[Outcast_Searcher]

What exactly is the difference between "ultra-low inflation" and just plain deflation again??

So you're on the internet. You're on a discussion thread making posts with your economic commentary.

But you don't know what deflation is, and can't look it up.

Now I think I know how doctors feel when patients (via ONLY intuition) try to diagnose themselves.

To your question:

I have seen very low rates of inflation called disinflation, although technically that means the rate of inflation is decreasing. With deflation, the currency is actually getting more valuable. The problem with that is it tends to turn people into hoarders on a broad scale, once they become confident the deflation is likely to continue. Japan has had this problem in the past decade. That behavior is exactly the opposite, of course of what high inflation causes, where people shun holding currency. (Taxable high interest rates tend to be outrun by the inflation in that scenario).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disinflation

[onlooker]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... orld-bank/
'No end in sight' for global economic misery, warns World Bank

[ennui2]

"Shale is not coming back. The sweet spots have been drilled, necessary uber-financing is done."

Fame last words. Foot, meet mouth.

[Subjectivist]

"Shale is not coming back. The sweet spots have been drilled, necessary uber-financing is done."

Fame last words. Foot, meet mouth.

I tend to agree with Ennui on this one. Shale probably won't come roaring back to 2014 levels any time soon, however if they are still drilling so few hundred wells at these prices they will keep drilling and likely grow the drilling rate when prices inevitabley go back up. Might be fourth quarter this year I'd as late as 2020, but barring a total doomer collapse prices will go back up in the foreseeable future.

[onlooker]

A good article from the site Economic undertow. Here is link: http://www.economic-undertow.com/page/2/
I single out a pertinent excerpt "There is no overcoming entropy or declining purchasing power, only strategies to ameliorate the consequences and preserve resources/purchasing power for the future, along with some small component of institutional integrity. Managers fail to grasp the seriousness of our onrushing predicament: the destructive potential of declining resource availability/purchasing power is equal to- or greater than a nuclear exchange, the results are just as permanent. If managers aim to destroy this country, doing nothing- or more of the same is a good way to go about it! The establishment obsesses about money even as the real problem is a shortage of resources needed for our economy to produce the goods and services we expect. What needs to change are expectations. The money-system failures are symptoms of our resource shortfall, including declining petroleum prices and the widening circle of related industrial and finance insolvencies. Schemes that seek to maintain the status quo are certain to fail. Almost all of them are variations on the theme of bond-buying, dubious accounting and trickle down economics = robbery. Almost all of them depend upon central banks which have grounded themselves on their own policy contradictions. Absent change, financial accountability will enter through the back door … as central bankers and the their private sector clients are engulfed by the system collapse taking place under their feet. One way or the other, finance claims will be brought into alignment with purchasing power. The hardest path is the annihilation of claims along with finance at the same time."

[ennui2]

"The money-system failures are symptoms of our resource shortfall, including declining petroleum prices "

This is an oxymoron.

[vox_mundi]

Stanley Druckenmiller thinks the world is heading for a debt-fueled disaster

Stanley Druckenmiller, head of Duquesne Capital, thinks that the macroeconomy is looking disastrous and there are two sources for the coming problems.

Druckenmiller thinks that leverage is far too high, saying that central banks and China have allowed for these excesses to continue and it's setting us up for danger.

He highlighted that net cash flow has gone negative while net debt is still climbing at an unprecedented rate. He also said that instead of investing in growth, companies are adding the debt for financial engineering like buybacks and M&A.

The corporate sector is stuck in a "vicious cycle" of chasing earnings and adding debt, he said.

Druckenmiller Loads Up on Gold, Saying Bull Market Exhausted

Stan Druckenmiller, the billionaire investor with one of the best long-term track records in money management, said the bull market in stocks has "exhausted itself" and that gold is his largest currency allocation.

As bankers experiment with "the absurd notion of negative interest rates," Druckenmiller said, he’s wagering on gold. “Some regard it as a metal, we regard it as a currency and it remains our largest currency allocation," he said, without naming the metal.

Gold futures climbed 20 percent this year in the best start since 2006, helped by speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will be slow to tighten monetary policy amid global risks to growth and as lending rates in the euro area and Japan fell below zero.

On the Fed, Druckenmiller said the central bank has borrowed more "from future consumption than ever before."

“By most objective measures, we are deep into the longest period ever of excessively easy monetary policies,” he said. “Despite finally ending QE, the Fed’s radical dovishness continues today. By most objective measures, we are deep into the longest period ever of excessively easy monetary policies. In other words, and quite ironically, this is the least ‘data dependent’ Fed we have had in history.”

Druckenmiller said “volatility in global equity markets over the past year, which often precedes a major trend change, suggests that their risk/reward is negative without substantially lower prices and/or structural reform. Don’t hold your breath for the latter.”

[onlooker]

"The money-system failures are symptoms of our resource shortfall, including declining petroleum prices "

This is an oxymoron.

Only if you believe in the "Glut" as opposed to a shoddy and wobbling Economy in which buyers and consumers cannot afford Oil even at relatively low prices. And also believe that Lending can continue indefinitely without consequences.

[onlooker]

You said it Pete, the ride down will be exhilarating and I mean that in a bad way.

[onlooker]

I too, am worn out following this downward spiral. I welcome these vast changes because I have ceased too fear them so much.

[onlooker]

The root of a withering global economy is limits to growth and overshooting ecological balance and resource provisions. This article explains it
http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2016/ ... roken.html

[ennui2]

More appeals to biased authorities from onlooker.

[ralfy]

"Forget GDP – it is per capita GDP that indicates our demise"

http://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2016/ ... ur-demise/

[onlooker]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e93cec28-6ce8 ... z4Ih3G9jy3

Eight years after the crash, major economies including the US are stuck with sub-target inflation, ultra-low rates, and economic growth that remains pedestrian.

[dissident]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e93cec28-6ce8-11e6-9ac1-1055824ca907.html?siteedition=intl#axzz4Ih3G9jy3

Eight years after the crash, major economies including the US are stuck with sub-target inflation, ultra-low rates, and economic growth that remains pedestrian.

And any growth they claim to have is a fraud engineered via manipulation of the CPI and PPI estimates. Go to your local supermarket and note the prices increases. They are not 2% or less. They are 6% or more. Consumer goods are inflating sort of like Soviet breadlines; the prices may not be increasing but the quality is falling, noticeably. The trick to hide house price increases is ludicrous and yet another reason that the CPI is set to a fantasy value. The real CPI is at least 6% and the PPI is similar in size. So the GDP is not growing slowly, it is actually contracting.

[onlooker]

Good points Diss. Also, note the jobs market as downsizing and shedding jobs consistently the last few years. We in the US never did recover from 2008 crash. All claims is pure canards voiced by the corrupted parrots that is the main stream American media. I urge you Diss to check out this site with more realistic figures and data analysis of US economic metrics. http://www.shadowstats.com/

[ennui2]

Right on schedule with pointing to shadowstats. *sigh*