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WOW (World Oil War)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: WOW (World Oil War)

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Mon 04 Jan 2016, 02:47:15

SeaGypsy wrote:The US & others have been tinkering so long in the zone it is a big mystery what the place would be like had they not

The kings, sultans and emirs would be toast if the US & others had not crushed the secular nationalist movements.
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Re: WOW (World Oil War)

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Mon 04 Jan 2016, 02:54:12

Not all Arab Springs are good for BAU
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Re: WOW (World Oil War)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 04 Jan 2016, 02:57:52

Falkland is controlled by England today. And Texas was once controlled by Mexico. And Mexico was once controlled by France. And France was once controlled by Germany. Etc, etc, etc.

In the future fossil fuel resources will be controlled by whoever can control them. "Ownership" per se will be a matter of possesion...not history.
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Re: WOW (World Oil War)

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 04 Jan 2016, 03:51:37

ROCKMAN wrote:Falkland is controlled by England today. And Texas was once controlled by Mexico. And Mexico was once controlled by France. And France was once controlled by Germany. Etc, etc, etc.

In the future fossil fuel resources will be controlled by whoever can control them. "Ownership" per se will be a matter of possesion...not history.

Which I imagine puts the country with the strongest military in a good position ie. the US.
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Re: WOW (World Oil War)

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 04 Jan 2016, 10:00:00

Shaved Monkey wrote:Not all Arab Springs are good for BAU


That should be NO Arab Spring is good for BAU.
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Re: WOW (World Oil War)

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 04 Jan 2016, 11:08:48

ennui2 wrote:You have no supernatural knowledge of US "intent".


One doesn't need supernatural knowledge. You just need to read what they say is their "intent."

Before the 2000 presidential election, we know that Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld commissioned a “blueprint for maintaining global U.S. pre-eminence” along with his future deputy, Paul Wolfowitz, and future-Vice President Cheney, as well as President Bush’s brother, Florida governor Jeb Bush. The report, titled, Rebuilding America’s Defenses: Strategies, Forces, and Resources For a New Century, written by the neo-conservative think tank Project for the New American Century spelled out the genuine rationale for a war on Iraq.
The document declared that the U.S. would have to assume military control of the Persian Gulf region, whether or not the Iraqi regime posed a threat. (http://www.newamericancentury.org)

It stated: “The United States has for decades sought to play a more permanent role in Gulf regional security. While the unresolved conflict with Iraq provides the immediate justification, the need for a substantial American force presence in the Gulf transcends the issue of the regime of Saddam Hussein.”

Control of the Gulf and its oil resources, the document added, was necessary “for maintaining global U.S. pre-eminence, precluding the rise of a great power rival, and shaping the international security order in line with American principles and interests.”

The report advocated “regime change” in China, North Korea, Libya, Syria, and Iran. The report also complained that the changes it recommended were likely to take a long time, “absent some catastrophic and catalyzing event—like a new Pearl Harbor.” Can you say 911? Who needs conspiracy theories when elite machinations are clearly described in public documents like these?
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Re: WOW (World Oil War)

Unread postby Pops » Mon 04 Jan 2016, 11:19:18

The US is a corporate crusader, we off the old boss, prop up a new boss, then send in the corporations to plunder spread freedom. Briton did the same, it's how we started.

Obviously, the props have come out from under all our installed bosses. The Shah, the guy in the tent, the spider-hole guy etc have all come down one way or another. Replaced by, what else, governments who oppose the US. The irony is our zeal to spread democracy (or something else*) was enabled by a guy who above all else thought the Executive had unlimited power.

The new boss in Riyadh began bombing Syria less than 2 months after coronation a year ago. Ditto Yemen in October (?) And of course Syria. Solman has huge power, huge money, he is the largest oil exporter by far— almost twice as much as RU. Most people don't even know his name.

Does this begin to look like the old quip that the US is stronger than anyone but not everyone?

I don't really have any insight except to say this seems to be the same old religious war. We stepped in 75 years ago and ate their lunch while they were distracted but it seems they've recovered, helped along by our zeal for our religion.

Of course it is an oil war, because when all you have is a hammer ...


He was quoted in The Faith of George W. Bush as saying ...“The biblical prophecies are being fulfilled. This confrontation is willed by God who wants this conflict to erase his people’s enemies before a new age begins,”
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Re: WOW (World Oil War)

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 04 Jan 2016, 11:40:32

Pops wrote:I don't really have any insight except to say this seems to be the same old religious war. We stepped in 75 years ago and ate their lunch while they were distracted but it seems they've recovered, helped along by our zeal for our religion.


Goes back farther than that, Pops. The end of WWI brought about the the Sykes-Picot agreement and the Treaty of Sevres, which ended the Ottoman Empire and divided the Arab provinces of the empire between the British and the French after World War I. This may well lie at the roots of the rise of ISIS. ISIS may be casting itself as an avenger of history and the next heir to the caliphate after the Ottoman Empire.

Both agreements failed to establish a peace in which all participating parties could agree, ensuring that the future would be filled with dissension about the harsh terms of the agreements. In both cases, new borders were drawn that did not accurately reflect the complex ethnic, religious and cultural makeup of the regions.
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Re: WOW (World Oil War)

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 04 Jan 2016, 11:43:31

Their it is spelled out for those who think one needs supernatural prescient abilities to figure out what is going on. The source that I have found quite informative about US intentions and strategy has been Noam Chomsky. Curiously, though he does not go so far as to implicate the US in 911. Maybe because he values not just his continued tenure in MIT but the Chomsky reputation going forward. One can gauge in fact US intentions for an indefinite period just by researching the CFR-Council on Foreign Relations and The Project for a New American Century. I will just quote an important piece of text coming from the Project for a New American Century. Also check out the Grand Area of CFR for an idea of what they saw as the boundaries of US preeminence after WWII.
" The Project for the New American Century, or PNAC, is a Washington-based think tank created in 1997. Above all else, PNAC desires and demands one thing: The establishment of a global American empire to bend the will of all nations. They chafe at the idea that the United States, the last remaining superpower, does not do more by way of economic and military force to bring the rest of the world under the umbrella of a new socio-economic Pax Americana.

The fundamental essence of PNAC's ideology can be found in a White Paper produced in September of 2000 entitled "Rebuilding America's Defenses: Strategy, Forces and Resources for a New Century." In it, PNAC outlines what is required of America to create the global empire they envision. According to PNAC, America must:
* Reposition permanently based forces to Southern Europe, Southeast Asia and the Middle East;
* Modernize U.S. forces, including enhancing our fighter aircraft, submarine and surface fleet capabilities;
* Develop and deploy a global missile defense system, and develop a strategic dominance of space;
* Control the "International Commons" of cyberspace;
* Increase defense spending to a minimum of 3.8 percent of gross domestic product, up from the 3 percent currently spent.

Most ominously, this PNAC document described four "Core Missions" for the American military. The two central requirements are for American forces to "fight and decisively win multiple, simultaneous major theater wars," and to "perform the 'constabulary' duties associated with shaping the security environment in critical regions." Note well that PNAC does not want America to be prepared to fight simultaneous major wars. That is old school. In order to bring this plan to fruition, the military must fight these wars one way or the other to establish American dominance for all to see. " Basically CFR was already contemplating a world-wide US economic hegemony, while PNAC is contemplating world-wide US military hegemony.
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Re: WOW (World Oil War)

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 04 Jan 2016, 11:50:49

Here is the "Grand Area" as contemplated after WWII.
"The "Grand Area"
During World War II, study groups of the State Department and Council on Foreign Relations developed plans for the postwar world in terms of what they called the "Grand Area," which was to be subordinated to the needs of the American economy.

The Grand Area was to include the Western Hemisphere, Western Europe, the Far East, the former British Empire (which was being dismantled), the incomparable energy resources of the Middle East (which were then passing into American hands as we pushed out our rivals France and Britain), the rest of the Third World and, if possible, the entire globe. These plans were implemented, as opportunities allowed.
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Re: WOW (World Oil War)

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 04 Jan 2016, 12:03:47

“America, declared Paul Wolfowitz, must be ready to go to war, and many should be prepared to die.” “No threats to our “global dominance” will be tolerated - that will be the “dominant consideration underlying the new regional defense strategy and requires that we endeavor to prevent any hostile power from dominating a region whose resources [oil] would, under consolidated control, be sufficient to generate global power.”
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Re: WOW (World Oil War)

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 04 Jan 2016, 12:53:54

Thats why I prefer building thousands of nuclear reactors so that the World Nuclear War can begin.

This is the greatest machine ever invented. A nuclear powered cruise missile the size of a locomotive flying at mach 3 over treetops carrying nuclear weapons that can fly for months while spewing radioactive dust everywhere. Beautiful.

http://www.vought.org/products/html/slam.html

Development of new weapons is not necessarily a rational process. Despite years of formal education and training, weapons designers can exhibit fanciful behavior. In the late 1950s, a weapons designer at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory sold a program to the United States Atomic Energy Commission to develop a nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed rocket. The project, code-named Pluto, was funded with millions of dollars and assigned a huge proving area at the Nevada Test Site. This weapon system had one great failing: the exhaust from the nuclear rocket engine was highly radioactive. Had the rocket ever been flight tested, it would have spewed radioactive debris over the course of its flight path. Worse, however, was what would happen when the rocket crashed — as it must at the end of a flight. The radioactive engines would disintegrate and contaminate a wide area around the crash site.

Source:

Roger A. Meade, Total Quality Management and Nuclear Weapons, LANL, November 1993.
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Re: WOW (World Oil War)

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Mon 04 Jan 2016, 16:07:41

From my reading I decided everything inspired by the Bible done by government had to be suss. 'Ordained by God'- obvious codswallop.

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Re: WOW (World Oil War)

Unread postby GHung » Mon 04 Jan 2016, 16:41:26

Saudi Arabia's allies Bahrain, Sudan and UAE act against Iran
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35222365

A number of Saudi Arabia's allies have joined diplomatic action against Iran after the Saudi embassy in Tehran was attacked amid a row over the execution of a Shia Muslim cleric.

Bahrain and Sudan have both severed relations with Iran, and the UAE has downgraded its diplomatic team.

Saudi Arabia on Sunday severed ties and gave Iran's diplomats two days to go.

Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said trade links with Iran would be cut and air traffic links stopped.

But in an interview with Reuters news agency, Mr al-Jubeir also said Iranian pilgrims travelling to holy sites in Mecca and Medina would still be allowed to enter.

Saudi Arabia and Iran are respectively the key Sunni and Shia powers in the region and back opposing sides in Syria and Yemen.

On Monday, a White House spokesman called on both countries to "show some restraint and to not further inflame tensions that are on quite vivid display in the region".....
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Re: WOW (World Oil War)

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 04 Jan 2016, 17:00:32

GHung wrote:Saudi Arabia's allies Bahrain, Sudan and UAE act against Iran
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35222365

But in an interview with Reuters news agency, Mr al-Jubeir also said Iranian pilgrims traveling to holy sites in Mecca and Medina would still be allowed to enter.

Saudi Arabia and Iran are respectively the key Sunni and Shia powers in the region and back opposing sides in Syria and Yemen.

On Monday, a White House spokesman called on both countries to "show some restraint and to not further inflame tensions that are on quite vivid display in the region".....


Since the founding of Saudi Arabia the kingdom has understood they have to permit free access to Mecca and Medina, otherwise the entire Islamic world would turn against them from all sides. In fact the KSA provides air conditioned accommodations for pilgrims traveling to Mecca under the law of hospitality and the requirement under the 5 pillars of Islam that every Muslim visit Mecca at least once during their life.
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Re: WOW (World Oil War)

Unread postby Pops » Mon 04 Jan 2016, 20:02:25

...on the other hand...

A little "risk premium" might be just the ticket at this point. A few billion extra over a short while would ease the budget nicely.

...or...

A good excuse for why their production drops.

just a couple of random thoughts.
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Re: WOW (World Oil War)

Unread postby ennui2 » Mon 04 Jan 2016, 20:03:09

onlooker wrote:Basically CFR was already contemplating a world-wide US economic hegemony, while PNAC is contemplating world-wide US military hegemony.


PNAC = neocons. Died with the Bush administration.

It's 2015, not 2005.

If PNAC were calling the shots, we never would have cut a deal with Iran and we'd have a continued very hot war in Iraq and probably also Syria by now.
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Re: WOW (World Oil War)

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 04 Jan 2016, 20:09:14

How do you keep that from erupting into an inferno?
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Re: WOW (World Oil War)

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 04 Jan 2016, 20:10:07

That organization/think tank may have receded but the mindset of US world-wide hegemony persists as witnessed by the fact that we are not sending the troops back home in any substantial numbers. That imperialistic mindset Ennui is not going away that easily.
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