Aaron wrote:And my grandfather's wisdom shows that all things being equal... we will innovate and prosper...l
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
The real world is irreducibly complex!
Aaron wrote:Good points all.The real world is irreducibly complex!
"...you might as well predict it will rain beer tomorrow. "
Same/Same yes?
Aaron wrote:It's just not useful to make predictions in such a complex environment.
Aaron wrote:It may well be that peak oil is perfectly valid... but since it can never be "proven" in any meaningful way... it's irrelevant.
If you can't predict when... or what the outcome will be... just how useful is your prediction?
skyemoor wrote:Aaron wrote:It's just not useful to make predictions in such a complex environment.
Indeed, predictions must be made, lest we follow the examples of many other cultures chronicled in Jared Diamond's "Collapse".
BTW, what is a doomer doing in the moderates forum spouting weak cornucopian platitudes? Trying to stimulate discussion, looking for the depth of the moderates' reasoning, or both?
Mr. Chum
Not knowing the impact can lead people to hesitate about the best course to take, with the result being the same as a deer entranced in headlights. "
Pops wrote:Wasn’t Mr. Chumley a walrus on some TV show?
smallpoxgirl wrote:I am trying to position myself such that if its right, I'll be ok, and if it's not, well that's ok too.
Aaron wrote:Anyway, don't we think it's glib to say, ":Not knowing the impact can lead people to hesitate about the best course to take, with the result being the same as a deer entranced in headlights. "
In the absence of better estimates, aren't we just wildly speculating about unknowable future events?
My beer example was meant to equate the level of predictive capability in peak oil... about as accurate as predicting the physically unlikely beenr shower.
No, because significant uncertainly often precludes initiative in planning and execution. Unless one is 'spry', 'easy', or 'unconstrained', as in vacation cornrows.
Again, no comparison. Beer showers are a figment of some lush's imagination (or the unfortunate result of profusely gregarious behavior at a fraternity soiree) whereas resource limitations have been empirically demonstrated (the US peaked, North Sea peaked, etc).
...some lush's imagination
Aaron wrote:...some lush's imagination
Just what are you implying?
vampyregirl wrote:I have posted about this in another thread but... the human race is not about to go back to living in the 1800s. It is our nature to progress, to go forwards not backwards. There is new technology emerging in the auto industry and other industries, its not going to become dominant overnight but give it time.
If some members of this forum had been around 100 years ago they would have said the ICE could never take over from steam. Today they are saying the new EV engines and hydrogen fuel cells have no future. Times change but people don't i suppose
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