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Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 18 Jan 2017, 17:07:48

ROCKMAN wrote:....no one on the planet has the authority to "mandate" any actions by any countrty with respect to fossil fuel consumption or climate matters.


Yes, thats true at the present time.

But the whole purpose of the UN climate treaty process, before it was derailed by Obama, was to put together a binding climate treaty that would mandate global CO2 reductions. The goal was a UN treaty would be binding, i.e. countries that signed the treaty and agreed to reduce their CO2 emissions would face substantial penalties if they failed to live up to their treaty commitments.

As global warming continues to intensify, I hope the world will eventually come to its senses and abandon the voluntary Paris accords and return to the original plan to create a binding CO2 reduction treaty.

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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 18 Jan 2017, 17:14:38

baha wrote:
The good ole USA is also the world expert at using FORCE. If UN sanctions don't work then we'll just take out each oil well with a drone:)


There are currently no UN "sanctions" against oil wells or fossil fuel use. The 2015 UN Paris Accords actually allow INCREASES in global fossil fuel use.

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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 18 Jan 2017, 17:35:21

baha, I was not really attacking you either, just trying to assess how seriously committed you are.

FWIW, I dream of building a fully compliant, off-grid "PassivHaus", with certification and everything, which does not need to burn anything to exist comfortably in Wisconsin's colder climate. What's your place like?
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby WildRose » Wed 18 Jan 2017, 20:26:26

Individual countries are taking matters into their own hands to reduce their emissions, by having only electric new cars for sale by 2025 to 2030 (so far, Norway, India, and the Netherlands). Norway already has quite a bit of charging infrastructure for electric vehicles.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 18 Jan 2017, 20:33:19

baha wrote:Back then I was disillusioned and upset by CC and TPTB and had no direction. I decided to head off on my own to learn to install PV and take care of the planet. I got a job in 2010 when no one else could and Mother Earth has smiled on me ever since. There is no one at PO.com more committed to pushing forward into the next FF free phase.


Thats a great story. Congratulations. Please share more about your PV set up and other steps you are taking to live off the grid.

baha wrote:I am approaching the point of 'what do I do next?'


How about avoiding the onrushing DOOM as long as possible? 8)

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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 19 Jan 2017, 02:49:25

We are blessed with her devotion... :)

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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Revi » Mon 03 Apr 2017, 08:52:13

According to the latest info we are already over 1.3 degrees above the norm now, so we are headed to 2 degrees for sure. I think 2 degrees C is a fantasy. We need to figure out how to live in a world that will get hotter than that. We'll hit 2 degrees by 2050 whatever we do, and probably a lot earlier.

https://phys.org/news/2016-09-global-2c-threshold.html
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Cog » Mon 03 Apr 2017, 09:43:40

What is the normal temperature of the planet supposed to be?
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 03 Apr 2017, 10:49:39

Cog wrote:What is the normal temperature of the planet supposed to be?


There is no real normal, that's like asking where exactly is the high tide. Unlike tides which fluctuate every 12 hours the case of our climate these swings stretch out for millennium. But don't let these natural fluctuations confuse the issue. Humans are a factor and will accelerate climate change. Of course there is reasonable scientific debate into how severe the impacts but if you do the research and approach this from an impartial perspective it is very difficult to deny human impact. The degree of this impact is where we can discuss but this is for me a dead issue as its purely academic at this point. We are locked into a carbon based energy regimen globally that will not be all that much radically altered and we have actually come to a sort of consensus globally around this issue and it is what Efarmer posted earlier today worth repeating here

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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 03 Apr 2017, 11:17:59

Cog,

I once heard it said its not about finding answers but asking the right questions.

In this case the better question is "What is the normal rate of temperature change?" OR, maybe even better yet, "What is the maximum survivable rate of temperature change?"

We, a few, can adapt to extremes, given time.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 03 Apr 2017, 14:30:13

"We, a few, can adapt to extremes..."

Or not.

But yes, your additions "...given time" is indeed the clincher.

We (living things on the planet) will have very little time indeed to 'adapt' to the climate at this rate of change. Some insects, with their rapid rate of reproduction, may make it through. And of course some bacteria. But most of the rest of us will not be able to keep up with the climate whiplash coming our way.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 03 Apr 2017, 14:57:56

Cog wrote:What is the normal temperature of the planet supposed to be?



In general paleontologists estimate that during the worst part of the last glacial phase world average temperatur was between 11 and 12 Celsius, then world average went up to 13 C while polar amplification warmed the north about 20 C melting almost all of the ice sheet except for on Greenland. The massive change in albedo from mile thick ice to taiga forest is hard to wrap my head around, but that is why the far north warmed such an extreme amount.

If reports are accurate that we have warmed from the pre-industrial 13C to now 14.5 C as the global average that could imply Greenland will melt over the next thousand years or so.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 03 Apr 2017, 16:54:18

What is the normal temperature of the planet supposed to be?


The normal mean temperature of the world as defined by the "standard reference state" is Tref = 298.15 K (25°C) about 77 °F, pref = 1 atm. When that changes you can start worrying, in the mean time someone is pulling your chain!
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 03 Apr 2017, 17:17:25

shortonoil wrote:
What is the normal temperature of the planet supposed to be?


The normal mean temperature of the world as defined by the "standard reference state" is Tref = 298.15 K (25°C) about 77 °F, pref = 1 atm. When that changes you can start worrying, in the mean time someone is pulling your chain!


Yet more proof Shorty doesn't know how to look up even the most basic facts.


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