[SeaGypsy]

I am opening this thread to see how much interest there is currently in discussion a perennial subject here at peakoil.com.

The globalists have decided we are all about roughly worth the same amount of goodies per day of work. That's you, me, Joe 6 pack down the street and China Yu and India Raj. No real difference in value, no justification for non wage equity. The currency numbers don't matter, what matters is the amount of essential commodities allotted each worker. We want maximum crank for minimum input. Exactly like striving for an ever more efficient motor. Sooner or later redundancy catches up with any design mode and all you can cut is manufacturing costs. Real wages are on the chopping block.

So my question boils down to this:
When 2 people meet at the same place, but for one it has been an upwards mobility, the other a downward; who has the advantage?

Myself and others here who are regularly in Asia agree the whole place seems to be humming with vibrant economic enthusiasm. Endless stories about the imminent bubble bursting in China/ India/ SE Asia have not come to fruition despite any amount of wishfull thinking in high wage countries.

I am not a cornucopian. I believe the meeting point will definitely be a lot closer to current average Asian levels of consumption than American.

When you have lived hard all your life and things get just a little better, a little easier, one of the 14 people in your shack in the backblocks of Surabaya gets a menial job in Beijing making $100 a week, that is a big deal and puts a shine on things.

When you have hocked your life to the eyeballs to get your game hero children through useless degrees to end up competing for the same job as the guy from Surabaya... that is a whole different story.

I am very open on this thread to projections of when and where the meeting point will be. Let's use China and the USA as our benchmarks.

I know for a fact right now a skilled Yu is worth $100- $200 a week for 60 hours (wage only).

I have on good authority that a skilled Joe is worth that a day.

Meaning currently there is a real gap of roughly 500%.

Hanging onto this gap is too expensive. It is not going to happen.
Parity will be in this space.

I am going to guess that the meeting point will come before/ around 2020 and that it will be at around $200 a week in current $USD.

During the same period of time all fuels are going to average about 10-15% real price increase. At the end of this stage of globalism's development, wherever your factory is in the world, you will earn a certain number of BTUs or eqivalent.

-Asians are ok with the above scenario. Most think it's about right, about fair and a positive. We all know it's not like that with us.

[Loki]

Yes, most of us in the US and elsewhere in the developed world will be getting poorer in the next few decades. And many Asians will be getting richer, at least for a time. These phenomena are weakly linked via globalist trade policies, but one is not necessarily dependent on the other.

Short-term I think peak oil, domestic Ponzi schemes (housing, finance, etc.), and governmental insolvency will cause the demise of the US economy. Long-term we'll have to deal with the climate catastrophe. Globalism just exacerbates these problems.

But I agree with your main point about harmonization of American and Asian wages. Not much fun for us, but I'm sure the average working Wang is happy about it.

[bochen280]

Peak Oil is a population problem. TPTB will let BAU until it can't anymore and then the bifurcation that results will be that of population correction back to sustainable levels...a resetting of the clock.

Mother nature has a way of taking care of things, whether it is war, disease, famine, climate crisis, peak oil, etc.

It is not about wages and labor anymore... machines can already do basically anything a human can do.. it is about per capita consumption and total population.

[SeaGypsy]

Loki, you got it. I think you are one of the most ready here.
Etheris, this particular thread isn't about TEOTWAWKI, we sometimes have other discussions focusing on the median term outlook. This is one of those.

[SeaGypsy]

It seems the consensus is that the USA will somehow muddle through all this calamity, according to the bulk of the esteemed board of PO.com (4 possible futures thread). Parity is coming but it won't be TEOTWAWKI but something else. I find it interesting that there are few realists thinking a 'zombie' stage lasts any longer than a few weeks.

More interesting is: what does the USA look like in 10 years if I am correct and parity comes at around the level of current Chinese household consumption? Since the US is not going to become Rwanda, what will it become with it's alloted shares in what's left of 'everything' before the age of recycling firmly takes over?

As an outsider to the US' but with many family there, I find questions about the future of the place fascinating. Americans are not just good at toting guns. There is probably the richest/ one of the richest stores of folk knowledge, along with much of the globe's agrible land, plenty of transition fuels. It looks like the USA may end up doing ok. This contrasts heavily with external casual observations, from the same kind of thinkers.

[radon]

There is ...much of the globe's agrible land, plenty of transition fuels.

That is why there will always be disparity, first shrinking, then increasing again.

Knowledge leaks.

[Corella]

When 2 people meet at the same place, but for one it has been an upwards mobility, the other a downward; who has the advantage?

At least & hopefully both?! However (and so far) globalization had such effect. Things which i think to be put in account:

- Economists like disparity for giving the business opportunities
- Economists also like more participants consuming (to where could disparities probably move?)
- In order to find joint solutions for global problems we need harmonization
- A certain wealth seems to be the only hope to get away from OP

[Windmills]

The price of transporation fuel will affect the rate at which the wage disparity is changed, as we all know. It's also possible that wage parity will never be realized because the process of achieving it is cut short by the rising cost of shipping. I'm curious to see projections concerning at what point shipping costs overtake and reverse the wage gradient. Will it happen soon enough to salvage a palatable standard of living in western countries? Also, jobs having been leaving the USA for at least 40 years because of the global wage gradient. Why the prediction that it'll all be wrapped up in the next ten?

[rangerone314]

How much do Yo and Raj pay for food? For a plot of land?

[SeaGypsy]

How much do Yo and Raj pay for food? For a plot of land?

A lot less for food.
Average SE Asia retail pricing for food is heavily related to fuel prices and water availability for the season, with rice being the main crop. Plenty of rain at the right times, minimal pumping required, a kilo of rice will retail for around 70 cents US. In a dry or flood year, this price will go up to about $1.00.

Vegetables and fruit tend to travel far less and have a much lower labour component to pricing, rents are low, food handling standards non existent. On average I would say vegetables (in season local/ as 98% of the population eat) go for 50c a kilo.

Meat is comparatively very expensive. This is due mostly to the large unavoidable inputs which are globally priced. If you have to buy pig or chicken pellets, fish food etc. you pay the same price as a French or Australian or Canadian farm/ you have to charge close to the same as they do for your product. This is of course why the Asian diet contains 10-20% of the protein of Western diets.

Countries vary a lot in terms of land prices. There are usually multiple methods of holding land, not simply lease or purchase. Titling systems are often loose outside city areas and laisse faire spontaneous arrangements without paperwork are common, along with government allowance for 'gray areas' in the law. If you want a clean Torrens title on fertile accessible land , near a port, it might cost you more than double a similarly productive situation in the mainland USA or Australia. A really nice established farm can cost a serious fortune anywhere in South Asia, that's why they are buying farms here in Oz.

However, under other, more common arrangements are very cheap.
Leasing a plot of land as described, paid in cash to a local, $100 an hectare /annum (2.45 Acre) can secure a fixed 30 year lease in many places.
Building regulations in rural areas being virtually non existent, methods always adapted to using what is about (Bamboo/ straw/ light timbers/ stone/ clay/ cement lime/ lahar etc) and labour costing $2-$5 a man day depending on skill level means a family home can be built to a reasonable standard for $1000. This is something I would live in. Many live in much less. My 2 bedroom cottage on the beach in the Philippines (very nice safe area, very expensive per meter land price) costs me $100 a month to lease. I have a 400 meter vegie plot lease up the river, 5km from the coast, with option to buy/ this costs me $30 a month.

Fuels and fertilizers are the same price in Asia as the USA, within a 20% band and depending on the specific countries tax regime. Electricity is over 20 cents a kwh. This is why cars are not taking off the way scooters and ultralight compact trucks are. Why everyone uses compact bulbs. Why the food mile average is about 10. Buses and trains are full 24/7. Roads and general infrastructure is built in catch up mode, with China being the only exception in Asia to this rule. Which brings up another matter.

I am damn sure China plans to migrate between a quarter and half a billion SE Asians into their currently empty, purpose built industrial cities.
I personally know of 7 family friends who have taken jobs in China in the last 12 months. There is a big shift going on in the entire economic dynamic of SE Asia and it is all cirlcing China. India sees itself as an equal of sorts, a competitor, but anyone who goes to both countries knows this is a farce.

[bochen280]

The gender imbalance in China (male/female ratio) means that there will be a lot of Chinese men in need of womens. As Yo's income rises and Joe Six Pack paycheck falls and they meet somewhere in between... Joe is not going to like the fact that in addition to economic warfare and his job getting off-shored overseas, he now has to complete against a Chinese guy for supply to his own female kind in his own back yard. This is going to give a whole new meaning to "protectionism".

But actually I think the fact that China has so much more population compared to America means there will likely always be parity in terms of per capita income... the average American will always have it better than the average Chinese. I just don't ever see the average Jo coming down to the average Yo's level (or the average Yo rising to the average Jo's living standards, however which way you want to see it) There are natural and national stratification that cannot be avoided. Sure we might reach an equilibrium, but its not with Joe making the same as Yo. But because of the sheer fact that there will be so many Yoes... there will always be enough well-to-do Yoes to seriously complete with the Joes for access to beautiful white women. After all, 90% of the men compete amongst themselves for access to the top 10% of women (or something analogous to that). There doesn't need to be that many well-to-do Asians living in America for them to pose a significant mating challenge to the average Joe Six Pack. I think losing your job to Yo is humiliating enough, but losing your girl as well? That will be the last straw that breaks the camel's back.

In terms of total supply of beautiful women in the world, peak oil will not change that dynamic. (assuming no drastic dieoff soon) From an evolutionary standpoint it will pretty much remain the same and the water always finds it natural level no matter what. There is always much more plentiful supply of exceedingly beautiful women than there are extremely rich or wealthy men (this is true in ANY society and at any energy consumption level) so bad economy (absent TEOTWAWKI) will actually not make it harder to score good looking girls...(and it certainty won't ever diminish the supply or ratio of beautiful women) in fact in certain cases it makes it easier... peak oil does not mean peak beautiful women... not until we start running out of food... and even then the beautiful women will be spared... it is the men that are expendable and the first to go.

[rangerone314]

The gender imbalance in China (male/female ratio) means that there will be a lot of Chinese men in need of womens. As Yo's income rises and Joe Six Pack paycheck falls and they meet somewhere in between... Joe is not going to like the fact that in addition to economic warfare and his job getting off-shored overseas, he now has to complete against a Chinese guy for supply to his own female kind in his own back yard. This is going to give a whole new meaning to "protectionism".

Seriously?

I've studied this interracial mating thing; I find both evolutionary biology and sexual selection fascinating.
There are a lot of white women who flock to black guys and only a small number of white guys who choose black women. Likewise, there are a lot of Asian women who flock to white guys and only a small number of Asian guys who end up with white women. I've seen interviews with Asian women as to why they don't date Asian men, and they are similar to the reasons why black-dating white women don't date white men. (basically its a He-Man vs Pee-Wee Herman kind of thing)

There is a clear continuum of preferences, and Asians and blacks are at the opposite ends from each other.

Similarly, doing a search of porn videos online I found only 2 videos where an Asian male is with a black female, and this was after a ludicrous amount of searching specifically for that, simply because I was curious if it had ever happened in human history. (one video was promoted as "the first one on the Internet"). There must be hundreds of videos of black guys with Asian women, and thousands of videos of white guys with Asian women.

[SeaGypsy]

I have done similar 'research' RAOFLMAO.
I am yet to find any such thing as indigenous porn. Like Genuine Aboriginal, be it African or Australian, Latin American. Nor has any ever convinced me they are genuine Arabic porn.
Porn, like prostitution, seems to be most prevalent in mixing pot cultures, the longer the mixing the more sex in public. Isolated cultures, wherever they are, tend to have extremely strong taboos on sexual propriety.

[Cog]

Thank you men for undertaking this valuable research for Peak Oil. Its sacrifice like this that makes this board what it is.

[SeaGypsy]

Someone has to put in the hard yards, even if the pay sucks equilaterally

[JJ]

+1 cog

good topic, Chris

[rangerone314]

Thank you men for undertaking this valuable research for Peak Oil. Its sacrifice like this that makes this board what it is.

No thanks are necessary; it was tough going but a sacrifice I was willing to make!

[Narz]

Thank you men for undertaking this valuable research for Peak Oil. Its sacrifice like this that makes this board what it is.

Just when I thought this place was getting boring.

[bochen280]

I am opening this thread to see how much interest there is currently in discussion a perennial subject here at peakoil.com.

The globalists have decided we are all about roughly worth the same amount of goodies per day of work. That's you, me, Joe 6 pack down the street and China Yu and India Raj. No real difference in value, no justification for non wage equity. The currency numbers don't matter, what matters is the amount of essential commodities allotted each worker. We want maximum crank for minimum input. Exactly like striving for an ever more efficient motor. Sooner or later redundancy catches up with any design mode and all you can cut is manufacturing costs. Real wages are on the chopping block.

So my question boils down to this:
When 2 people meet at the same place, but for one it has been an upwards mobility, the other a downward; who has the advantage?

Myself and others here who are regularly in Asia agree the whole place seems to be humming with vibrant economic enthusiasm. Endless stories about the imminent bubble bursting in China/ India/ SE Asia have not come to fruition despite any amount of wishfull thinking in high wage countries.

I am not a cornucopian. I believe the meeting point will definitely be a lot closer to current average Asian levels of consumption than American.

When you have lived hard all your life and things get just a little better, a little easier, one of the 14 people in your shack in the backblocks of Surabaya gets a menial job in Beijing making $100 a week, that is a big deal and puts a shine on things.

When you have hocked your life to the eyeballs to get your game hero children through useless degrees to end up competing for the same job as the guy from Surabaya... that is a whole different story.

I am very open on this thread to projections of when and where the meeting point will be. Let's use China and the USA as our benchmarks.

I know for a fact right now a skilled Yu is worth $100- $200 a week for 60 hours (wage only).

I have on good authority that a skilled Joe is worth that a day.

Meaning currently there is a real gap of roughly 500%.

Hanging onto this gap is too expensive. It is not going to happen.
Parity will be in this space.

I am going to guess that the meeting point will come before/ around 2020 and that it will be at around $200 a week in current $USD.

During the same period of time all fuels are going to average about 10-15% real price increase. At the end of this stage of globalism's development, wherever your factory is in the world, you will earn a certain number of BTUs or eqivalent.

-Asians are ok with the above scenario. Most think it's about right, about fair and a positive. We all know it's not like that with us.

It ain't gonna happen like that:

http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/10/news/ec ... index.html