JJ wrote:told my boss the Baltic dry index had taken a nosedive. He said "Oh yeah? Here, put out these cherries. Just got an email saying we got a container ship full of them from Chile. Price went down a dollar (3.99 a pound). Yet again I've been proven a fool.
MonteQuest wrote:I do. Get away with statements like this:
"Not saying it's not important, but I'm not sure it's as important an indication as he seems to think it is."
Dry bulk posts more gains
16 Dec 2008
Hot on the heels of the upward trend established throughout last week, the dry bulk market continued rising on Monday, breaking the 800-point ground, as the Baltic Dry Index closed at 803 points, up by 39 points. Again, leading the pack was the Capesize sector, which shot up by another 123 points or 10 percent, to end at 1454 points, while the Panamax index managed to turn to positive for the first time in more than two weeks. Panamaxes closed at 450 points, up by 10 points. In its morning note, Dahlman Rose said that the Capesize market continued to outperform smaller ships....
Of course, despite the positive trend highlighted during these past few days, dry bulk shipping companies aren’t yet in the clear. On the contrary, they keep facing serious challenges. “Rates have not achieved a level to add support to vessel values, and loan/value covenants likely remain in jeopardy” said Dahlman. BRS noted that “the China Metallurgical Mines Association last week confirmed that China’s domestically produced and imported ore reached 632m tonnes between January and September – still 64m tonnes more than the country’s steel sector required.
The big question is if the capesize sector will continue its resilience.
Hellenic Shipping News
TSA: Container cargo may drop 8% by year-end as global trade slows
By David Hannon -- Purchasing, 12/11/2008
Just how much has demand for goods shipping in containers from Asia decreased this year? According to the Transpacific Stabilization Agreement, which represents 15 ocean carriers in the Pacific, Asia to U.S. container cargos dropped 6.9% in the first half of 2008 and could end the year down as much as 8% from last year.
And officials from TSA are not predicting a rebound in cargo demand until the second half of 2009. "Clearly we're in a slowdown right now, but just as clearly, the current freezing up of the global credit system is unsustainable," said TSA chairman Ronald Widdows in a statement. "We expect to see an orderly de-leveraging of the financial markets over the next year that will begin to restore confidence with year-on-year cargo demand growth resuming in late 2009."
In a recent report, Philip Damas, director of research at Drewry's ship consultancy in London, said that the growth of container trade is at its lowest level ever from Asia to the U.S. this year, and was at a 15-year low from Asia to Europe. "As a result of the financial crisis we are seeing consumers buying less clothes and furniture and we've even got the start of bankruptcies for furniture importers," he said.
Data from HIS Global Insights says the number of shipping containers entering the U.S. through its top 10 container ports between January and September was 7.2% lower than it was during the year-earlier period.LINK
Lower demand, rates expected for container shipping in 2009
Global trade slump will slow transpacific shipments
By Dave Hannon -- Purchasing, 12/11/2008 1:55:00 PM
With China’s exports falling surprisingly 2.2% in November and overall global trade expected to remain slow for at least the short-term most experts are predicting container freight volumes—and rates—to be down in 2009. The World Bank this week said global trade is set to fall by 2.1% in 2009, marking the first decline since 1982, and much of the slump is going to be felt in the transpacific trade lanes.
According to the most recent Purchasingdata.com survey, only 9% of buyers increased sourcing from overseas suppliers in December. “Global demand for Chinese products is vanishing,” said Gene Ma, an economist at China Economic Monitor, a Beijing consultancy, in a recent Reuters report. "Secondly, the credit freeze in importing countries has made it hard for Chinese exporters to sell abroad."LINK
Maersk cuts trans-Pacific rates
December 15, 2008
Maersk Lines has slashed container freight rates from Asia to the U.S. West Coast by nearly a quarter as the American economy slows, according to reports from Hong Kong.
“Container shipping rates have come down substantially as demand is very weak and exporters are in deep water,” said Sunny Ho, executive director of Hong Kong Shippers Council.
Container freight rates for Asia to the United States have fallen to as low as $1,300 a box, he said, without naming specific shipping firms.
Maersk Line declined to comment on rate cuts, but did say earlier this month that it is “striving to keep its market share in the trans-Pacific routes.”
“To create a sustainable environment, rates must go up,” said Mary Ann Kotlarich, a spokeswoman for Maersk Line in the U.S.
Sources told Reuters that Maersk had cut freight rates to the West Coast to $1,300 per 40-foot equivalent unit, from $1,700.
Cosco Container Lines, the Hong Kong-listed arm of China’s largest shipping conglomerate, has followed with cuts, as slowing trade growth due to weak demand from the United States and Europe continues to pressure shipping rates, a source told Reuters.
He would not specify the amount of the cut.
Analysts expected other regional container line operators, many of which are operating at losses, to follow.
Credit Suisse said it did not see the prospect of another up-cycle yet, and shipping lines were cutting back on capacity to avoid further losses.
Maersk, the world's top container ship operator, said it was taking eight 6,500-TEU ships out of service until May or June 2009 due to poor market conditions.
Container shipping rates from Asia to Europe have also fallen by about two-thirds to more than $200 per TEU, Ho said.
“We have some cases where shipping firms are willing to move goods for a zero freight rate and exporters are only responsible for bunker (fuel) and terminal handling charges,” he said.
Hong Kong exporters reported a 30 percent year-on-year drop on orders for the peak season next year, Ho said. LINK
smallpoxgirl wrote:Dude what are you in kindergarden? You going to beat me up now and take my lunch money?MonteQuest wrote:I do. Get away with statements like this:"Not saying it's not important, but I'm not sure it's as important an indication as he seems to think it is."
yesplease wrote:By March of what year?manu wrote:Expect rioting in almost every city in the U.S. and Euro by March.
Remember you can't eat nuts and bolts or computor chips.
Ya willing to bet on that?manu wrote:March 2009.
Professor Membrane wrote: Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Last Updated: 3:39PM GMT 14 Jan 2009
Freight rates for containers shipped from Asia to Europe have fallen to zero for the first time since records began, underscoring the dramatic collapse in trade since the world economy buckled in October.
The cost of shipping goods from Asia to Europe has tumbled. "They have already hit zero," said Charles de Trenck, a broker at Transport Trackers in Hong Kong. "We have seen trade activity fall off a cliff. Asia-Europe is an unmit igated disaster."
Shipping journal Lloyd's List said brokers in Singapore are now waiving fees for containers travelling from South China, charging only for the minimal "bunker" costs. Container fees from North Asia have dropped $200, taking them below operating cost.
Industry sources said they have never seen rates fall so low. "This is a whole new ball game," said one trader. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) which measures freight rates for bulk commodities such as iron ore and grains crashed several months ago, falling 96pc. The BDI – though a useful early-warning index – is highly volatile and exaggerates apparent ups and downs in trade. However, the latest phase of the shipping crisis is different. It has spread to core trade of finished industrial goods, the lifeblood of the world economy.
Trade data from Asia's export tigers has been disastrous over recent weeks, reflecting the collapse in US, UK and European markets. Korea's exports fell 30pc in January compared to a year earlier. Exports have slumped 42pc in Taiwan and 27pc in Japan, according to the most recent monthly data. Even China has now started to see an outright contraction in shipments, led by steel, electronics and textiles. A report by ING yesterday said shipping activity at US ports has suddenly dived. Outbound traffic from Long Beach and Los Angeles, America's two top ports, has fallen by 18pc year-on-year, a far more serious decline than anything seen in recent recessions.
"This is no regular cycle slowdown, but a complete collapse in foreign demand," said Lindsay Coburn, ING's trade consultant. Idle ships are now stretched in rows outside Singapore's harbour, creating an eerie silhouette like a vast naval fleet at anchor. Shipping experts note the number of vessels moving around seem unusually high in the water, indicating low cargoes.
It became difficult for the shippers to obtain routine letters of credit at the height of financial crisis over the autumn, causing goods to pile up at ports even though there was a willing buyer at the other end. Analysts say this problem has been resolved, but the shipping industry has since been swamped by the global trade contraction. The World Bank caused shockwaves with a warning last month that global trade may decline this year for the first time since the Second World War. This appears increasingly certain with each new batch of data.
Mr de Trenck predicts Asian trade to the US will fall 7pc this year. To Europe he estimates a drop of 9pc – possibly 12pc. Trade flows grow 8pc in an average year. He said it was "illogical" for shippers to offer zero rates, but they do whatever they can to survive in a highly cyclical market. Offering slots for free is akin to an airline giving away spare seats for nothing in the hope of making something from meals and fees.
LINK
linkIdling ships clog up Singapore shores
Singapore claims to be the busiest port in the world. About 130,000 ships arrive there each year. But these days, the problem is many of those vessels are not putting back out to sea. The usual stay for a cargo carrier is just ten days. That is enough time to offload one set of cargo and take on another load, re-fuel and re-stock supplies.
But, of the 220 container ships arriving in Singapore this year, - excluding the tugs, yachts and bunkering vessels which are permanent port residents - more than half have stayed longer than that. Another 44 cargo ships have been in port for more than six months
IslandCrow wrote:Idling ships clog up Singapore shores
Singapore claims to be the busiest port in the world. About 130,000 ships arrive there each year. But these days, the problem is many of those vessels are not putting back out to sea.
The usual stay for a cargo carrier is just ten days. That is enough time to offload one set of cargo and take on another load, re-fuel and re-stock supplies. But, of the 220 container ships arriving in Singapore this year, - excluding the tugs, yachts and bunkering vessels which are permanent port residents - more than half have stayed longer than that.
Another 44 cargo ships have been in port for more than six months
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8142838.stmI realise that not running ships will not directly save much energy, but I wonder what the total effect, all down the chain of supply to the shop to the home, on energy consumption all these idle ships represent.
The global economic crisis is wreaking havoc on shipping: Demand and prices have collapsed and ports are filling up with fleets of empty freighters. The crisis has fueled cut-throat competition and not all companies will survive. Germany's Hapag-Lloyd alone needs 1.75 billion euros to stay afloat.
The Andromeda towers almost 40 meters (131 feet) above Hamburg's Burchard wharf, as countless feeder ships and container stacking vehicles bustle around it like insects around a bored elephant. Shipyard CMA CGN's new flagship container ship, one of the world's largest, boasts a 100,000 horsepower engine, can carry 11,400 containers, is 363 meters long and was delivered from South Korea only a few months ago -- at a price of $160 million (€111 million).
The Andromeda was built for an economic boom that never seemed to end, at a time when more and more containers, bigger ships and ever-growing port facilities were needed.
...
But now the global financial and economic crisis has stifled the boom in container shipping, and it has happened almost overnight. For the first time in its history, the industry has stopped growing and, in fact, is shrinking. In the first six months of this year alone, the shipping industry declined by close to 16 percent.
The new giant ships are now much too big for the cargos they transport by sea, and often they sail half-empty -- if at all. Billions are being spent to expand ports to handle a boom that no longer exists. Leading shipping line operators are on the verge of bankruptcy, as are shipping banks and charter shipping companies. The industry, once one of the biggest beneficiaries of globalization, now threatens to turn into one of its chief casualties.
"There has never been a crisis like this before," says Reinhard Lange, the CEO of Kühne + Nagel, the world's largest sea-freight forwarder. Shipping line operators alone are expected to suffer combined losses of $20 billion in 2009.
Drewry Shipping Consultants, the world's top consultant to the industry, warns: "The industry is looking at the edge of a deep abyss." And industry publication Lloyds List writes: "Container shipping was thrown into a full-scale panic."
smallpoxgirl wrote:Dude what are you in kindergarden? You going to beat me up now and take my lunch money?
IslandCrow wrote:I realise that not running ships will not directly save much energy, but I wonder what the total effect, all down the chain of supply to the shop to the home, on energy consumption all these idle ships represent.
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