieved 1000% over it's last top myself. Until then it's just a risky asset with a half decent upside. Nvidia is up from $3 back early last decade to $900 today, another bubble for sure but at least a company with a proven product and huge sales volume. It's based on real world fundamentals too, not the delusional prophesies of a deranged businessman.

Rational Businessman



Insane one, driven to the edge by years of disappointment and loss

Nvida is an "Alpha" high risk high reward stock. If I still traded on the stock market, I would own some. That said, there are other companies working on their own chip stacks. No wonder Plant is getting ulcers.

You obviously still don't understand BTC or its cycles, so your points are .... well pointless.

Saylor was an anti Bitcoiner at first but after delving deeper, he realized BTC fit into his company. Right about the time you became a member of P.O., Saylor became a BTC Maximalist. His timing was awful, he started buying large quantities of BTC at last cycles peak. Forbs lists his Net worth at $5.1 billion.

https://www.forbes.com/profile/michael-saylor/?sh=7f382eb67e0f

Of course he had failures along the way, do you know any self-made billionaires who haven't?

I certainly did not buy a bunch of BTC when I first bought BTC in May 14, 2014 at a price of $400.00, I just bought $100.00 worth. I did it to play with it, and sent $5 worth to some of my friends and relatives so they could check it out. My last trade in 2014 was in September. Then I left it alone (for personal reasons) until 2017 when I bought my first ETH. Since then, I've been pretty active.

So how's that gold doing? Over the last 10 weeks the price has been rising, but for some reason the market cap is falling. Peter shiftless is blaming it on retail investors who are selling gold to buy BTC. He may have a point, over the past 10 weeks BTCs market cap has gone from 30% of golds to 60% today. I expect it to pass gold during the next cycle in 2028, maybe sooner if Shiftless's call for a "Greater Depression" this year or next.

Finally, you don't get to tell me where I can post.

Peace

[mousepad]

Crypto in its current form is worse than gambling.
With gambling, unless it's illegally rigged, you know your expected value will be say $0.90 for every $1 you put in.

However, in return, there is a possibility that you may have a one in million chance of getting back $100 for the $1 you put in.

Crypto, on the other hand, is a Ponzi scheme. It has no internal value and the current owners of crypto are paid entirely through the money brought in by the future owners of crypto.

Now, to be completely fair, I don't think the majority of crypto backers perceive it as a Ponzi scheme. There were many people working in the space (maybe even the overwhelming majority, although that's unlikely to be true anymore), who actually believed that Bitcoin had real value because it could become a real currency. Similarly, there are people who actually believe that Smart Contracts, and NFTs are actual useful technologies.

The problem, however, is that

(a) none of those technologies have panned out, possibly because blockchain simply does not solve the problems people actually face...it solves the problem of "What if the entity who owns the database we are recording our transactions in is unreliable". In practice, this does not seem to be a major problem at all, and further, blockchain appears to be a terrible way to solve this problem.

(b) Even if the technologies are useful, the limited tokens and the fact that they are largely hoarded by early adopters, simply serves to enrich those early adopters, which drastically reduces the utility of any crypto based technologies for future users, the ones who are actually using the technology. Crypto tokens are an implicit tax on technology. It would be like if Google was invented, but to use Google you necessarily had to pay $0.10 every search, but that cost is ridiculously dynamic, often jumping up to $1/search as well. Google would never take off and it would impose an insane tax on everyone else, and society as a whole.

The latter is why crypto in its current form isn't just a successful/unsuccessful tech, its an actively society damaging technology.

[theluckycountry]

Nvida is an "Alpha" high risk high reward stock. If I still traded on the stock market, I would own some. That said, there are other companies working on their own chip stacks. No wonder Plant is getting ulcers.

If you had traded BC you could have made $8000 a coin in the past three days, why not jump on the pump and dump cycle with the big players?

You obviously still don't understand BTC or its cycles, so your points are .... well pointless.

No I don't, I'm a bit like Warren Buffett in that respect, he never touched the IT bubble because he said he didn't understand it.

Saylor was an anti Bitcoiner at first but after delving deeper, he realized BTC fit into his company. Right about the time you became a member of P.O., Saylor became a BTC Maximalist. His timing was awful

Which is all we need to say about him and his investing acumen. i.e. He was wrong from the outset.

So how's that gold doing? Over the last 10 weeks the price has been rising, but for some reason the market cap is falling.Peace

Market cap? Are you talking about miners? I don't play the stock market, I just buy the metals. Eventually I said enough is enough but then when it was depressed for a season I'd get the urge and go out and buy some more. The last round, 2 years ago, was about 40kg of silver and 15 ounces of Gold. The gold was painful, it was $2500 au an ounce then, and probably like your BT you wonder for a while if it will ever go up, and, in my case, cover the dealer fees of around 6%. It was more than I had ever spent before but I'd sold another asset and didn't want to leave it all as cash in the bank. I don't trust banks, I think we are alike in that.

I actually spent more on silver but for some reason, probably the physical size of it all, I didn't feel that temporary remorse I did with the Gold. Probably that and the fact the Gold: Silver ratio is way out of historical norms, making Silver very cheap. It's cheaper now then the $50 peak in 1980. Of course it will never be used as a monetary metal again but as a hi-tech metal it's indispensable. I really wish the EV revolution had been viable you know, that and the solar and wind would have put immense pressure on silver, but I have to bow to reality that they were all just new ways to burn oil and doomed from the outset.

[theluckycountry]

The problem, however, is that

(a) none of those technologies have panned out, possibly because blockchain simply does not solve the problems people actually face...it solves the problem of "What if the entity who owns the database we are recording our transactions in is unreliable". In practice, this does not seem to be a major problem at all, and further, blockchain appears to be a terrible way to solve this problem.

Yes, quite. Many coiners talk about their super secure flash drives but the vast majority keep the crypto on exchanges, which are fraught with corruption.

(b) Even if the technologies are useful, the limited tokens and the fact that they are largely hoarded by early adopters, simply serves to enrich those early adopters, which drastically reduces the utility of any crypto based technologies for future users, the ones who are actually using the technology.

The latter is why crypto in its current form isn't just a successful/unsuccessful tech, its an actively society damaging technology.

As far as I can see, no one is using the technology outside of trading networks. Saylor has ranted for ages, becoming more shrill with every passing day, that BC will revolutionize the WORLD! But how if no one actually uses it

Now we see the halving, in profit for the miners. How does the gigantic electricity consumption figure into that? The more it grows, the more it's traded between hoarders the greater the electricity cost. This is a taboo subject with BCoiners.



2024

A federal judge in Texas has granted a temporary order blocking the new requirements that would ascertain the energy use of the crypto miners, stating that the industry had shown it would suffer “irreparable injury” if it was made to comply.

The US Department of Energy had launched an “emergency” initiative last month aimed at surveying the energy use of mining operations, which typically use vast amounts of computing power to solve various mathematical puzzles to add new tokens to an online network known as a blockchain, allowing the mining of currency such as bitcoin.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... ricity-use

Globally, crypto miners are thought to soak up as much as 1% of all electricity demand, which is the same as the entire country of Australia, with bitcoin mining’s energy use doubling just last year.

The longer BT is traded back and forth the longer gets the chains and computing times and the more electricity is required. Now tell me that's sustainable in the decades to come.

[mousepad]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/881 ... ison-visa/

It's 700kWh for 1 single bitcoin transaction vs 0.00148kWh for 1 visa transaction.

Hahaha. I'm telling you. There are grown men that not only think this is a good idea, but also that everybody will get rich quick if they only bought bitcoin. That's why I have little hope in humanity. The stupidity is endemic.

I have 7kW of solar panels that power my whole house. It would take them 100 hours to generate the power needed for a single bitcoin transaction.

[theluckycountry]

That's why I have little hope in humanity. The stupidity is endemic.

Amazing isn't it. If the greenies got onto this enmass they would be screaming bloody murder, and rightfully so! It's a lavish waste of the planet's resources. But turds like ‘Rich Dad’ R. Kiyosaki urges fighting back against ‘woke greenies’ by buying Bitcoin. Amid his repeated warnings of an upcoming depression, renowned investor and author of the best-selling personal finance book ‘Rich Dad Poor Dad’ Robert Kiyosaki has shared his view that higher gas prices would contribute to the crisis, as he advised going electric and buying Bitcoin (BTC). The prick won't even admit that oil and coal are the basis of the entire EV industry. He just promotes whatever is cool at the time.

The Skull of Satoshi


He writes one book telling people what they want to hear, based on a the lie that he had two dads, goes on Oprah and now is a Sage with a following of devoted disciples. Anyone who the media loves is obviously the enemy of the people, that's just common sense now.

Poster-1
I liked the stuff said in rich dad poor dad well enough though that i quickly start watching his radio shows and eventually got pulled into attending this "strategy session" on the "rich dad world" website (again, can't beleive I fell for something this stupid... literally shameful..) that ended up being emotional and psychological manipulation to get you to buy his course on something I didnt need, but became convinced I absolutely needed and would change my life. Given how my life is currently going, I was the exact victim they were looking for, since I desperately needed something to change my life. The speaker kept saying "for only 99$!" but it turned out to have in small print on the invoice "6 monthly payments of 99$" that i must have missed.

It had a money back guarantee for a month, but it conveniently took a month to actually get any answer from customer service and they played dumb; they wont even cancel the 99$ payments over the next 5 months... The "course" i was sold is absolutely worthless.

Poster-2
He is scum. Everything he says is super vague with the promise that the next purchase from him will get you to the real, solid advice. But it never comes. Just more “invest in assets” and “think like a rich person” and “when you have lots of apartment buildings like me it’s really easy”. The closest I’ve heard him come to actionable advice for someone who isn’t rich is “buy a silver coin for $50”. Right…

https://www.reddit.com/r/povertyfinance ... _rich_dad/