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What Will We Notice?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: What Will We Notice?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sun 27 Jul 2014, 06:30:08

JV153 wrote:What will we notice ?

Abandoned cars, cars sitting not moving, reduced construction projects, deteriorating road surfaces on all but the most used thoroughfares. That means roads outside major urban centres deteriorate first: the smaller ones, not the main highways. Shopping centres that are farther away from a customer base close down.


I don't expect to see many abandoned (well no more than usual) as scrap prices are quite high these days.
I have seen a change in the type of vehicle driven though, smaller more fuel efficient cars are replacing the SUVs of the 1990s.


Here in Ireland we came late to the "good times" and our motorway network is still under construction, the road network was seriously inadequate for the modern transport needs after the railways were decimated.

Most of the current projects are going ahead but most future projects have been suspended and I suspect that the majority will never happen.

One trend that has started to gain momentum here is a reversal of the "live in the country work in the town" lifestyle that saw an explosion of rural housing all over the countryside in the 1990s through to the late 2000s. This trend can be seen by the rapid rise in Dublin house prices and stagnant prices in the countryside and houses simply not selling and being abandoned. The high fuel prices are killing the long distance commuter and they are now adapting by moving closer to work.
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Re: What Will We Notice?

Unread postby JV153 » Sun 27 Jul 2014, 06:34:07

I'm already personally seeing some of the above. Deteriorating roads and abandoned cars, closed big box stores and closed factories. Aerial surveys are being curtailed. The roads closest to the farms and farthest from cities are often just dirt roads but need a lot of maintenance to remove potholes. I assume this is the case in the U.S and Canada as well. The big heavy semi trucks need smooth roads, hit a big pothole and it'll crack an axle.

Cottage lots aren't selling but who would buy a piece of land with nothing on it except hard work to make something out of it ? Nobody (almost), not even wealthy people. Fuel consumption would go up 10x if you had to move building material all around in the countryside.
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Re: What Will We Notice?

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Mon 28 Jul 2014, 00:33:47

JV153 wrote:deteriorating road surfaces on all but the most used thoroughfares. That means roads outside major urban centres deteriorate first: the smaller ones, not the main highways.
I think that depends on latitude/climate. The roads in the ghost towns of the US SW desert will be just like new for centuries. :)
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Re: What Will We Notice?

Unread postby agramante » Wed 30 Jul 2014, 01:57:05

Celliod-

I noticed your question about why global warming occurs. Since questions about the oil industry are best left in the capable hands of people like Rockman, I'll tackle your question about the environment (as that's more my specialty anyway). Basically, life on earth depends on greenhouse gases, like carbon dioxide, water vapor, and methane. Without them in the atmosphere, the planet surface would be, on average, more than 50 degrees colder than it is, and uninabitable by most life as we know it (just a few chemosynthesizers maybe, near oceanic vents). But we do indeed have the greenhouse gases, and they serve as insulators. Among all the different frequencies of radiation which the sun emits, ultraviolet strikes the surface of the earth, warms it up, and is re-radiated as lower-energy, lower-frequency infrared. The greenhouse gas molecules absorb this infrared and re-radiate it themselves, which effectively means, they reflect a portion (not all--they re-radiate some out toward space as well...and they also absorb the IR from the sun too--but their effect is a net positive on the earth's energy budget) back toward the surface of the earth. Basically, the more greenhouse gases--i.e. the higher the concentration is among the other gases--the more heat they help retain, and the warmer the planet gets.

Very warm periods in the earth's past, like the Cretaceous, from about 150 million to 65 years ago, featured dinosaurs, CO2 levels nearly four times what they are now, no polar ice caps, and a North American continent which was nearly 50% underwater, because of the Western Interior Seaway (the reason we have all those swell gas, oil and coal deposits running through the middle of our country). Carbon dioxide content matters. It has fluctuated widely during the planet's history, due to many causes, not all understood. One theory on the planet's biggest climate swings has to do with degree to which continents are plowing into each other and building mountains, which then chemically erode, removing CO2 from the atmosphere as they do, causing things to cool down. There's a decent-sized literature on orogenic climate theory.

Flash forward to now--we're burning all these organic compounds, releasing a lot of CO2 into the air, causing the atmosphere to retain more heat, most of which goes into the oceans. It's established fact that the world is quickly warming up. Overwhelming scientific consensus holds that humans are directly responsible. There are a lot of good sources of information about this on the web, but there's a lot of BS denialism too. The best source--thought not the easiest--is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC. They've been rolling out their latest batch of reports over the last year or so. They're amazingly thorough, detailed, and long. But one I recommend to interested parties is the first installment, The Physical Science Basis. It lays out quite thoroughly the evidence behind climate change theory. It's not an easy read. For beginners, I recommend the Summary for Policymakers. If you want to invest 3-4 hours and stretch your brain a bit, try tackling the Technical Summary. It's an education in itself.

http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/
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Re: What Will We Notice?

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 30 Jul 2014, 22:31:25

agramante wrote:Celliod-

I noticed your question about why global warming occurs. Since questions about the oil industry are best left in the capable hands of people like Rockman, I'll tackle your question about the environment (as that's more my specialty anyway). Basically, life on earth depends on greenhouse gases, like carbon dioxide, water vapor, and methane. Without them in the atmosphere, the planet surface would be, on average, more than 50 degrees colder than it is, and uninabitable by most life as we know it (just a few chemosynthesizers maybe, near oceanic vents). But we do indeed have the greenhouse gases, and they serve as insulators. Among all the different frequencies of radiation which the sun emits, ultraviolet strikes the surface of the earth, warms it up, and is re-radiated as lower-energy, lower-frequency infrared. The greenhouse gas molecules absorb this infrared and re-radiate it themselves, which effectively means, they reflect a portion (not all--they re-radiate some out toward space as well...and they also absorb the IR from the sun too--but their effect is a net positive on the earth's energy budget) back toward the surface of the earth. Basically, the more greenhouse gases--i.e. the higher the concentration is among the other gases--the more heat they help retain, and the warmer the planet gets.

Very warm periods in the earth's past, like the Cretaceous, from about 150 million to 65 years ago, featured dinosaurs, CO2 levels nearly four times what they are now, no polar ice caps, and a North American continent which was nearly 50% underwater, because of the Western Interior Seaway (the reason we have all those swell gas, oil and coal deposits running through the middle of our country). Carbon dioxide content matters. It has fluctuated widely during the planet's history, due to many causes, not all understood. One theory on the planet's biggest climate swings has to do with degree to which continents are plowing into each other and building mountains, which then chemically erode, removing CO2 from the atmosphere as they do, causing things to cool down. There's a decent-sized literature on orogenic climate theory.

Flash forward to now--we're burning all these organic compounds, releasing a lot of CO2 into the air, causing the atmosphere to retain more heat, most of which goes into the oceans. It's established fact that the world is quickly warming up. Overwhelming scientific consensus holds that humans are directly responsible. There are a lot of good sources of information about this on the web, but there's a lot of BS denialism too. The best source--thought not the easiest--is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC. They've been rolling out their latest batch of reports over the last year or so. They're amazingly thorough, detailed, and long. But one I recommend to interested parties is the first installment, The Physical Science Basis. It lays out quite thoroughly the evidence behind climate change theory. It's not an easy read. For beginners, I recommend the Summary for Policymakers. If you want to invest 3-4 hours and stretch your brain a bit, try tackling the Technical Summary. It's an education in itself.

http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/


The Phd Scientists are Idiots. They have been worthless crap (Advanced Fission Reactors, Fusion, Solar panels, String Theory, SDI, Quantum computers, Super batteries, Room Temp Superconductor, Direct Methane to Methanol, Algae Bioreactors, Nanotechnology, etc etc) for the last 40 years. Since they now have zero credibility, they're a little worried about being fired...and for good reason. And that reason is that they are turning your purchasing power into nuthin. Soon, the great hordes won't be able to afford a single coal plant to generate electricity. Already, Finland cannot afford to build a single nuclear reactor. And yet all their stupid marxist adults are packed into universities "innovating" when they can't even build their own device to keep the lights on. And their excuse is: "We don't have the resources".....How pathetic is that? So they invent this CO2 emissions scam so they can put all the industrialist pig deniers in prison. Thats their 'high education'. Phds, the union socialists , saving the world with 21st century gulags called mental institutions and chemical lobotomies (tranquillizers, anti-psychotics, etc).
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Re: What Will We Notice?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 30 Jul 2014, 23:39:47

StarvingLion wrote:The Phd Scientists ... invent this CO2 emissions scam


Do you know what a car is? Do you understand that when gasoline is burned in a car, CO2 is emitted?

How about coal---do you know what coal is? Do you understand that when coal is burned, CO2 is emitted?

Are you with me so far? Good, good. OK---now here is the hard part!

Do you know what a mass spectrometer is? Do you understand that when atmospheric samples are run through a mass spectrometer, it is possible to measure with great accuracy changes in atmospheric CO2?

Do you know that thousands and thousands of meaurements of atmospheric samples using a mass spectrometer all show the same thing?

Thats right! They all show CO2 has increased in the atmosphere from ca. 280 ppm at the start of the industrial revolution when people began burning huge quantities of coal and oil to ca. 400 ppm today. Gosh-a-roonies----thats a 40% increase in about 150 years---what in heck could be going on there? Is that huge change just a coincidence?

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Hmmmmm....If anthropogenic CO2 emissions aren't responsible for the increasing CO2 in the atmosphere, then what do you think is responsible?. :roll:
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Re: What Will We Notice?

Unread postby JV153 » Thu 31 Jul 2014, 14:41:55

Plantagenet wrote:
StarvingLion wrote:

Do you know what a car is? Do you understand that when gasoline is burned in a car, CO2 is emitted?



Do you know that gasoline is about 8 euros a gallon in most European countries ?
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Re: What Will We Notice?

Unread postby JV153 » Thu 31 Jul 2014, 15:14:18

ROCKMAN wrote:

The rig I recently used to drill my latest oil well used about 110,000 gallons of diesel. So we’ll use 440,000 gallons of crude oil. Or about 10,000 bo. The trucks servicing the rig also use diesel. And then there’s the casing and other materials used in the process. This is probably too high but let’s use an equivalent amount for those components...10,000 bo. So total oil invested is around 30,000 bbls.


That doesn't include the round trip fuel use of all the support vehicles to bring in fracing materials, piping, etc. and then truck out the oil, or the vehicles that do road building to each drilling pad. Pipelines obviously help here once set up but just the road building fuel use must be enormous. In many cases there may onky be a short access road necessary, but still.

https://www.google.ca/search?q=fracking ... 1000%3B667

https://www.google.ca/search?q=fracking ... B650%3B402
Last edited by JV153 on Thu 31 Jul 2014, 15:21:15, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What Will We Notice?

Unread postby Timo » Thu 31 Jul 2014, 15:18:06

Lay off, guys. Can't you see that StarvingLion is starving for real, actual knowledge about the world we live in? Science is a huge part of our world. The internet wouldn't be possible without science. One of the first signs of functional ignorance is to lash out at what it is that you don't understand, closing your eyes and covering your ears and screaming LALALALALALAL! I can't hear you! It's OK, StarvingLion. We understand your pain.
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Re: What Will We Notice?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 31 Jul 2014, 15:36:40

JV153 wrote:Do you know that gasoline is about 8 euros a gallon in most European countries ?


Of course. I travel to Europe pretty often. I was travelling for two weeks in Ireland in early June and I'll be going back to Spain a few months from now

Here's a quiz question for you---do you know how much a pint of Guinness and a bucket of steamed mussels costs in a pub in Dublin? :)

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Re: What Will We Notice?

Unread postby Beatty Ford » Sun 03 Aug 2014, 11:23:20

Did you see the articles regarding the drop in Exxon-Mobil's production? (bloomberg, zero hedge, usa today) This could be another indicator.
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Re: What Will We Notice?

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 04 Aug 2014, 00:01:37

Beatty Ford wrote:Did you see the articles regarding the drop in Exxon-Mobil's production? (bloomberg, zero hedge, usa today) This could be another indicator.


Who needs any more indicators? The cost of a coal plant 10 years from now will be $100 billion US. Not because of the climate change scam...but because of the MASSIVE FRAUD called FIAT MONEY. Peak oil is irrelevant because the problem is unregulated finance. And the scientists are a laughing stock. From a 2013 edition of Angewandte Chemie:

Article: "Gloomy Forecast for the Prophets of Apocalypse and Bright Forecast for Chemists" by Ehud Keinan

"However, these challenges are likely to be met by yet unknown technologies. The future of humankind seems now brighter than ever for two main reasons: 1) the remarkably fast growth of human knowledge and 2) the unpredictability of science. Thomas Malthus and his disciples have ignored both"

My response: "Bhawhahahahahahaha....he thinks the cattle are so stupid that they cannot even notice the rapidly dropping standard of living and will believe anything."

Big Oil is dead. If a country cannot afford a single coal plant 10 years from now, then why would I believe drilling for oil is going to happen.

BANKSTERS - "WE CAN'T USE COAL BECAUSE IT WILL RUIN THE CLIMATE"

REALITY - "WE ROBBED YOU BLIND WITH THE FIAT MONEY SCAM AND NOW YOU LITTLE PEOPLE ARE BROKE"

All I see is immense illiteracy, both financial and scientific. FIAT money is about robbing the taxpayer suckers. There is no economy.
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