[Ibon]

Of course the rich will be able to live a lifestyle much like what we live today. The rest of us will be in abject poverty, which uses a lot less energy. That's just the way it works. It stinks, but there won't be much done about it. Look at Europe. All those refugees aren't using much gas and oil right now, are they? Meanwhile there are people living a modern lifestyle in the countries where they are landing. Will the refugees end up living like the rich? We'll see... I suspect not.

What is most unprecedented about modern industrial civilization is the affluence that spread down to the masses. Since civilization started the wealthy were always a privileged few with a vast peasantry. The only exception was our fossil fuel rich civilization. There is so much struggle now around disparity and loss of the middle class and growing poverty around the world which will proceed going forward as we are heading slowly back to civilizations historical norm. Removing the high per capita consumption levels of the middle class and restricting consumption to a small elite is one of the ways we eventually solve climate change and a suite of other environmental problems.

[ennui2]

Removing the high per capita consumption levels of the middle class and restricting consumption to a small elite is one of the ways we eventually solve climate change and a suite of other environmental problems.

The irony being that on a social-justice scale, one might advocate wealth-redistribution (which ultimately means more consumption by the masses) but this would ultimately make the ecological situation worse.

On the flipside is the call to those with plenty to powerdown, which has fallen on deaf-ears, which shouldn't come as any surprise.

[dolanbaker]

I've never really subscribed to the idea that less oil = austerity & poverty, sure it means less "stuff", but if you're really honest you'll find that much of it is not needed.
Those "must haves" usually end up at the back of the garage fairly quickly as they either never get used or have been superseded by the next "must have".

Simply putting an end to frivolous consumerism (& planned obsolescence) would save about a quarter of the the energy we currently consume, without austerity. The real issue is going to find employment for those who's jobs depend on consumerism. It would only take relatively minor lifestyle changes to significantly cut consumption, but for real cuts, then we're looking at a change in the makeup of cities as mixed zones replace the current separate zones so people don't actually need cars.

Peak oil will be more of a social issue than simply trying to cope with a dwindling supply.

[ROCKMAN]

donlan - "Peak oil will be more of a social issue than simply trying to cope with a dwindling supply." Will be??? So no social problems related to energy so far? I suspect you didn't mean that statement to come across like that. LOL. Perhaps you meant more intense social issues.

[dolanbaker]

donlan - "Peak oil will be more of a social issue than simply trying to cope with a dwindling supply." Will be??? So no social problems related to energy so far? I suspect you didn't mean that statement to come across like that. LOL. Perhaps you meant more intense social issues.

Yes, more intense social issues. but more to the point, more intense social issues in the "west" which so far is mostly unaffected (as seen by the majority of the flock) by the affects of the supply constraint. Most people don't connect the previously high cost of fuel in 2007 with the economic downturn of 2008 and they haven't or won't see the impending downturn of supply within the next couple of years caused by the collapse in the drilling of new wells.

[Revi]

It's too bad we didn't listen to the Hirsch Report! We would have had at least 10-15 years to deal with things, instead of no time at all....

[dolanbaker]

It's too bad we didn't listen to the Hirsch Report! We would have had at least 10-15 years to deal with things, instead of no time at all....

Very true, in the networking world we have a technology called Ethernet that transmits data packets onto a cable. One feature of this system is that it sends data and then checks to see if the line was clear, if the data packet collides with other data, then it is retransmitted. Our current BAU appears to be acting the same; if you imagine economic growth being one data packet and energy depletion being the other.

But then again, like in 2008 "the markets will sort it out!" the only difference being that the sawtooth graph of growth will be replaced by one of decline.

[dolanbaker]

I was being a bit sarcastic when I said that "the markets would sort it out!"
Yes I do know that consumerism is what makes the current world go round.

[ennui2]

Sorry. I am just feeling a little full of myself this morning.

How is that different from any other morning?

[ennui2]

Most people don't connect the previously high cost of fuel in 2007 with the economic downturn of 2008

That's because the connection is tenuous at best.

[dolanbaker]

I was being a bit sarcastic when I said that "the markets would sort it out!"
Yes I do know that consumerism is what makes the current world go round.

Sorry. I am just feeling a little full of myself this morning. Sorry to be lecturing but it feels good being correct about this entire damn rotten peak-oil thing.

Yeah, I know the feeling, I don't talk about it with people now as they just see the cheaper petrol prices and roll eyes!
I'll sit quietly by and continue to build the wind turbine, wait for batteries to drop enough in price to store the solar & wind power and growing the bio-fuel.

[dolanbaker]

Most people don't connect the previously high cost of fuel in 2007 with the economic downturn of 2008

That's because the connection is tenuous at best.

Tenuous yes, but one of the main reasons the financial crisis occurred. too much money being spent on fuel and not enough left to repay loans, plus a shed load of loans that should never haven been issued.

[Revi]

I saw a list of the most oil dependent countries, and guess which ones topped the list? I think Greece, Cyprus and Puerto Rico (if it was a country) were near the top of the list. There are others,such as Saudi Arabia which are very dependent, but they produce oil also, so they don't count. I think It's a prescription for bankruptcy to be too dependent on large amounts of fossil fuel.

[Cog]

So when the price of oil goes down the PIIGS should be less vulnerable to oil shocks? Or does it only work one way? LOL

[dolanbaker]

So when the price of oil goes down the PIIGS should be less vulnerable to oil shocks? Or does it only work one way? LOL

It doesn't work that way, oil is priced in USD and at the moment the EUR has significantly devalued against the USD. So here we are currently paying about €1.40 a litre for petrol, during the height of the price peak, we were paying about €1.55.

Not much of a drop (extra taxes didn't help) when the price of oil goes back up to anywhere near $100 a barrel, we'll be squealing like piigs!

People have got used to the current (cheap) fuel and will be in for a real shock when the price returns to the "new normal" in USD which will be much higher in Euros, we could easily see €1.80 a litre.