[C8]

I have been following the news somewhat recently and a lot of factors would start to scare me if I were Japanese. China is growing rapidly and becoming more aggressive, undersea oil and methane hydrates could be exploited soon in disputed waters between the nations, and the Japanese population is shrinking rapidly.

Still, China is a big, big customer for Japan and the US military still resides at Okinawa I think- plus the Japanese budget is bad and they can't afford bigger deficits that military expansion would bring.

Japan seems committed to its post war course of pacifism- but their history in the Meiji period shows they can turn on a dime culturally. Could war nationalism return to the land of the rising sun or will a different course emerge?

[sparky]

.
Japan has been re-militarizing for 40 years , prodded and pushed by the U.S.
the process has accelerated around 2001 with change to their constitution , the LDP has eagerly pushed for a higher profile
and a greater military industrial
they took part in several military actions
anti piracy , second Iraki war , Afghanistan and various military maneuvers with the U.S.
also Japanese military personnel has been deployed on the Golan Heights, sent to assist Rwandan refugees and Timorese displaced persons as part of international humanitarian relief operations. Japan also cooperated in international election monitoring activities in Bosnia and Herzegovina (in 1998 and 2000), Kosovo (in 2001) and in Timor-Leste (in 2001 and 2002).

[Plantagenet]

China is bullying Japan and threatening to steal several Japanese islands, along with the submarine territory Japan possesses around those islands.

For decades Japan has relied on its alliance with the US as a key part of its defense planning. But once Japan starts to doubt that the US would actually go to war to defend its territory, then Japan has no choice but to re-militarize in a big way so it can defend itself.

That time has come.


The US has gone wobbly on its pledge to defend Japan---Japan knows it has to re-militarize to defend its own territory from China.

[SilentRunning]

... and the Japanese population is shrinking rapidly.

The Japanese population is shrinking - not rapidly, but rather by about 1 million people a year, as deaths outnumber births. This is less than a 1% reduction per year.

In a time of shrinking resources, sensible countries like Japan should be praised for their farsightedness.

Think of the advantages of a smaller human population - more room, less pollution, less crowding, more nature, etc.

There's over 125 million Japanese. I wouldn't worry about them becoming extinct for quite a while.

[dorlomin]

.
Japan has been re-militarizing for 40 years , prodded and pushed by the U.S.

A country with AEGIS cruisers, F15s and a 20 000 tonne carrier is not 'rearming', but rather fully armed. From the word go from the government it could be a nuclear armed state in months and thermonuclear in a year or two.

[furrybill]

Japan MUST re-militarize to protect itself from rising Chinese influence. Geo-politics aside, don't forget that nationalism/racism in Asia is rampant. Simply put the Chinese would love to wipe the Japanese off the face of the Earth and are biding their time. You can debate whether or not such a feeling is justified [Nanking anyone?] but you can't ignore it.

The scenario that scares me the most is a conflict between the two that goes nuclear since North America would be right in line to receive the fallout.

[C8]

I guess what I meant about re-arming in a big way might be defined as a serious increase in military personnel (50% more than current levels), enough ships and jets to fight in multiple arenas (as in WW2) against a foe that has almost 10 times their population, and a general shift in public consciousness so that a significant civilian sacrifice for military build up is considered necessary. I do understand now that Japan will not want to rely on the US. From what I understand also, the decline rate in population will increase in the coming years- that should scare a lot of Japanese.

I am not a war nationalist and agree that the best thing for the Japanese in the face of PO and AGW is to shrink its population- but my historical studies of Japan convince me that Japanese culture seems to have had the tendency to go through extreme shifts in reaction to outside events. They went from isolationism, to extreme imperialism, to extreme pacifism in the space of 100 years.

[Plantagenet]

my historical studies of Japan convince me that Japanese culture seems to have had the tendency to go through extreme shifts in reaction to outside events. They went from isolationism, to extreme imperialism, to extreme pacifism in the space of 100 years.

There is no reason to believe there is a racial or cultural reason that Japan goes through "extreme shifts". The 20th century produced many such "extreme shifts" in many countries and peoples ----the Brits went from world domination and extreme colonialists to appeasers to militarists to de-colonizers in 100 years. The French went from junior grade colonizers to appeasers to surrender monkeys. The Germans went from royalty and imperialism to defeat to national socialism and racialism to complete defeat to quiet partner of the French in the early EU to dominant economic superpower in the EU now. The Chinese went from weak Empire to weak communists to world dominating economic super-power. The Jews went from weak shtetl dwellers to military dominance around Israel. The Arabs went from feudalistic sheepherders to feudalistic economic superpower and petro power in much less than 100 years.

Japan is going to rearm not because of some racial characteristic, but because some of their territory is sought by China.

[C8]

good point- you have to admit though that the Japanese seem awfully thorough when they do change. I do think culture does play a role, maybe not the major role but it might shape the intensity of the experience. Look at how constant South American nations have been- relatively speaking of course and on average.

Never quite heard the term "surrender monkeys" before, I'll have to meditate on that.

[JV153]

I am not a war nationalist and agree that the best thing for the Japanese in the face of PO and AGW is to shrink its population- but my historical studies of Japan convince me that Japanese culture seems to have had the tendency to go through extreme shifts in reaction to outside events. They went from isolationism, to extreme imperialism, to extreme pacifism in the space of 100 years.

What an interesting observation. So I guess they could suddenly shift again, eh ?

[sparky]

.
The expression "surrender monkeys" is from bart Simpson
it became a good joke under the Bush /Cheyney regime
both these men having dodged the Vietnam draft shamelessly
that seems to be some snide comment on the June 1940 battle of France
Poland , Danemark , Belgium , Holland , Norway ,Yugoslavia , Greece and half of European Russia
got overwhelmed in the same manner , the Germans were good , very good

in Fact France fought hard and lost 360.000 men in two months
there were severe fighting including division level tank battles
above one thousand German planes were shot down ,
the last battles were around Lille when the French army fought a dogged rearguard action
to protect the British at Dunkirk
the British as was their style , ran away ,again
they showed their gratefulness by attacking and sinking
their French allied fleet docked at the naval base of Mers el kebbir
hundreds of French sailors were killed by their ally
it was seen as a stab in the back , Churchill name was dirt
then they fought the French , again in Syria .
many soldiers and officers kept fighting from Britain anyway against their government orders
technically mutineers , to be shot if caught
some fighter pilots went to fight in Stalin Russia rather than fighting alongside those "English bastards"
amongst the last troops fighting in the Ruins of Berlin were the remains of the French SS division Charlemagne within the very international mixed bag of Krukenberg Nordland division
civilians kept the fight in the resistance , torture and/or concentration camp was the usual reward

[Plantagenet]

Japan is going to have to re-arm if they don't want China to steal their territory.

Todays news says China has just announced a new military air defense zone that includes a slice of Japanese territory. China says that any plane entering that zone ---including the Japanese air force---- must check in Chinese authorities and obey their instructions....

IMHO, Japan isn't going to just let China steal their islands.


IMHO the Japan self defense force will act to defend Japanese territory against a takeover by China, even if their major ally---the USA---refuses to help.

[KaiserJeep]

sparky, where did you learn about WW2? Who taught you, and using what texts?

Because a lot of what you just spouted about WW2 was nonsense. As was your comments about Bush/Cheney "dodging the draft" for Vietnam.

FYI during Vietnam, Dick Cheyney was White House Chief of Staff, first for Richard Nixon, later for Gerald Ford, and far too old to be drafted. G W Bush was a jet fighter pilot in the Texas Air National Guard, which like the National Guard in all 50 US states, is a Federal military reserve organization that can only be mobilized for a conflict with another country by orders of the President of the USA. Vietnam was a war fought with regular US military, not reservists.

[ralfy]

Sparky is right. One may consider works like Johnson's Blowback for some details.

[dolanbaker]

Sparky - The British army were withdrawn to protect the British mainland from a German invasion.
Such an invasion was a certainty, but Hitler decided to go east instead!

[dorlomin]

the British as was their style , ran away ,again

The Marne, Somme, Cambria, Operation Michael, the 100 day offensive, Normandy, the Bulge.

Its hard to run away from your grave in France.

[dorlomin]

I guess what I meant about re-arming in a big way might be defined as a serious increase in military personnel (50% more than current levels), enough ships and jets to fight in multiple arenas (as in WW2) against a foe that has almost 10 times their population, and a general shift in public consciousness so that a significant civilian sacrifice for military build up is considered necessary. I do understand now that Japan will not want to rely on the US. From what I understand also, the decline rate in population will increase in the coming years- that should scare a lot of Japanese.

The strategic position of Japan vis a vis China is pretty safe. As an island on the edge Eurasia it is similar to the traditional position of the UK. It merely needs sufficient naval and air force to deter a credible invasion threat. It has no expansionist plans so has no need for a large standing army. A powerful antisubmarine force, a reasonable submarine arm, good air defences and a credible blue water navy are all it really needs.

China is already making its neighbours very nervous and it belligerence is more likely to draw Japan, Vietnam, ROK, Philippines, Indonesia and even India and Russia into an informal alliance. The technocrats in Beijing do not have all the cards on the table as some seem to think. And its assumptions about its role in its periphery has already sent Vietnam into warming its relationship with Washington.

[Plantagenet]

The strategic position of Japan vis a vis China is pretty safe. As an island on the edge Eurasia it is similar to the traditional position of the UK. It merely needs sufficient naval and air force to deter a credible invasion threat.

Japan isn't facing an invasion of the Japanese home islands. Japan is facing an attempt by China to take over some small unpopulated islands about 800 miles southwest of the main Japanese Islands.

Just today Japan rejected the claim by China that it controls the airspace over the islands. The stage is now set for China and Japan to sort out who actually controls the airspace (and perhaps we'll even see how the latest Chinese jets match up with US-built F-15s).

[sparky]

.
Richard Cheyney received five draft deferments
G.W. Bush defending Texas from the Vietcong air force was very brave , incidentally I quite like the guy
at least Kerry fought in Vietnam .

The Chinese don't want to invade Japan , they want to control the sea lanes in their neighborhood
they want to set one of their long held strategic goal , the first islands chain
from the horse mouth
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90786/8406377.html
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ ... fshore.htm

"PRC military theorists conceive of two island "chains" as forming a geographic basis for China's maritime defensive perimeter. The precise boundaries of these chains have never been officially defined by the Chinese government, and so are subject to some specualtion. By one account, China's "green water" extends eastward in the Pacific Ocean out to the first island chain, which is formed by the Aleutians, the Kuriles, Japan's archipelago, the Ryukyus, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Borneo."

There is also the second islands line , further out , pretty much the West Pacific entire and the straits from Malacca to New Guinea



@ KaiserJeep , a life time of interest in history , extensive reading , discussing and cross-checking
special interest in the Easter front 1941 1945 , the logistics are the key
yeah, I know stuff , no everything but certainly more than most .
as for the British , they were the champions of getting other people to do the hard fighting for them
including Canadians , Australians , S.Africans , Kiwis other colonials and the odd Irishmen enlisted in their regiments

-I am unaware of British forces fighting on the Marne ,
at the time marshall Joffre begged them to hold some front in Flanders , they wanted to evacuate .

-the Somme was a late diversion attack to help the French fighting the biggest battle of the war at Verdun
it lasted 8 months of uninterrupted slugging .

-I suppose Cambria is the town of Cambrai , the first successful use of tanks
it followed the disastrous French summer offensive of the Chemin des Dames
where , French troops charged headlong for a week , walking over the bodies of the previous days assault

-Normandy was forced on Churchill by Roosevelt at the Tehran conference , he fought tooth and nail not to do it

-the bulge was an American fight ,
at the same time the British were dissolving regiments , claiming lack of manpower ,
which was untrue . they had 3 millions men in the rear services

Kaiser , if you have some refutation for my previous post , please , I'll be happy to discuss it off forum .

[dolanbaker]

for the British , they were the champions of getting other people to do the hard fighting for them

The war memorials in just about every English town & village tell a different story.
The village I lived in had a population of 2000 in 1910 and there are nearly 400 names on the memorial!