[AlCzervik]

OK, I have been battling with this guy on another board about the severity of the peak oil situation. Someone on that board was smart enough to start a thread about how Bush should be focusing on energy problems instead of social security. Anyway, here is what my adversary says.


"Despite all of the "peak oil" posts in the last year there are more than enough proven reserves to fuel this planet for the rest of the century.
...


http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/fac ... os/xx.html

Oil - production: 75.34 million bbl/day (2001 est.)

Oil - consumption: 75.81 million bbl/day (2001 est.)

Oil - proved reserves: 1.025 trillion bbl (1 January 2002)

Natural gas - production: 2.578 trillion cu m (2001 est.)

Natural gas - consumption: 2.555 trillion cu m (2001 est.)

Natural gas - proved reserves: 161.2 trillion cu m (1 January 2002)

Ok, assuming that we hold consumption to 2001 levels and don't find anymore oil the oil would run out in 2035. However, the timeline below shows the fallacy of predicting that we're running out of oil.

Timeline

• 1857 -- Romania produces 2,000 barrels of oil, marking the beginning of the modern oil industry.

• 1859, Aug. 25 -- Edwin L. Drake strikes oil in Titusville, Pennsylvania

• 1862 -- First commercial oil production in Canada, also 1863 in Russia.

• 1862 -- Most widely used lamp fuel (camphene) taxed in US at aprox. $1 a gallon; kerosene taxed at 10 cent per gallon. (Kovarik, 1997)

• 1863 -- John D. Rockefeller starts the Excelsior Refinery in Cleveland, Ohio.

• 1879 -- US Geological Survey formed in part because of fear of oil shortages.

• 1882 -- Institute of Mining Engineers estimates 95 million barrels of oil remain. With 25 milliion barrels per year output, "Some day the cheque will come back indorsed no funds, and we are approaching that day very fast," Samuel Wrigley says. (Pratt, p. 124).

• 1901 -- Spindletop gusher in Texas floods US oil market.

• 1906 -- Fears of an oil shortage are confirmed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Representatives of the Detroit, Board of Commerce attended hearings in Washington and told a Senate hearing that car manufacturers worried "not so much [about] cost as ... supply."

• 1919, Scientific American notes that the auto industry could no longer ignore the fact that only 20 years worth of U.S. oil was left. "The burden falls upon the engine. It must adapt itself to less volatile fuel, and it must be made to burn the fuel with less waste.... Automotive engineers must turn their thoughts away from questions of speed and weight... and comfort and endurance, to avert what ... will turn out to be a calamity, seriously disorganizing an indispensable system of transportation."

• 1920 -- David White, chief geologist of USGS, estimates total oil remaining in the US at 6.7 billion barrels. "In making this estimate, which included both proved reserves and resources still remaining to be discovered, White conceded that it might well be in error by as much as 25 percent." (Pratt, p. 125. Emphasis added).

• 1925 -- US Commerce Dept. says that while U.S. oil production doubled between 1914 and 1921, it did not kept pace with fuel demand as the number of cars increased.

• 1928 -- US analyst Ludwell Denny in his book "We Fight for Oil" noted the domestic oil shortage and says international diplomacy had failed to secure any reliable foreign sources of oil for the United States. Fear of oil shortages would become the most important factor in international relations, even so great as to force the U.S. into war with Great Britain to secure access to oil in the Persian Gulf region, Denny said.

• 1926 -- Federal Oil Conservation Board estimates 4.5 billion barrels remain.

• 1930 -- Some 25 million American cars are on the road, up from 3 million in 1918.

• 1932 -- Federal Oil Conservation Board estimates 10 billion barrels of oil remain.

• 1944 -- Petroleum Administrator for War estimates 20 billion barrelsof oil remain.

• 1950 -- American Petroleum Institute says world oil reserves are at 100 billion barrels. (See Jean Laherre, Forecast of oil and gas supply)

• 1956 -- M.King Hubbard predicts peak in US oil production by 1970.

• 1966 - 1977 -- 19 billion barrels added to US reserves, most of which was from fields discovered before 1966. (As M.A. Adelman notes: "These fields were no gift of nature. They were a growth of knowledge, paid for by heavy investment.")

• 1973 -- Oil price spike; supply restrictions due to Midde Eastern politics.

• 1978 -- Petroleos de Venezuela announces estimated unconventional oil reserve figure for Orinoco heavy oil belt at between three and four trillion barrels. (More recent public estimates are in the one trillion range).

• 1979 -- Oil price spike; supply restrictions due to Midde Eastern politics.

• 1980 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 648 billion barrels

• 1993 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 999 billion barrels

• 2000 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 1016 billion barrels."

We know that consumption will increase, so his "what if" scenario presented in the post has problems off the bat. I think the major flaw in his "argument" is that he just doesn't understand the concept of the bell curve and that oil becomes scare, difficult to discover/produce, and extremely expensive on the downslope. Also, he seems to be relying on the old boy who cried wolf arguments. But, what else is wrong with his post? Are there problems with his reserve numbers? Please advise. TIA. Here is the thread:
http://www.spartantailgate.com/forums/s ... 202&page=1

[MikeB]

Notice how misleading this is:

1956 -- M.King Hubbard predicts peak in US oil production by 1970.

• 1966 - 1977 -- 19 billion barrels added to US reserves, most of which was from fields discovered before 1966. (As M.A. Adelman notes: "These fields were no gift of nature. They were a growth of knowledge, paid for by heavy investment.")

Not only do they NOT acknowledge that Hubbert's prediction was correct, they create the impression (by citing 19 Gb added) that he was wrong, and that things actually got better for the US.

Also, by showing reserve estimates growing

• 1980 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 648 billion barrels

• 1993 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 999 billion barrels

• 2000 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 1016 billion barrels."

they create the impression that this can go on indefinitely.

So do we call this a conspiracy? Ignorance? What?

[some_guy282]

• 1980 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 648 billion barrels

• 1993 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 999 billion barrels

• 2000 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 1016 billion barrels."

If he's talking about "proven" worldwide reserves, there's nothing proven about them. They're easy to discredit. OPEC started increasing their reserve numbers in the 80's because of the new rules, and more recently the Saudi's have been doubling and even tripling their "proven" reserves when people question their ability to increase production.

They never offer any proof.

[threadbear]

Asia Times is the BEST source of news out there. I got 13 hits for peak from searching the site. Suggest to this poster that he read these articles. This article contains information that is conveniently excluded from the information he provided you with.

From Asia Times:

But with oil breaking the US$50-a-barrel barrier in October, and amid other concerns, the peak oil crowd is grabbing more attention. One of their most startling claims is the following: six barrels of oil are now used for every new barrel discovered. Major oil finds - that is, more than 500 million barrels - peaked in 1964. In 2000, there were 13 such discoveries; in 2001, six; in 2002, two; and in 2003, zero - the first time that had ever happened.

The "peak" oil analysts also say oil-industry investment patterns seem to indicate that there isn't much oil left to discover.

In 2004, the Financial Times quoted a study by Scottish energy consultant Wood Mackenzie showing that major oil companies had invested $35 billion to develop existing oilfields in 1998. Five years later in 2003, the amount was $50 billion, a record, according to the Mackenzie study. During the same time period, spending on oil exploration dropped from $11 billion to $8 billion. Peak oil analysts contend that the oil companies were putting their money where the oil is - and that's not oil exploration.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Eco ... 6Dj04.html

[0mar]

Oil companies are losing money by exploring. They haven't been able to recoperate the expenses with new fields.

[TrueKaiser]

all i have to say is good luck.
from your post i can tell he is already adapt ad manipulating facts and figures to twist them to his side.
in other words expect a long hard drawn out war on this as he takes what ever you post and use it agenst you.
this is basicly what happened to me. i got heckled out of one fourm being called a idiot chicken little while in
another i was basicly called any bad term you can come up with from idiot to nazi.

[Ludi]

Unless you enjoy debate, don't bother to debat ehim. Just post links to several good informative sites and let people explore the issue on their own if they're interested. It's usually not worth the stress to try to debate someone. Generally you just end up getting flamed.

[spot5050]

I have been battling with this guy on another board...

What board?