But again why do you pick this fight? Is it some kind of holy grail quest for you that you need to deny every mention of warming in Peak Oil? What do you personally get out of starting these fights?
So who should I believe, a couple of dozen experienced explorers accounts or you?
You seem bent on finding some obscure bit of contradictory evidence. If it doesn’t buck 97% of established science it isn’t good enough for you to you
LNG Tanker “Christophe de Margerie” Completes Unique Voyage along the Northern Sea Route
PAO NOVATEK announced yesterday that the Arc7 ice-class LNG tanker ‘Christophe de Margerie’ of Sovcomflot successfully transited the Eastbound ice-covered part of the Northern Sea Route (‘NSR’) and reached the Bering Strait in only 12 days. The voyage across the NSR to the Bering Strait was 2,563 nautical miles long.
The voyage took place before the traditional start of the summer navigation season in average ice conditions, with the maximum ice thickness on the route reaching 1.3 meters. Eastbound transportation of LNG along the NSR is not normally performed in May as this represents one of the most difficult months for navigation.
The ‘Christophe de Margerie’ left the port of Sabetta on 18 May 2020, passed the Ob Bay and a part of the Kara Sea without ice-breaker assistance and then met with Atomflot’s nuclear icebreaker ‘Yamal’ (part of State Corporation ROSATOM), which escorted the tanker with ice navigation on the Еastern part of the NSR. The tanker will deliver an LNG cargo produced at Yamal LNG to China.
‘This unique tanker voyage is the result of NOVATEK’s detailed logistics solutions, exceptional ice performance of our Arctic LNG tanker fleet and the coordinated work of the entire team. We are grateful to the crews of the ‘Christophe de Margerie’ LNG tanker and the ‘Yamal’ nuclear icebreaker, who both demonstrated high professionalism in harsh Arctic conditions, representing the best traditions of the Russian school of navigation,’ noted Leonid Mikhelson, NOVATEK’s Chairman of the Management Board. ‘We are actively working to expand the eastbound navigation season for the NSR and looking forward to further development of State support for this trade route by increasing icebreaking capabilities as well as full-scale navigation and hydrographic assistance for shipping. This support allows us to significantly contribute to the annual cargo turnover along the Northern Sea Route by implementing our large-scale LNG projects to produce up to 70 million tons by 2030’.
PAO NOVATEK is the largest independent natural gas producer in Russia, and in 2017, entered the global LNG market by successfully launching the Yamal LNG project. Founded in 1994, the Company is engaged in the exploration, production, processing and marketing of natural gas and liquid hydrocarbons. Upstream activities of the Company’s subsidiaries and joint ventures are concentrated mainly in the prolific Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Region, which is the world’s largest natural gas producing area and accounts for approximately 80% of Russia’s natural gas production and approximately 15% of the world’s gas production. NOVATEK is a public joint stock company established under the laws of the Russian Federation. The Company’s shares are listed in Russia on Moscow Exchange (MOEX) and the London Stock Exchange (LSE) under the ticker symbol «NVTK».
Source: OAO Novatek
Novatek says LNG tanker completes ice-covered Northern Sea Route to east
MOSCOW, June 1 (Reuters) - Russian gas producer Novatek said on Monday that the Christophe de Margerie tanker carrying liquefied natural gas from its Yamal LNG plant has successfully completed the ice-covered eastbound Northern Sea Route.
The route across the Arctic Ocean is seen as strategic by Russia, which wants to use it to speed up deliveries of cargoes between Europe and Asia, supplanting the usual route via the Suez Canal. The tanker left the port of Sabetta on May 18 and then met with nuclear icebreaker ‘Yamal’, owned by a subsidiary of state nuclear corporation Rosatom, which escorted it along the route.
Novatek, which is Russia’s largest non-state natural gas producer, said the tanker bound for China reached the Bering Strait between Russia and the United States in 12 days, a voyage of 2,563 nautical miles.
“Eastbound transportation of LNG along the NSR is not normally performed in May, as this represents one of the most difficult months for navigation,” Novatek said.
Russian government plans envisage the Northern Sea Route, which trims 4,000 nautical miles off the southern alternative via Suez, being used to export 80 million tonnes of cargoes per year by 2024 to Europe and Asia.
Novatek Chief Executive Leonid Mikhelson said in a statement that state support for the development of the route would aid plans for the company’s large-scale LNG projects to produce up to 70 million tonnes by 2030. (Reporting by Vladimir Soldatkin; Editing by Jan Harvey)
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Russia Plans to Overhaul the Northern Sea Route. Here's a Brief Overview.
June 12, 2020
Anna Sindjajeva, SCB Contributor
The Northern Sea Route (NSR) refers to a multitude of passageways along the Russian Arctic connecting Europe and Asia. It is deemed a potential alternative to routes crossing the Suez or Panama canals, potentially reducing distances up to 45%. Shipping from Rotterdam to Tokyo via the Suez Canal, for instance, now takes about 30 days, while it is shortened to only 18 days via the NSR.
The NSR has been open to international shipping since 1991. However, a significant increase in cargo turnover was only recorded after 2012, when the ice melting accelerated in response to global warming, making the passage more accessible and safer. Thus, international shipping companies began to be interested in their commercial exploitation.
Despite the NSR reducing some distances significantly — meaning in principle faster and cheaper transportation — the volume of shipments remains low. Maersk and COSCO performed several test voyages, but thus far, they have not manifested an interest in regular usage. CMA CGM discarded the NSR altogether because of concerns on the environmental impact on the region.
However, volumes have been increasing significantly in the last years, from 19.7 million tons of cargo in 2018 to 31.5 million tons in 2019, and the trend is expected to continue. From January to April 2020, in fact, more than 10 million tons were transported through the NSR, 4.5% more than in the same period of 2019.
In 2019, 29 transit vessels used the NSR, completing 37 voyages. Most of the transits were performed by general cargo vessels, with COSCO having deployed the largest fleet (seven vessels). Overall, the vessels operated under the flags of Russia, China, Liberia, Netherlands, Hong Kong, Portugal, Panama, and the Bahamas. Cabotage was the main direction for the transits (16 out of 37 voyages).
The NSR remains a risky route, though, as it suffers from severe and unpredictable weather conditions that hinder scheduled operations. Moreover, the relatively short period of summer navigation does not allow for year-round traffic.
Forecasts of future NSR usage accounting for climate change entail two extreme scenarios. If the current climate pattern is part of a longer natural cycle, then the planet is most probably facing the peak of a warming phase, which is followed by a cooling period. In such a case, the summer navigation window could shrink to just 60 days. The opposite and more credited scenario, backed up by more than 90% of the scientific community, identifies a strong anthropogenic component in climate change and predicts global warming by several degrees Celsius by the end of the century. The lengthening of the summer navigation window, however, would be relatively limited, with only a week gained each decade. The current summer period lasts for about 140 days, thus a significant increase in the short term is not envisaged. Moreover, warmer conditions would not automatically ease the difficult navigation conditions on the NSR: quite the opposite, as basically all climate models accompany higher temperatures with severe and more extreme weather systems.
Depending on the ice class of the vessel, navigation period, and weather conditions, icebreaking assistance may be required either in individual sections or along the entire route. This essentially translates into two key constraints: low speed and dependence on the icebreaker fleet.
The maximum speed during summertime — from July to October, with optimal weather, and light ice conditions — can be 17 to 19 knots. In winter, with severe ice conditions, the speed can decrease to 6 knots, and sometimes to zero, creating a downtime.
The harsh climate of the Far North imposes restrictions on the permissible cargo for transportation. Air temperature during winter averages -30 degrees Celsius (-22 degrees Fahrenheit), while in summer it remains around 0 degrees Celsius. These temperatures may not be suitable for electronics, plastics, food, and chemical products. In principle, temperature-controlled containers could be used to keep the cargo at an appropriate temperature, but this would increase the cost of transportation significantly.
Difficulties and limitations arise not only with the transported goods but also with the operation of the fleet, as the unpredictable weather poses an increased risk for the fleet and crew. Rescue operations on the NSR are in fact, complicated by the low air and water temperature and by the floating ice. Moreover, year-round navigation on the NSR would be impossible without an expanded and modernized icebreaker fleet, as well as a functional support infrastructure, which must include an ice monitoring system, repair services, and risk management measures related to the use of nuclear-powered icebreakers.
As of 2019, 17 icebreakers were deployed on the NSR. The construction of 12 more vessels is planned by Russia from 2022 to 2026. The Russian Federation also invested 587 billion rubles ($8.34 billion) in modernizing the infrastructure and developing the route.
High expectations have arisen, in particular, around the Leader nuclear-powered icebreaker project, also known as “Project 10510 icebreaker”, which is currently under development. While construction is planned from 2021 to 2025, the first vessel is expected to be commissioned by 2027, with the completion of two more by 2033. Leader icebreakers are supposed to be deployed in the most challenging sections of the NSR, where they would be able to overcome more than 4 meters thick continuous ice and form a shipping channel up to 50 meters wide. Moreover, Leader icebreakers would be able to provide assistance to container ships with a capacity of up to 14 thousand TEU, against the current 4 thousand TEU of the existing icebreakers.
By 2035, the Russian government and the Northern Sea Route Directorate plan to develop the so-called Northern Sea Transit Corridor, which, in addition to the NSR ports, will include the ports of Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, Onega, and Kandalaksha in the west, and Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky in the east.
“We need to ensure regularity and predictability of transportation. The cost of passing the NSR through state support should be slightly lower than the cost of the southern route, at least in the early years. It is important that transport companies and shippers believe that goods can be transported safely and on time via the NSR. We started working on a project to create a regular container line between Murmansk and Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, to which goods from Europe and Asia will be delivered by feeder vessels, consolidated there on domestic container ships, and delivered under state guarantees” declared A. Krutikov, deputy head of the Ministry of Eastern Development.
Despite the NSR’s great potential in terms of cost and transit time reduction thanks to the shorter distances, the usage of the route is still limited because of the short summer season and lack of infrastructure. Despite the ice melting, the potential impact of global warming on the length of the summer season is small, and the assistance of icebreakers will still be needed. Nonetheless, Russia has shown interest in developing the route and is heavily investing in its infrastructure, to ensure year-round navigation, which could attract shippers and transportation companies towards a regular usage of the NSR.
Anna Sindjajeva is a logistics team leader for Allyn International Services.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
While these supertanker sized ice breakers are big they are not all that wide compared to the miles of width of the arctic ocean. There passage will be like cutting a thin pencil line in the map. Also other ships, even ice breakers, will follow the same line to save the energy that would be used to cut through new unbroken ice pack. So a measurable acceleration of ice melting due to there passages is highly unlikely.JuanP wrote:
Also, the navigation of icebreakers breaks the ice pack continuosly everywhere they go, so their use accelerates the process of Arctic sea ice melting because smaller chunks of ice melt faster.
Newfie wrote:VT,
Not so sure of that. The ice freezes to the land and gets locked in place, it’s called “fast ice” because it’s fixed to the land. Breaking that land connection may allow the ice to move quite a bit more. Or it may not, I just don’t know.
sparky wrote:.
Well it's not "all year around " yet but the shipping season got from a few weeks to five months now
the advantage of having the big ice breakers is that it allow an extra week of shipping
on both the start and the end of the season
https://www.arctictoday.com/russian-arc ... n-3-years/
and from the very good source "the Barents observer " (to be bookmarked as a reference source on anything arctic )
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arcti ... -new-route
basically the article is saying that the old idea of the North East passage was
...from Novaya Ziemla to the Bering sea
has now been replaced by
...from Murmansk to the Bering sea
it actually make more sense since it include way more shipping , both actual and potential
I suppose the next step is to describe it as going
....from Narvik to the Bering sea
sparky wrote:this last estimate for non ice-ready ships to have a 50 days sailing window around the September minimum this is a variable number weather being what it is but an estimate of one hundred days sailing with ice-breakers is as of now a good estimate
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