[Quinny]

With Elections in Ukraine less than 3 weeks off, but no sign of tension falling, what are the chances of them being fair. The polls seem to show Petro Poroshenko way out in the lead, which is probably understandable as without Crimea the balance of power is likely to shift to the pro-western factions.

Poreshenko has given no indication going of supporting a federalist structure in future, so his election is unlikely to calm the Eastern regions.

With all the hostilities opinion is bound to be polarised, and I can see there being massive opposing majorities in different regions, largely split geographically. I personally cannot see how this election will solve anything.

[Strummer]

The biggest issue is that these are just presidential elections. What they should have done is schedule new parliamentary elections too, that would make the situation and the support for the various factions much clearer.

[Plantagenet]

The biggest issue is that these are just presidential elections.

The prior president was impeached and indicted for murder, so the president's office is vacant.

It was a good idea to have new elections, but the Russians have successfully undermined the control of the central government over much of eastern Ukraine, so the voting probably will be disrupted there by the pro-Russian gunmen active there.

Obama and the EU have threatened new sanctions against Russia if the Presidential election is disrupted, so more trouble is likely ahead.


Obama is threatening new sanctions against Russia if there are problems during the Presidential election

[dissident]

What are you on about, Quinny? According to the western media the regime in Kiev is elected.

It's funny to see the NATO mouthpiece Planted-agent going on about Ukraine's constitutionality. There was no quorum to impeach Yanukovich. The kangaroo legislature run by Svoboda and the Right Sector and their Fatherland Party allies resorts to this to fake votes:





The deputies whose cards they are using to vote were forcefully removed from the legislature and prevented from returning.

This kangaroo legislature has passed a law that any national vote is legitimate even if parts of the country do not participate. So any election will be more of a joke than it is already. The current two leading candidates are pro-Bandera, namely Poroshenko and Timoshenko. Timoshenko praised the Right Sector goons who slaughtered anti-regime protestors in Odessa at the Trade Union building. Poroshenko has more brains and is not exposing himself as fool. The candidate who represented the over 50% of the country that does not back the regime in Kiev was terrorized out of the competition. They may as well select Poroshenko by acclamation.

[dorlomin]

Poroshenko and Timoshenko.

Oligarchs. Like Yanukovych.

[Quinny]

Well at least we can agree on that!

Don't suppose there could be a sudden surge in support for Petro Symonenko and Dobkin?

[dorlomin]

Well at least we can agree on that!

Who are you talking too Putin's puppy?

[penury]

The election in Ukraine has as much chance of happening as the one that was scheduled in Vietnam just prior to the American advisors arriving.

[Quinny]

When have I supported Putin?

Well at least we can agree on that!

Who are you talking too Putin's puppy?

[ROCKMAN]

Listened to a rather knowledgeable woman about the Ukraine on Charlie Rose tonight. Made a lot of sense IMHO. The general population of the country is really pissed off with the gov't of Ukraine...all the different flavors...Russia, Kiev, Nationalists, etc. Apparently it didn't matter what fiction was in control over the last couple of decades the entire system was corrupt. So now the different groups want control not so much to end the corruption but to get a bigger slice of the pie. If her characterization is correct it's not so much a push for democracy but more like different mob families fighting over control of the rackets. Essentially there are no "good guys".

[AgentR11]

It'll be fair, at least in as much as it will be a fair representation of what will end up becoming "Ukraine". And, to a certain extent, rightly so. Kiev is only going to lose more control of the East and South, and could very well become completely landlocked. So Kiev will be the legitimate government of the surroundings it controls.

Fair nuff.

[Quinny]

I agree Rm. I also have friends in Russia and the other Soviet republics who I admit also inform me that there is a very biased opinion being put forward by the Russian MSM. They are however much more informed than we are in the west. I have been described as pro Putin by some; this is so not true Putin is just another oligarch. I am unashamedly Socialist, but in the Ukraine the whole system seems to be totally corrupt at its source. The elections which I believe will happen will IMHO solve nothing.

[Quinny]

I think the elections will happen, but with Crimean votes out of the picture they will guarantee a pro west majority. Doesn't solve the problem; probably makes it worse.

The election in Ukraine has as much chance of happening as the one that was scheduled in Vietnam just prior to the American advisors arriving.

[Keith_McClary]

I think the elections will happen, but with Crimean votes out of the picture they will guarantee a pro west majority.

That's easy if there only pro-west candidates. Like in Libya. Democracy in action.

[Strummer]

I think the elections will happen, but with Crimean votes out of the picture they will guarantee a pro west majority.

Crimea was only 4% of the population of Ukraine.

[Simon_R]

Even if the elections were 'fair' all they would do is impose the will of the majority on the minority.

If the minority live in a clearly defined geographical area, and effectively want a measure of self governance, the vote will basically silence their voice.

Not really a recipe for peace and harmony

[Quinny]

Simon - Exactly!

[radon1]

Crimea was only 4% of the population of Ukraine.

This was enough. Yanukovich, Yuschenko were elected by tiny majority, 1% or so. The South Eastern politicians complain that with Crimea now gone they would have a lot more difficulty. Crimea consistently voted the "pro-region" position.

[dissident]

Crimea was only 4% of the population of Ukraine.

This was enough. Yanukovich, Yuschenko were elected by tiny majority, 1% or so. The South Eastern politicians complain that with Crimea now gone they would have a lot more difficulty. Crimea consistently voted the "pro-region" position.

Simple majorities do not work in terminally divided failed states like Ukraine. Even if only 40% of the population wants to secede then the whole political process is shot since they will not recognize any vote by the 60% who are against them. In Ukraine it is more like 50% are anti-Bandera and 30% are pro-Bandera with 20% leaning to the pro-Bandera camp but couched in Orange Revolution waffle about EU ponies and fairies BS. The Banderites control the Kiev regime and have succeeded in splitting the country. Since NATO backs the Banderites, the western media spins any opposition as "pro-Russian". This same western media even claims the victims of the Right Sector goons in the Trade Union building are "pro-Russian militants". (The protestors in Odessa were not armed and Odessa is not Slaviansk or Kramatorsk where there are actual anti-regime guerrillas.)

[radon1]

The Banderites are zombies manipulated by foreign security services, not sure whether they are able to control anything including themselves.

The country is clearly under a foreign yoke. The Kiev "regime" does not even seem to have a single ethnic Ukrainian at the top (which is a bit of a disaster for a "unitarian nation-state" as they like to present themselves). No suprise the Ukrainians are getting burnt alive.