[Sixstrings]

New thread, because this is serious breaking news.

CNN reporting now Russian ambassador recalled. And the Duma votes unanimously for war in Ukraine:

MOSCOW, March 1 (Reuters) - Russia's upper house of parliament on Saturday approved a proposal by President Vladimir Putin to deploy Russian armed forces in Ukraine's Crimea region.

The Federation Council voted overwhelmingly to back a proposal to use "the armed forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine until the normalisation of the socio-political situation in that country."

It said the decision took effect immediately.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/01/ukraine-russia-crimea_n_4879935.html

Not just Crimea. ALL of Ukraine.

Okay, at this point the West needs to be careful. We're dealing with a kid holding a match and a can of gasoline. So we need to be careful. I told Plant a long time ago in the Ukraine thread that if Russia wants to take Ukraine by invasion and force, *there is nothing we can do about it*. So that's where we're at.

Nobody wants war with Russia, obviously, but neither can we bow to them. So the West ought to play it cool for a while, see what Putin does and where it goes. If he wants to shoot Ukraine up like another Georgia and seize it, then we sort of have to let him do that.

When this is all said and done though, it needs to be clear we're in cold war now, Russia is a rogue state violating international law and invading people, and Russia is cast off from the West. The West must defend itself and be on alert and ready, and then do peaceful things like freeze oligarchs Western assets, and gradual sanctions like kicking them out of the G8 and other measures.

[Pops]

Putin is a narcissistic tyrant. But in a world where fast, easy communication is becoming the greatest enemy of such despots, tin-horn or oil-fueled, I rate him a dangerous guy.

But, I'd give about a 1% chance of us going to war with Russia over Ukraine.

[dolanbaker]

I doubt that the Russians will invade the Ukraine, they may enter the parts that they are invited into though and that is looking very likely at this stage.
They'll probably just occupy (by invitation) the red areas.

[Sixstrings]

I doubt that the Russians will invade the Ukraine, they may enter the parts that they are invited into though and that is looking very likely at this stage.

As long as the West knows he's not a real madman and we can keep it from going nuclear, then, NATO ought to be coming into west Ukraine at Kiev's invitation.

That's the right thing to do.

If we can't do that because we can't trust Putin with his ICBMs and tactical nukes, then what this new geopolitical situation amounts to is that Putin is holding us hostage. He's got those nukes, he's a big mafioso KGB tough guy, he can do whatever he wants and he knows it.

Which makes Russia a rogue pariah state. And they must be treated as such, and NO MORE BARRACK OBAMA playing footsie with them and John Kerry blabbering and "working with the Russians" on ANYTHING. F*ck it, enough.

[Islander]

Obama said that if Russia invaded Ukraine 'there would be costs', but what has he done? Absolutely nothing, once again, he has shown America to be weak and is telling every dictator and despot in the world that they can do whatever the hell they want to without fear of America intervening in any meaningful way.

[ralfy]

Russia has been acting in the same way as the U.S., China, and other military powers. Their citizens also have this illusion that they have a say on the matter and that "our" military will be fighting for what is "right". In reality, decisions are made by a financial elite working with government and military powers, and driven by realpolitik. There is no "we," "us," or "our," except citizens who are saddled with war costs or are affected by collateral damage.

[eastbay]

Putin is without question the greatest statesman of this era. Even his few remaining detractors realize this. He's all about Russia, putting the interests of his nation first, as any great national leader should. The USA wouldn't be crumbling and declining in the diplomatic game if we had such a person at the helm. I suspect the majority Russian portion of Ukraine will eventually be merged and reunited with Russia, with the border lines drawn back where they were prior to Stalin's odd "gift."

Plus, there's no way in the world Russia will allow anyone to threaten it's warm water port. And instability in Ukraine does just that.

[Sixstrings]

CNN reporting that the Ukrainian parliament is holding emergency session to invalidate Russia's black sea fleet naval base lease.

Their citizens also have this illusion that they have a say on the matter and that "our" military will be fighting for what is "right". In reality, decisions are made by a financial elite working with government and military powers, and driven by realpolitik. There is no "we," "us," or "our," except citizens who are saddled with war costs or are affected by collateral damage.

And that is EXACTLY the RT Putin state propaganda "alternative media" views that have taken hold in this country. That there's "no difference," there is no "we the people," what a bunch of propaganda. I've seen it happen over the years. You guys spout the RT line. You've been brainwashed.

Yeah, Russia has its oligarchs and we have our 1% elite. But I tell ya what, I'd rather American banksters be in charge of me than frickin' Vladimir Putin and Russian oligarchs.

If we ever lose democracy in our country and our fair vote, and our constitutional rights, then yes Ralfy at that point I'd shut up and say there's no difference and you may as well let Putin run roughshod and crack down on Georgians and Ukrainians and bully everyone and our president can kiss his ass all the time.

But that day has not arrived, democracy and human rights and decency are still alive in the world, and there is still a BIG DIFFERENCE between the West and Russian / Chinese totalitarianism. (I really don't even worry about the Chinese, they're responsible and want stability, they don't do this sh*t, but Putin is a really "dangerous guy" just as Pops said and he's got Russia on the move. We need to wake up.)

[Quinny]

Seem to remember some people getting all hot under the collar when Russia were invited to Cuba

Eastbay is of course correct about the warm water port.

[Subjectivist]

Seem to remember some people getting all hot under the collar when Russia were invited to Cuba

Eastbay is of course correct about the warm water port.

By he same oken if Russia takes all he red zone then the rump Ukraine will have no sea ports, hardly a viable place for them to willingly go. The WW II trigger after all was tha Polish sea access through Germany and Prussia. Poland fought to keep it for sound reasons.

[ExampleGiven]

The US ambassador has not been recalled. Some yahoo in the Russian Duma called for it, but there is nothing official. The headline should be changed.

[Keith_McClary]

Energy Ministry spokesperson: Moscow sees no sense in extending gas price deal with Ukraine for Q2
Kyiv Post

As Ukraine has systematically violated its commitments on payments for natural gas supplies from Russia, Moscow sees no sense in extending a Russian-Ukrainian agreement on a gas price discount to the second quarter of 2014, a Russian Energy Ministry spokesperson said.

"Ukraine has still not made current payments at the reduced price and has still not cleared its debt for 2013," the spokesperson told Interfax-Ukraine.

"If the things keep going this way, what's the point in extending the agreement on gas supplies at reduced prices? No point at all," he said.

[Plantagenet]

The US and Britain are bound by treaty to defend Ukraine from Russian invasion.

US bound by treaty to defend Ukraine

When the Ukraine surrendered its nukes after the break-up of the USSR, the US guaranteed Ukraine territorial integrity as a way to get Ukraine to go along with disarmament. Bill Clinton signed the treaty for the US and committed the US to defend Ukraine in 1994.

What to do? Perhaps we can just pretend this treaty doesn't exist, just O pretended Russian troops weren't already seizing the Crimea yesterday when he warned Russia not to seize the Crimea.

[dolanbaker]

Seem to remember some people getting all hot under the collar when Russia were invited to Cuba

Eastbay is of course correct about the warm water port.

By he same oken if Russia takes all he red zone then the rump Ukraine will have no sea ports, hardly a viable place for them to willingly go. The WW II trigger after all was tha Polish sea access through Germany and Prussia. Poland fought to keep it for sound reasons.

I doubt that the Polish sea ports had much to do with the start of the eastern front, Hitler and Stalin had already decided on how to divide up Poland as it was, if it had only been the seaports, why did Germany take so much territory.

The Ukrainian leaders may decide that to fight may result in a far greater territory loss as well as the increased likelihood of Yugoslavian ethnic cleansing occurring, if the country is split there will almost certainly be major population movements regardless of how peaceful the split. Just that a civil war will result in people being evicted at gunpoint or worse.

[eastbay]

Some treaties are just plain silly, best overlooked or ignored. Even if someone drags this dusty old ridiculous document out and waves it around there's probably some fine print, some buried clause, that'll allow Russia to use its armed forces to save Ukraine, too.

[Sixstrings]

Putin is without question the greatest statesman of this era. Even his few remaining detractors realize this. He's all about Russia, putting the interests of his nation first, as any great national leader should. The USA wouldn't be crumbling and declining in the diplomatic game if we had such a person at the helm.

I agree with you 100%.

He's "great" in the way that Hitler was "great" and was Time's Man of the Year:



But "great" does not equate with "good." There's a lot of blood on Putin's hands. On his way up to power, him keeping power, and blood on the Maidan.

And now more blood to come, with the Russian Army in Ukraine.

But I agree with you, eastbay, Putin is really something. Holy cow. Thank GOD Russia didn't have him in the 1950s, 60s, or 80s. Or democracy and freedom and human rights and human decency would have died in the world, forever.

[Keith_McClary]

Shifting energy trends blunt Russia’s natural-gas weapon
WAPO

While Russia flexes its military might at its Black Sea naval base in Crimea, Moscow has another weapon that it has wielded against Ukraine in the past: natural gas supplies.

Russia provides more than half of Ukraine’s natural-gas needs and since 2006 has twice curtailed supplies in disputes over politics, price and late payments. Those supply cuts rattled countries across Europe that depend on the Russian pipelines that run through Ukraine.

But changes in the global trade in natural gas have blunted Moscow’s weapon, forcing the Russian pipeline monopoly Gazprom to cut prices worldwide and giving Ukraine slightly more bargaining power.

The boom in U.S. shale gas has left gas-exporting countries shopping for other customers. Europe, as it adds terminals to handle liquefied natural gas, will be able to offset its own declining production with supplies from countries such as Qatar. And in 2012, Norway’s Statoil sold more gas to other European nations than Russia’s Gazprom.

“Since the Russian supply cuts in 2006 and 2009, the tables have totally turned,” said Anders Aslund, a fellow at the Peterson Institute of International Economics who has advised Russia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. Aslund said Ukraine once rivaled Germany as Gazprom’s biggest customer. Now, he said, “Gazprom’s challenge is to stay in the Ukrainian market.”

In December, Gazprom said it would discount the price paid by Ukraine, cutting it from about $11.50 per thousand cubic feet to $8.10. But that only brought Ukraine’s prices roughly in line with those being paid in other parts of Europe. Gazprom said it would review the price every quarter, meaning a new reset is possible at the end of March.

As clunky Soviet-era factories and mines have become more efficient or gone out of business, Ukraine’s domestic gas consumption has dropped nearly 40 percent over the past five years, cutting its imports from Russia in half, according to a report by Sberbank Investment Research.

Domestic consumption might drop further if Ukraine trims the generous subsidies it gives households using natural gas, although so few households are paying their bills that it might not matter. “People will go from not paying the lower price to not paying the higher price,” said Thane Gustafson, senior director of Russian energy for the consulting firm IHS CERA.

The gas subsidies and delinquent payments lie at the center of Ukraine’s economic problems and tension with Moscow. Even if residential customers paid up, the Ukrainian state energy company, Naftogaz, would lose money on those sales. That contributes to its failure to keep up payments to Gazprom, which on Feb. 3 said Naftogaz owed $3.3 billion for deliveries over the previous 13 months. Naftogaz’s losses will grow as it sells in the battered local currency and buys gas priced in dollars, Sberbank noted.

“An inefficient and opaque energy sector continues to weigh heavily on public finances and the economy,” the International Monetary Fund said, noting that energy subsidies reached 7.5 percent of Ukraine’s GDP in 2012. “The very low tariffs for residential gas and district heating cover only a fraction of economic costs and encourage one of the highest energy consumption levels in Europe,” the IMF said in December.

Wanting to be paid for NG is a "weapon" in Neocon-speak.

[eastbay]

Godwin's Law. It struck true on the first page of this thread.

[Plantagenet]

Some treaties are just plain silly, best overlooked or ignored. Even if someone drags this dusty old ridiculous document out and waves it around there's probably some fine print, some buried clause, that'll allow Russia to use its armed forces to save Ukraine, too.

Quite so.

As I said, the chance of the US honoring its treaty commitment to defend Ukraine is about zero. Bill Clinton is a known liar anyway----

[radon1]

The Russian Federation Council has ratified the movement of the army units. No decision regarding the movement has been made yet by Putin himself. According to Peskov, Putin's press secretary, Putin's potential decision is conditional on the way the situation develops.

The topic's name is flawed, as it has already been pointed out.