[Cid_Yama]

When I worked for the State Department, I was one of the architects of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe. The idea was to make it unlikely for a conventional battle to be fought on European soil. By setting strict limits on numbers and types of forces we worked to establish a draw down of conventional forces is a balanced manner to a point where little advantage could be gained through war in Europe.

Initially we were successful, but with the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the changing alliances in Eastern Europe, it became clear that without amending the treaty to recognize new realities in Europe, the treaty would no longer serve it's objectives.

Western powers recognized that by not ratifying the amended version of the treaty, the original treaty would remain in effect giving them a numerical superiority that would grow with each movement of former Warsaw Pact countries into the West European sphere.

They have, by not voting for ratification, dismantled the original objectives of the treaty and placed Europe once again in danger of war, but with one big difference.

The Russian Sphere complied with the conventional forces reduction, placing them into the position of no longer being able to defend themselves with conventional forces should war come with a numerically superior NATO. Should that occur, Russia would be forced into early deployment of theater nuclear weapons.

I believe the citizens of Europe are unaware of this. They have now traded security from war for the threat of theater nuclear war. And the old problem of escalation rears it's head once again. Any nuclear exchange can quickly escalate to global exchange.

Do the Europeans really understand the threat? Do they really know what is happening?

Most weren't around to experience how close we came. Nor how many times we came close. It is a major miracle that we are even here to discuss this.

Do you really want to roll the dice again?

Russian President Vladimir Putin said the U.S. wants "not to humiliate, but to subjugate" Russia, in remarks at a Nov. 18 meeting of his People's Front party supporters in Moscow.

"We had such brilliant politicians like Nikita Khrushchev, who hammered the desk with his shoe at the United Nations," Putin said in an Oct. 24 speech. "And the whole world, primarily the United States, and NATO thought: this Nikita is best left alone, he might just go and fire a missile."

Putin, noted in his Oct. 24 Valdai speech that when Prussian statesman Otto von Bismarck first appeared in the European arena in the 19th century "they found him dangerous because he spoke his mind."

"I also always try to say what I think," Putin said.

link

Russia isn't threatening, it is being threatened. Russia is numerically incapable of invading Europe conventionally. It would be suicide. Their show of force is a warning, basically saying, "You may take us down but we will really fuck you up in the process."

Should NATO decide to push Russia conventionally, Russia has only one card to play.

You REALLY REALLY don't want them to have to play it.

[Newfie]

Cid,

I expect you will get ridicule for this post because there are few dinosaurs like you and me here.

I would wager that the majority of folks under 30, but maybe 50, have little memory of the fear we grew up with. It's just not in their experience repitoir. My guess is if you didn't do "duck and cover" drills it will not resonate.

I remember the Bay of Pigs, and watching the evening news when they were drawing circles showing the range of the soviet missiles, and realizing we were in range, and downwind of targets. I was little but it stuck with me.

I like to think that we have evolved past these games. I'm tired of them. Sadly it seems not, and they are great fun for the younger set.

[Cid_Yama]

That is my greatest fear, Newfie. They just don't get it.

Let's put it this way. Russia could have Enhanced EMP nuclear weapons in space. Russia has used nuclear powered satellites in space. It would be difficult to tell the difference.

They are probably already there. Pre-positioned.

No warning. Once second you're writing a scathing response to something some moron posted, The next, everything goes off. Forever. And Dammit, that Idiot got in the last word.

Think of how life would be with every electronic circuit burned out, never to be replaced. No emails, no phones, no video games, no movies, no mp3's, no computers, no internet, etc.

Is that scary enough for you young ones yet? If you lived, you might actually have to read a book. The Horror. There might be nothing to do.

[WildRose]

My dad served in the Royal Canadian Air Force for 25 years. I remember "snowball" alerts, which consisted of all personnel (and their families) being awakened at usually 3 a.m. or so to the sound of megaphones outside, and personnel would have to report to work right away for a drill. I also remember my dad taping up the house during the Cuban missile crisis.

[Cid_Yama]

I was just thinking about what I wrote trying to scare the young ones into caring, and that's exactly what I would do if I was Russia.

No need to dirty up the atmosphere with fallout. Just set off enhanced EMP's in orbit and initiate the stone age. The resulting mayhem would do the rest.

And a missile defense shield would be useless against something like that.

[Sixstrings]

Here's the thing.. Putin has a track record of acquiring dissidents.

Dissidents in his rise to power (many disappeared), dissidents in the media (many disappeared), dissidents among the Russian people, then when that was all mostly settled he started to work on the near abroad.

So then there were Putin dissidents in east europe.

And then there were Putin dissidents in Sweden, and Finland, and the Baltics.

And then there were Putin dissidents in Denmark, the Netherlands, Australia, UK, France, Germany, the United States.

It's not really our fault. It's how Putin has governed, what he has done, it's why he has dissidents at home, his near abroad, and now the world.

I don't want to see war, or cold war either, but Cid if somebody is threatening and looking to take us down then you can't ignore that either.

We did the reset buttons. We did the globalism. We were using their rocket engines, Europe using their gas, and so much trade.

They put on a fantastic Olympics and people said nice things about it, and then they invaded Ukraine right after and it's been all downhill from there.

It's about Putin, he's the one who has done all this. He creates his own dissidents.

If he'd just chill out and stop it all, then everyone will forget about Russia, but apparently they don't want anyone to forget about Russia one way or another.

We'll see where it goes. Okay Cid, you're retired state department, and I'm not in the state department, but meanwhile here's what the vice president you and me both voted for is up to:

Biden denounces Russia, but says Ukraine must do more to clean up its governance

In private meetings with Poroshenko and Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Biden also again told the Ukrainians that the United States had made no decisions on the country’s long-standing request for lethal military equipment to combat the separatists, according to senior administration officials traveling with the vice president.

“They definitely talked about it,” said an official, one of several who spoke on the condition of anonymity about what went on in the closed-door meetings. The Ukrainians have asked for antitank weapons as well as additional small arms and ammunition. “There were no decisions today,” the U.S. official said.

...

While Biden’s tone was friendly and supportive, he made it clear that the United States — which hailed last month’s parliamentary elections as a sign of Ukraine’s growing democratic maturity — is becoming impatient with political haggling and delays in the formation of a new government.

“Even if the guns in the east fell silent tomorrow,” Biden said, “Ukraine would still face a struggle for its democratic and economic future. . . . There’s a lot of work to do in Kiev.”

Progress will begin, he said, “with forming a new government — in days, not weeks,” followed by fulfillment of a reform agenda that includes stronger democratic institutions, greater integration with Europe “and resolute efforts to root out the cancer of corruption that has hobbled Ukraine for a long time.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/crowds-in-ukraine-show-lingering-tensions-amid-biden-visit-to-back-pro-west-officials/2014/11/21/aea54b7c-717d-11e4-893f-86bd390a3340_story.html

I don't want to see WWIII, but I read this from Biden and I agree with it:

a reform agenda that includes stronger democratic institutions, greater integration with Europe “and resolute efforts to root out the cancer of corruption that has hobbled Ukraine for a long time.”

I've observed this thing too, I agree with the US state department, they are right it's that horrible corruption in Ukraine that's the source of all the problems. And I have watched inumerable documentaries, and news clips, and Ukrainians speaking for themselves -- and why they supported the maidan -- and they too talk about the corruption.

So, our administration is saying the same thing, it sounds like the right thing to me.

[Sixstrings]

Having said the above,

I have a real sense something has *changed* since that G20 meeting. It did not go well for Putin. It sounds like the other presidents really let him have it, and bluntly. He actually looked a bit rattled, in news coverage, leaving there. Just my impression.

And so now, we enter the danger zone.. what happens if Russia is losing this thing, now.. what will they do next.

Is a wounded bear more dangerous and than a growling bear. (I think it is)

We really do not want incidents, or cold war, or real war, of course we don't.

Apparently though, our government is stuck on Ukraine, and won't give it up, there's nothing to be done. It's up to Kiev now to show some progress and clean their government up, DO REAL REFORMS, live up to the Maidan values -- it sounds like if they do that, then Obama will do more, and give them weapons aid and a lot more money and they're saying Europe will give more money too, but everyone wants to see the reforms.

And the Ukrainian people want the reforms.

I don't know what the answer is, here. We can't give Ukraine up. We are not going to let west Ukraine fall. So wherever it goes from there, is where it goes.

I will say this though -- I'm an underdog type. I don't want to see Kiev fall, there's no debating that -- but otherwise, if Russia is on the losing end of this thing (my sense post G20), then I'll start rooting for them because I care about the underdog that's all.

Unless they keep bothering people, with these bomber flights, and spy plane flights, and God knows what.

I wish Russians would understand nobody has it out for them. You cannot find more sympathetic, empathetic, caring people in the world than what you can find among Europeans and Canadians and Americans. We care about Russians. China would never give a sh*t about them, in any future conflict.

We ain't letting Ukraine go, but, NOBODY is gonna stick it to Russia if they are down, now.

Just as HW Bush was so gracious at the end of the cold war. These are facts, we're really not the bad guys, nobody has it out for Russia, it's a family dispute. They aren't really like Iranians or North Koreans, either -- they'll stop all this and we'll be gracious and happy it has stopped and nobody will insult them and all will be forgotten.

[Sixstrings]

I was just thinking about what I wrote trying to scare the young ones into caring, and that's exactly what I would do if I was Russia.

No need to dirty up the atmosphere with fallout. Just set off enhanced EMP's in orbit and initiate the stone age. The resulting mayhem would do the rest.

And a missile defense shield would be useless against something like that.

You wrote a nice post, I for one certainly respect your views and sincerity.

You're talking about the younger generation.. but Cid, it's not the young ones in charge, it's John McCain and Mitch McConnel. And Joe Biden. And the Clintons, Bill and Hillary, both with a very long history with Russia. And the Clintons were involved in Ukraine for a long time too, before all this.

I used to read articles about Bill over in Ukraine (post presidency, his global initiative). Advancing US interests. The US position back then, this was before the Georgia war, was just to share Ukraine. Nobody ever wanted to push Russia out.

If you're ex state department then surely you know state department policy positions.

The state department, all through these years, Bush admin and Obama adim too and Bill Clinton doing his own thing out there too, has always said Ukraine has to work with Russia.

And then the color revolution happened, and to everyone's surprise Ukraine just jumped into the West's lap. That's honestly what happened here.

It wasn't engineered by Merkel or the US gov, nobody really wanted this, it was organic in that Maidan.

We can't even engineer anything to happen in Iraq or Syria, how can anyone think the US gov master planned revolution in Ukraine. It's just not true. People rebel because they want to, they change sides because they WANT TO, because they see something better over the fence.

Watch and see, in the coming years. Russia will come around, again.

They're Europeans now. It's too late to yank them back to Soviet times, they've changed too much. This new iron curtain won't work. They aren't natural allies for the Chinese.

I just hope Putin doesn't do anything foolish, if he feels his regime threatened.

The sanctions we're doing could be dangerous. It's actually far worse than just sending some troops to Ukraine. The sanctions are going to the heart of the Russian state and economy and that's upending a whole bucket of fish.

And I don't like the sanctions anyway, use our armies to fight military aggression -- these sanctions just hurt the PEOPLE. We're not against the Russian PEOPLE. It does no good to do anything that hurts them.

And that's another important thing to remember, that we aren't against Russia. There are Russian PEOPLE that are on our side, really, with our values.

If this does get worse like a cold war, then anything that is done, our gov should be thinking about the moderate Russians and the ones that are really on our side -- European values, democracy, rights. It won't help anything, at all, to get too russophobe and anti Russia, and risk making Russians that actually agree with us to choose, between these values that we're about to start with, or defending the motherland.

We don't want to STOKE nationalism there, or make it worse, and we shouldn't be doing any sanctions that can drip down to the Russian people. We're not against them, let's not do anything that makes it look like we are.

And all through this thing, actually, the Obama admin and state department and Pentagon have been very cool and level headed and respectful. The only thing I don't agree with are the sanctions. Russian people can turn on us, about the sanctions that are hurting them, but I really don't think they'd have cared so much if we just had our military making a stand against Putin's military moves.

Putin should be countered geopolitically and militarily, not with sanctions that are hurting the Russian people.

[americandream]

@Cid.

War in Europe at this point in the globalisation of capital is highly unlikely. Your and that of your colleagues efforts to facilitate the spread of capitalism has succeeded admirably and the objective forces of the globalising capitalist strait jacket precludes any forced decoupling until said objective forces dictate otherwise. And I say this with all due regard for your evident diplomatic background.

You can rest assured that this juggernaut is on track for a mighty crash in due course but not at this juncture, Mr Putins predicament notwithstanding. As Marx noted, capitalism is a demon summonsed up from the depths by the bourgeoisie, a demon they nor anyone will be able to control let alone prematurely terminate. This is a one way ride to whatever awaits us.

[Sixstrings]

To Cid:

One last thing. I do like your posts, I know your heart is in the right place, keep it up your view is needed and appreciated and a pleasure to read, and you're a gentleman and an elder and people should show some respect.

If this was not Ukraine, if it was not this place that I've followed since day one in the Maidan and I learned so much about and I have seen so many Ukrainians speaking for themselves,

If it were just a faceless Kazakstan or something, so easy to not care about,

Then I would go along with your view. But I can't. It's Ukraine, we're too far in now, we know too much, it's not a faceless Georgia or Kazakstan that we can just ignore because we know zip about it.

[dorlomin]

More of the usual sensationalist predictions of wars and end of the worlds from the same discredited people.

Still it entertains people so they will lap it up.

[Strummer]

Do the Europeans really understand the threat? Do they really know what is happening?

Of course they do. You seem to assume that it's the citizens of Europe who are instigating this anti-Russia movement, but that it completely false. It's the governments (specifically the pro-US conservative ones) and the EU leadership (which is almost fully made up of former Goldman Sachs employees), not the people. The result is that the people are turning towards the so-called "extremist" parties, who paradoxically are the only ones reasonable in regards to Russia.

[Sixstrings]

Of course they do. You seem to assume that it's the citizens of Europe who are instigating this anti-Russia movement, but that it completely false. It's the governments (specifically the pro-US conservative ones) and the EU leadership (which is almost fully made up of former Goldman Sachs employees), not the people. The result is that the people are turning towards the so-called "extremist" parties, who paradoxically are the only ones reasonable in regards to Russia.

Oh goodness, this kind of view of geopolitics reminds me of 9/11 truth stuff.

Occam's razor. The simplest explanations really are the truth.

It's not a Goldman Sachs conspiracy.

Stephen Harper does not work for the CIA.

And no, far right "extremist" nazish parties -- no wonder they like hard right strong leader Putin, duh -- are not the answer.

It's not an "anti-Russia" movement. It's an "anti separatist state stoking / annexation merry go round in Europe" movement.

It's about right and wrong, that if Ukrainians want to be European then they can be, and Georgians can be too, and nobody's gonna stoke it but if the Russian people want to rejoin the West one day then they can, too.

[Strummer]

Occam's razor. The simplest explanations really are the truth.

Exactly. The most powerful nation on Earth since 1945 (and the only powerful since 1990) is desperately trying to preserve its status for the next century using all means available.

[dorlomin]

It's the governments (specifically the pro-US conservative ones) and the EU leadership (which is almost fully made up of former Goldman Sachs employees), not the people. The result is that the people are turning towards the so-called "extremist" parties, who paradoxically are the only ones reasonable in regards to Russia.

Couple of years ago it was JP Morgan that was pulling the strings. Real politics is full of subtle dynamics and contradictory impulses in electorates and governments. Western Europe is still deeply haunted by the events of 1933-45. Almost every democratic politician fears that compromise turns into appeasement. They worry about how best to make their economies grow and they worry about how to assure a broad alliance of the democracies to prevent the need for their ever being a need for one. They worry about their own international standing and they worry about the price of food in the shops.

All this can be portrayed in simplistic narratives of malevolent plans by some dastardly force, its much much easier this way. Thats why conspiracy theories always are popular. Its so much easier than the hard work of reading complex situations.

And the sense of satisfaction from revealing your pet little conspiracy and the easily gulled lapping up your "genius".

Iz da lizards\Jews\Nato\Bildabergs\Commies\Goldman Sachs ad infinitum.

[Strummer]

Sorry, but this talk about conspiracy theories is just another conspiracy theory itself. As I said, The USA has been one of the two dominant powers since 1945 and the absolutely dominant one since 1990. It's only logical that they use any means available trying to preserve that status, and every other country would do the same given the circumstances.

[dorlomin]

Sorry, but this talk about conspiracy theories is just another conspiracy theory itself.

Its not. There is no claim of anyone conspiring. Just individuals over simplifying things.

[Withnail]

It's about right and wrong, that if Ukrainians want to be European then they can be, and Georgians can be too, and nobody's gonna stoke it but if the Russian people want to rejoin the West one day then they can, too.

We, European members of the EU, will decide whether or not Ukraine or Georgia are European.

Not redneck scum from Florida.

[Cid_Yama]

Cid,

I expect you will get ridicule for this post because there are few dinosaurs like you and me here.

I would wager that the majority of folks under 30, but maybe 50, have little memory of the fear we grew up with. It's just not in their experience repitoir. My guess is if you didn't do "duck and cover" drills it will not resonate.

I remember the Bay of Pigs, and watching the evening news when they were drawing circles showing the range of the soviet missiles, and realizing we were in range, and downwind of targets. I was little but it stuck with me.

I like to think that we have evolved past these games. I'm tired of them. Sadly it seems not, and they are great fun for the younger set.

Also, we had the living memory of the devastation of WWII. Many of our parents fought in it.

Of course they do. You seem to assume that it's the citizens of Europe who are instigating this anti-Russia movement, but that it completely false. It's the governments (specifically the pro-US conservative ones) and the EU leadership (which is almost fully made up of former Goldman Sachs employees), not the people.

Yes, I understand. We experienced the same thing in the US after the Sandyhook Elementary massacre. Well over 90% of the population wanted action on gun control. No action was taken. (Personally I am against gun control. But most people wanted it and got zip.)

Our government "of the people, by the people, for the people..." was shown up for the illusion it is. That world, sadly, is gone.

For someone my age, the young ones ARE the current politicians. The career government staffers, The corporate management. Those who are 40 now were children when the Berlin Wall was dismantled. Those who are 50 were young adults.

They have known only peace in their lifetime. Distant skirmishes like the Iraq War pitted a 'superpower' against small nations who didn't have a chance.

They think of war as going to someone else's country and kicking their butt. They can't even comprehend 'losing' a war, or of it even being close.

Without the risk of personal danger on the homefront, war is just a game to them.

I guess my point is, they are failing to properly assess the risk. Like poking a sleeping Bear with a stick.

If their only experience with Bears is the stuffed ones on their beds, they don't know what to expect.

With regards to Russia, having even one small nuke land in your backyard makes for a bad day.

[GHung]

Sixstrings: "It's about right and wrong"...

Sure, Six, I suggest you read Greer's latest on values vs facts.
http://www.thearchdruidreport.blogspot. ... -beer.html

Facts, Values, and Dark Beer

.....That’s true of all values without exception, including those considerably more important than those involved in assessing the taste of beer. To say “this is good” or “this is bad” is to invite the question “according to whose values?”—which is to say, every value implies a valuer, just as every judgment implies a judge.

Now of course it’s remarkably common these days for people to insist that their values are objective truths, and values that differ from theirs objective falsehoods. That’s a very appealing sort of nonsense, but it’s still nonsense.

Nobody cares much about your right/wrong values, any more than value-driven people care that I'm damned tired of them imposing their values on me. Until we get more pragmatism and fewer 'values' in our collective decision-making processes, we're utterly screwed, collectively. Not holding my breath..... which is why I'm watching this all play out from the cheap seats. In the early 60s, my father built a suburban fallout shelter in the sub-basement (a nice one, actually). Me? I got the hell out of Dodge, for all the good it'll do.