[shortonoil]

"So all over the world cheap money is printed and continually invested in oil failing operations. In the US it is shale (shale actually requires $80 oil). Oil production is propped up with bad money. "

That is what we refer to as the cannibalization process. It is where assets are converted into consumables, and is accomplished through debt formation. That is why we are not yet seeing shortages on the store selves. We are consuming our capital stock. It is what must be occurring as oil moves from a net energy source to a net energy sink; that happened at the energy half way point which occurred no later than 2012.

To permit this to happen existing debt was used to secure new currency creation. This of course is a Ponzi scheme were old debt is used to buy new debt. The old debt is never retired, and because it produces compound interest piled upon compound interest the entire pyramid grows exponentially.

We believe that the canary in the mine is likely to be oil, as petroleum is responsible for 38% of the world's economy from both its production, and consumption side. The present price structure, which is unsustainable long term, was partially the result of the currency creation process described above. It allows for the production of product for which there is no market. Therefore, the collapse of the present monetary scheme is likely to be preceded by the collapse of the petroleum production system. Watch for dysfunction in the petroleum industry to determine when the present system is likely to fail.

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/

[ennui2]

The stock market is a deceptive indicator of the real world economy. So much so, that the TPTB had to bifurcate Wall street from Main street. Even more so in the last 15 years or so with the repeal Glass-Steagall and the frenzied speculation that was even mentioned by then Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan in his "irrational exuberance" quote. So what we have now is basically gambling in the form of derivatives etc. Not in touch with the real economy and much less with the working classes.

No direct mention of CDOs and the real estate crash?

Oh right, the crash of 2008 that was supposedly all about peak oil, not ponzi schemes on Wall Street...

My point is that bubbles can and do occur without having anything to do with peak-oil.

When doomers wade into the waters of economic theory they are really neophytes in the field, tending to want to draw hard lines between hard natural resources and the fuzzy lines of markets (i.e. irrational exuberance). If economics were that deterministic, everyone would be rich.

[onlooker]

I think Ennui, you are precisely correct in that no hard lines exist between physical realities and market dynamics. Investors and speculators go by hunches, preferences and ponzi dynamics as much as real world data. By the same token it is also true that real world economic dynamics can and do influence the markets and vice-versa. So the nature of the markets does not discount the notion that peak oil had some influence in 2008 on market perceptions. Markets can and do taken into account anything and everything. However, more and more they are acting like casinos in that they are speculating and creating a gambling type of atmosphere because their is lots of money to be made in this manner. I would add lots of money to be lost as well.

[shortonoil]

"My point is that bubbles can and do occur without having anything to do with peak-oil."

John Law might have said the same thing; just before he collapsed the entire French economy. Of course, he was betting that another finite resource; gold, could be multiplied perpetually through financial mechanisms. Just because we are attempting to do the same thing with the life blood of modern civilization; oil, should be completely ignored.

When doomers wade into the waters of historical reality they are really neophytes in the field,

[ennui2]

When doomers wade into the waters of historical reality they are really neophytes in the field,

Sounds a lot like the ArchDruid here. Humans are pattern-matchers and this is can sometimes be good and sometimes lead to false associations. Seeing Jesus on toast is just an extreme example. But the everyday reality is doubling-down on some iron-clad prediction that turns out to be anything but certain. History doesn't always repeat itself in such a predictable way.

For instance, I knew the housing bubble would crash. I was reading the blog Housing Panic for years before it actually did crash. When it did crash, then, when doomers spiked the ball to claim it was actually a validation of peak oil, I was livid, because it was really due to the housing bubble. So we've been in this game of trying to establish cause and effect ever since, symbolized by Pstarr claiming that peak oil "caused" the credit crisis. In the end people see whatever they want to see when they interpret things. Blind men and the elephant, as it were.

I really am not moved by a bunch of charts and graphs because TOD, if nothing else, was a site full of charts and graphs and very "truthy" sorts of analysis like yours. And that analysis turned out to be WRONG. Again I will trot out their prediction that the NE would face a huge energy shortage due to a lack of natural gas. The people on TOD were not dumb. But they lacked the humility to realize they might have a blind spot, and projected themselves as experts. Now they're gone and individuals like Gail have gone on to try to gather acolytes once again using the same tactics. It's a fool me once, fool me twice Chicken Little situation.

Eventually someone's prediction will pan out, but along the way, lots of them will fail, perhaps also including yours.

[ennui2]

More data to contradict the thread's premise.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-e ... UE20151217

[ennui2]

Actually ennui, your post is more than funny. It's nutz.

Why, because it's factual?

A few months of positive consumer news in one crazy country (TrumpLand)...

Stop it right there. I posted data. You are the one who is spinning it into a sarcastic punch-line, not me. The facts speak for themselves.

If you feel like there can never be a country with a bad economy and that the gates of heaven need to crack open and drop riches onto every single person to be willing to concede that the economy's not doing that badly, then no amount of positive signals will move you. But that's YOUR hangup. To normal rational people, things are doing alright. Not great, but alright. And that's why the Fed is finally raising interest rates.

[radon1]

Of course we are in a global recession. Commodity prices are in a free fall, transportation is down, international trade is down. What else.

[dolanbaker]

Of course we are in a global recession. Commodity prices are in a free fall, transportation is down, international trade is down. What else.

On a global basis, we probably are still in recession (as defined by below "financial services sustaining" growth), but locally we are still rebounding from the last crash.
I think that for us, the real test of whether the "limits to growth" had been reached is if the next recession kicks in before the current growth spurt recovers to 2006 levels.

[onlooker]

http://money.cnn.com/2015/12/16/news/ec ... index.html

Apparently the Federal Reserve disagrees, feeling that we have recovered enough to raise interest rates. Maybe they know something we don't haha.

[Tanada]

http://money.cnn.com/2015/12/16/news/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rate-hike/index.html

Apparently the Federal Reserve disagrees, feeling that we have recovered enough to raise interest rates. Maybe they know something we don't haha.

Even if the USA economy were booming that would not mean the world economy was fully out of the Great Recession that started late in 2007.

[Pops]

That US drillers pulled a surprise >4mmbd of frack juice from their kazoo is no small thing.
Likewise that the US gov put however many trillion on the card to keep the lights on at the ATM.
Those are things others either couldn do or didn't do.

In fact EU N Sea oil production went the opposite direction, falling by a similar amount to the US increase.
AND instead of propping the economy many countries undercut it via "asterity."

I think considering just those two, pretty anomalous dots, it is kinda hard to make any sweeping statements, not that we won't. LOL It could turn out that the US got lucky or maybe we just got a weekend pass. Worst case is we created zombies who'll eat us for lunch.

[sjn]

Most likely the US$ is still perceived as the dominant global reserve currency. For as long as that lasts the US has in effect a free pass to deficit spend.

[dissident]

Everything is hunky dory in the US, is it?

http://www.reuters.com/article/usa-holi ... NE20151130

Somebody needs to get a clue about how rip roaring the economy of the USA is and it isn't me.

[Pops]

Let me review...

nope no one said hunky-dory.

Nor rip roaring

or even hinted it is in especially stable condition.

Pretty sure somebody needs to get a clue about comprehending a post longer and more nuanced than a bumper sticker.

[ennui2]

More mildly positive news.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-e ... 1A20151224

Claims have been below 300,000, a threshold associated with a buoyant labor market, for 42 consecutive weeks. That is the longest stretch since the early 1970s.

We now return you to your regularly-scheduled Obama-bashing.

[ennui2]

http://in.reuters.com/article/usa-econo ... RI20160106

Labor market strength suggests the economy's fundamentals remain healthy, and some economists say that could keep the Federal Reserve on course to raise interest rates again in March.

[dolanbaker]

There's only one word on the Chinese trading floors and that is SELL!
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35248798

Trading on the mainland Chinese markets was suspended for the day, after shares plunged more than 7% for the second time this week.

The "circuit breaker" rule, a mechanism introduced to stem volatility in the market, was triggered in the first 30 minutes of trading.

Investors are nervous after the central bank moved to weaken the yuan.

This indicates that Beijing is looking to boost exports as China's economy may be slowing more than expected.