[Cid_Yama]

So I hear Cog as a voice from the future reminding us that someday there will be many Cogs in the world and they will be the survivors.

Wrong. Once the playing field is leveled, those with friends will prevail. The problem with Cog and their ilk, is their associations are only as good as the benefit they see in each other. They will stab someone in the back as soon as their usefulness ends. And thus have to always look over their shoulder.

They have created their own hell.

Those that associate through true friendship will pick each other up when they fall, and in the end will prevail.

Those with the most friends wins. Did you not learn anything from Frank Capra movies?

[Cid_Yama]

God sent Frank Capra TO MAKE SURE you knew right from wrong. Not as a rule, but as a choice. Choose wisely.

[Newfie]

Not sure if I've seen a Capra movie. Don't get out much.

But I take your point. Nothing is cut and dry and all ideas expressed here are simplified representations of our thoughts. The medium, being brief written exchanges, does not encourage nuances.

OTOH I don't know that the two ideas are completly mutually exclusive. I can easily see the formation of smaller groups of related and like minded individuals who band together. They may be fiercely loyal to one another and very caring while ruthless to outsiders. Isn't this the kind of thing you see in gang formation?

As we slide backwards, loose resources and ease, I can see the large national governments breaking up and "Balkanization" becoming the norm. As it continues to back slide the governable units get smaller and smaller. Eventually you end up with something pretty primitive.

Look at the break up of Yugoslavia. Perhaps you even see a wee tad of that now in the EU with the potential Brit exit and the (possible) end of Schengen. ISIS would seem to be another recent example. But the Tutsi/Hutu troubles also come to mind as well as some issues in Indonesia. In every case, the pattern is the same: folks rally around their own kind with acts of humanity and compassion while treating outsiders as low animals.

I'm not in favor of these events, I do think that their roots are within our DNA. Over a sufficiently long time, perhaps many generations, they are inevitable.

[Subjectivist]

Not sure if I've seen a Capra movie. Don't get out much.

But I take your point. Nothing is cut and dry and all ideas expressed here are simplified representations of our thoughts. The medium, being brief written exchanges, does not encourage nuances.

OTOH I don't know that the two ideas are completly mutually exclusive. I can easily see the formation of smaller groups of related and like minded individuals who band together. They may be fiercely loyal to one another and very caring while ruthless to outsiders. Isn't this the kind of thing you see in gang formation?

As we slide backwards, loose resources and ease, I can see the large national governments breaking up and "Balkanization" becoming the norm. As it continues to back slide the governable units get smaller and smaller. Eventually you end up with something pretty primitive.

Look at the break up of Yugoslavia. Perhaps you even see a wee tad of that now in the EU with the potential Brit exit and the (possible) end of Schengen. ISIS would seem to be another recent example. But the Tutsi/Hutu troubles also come to mind as well as some issues in Indonesia. In every case, the pattern is the same: folks rally around their own kind with acts of humanity and compassion while treating outsiders as low animals.

I'm not in favor of these events, I do think that their roots are within our DNA. Over a sufficiently long time, perhaps many generations, they are inevitable.

If you ever saw Its A Wonderful Life with Jimmy Stewart then you have seen a Frank Capra movie.

[dohboi]

Look at the break up of Yugoslavia. Perhaps you even see a wee tad of that now in the EU with the potential Brit exit and the (possible) end of Schengen. ISIS would seem to be another recent example. But the Tutsi/Hutu troubles also come to mind as well as some issues in Indonesia. In every case, the pattern is the same: folks rally around their own kind with acts of humanity and compassion while treating outsiders as low animals.

Good examples, all. But isn't the very fact that you have to pick out these special historical events suggest that this reaction is much more the exception than the rule. Don't you also have lots of countries with diverse populations that generally for most people most days don't have major problems like this? Isn't that the norm? Shouldn't that norm be at least included in what you consider to be 'human nature' or normal human social response?

Violence, of course, gets the press. But we shouldn't let that keep us from seeing how often people from diverse backgrounds are indeed generally in most countries living relatively peacefully side by side with each other and often cooperating with each other to advance their common good.

[Newfie]

No, that has been the norm for the most of history. Our current Western sensibilities are the exception.

I LIKE the current Western sensibilities, I savor them, like an ice cream cone on a hot August afternoon.

[Tanada]

Look at the break up of Yugoslavia. Perhaps you even see a wee tad of that now in the EU with the potential Brit exit and the (possible) end of Schengen. ISIS would seem to be another recent example. But the Tutsi/Hutu troubles also come to mind as well as some issues in Indonesia. In every case, the pattern is the same: folks rally around their own kind with acts of humanity and compassion while treating outsiders as low animals.

Good examples, all. But isn't the very fact that you have to pick out these special historical events suggest that this reaction is much more the exception than the rule. Don't you also have lots of countries with diverse populations that generally for most people most days don't have major problems like this? Isn't that the norm? Shouldn't that norm be at least included in what you consider to be 'human nature' or normal human social response?

Violence, of course, gets the press. But we shouldn't let that keep us from seeing how often people from diverse backgrounds are indeed generally in most countries living relatively peacefully side by side with each other and often cooperating with each other to advance their common good.

As a history nerd I can tell you unequivocally the named events are not outside the norm of human action. When you point to diverse populations people often point to the Byzantine Empire that began as the Eastern Roman Empire. They had plentiful food, a very diverse culture with many ethnicity living side by side, think of it as the ancient world version of NYC in the 1920's. Then after 800 years of diversity and prosperity the culture changed due to war and conquest. Today though a bit more open that Iran or Saudi Arabia; Turkey is not culturally diverse or open compared to the western nations.

Through all of recorded history and from Archaeology of even older cultures the pattern is clear. If people are well fed and have security diversity is allowed or even encouraged. When people are fearful of their security or hungry or both they revert to tribal survival world view. You don't have to like or approve of human nature to recognize it.

[dohboi]

Yeah, well, peace rarely makes history, anymore than it makes the news.

I'm not saying that extreme violence and hateful behaviors aren't part of the human response--it's quite obvious that they are.

But what we record and remember, in this case and in so many others, tends to skew our perception of how dominant or even overwhelming some types of behaviors are than others.

"800 years of diversity" Not a bad record. And not all of those years were equally prosperous.

Look, if you are trying to convince me that humans are capable of all sorts of nasty things, especially in the face of famine, you don't need to. That can clearly happen.

But times of great calamity are also often times when people reach out to help others that are clearly in greater distress. We see that every time there is a major catastrophe someplace--ordinary people come out of the woodwork volunteering their time, money, tools, expertise...people like to feel needed and to have a purpose.

All I'm saying is that this is also a side of 'human nature.'

Reducing humans to only their worst attributes can have a self-reinforcing effect.

[dohboi]

But really your main point is even more reason to pay attention to warnings like that in the title.

People in these cases will died not only from famine directly, but from famine-spawned violence, including mass migrations which also pretty inevitably lead to some level of violence and death, as we see from the ongoing body count of those fleeing Syria and other areas of (mostly) MENA.

But of course humans don't necessarily wait for famine to kill each other. Most wars involve countries whose populations are mostly not starving. The example presented above of the Rwandan genocide was not, afaik, primarily driven by famine conditions. In that case, colonialism's fingerprint can indeed be clearly seen. The Belgian colonial power essentially invented the rigid division between Hutu and Tutsi.

[Newfie]

But really your main point is even more reason to pay attention to warnings like that in the title.

People in these cases will died not only from famine directly, but from famine-spawned violence, including mass migrations which also pretty inevitably lead to some level of violence and death, as we see from the ongoing body count of those fleeing Syria and other areas of (mostly) MENA.

But of course humans don't necessarily wait for famine to kill each other. Most wars involve countries whose populations are mostly not starving. The example presented above of the Rwandan genocide was not, afaik, primarily driven by famine conditions. In that case, colonialism's fingerprint can indeed be clearly seen. The Belgian colonial power essentially invented the rigid division between Hutu and Tutsi.

Agreed, but didn't know that about the Hutu/Tutsi.

Have you read Diamonds book? I don't always agree with what he says and I think I have found some factual errors in previous books. But I haven't seen that criticism of this most recent book. It's as good or better than Guns, Grems, and Steel.

[dohboi]

I haven't read all of the most recent one, but I've taught the others. Yes, occasional errors or misinterpretations, but the most of the broad strokes seem pretty on target. Got to see him speak at the local University a few years back. Interestingly open to less geography-deterministic approaches.

[dohboi]

http://news.trust.org/item/201601261221 ... OtherNews3

El Niño parches Asia Pacific, destroying crops and drying up water sources

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZ7ol5ISxTM

[dohboi]

More El Nino driven African drought and starvation: http://newsdaily.com/2016/02/zimbabwes- ... ken-areas/

Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe has declared a state of disaster in most rural parts of the country severely hit by a drought, with 26 percent of the population said to be in need of food aid, the government has said in a statement.

Declaring a state of disaster allows international donors to raise money quickly to provide food aid to Zimbabwe, which has said it will step up imports of the staple maize by buying up to 700,000 tonnes this year to avert hunger..

The El Nino weather pattern has brought poor rains to already-parched southern Africa, hitting crops, including in South Africa, the region’s biggest maize grower.

[Newfie]

What do y propose we do about it?

Not meant as a poke.

[dohboi]

Depends on the who the 'we' is.

I think the international community has a responsibility to help those in crisis situations, as this seems to be. But it can't turn into long-term food aid. And food aid should be tied to requirements that women have access to education and health care, including prophylactics and abortion. And we have to be sure it doesn't become permanent food aid, which ends up hurting everyone.

But whatever we 'do,' our first responsibility is to not turn away. To keep ourselves informed of this and other tragic situations. Knowing without doing at come point becomes immoral, but doing without knowing is pretty much a sure recipe for disaster.

[Newfie]

OK and thanks.

I don't know what to do either. It's a bad situation and one likes to get worse.

If this is the start, or more correctly a continuation of trends the things are likely to just deteriorate. I can see an exodus from the region, but who will take them in?

What do we do if we find that it is indeed a permenant situation? Their land simply can no longer support them?

Questions we may well face someday for California and other desert states.

[onlooker]

An indicator showing how severe the heat and drought is in Africa right now are the wildfires now raging there. Wildfires in turn signaling a feedback mechanism feeding AGW. http://robertscribbler.com/2016/02/11/m ... idespread/

[dohboi]

http://phys.org/news/2016-02-drought-el ... thern.html

Drought caused by El Nino threatening southern Africa: UN

Many part of Africa are being threatened by this El Nino.

[ennui2]

When this thread started I thought it was highly unlikely to see "tens of millions" starve in a year. I still think it's unlikely but we'll see the global support tested to the limit shortly.

[Newfie]

I don't know it was intended to be "in a year."

But reall, ten million is not very many. 0.15%ish? 1.5%ish of Africa? Did I figure that right?