[MonteQuest]

MonteQuest"

I agree. Some have opined that all the renewables we will ever need have already been built. Others have said that all the renewables we will ever have--have already been built. Connect the dots.

I see both of those as obviously false, dots connected or not.
Consider using fossil fuels to build and ICE car that will then burn fossil fuel throughout it's life time ,against using a similar amount of fossil fuel to build an EV and solar panels ,which will then use the power from the panels to run the car as far as the ICE vehicle goes if not farther. Less total fossil fuel use, cleaner air , as much accomplished for the owner in the way if transportation. etc.

It's still too much sugar in the Petri Dish. If a boat has a capacity of 8 and there are 20 onboard, (2 1/2 earths) letting a few off doesn't stop the boat from swamping or capsizing. You have to let 12 off. Anything beyond 8 is overshoot, subject to a die-off. You are either above carrying capacity or you are not.

And the connect the dots above means that society and population collapses where you can't build more, or don't need to.

[vtsnowedin]

Some Coal company excecatives have opined that all the renewables we will ever need have already been built. As there is plenty of coal and oil left.
Others Doomers have said that all the renewables we will ever have--have already been built. Because they expect corporate America to cut off funding to maintain BAU.

[MonteQuest]

Some Coal company excecatives have opined that all the renewables we will ever need have already been built. As there is plenty of coal and oil left.
Others Doomers have said that all the renewables we will ever have--have already been built. Because they expect corporate America to cut off funding to maintain BAU.

LOL! Economic collapse is at hand; Mother Nature is in the warm-up circle, and she bats last.

[C8]

The third world will take whatever fossil fuels the rest don't want

[vtsnowedin]

The third world will take whatever fossil fuels the rest don't want

For sure for sure!

[REAL Green]

“USGS says Powder River Basin has 35 years of coal left, not 250”
http://energyskeptic.com/2020/coal-powd ... -reserves/

“The USGS did a survey of coal in the U.S. in 1974 and announced that America had 250 years of coal left. In 2007, the National Research Council wrote a report suggesting 100 years was more likely due to “a combination of increased rates of production…transportation issues, recoverability, and location”, and that the USGS ought to re-survey the U.S. to find out. Not until 2015 was a new survey done on the Powder River Basin (PRB) in Wyoming and Montana, which supplies 45% of U.S. coal. The USGS found that at best, 40 years of coal were left (35 years in 2020). Here’s how the USGS calculated this in Billions of Short Tons:
1,156 BST original resources (mostly coal that isn’t economic or technologically obtainable).
1,148 BST after subtracting out previously mined coal
179 BST geological constraints; subtract Environmental, societal, technological restrictions
162 BST Subtract too deep, too thin, high stripping ratios, mining technology limitations
25 BST 2% of original resource estimate after subtracting coal that is more expensive than the market value of coal”

[vtsnowedin]

“USGS says Powder River Basin has 35 years of coal left, not 250”
http://energyskeptic.com/2020/coal-powd ... -reserves/

“The USGS did a survey of coal in the U.S. in 1974 and announced that America had 250 years of coal left. In 2007, the National Research Council wrote a report suggesting 100 years was more likely due to “a combination of increased rates of production…transportation issues, recoverability, and location”, and that the USGS ought to re-survey the U.S. to find out. Not until 2015 was a new survey done on the Powder River Basin (PRB) in Wyoming and Montana, which supplies 45% of U.S. coal. The USGS found that at best, 40 years of coal were left (35 years in 2020). Here’s how the USGS calculated this in Billions of Short Tons:
1,156 BST original resources (mostly coal that isn’t economic or technologically obtainable).
1,148 BST after subtracting out previously mined coal
179 BST geological constraints; subtract Environmental, societal, technological restrictions
162 BST Subtract too deep, too thin, high stripping ratios, mining technology limitations
25 BST 2% of original resource estimate after subtracting coal that is more expensive than the market value of coal”

If you are under thirty five years of age that might worry you. Me? not so much.

[MonteQuest]

“USGS says Powder River Basin has 35 years of coal left, not 250”

If you are under thirty five years of age that might worry you. Me? not so much.

That depends upon when coal production peaks. It will before it runs out.

[vtsnowedin]

“USGS says Powder River Basin has 35 years of coal left, not 250”

If you are under thirty five years of age that might worry you. Me? not so much.

That depends upon when coal production peaks. It will before it runs out.

I expect demand for coal to peak before it's supply peaks given the large number of deposits around the world that are not yet exploited due to the more profitable deposits like the Powder river basin and others in Australia etc. I don't see any shortage in the fifteen years or so I have left but price hikes are quite possible. That all depends on China and India getting away from coal powered electric generation which has yet to peak much less begun to decline.

[MonteQuest]

I expect demand for coal to peak before it's supply peaks given the large number of deposits around the world that are not yet exploited due to the more profitable deposits like the Powder river basin and others in Australia etc. I don't see any shortage in the fifteen years or so I have left but price hikes are quite possible. That all depends on China and India getting away from coal powered electric generation which has yet to peak much less begun to decline.

According to Global Coal Plant Tracker, there are currently 1,035 new coal-fired power plants under construction, permitted, in pre-permit, or announced. Most will be built in countries like China, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam.

[vtsnowedin]

I expect demand for coal to peak before it's supply peaks given the large number of deposits around the world that are not yet exploited due to the more profitable deposits like the Powder river basin and others in Australia etc. I don't see any shortage in the fifteen years or so I have left but price hikes are quite possible. That all depends on China and India getting away from coal powered electric generation which has yet to peak much less begun to decline.

According to Global Coal Plant Tracker, there are currently 1,035 new coal-fired power plants under construction, permitted, in pre-permit, or announced. Most will be built in countries like China, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam.

Yes I know but I expect that building to slow down and end over the next decade or so. One they will have enough of them built and two renewables will slowly replace them.

[MonteQuest]

According to Global Coal Plant Tracker, there are currently 1,035 new coal-fired power plants under construction, permitted, in pre-permit, or announced. Most will be built in countries like China, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam.

Yes I know but I expect that building to slow down and end over the next decade or so. One they will have enough of them built and two renewables will slowly replace them.

Perhaps. Currently, renewables are only meeting 25% of new energy demand, much less replacing. NG is replacing coal in most instances. And slowly is the keyword for renewables growth; "too slow to address climate change and to meet the new energy demands of a growing world economy and population."--IEA

[vtsnowedin]

Slowly but accelerating.

[MonteQuest]

Slowly but accelerating.

Maybe. 2017 to 2018, renewables actually lost share of electricity capacity from 26.5% to 26.2%. Wind and solar slowed their growth of electrical power capture from 2% in 2017 to just .4% in 2018. Wind's share even declined .1%. So did hydro, by .6%. In 2018, wind and solar grew their share of the overall energy supply .3%, compared to .1% in the previous 2 years, largely due to the decline in hydropower, I imagine. 2019's numbers will be out in June.

[vtsnowedin]

Slowly but accelerating.

Maybe. 2017 to 2018, renewables actually lost share of electricity capacity from 26.5% to 26.2%. Wind and solar slowed their growth of electrical power capture from 2% in 2017 to just .4% in 2018. Wind's share even declined .1%. So did hydro, by .6%. In 2018, wind and solar grew their share of the overall energy supply .3%, compared to .1% in the previous 2 years, largely due to the decline in hydropower, I imagine. 2019's numbers will be out in June.

I expect most of that decline came from a lot of new natural gas combined cycle plants coming on line to replace coal with more capacity then what they replaced. Hydro power is pretty much fixed benchmark with what comes in from Canada so any decline in it's percentage of the mix is probably do to growth elsewhere.
Solar farms are going up here by the acre rapidly and Vermont is not the ideal location for them. I would think they would concentrate on the southern states and if their effort is anything like what I'm seeing here the Amount of solar generation will double rapidly.

[MonteQuest]

Solar farms are going up here by the acre rapidly and Vermont is not the ideal location for them. I would think they would concentrate on the southern states and if their effort is anything like what I'm seeing here the Amount of solar generation will double rapidly.

Meanwhile, new energy demand doubles. It's the capture of overall energy demand that is crucial. Wind and solar have been rapidly growing installed capacity for over a decade, yet they are largely stuck in Red Queen Syndrome--no matter how cheap they get or how fast they are put up.

[MonteQuest]

I expect most of that decline came from a lot of new natural gas combined cycle plants coming on line to replace coal with more capacity then what they replaced. Hydro power is pretty much fixed benchmark with what comes in from Canada so any decline in it's percentage of the mix is probably do to growth elsewhere.

Those stats were for the world. The decline was largely due to hydro's loss and more NG capacity. I'm not totally sure.

[vtsnowedin]

Looking at the United States only, wind and solar are now approaching ten percent of total electric generation with wind passing hydro power with 300 billion kWh vs.274 b kWh.
Solar is at 72 b kWh with an additional 35 b kWh on rooftops behind the meters.
Coal is down to 23.5% of the mix.
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3

[MonteQuest]

Looking at the United States only, wind and solar are now approaching ten percent of total electric generation.

Yes, the US has been doing better than the world average in renewable capture of electrical power generation, as of late. A lot of new installed capacity came online in 2019. 155 new wind turbines just 5 miles from me. More being installed this year a mile from me. "Installed" is the keyword, here. They waited until they had all the turbines manufactured and delivered to a distribution point before they started installation. Will this surge in installed capacity continue? We will see if the investment capital follows. Transmission line capacity was not adequate after installations last year.

[vtsnowedin]

Transmission line capacity was not adequate after installations last year.

A problem easily solved.
One thing I like about home owner owned solar panels is that their interconnecting wires can be as short as twenty feet. And if they are grid tied it places many small input points to the grid that don't require new high capacity distribution lines. The latest trend in installing power wall style batteries along with the panels allow that power to be fed into the grid during peak after sundown hours getting around one of solar's main drawbacks.